"Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:07 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:He's fun to watch when he's on a roll, but he can't hit lefties, can't pinch hit, and needs to be replaced defensively in close games. He's a great option for being a DH/platoon OF in the AL.


That all arguably applies to Castellanos, too, except against righties.



Schwarber against lefties - .195/.306/.351/.657


Castellanos against righties - .268/.315/.450/.765
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby muntjack » Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:21 pm

Schwarber has a .775 OPS against LHP this season. He has only 353 career PAs against them. Sporadic PAs. He’s improved each year. The book is not written.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby mul21 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:10 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:He's fun to watch when he's on a roll, but he can't hit lefties, can't pinch hit, and needs to be replaced defensively in close games. He's a great option for being a DH/platoon OF in the AL.


That all arguably applies to Castellanos, too, except against righties.


I'd argue that there's a lot of unknown with Castellanos just with him not playing half his games in the cavernous Detroit park, especially with his penchant for doubles and fly balls that could turn into HRs.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:23 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:He's fun to watch when he's on a roll, but he can't hit lefties, can't pinch hit, and needs to be replaced defensively in close games. He's a great option for being a DH/platoon OF in the AL.


That all arguably applies to Castellanos, too, except against righties.



Schwarber against lefties - .195/.306/.351/.657


Castellanos against righties - .268/.315/.450/.765


You post this like those are good numbers.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:25 pm

mul21 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:He's fun to watch when he's on a roll, but he can't hit lefties, can't pinch hit, and needs to be replaced defensively in close games. He's a great option for being a DH/platoon OF in the AL.


That all arguably applies to Castellanos, too, except against righties.


I'd argue that there's a lot of unknown with Castellanos just with him not playing half his games in the cavernous Detroit park, especially with his penchant for doubles and fly balls that could turn into HRs.


His away numbers in 1795 PA: .263 .311 .457 .768

He's cool and it's awesome what he's doing with the Cubs, and maybe he/they have figured something out, but signing him as an everyday player is taking a reasonably large risk, especially given the already shaky at the VERY best setup of the Cubs' OF.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:42 pm

I think for me the Schwarber question is really a juiced ball question. If you think the 2019 ball is the new normal, that makes his prodigious power much less valuable and he simply doesn't do enough other stuff to make him more than an average player. And that comes with some pretty annoying limitations like his defensive range and his trouble with lefties. But if you think we're going to go back to the no-juice 2014 ball, or more likely the 2018 sort-of-juiced ball, I think his power will take less of a hit than 99% of guys and his value rises commensurately.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby squally1313 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:06 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:I still think the best move is to sign Castellanos and listen to offers for Schwarber. He's fun to watch when he's on a roll, but he can't hit lefties, can't pinch hit, and needs to be replaced defensively in close games. He's a great option for being a DH/platoon OF in the AL.

Why can’t he pinch hit?



His track record as a PH is atrocious.


Is that a thing that is somehow predictive going forward compared to his total numbers?
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:10 pm

A pinch hitter is really no different than a player being traded from a team out of contention (the bench) to a team in contention (the lineup) so really we should all expect them to get better when pinch hitting.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:17 pm

Castellanos has a .607 OPS as a pinch hitter, can't keep him.

Rizzo is at .478, might be time to put him out to pasture too.

Baez is at .542, definitely pump the breaks on his extension.

Bryant is at .583, the gutless choking dog.

Thankfully, the MLB leader in pinch hitting the last 3 years(min 10 PA of course) is going to be available, so we can snap up Adam Jones and fill that gaping hole in the roster.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:21 pm

Even Edith Cox would be embarrassed by worrying about PH numbers, B2B. What the hell.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby javy knows my name » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:24 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:I still think the best move is to sign Castellanos and listen to offers for Schwarber. He's fun to watch when he's on a roll, but he can't hit lefties, can't pinch hit, and needs to be replaced defensively in close games. He's a great option for being a DH/platoon OF in the AL.

Why can’t he pinch hit?



His track record as a PH is atrocious.


Significantly better than your track record as a poster
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:43 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
That all arguably applies to Castellanos, too, except against righties.



Schwarber against lefties - .195/.306/.351/.657


Castellanos against righties - .268/.315/.450/.765


You post this like those are good numbers.



They're way better than Schwarber's.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:45 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Castellanos has a .607 OPS as a pinch hitter, can't keep him.

Rizzo is at .478, might be time to put him out to pasture too.

Baez is at .542, definitely pump the breaks on his extension.

Bryant is at .583, the gutless choking dog.

Thankfully, the MLB leader in pinch hitting the last 3 years(min 10 PA of course) is going to be available, so we can snap up Adam Jones and fill that gaping hole in the roster.


The guy I would go after to replace Zobrist and pinch hit is Howie Kendrick.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:48 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Even Edith Cox would be embarrassed by worrying about PH numbers, B2B. What the hell.



My point is that while he's great at what he does (mash HRs against RH pitching), he has many flaws - lefties, defense, etc.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Banedon » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:49 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Castellanos has a .607 OPS as a pinch hitter, can't keep him.

Rizzo is at .478, might be time to put him out to pasture too.

Baez is at .542, definitely pump the breaks on his extension.

Bryant is at .583, the gutless choking dog.

Thankfully, the MLB leader in pinch hitting the last 3 years(min 10 PA of course) is going to be available, so we can snap up Adam Jones and fill that gaping hole in the roster.


The guy I would go after to replace Zobrist and pinch hit is Howie Kendrick.


What does that have to do with Schwarber?
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:53 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:

Schwarber against lefties - .195/.306/.351/.657


Castellanos against righties - .268/.315/.450/.765


You post this like those are good numbers.



They're way better than Schwarber's.


THEY'RE STILL BAD NUMBERS.

And they're against the type of pitcher players see a lot more of, so how are you possibly seeing this as an argument in favor of keeping Castellanos and getting rid of Schwarber?

Schwarber in his career against righties: .239 .344 .515 .859 (1435 PA)

Castellanos, again, in his career against righties: .268 .315 .450 .765 (2718 PA)

Unless you're buying in to some kind of Hendry-like idea that you need to try and make the team better at hitting lefties, what the hell are you even talking about.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:54 pm

Assuming the Cubs need to make trades to fill some of their holes, Schwarber and Caratini are the only somewhat valuable assets on the roster. I don't think any of the core 4 will be traded, so that leaves the top prospects (Amaya, Hoerner, etc.) or players on the roster.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby squally1313 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:56 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Even Edith Cox would be embarrassed by worrying about PH numbers, B2B. What the hell.



My point is that while he's great at what he does (mash HRs against RH pitching), he has many flaws - lefties, defense, etc.


So now we're dropping the whole pinch hitting thing into an all encompassing "etc" huh? Telling.

Castellanos hits lefties better than Schwarber hits righties. Castellanos hits righties better than Schwarber hits lefties. Schwarber has been much better defensively than Castellanos. How you want to weigh all those is up to you. Also worth noting that Schwarber for the next 2 years will cost about as much as Castellnos for about 4 months.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:57 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Even Edith Cox would be embarrassed by worrying about PH numbers, B2B. What the hell.



My point is that while he's great at what he does (mash HRs against RH pitching), he has many flaws - lefties, defense, etc.


"Besides him being good at hitting the prevelant type of pitcher in the game, he's simply not that good, you guys."

And Castellanos is HUGELY worse defensively. And, since you brought up the PH nonsense, as a PH he has a .250 .294 .313 .607 line.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:00 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Castellanos has a .607 OPS as a pinch hitter, can't keep him.

Rizzo is at .478, might be time to put him out to pasture too.

Baez is at .542, definitely pump the breaks on his extension.

Bryant is at .583, the gutless choking dog.

Thankfully, the MLB leader in pinch hitting the last 3 years(min 10 PA of course) is going to be available, so we can snap up Adam Jones and fill that gaping hole in the roster.


The guy I would go after to replace Zobrist and pinch hit is Howie Kendrick.

With the year he’s having I’m guessing Kendrick. gets a near everyday job somewhere next year and I don’t think we’d give it to him/hope we’d aim higher for an everyday guy as idk how much of what he’s doing is real. The goal should be to find the next 2019 Kendrick (or 2018 Descalso) on the cheap before they have a big year like this instead of paying for the guy after he has the big year that may be flukey for a bench/role spot.
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:04 pm

Like, why would anyone look at the Cubs OF and think that signing a guy like Castellanos should lead to them getting rid of Schwarber instead of getting rid of Heyward by any means necessary?
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:05 pm

Bertz wrote:I think for me the Schwarber question is really a juiced ball question. If you think the 2019 ball is the new normal, that makes his prodigious power much less valuable and he simply doesn't do enough other stuff to make him more than an average player. And that comes with some pretty annoying limitations like his defensive range and his trouble with lefties. But if you think we're going to go back to the no-juice 2014 ball, or more likely the 2018 sort-of-juiced ball, I think his power will take less of a hit than 99% of guys and his value rises commensurately.


This is underselling his approach. He's cut his Ks again, walks a ton, and is hitting with more power...Without looking at anything else those are breakout ingredients
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:08 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bertz wrote:I think for me the Schwarber question is really a juiced ball question. If you think the 2019 ball is the new normal, that makes his prodigious power much less valuable and he simply doesn't do enough other stuff to make him more than an average player. And that comes with some pretty annoying limitations like his defensive range and his trouble with lefties. But if you think we're going to go back to the no-juice 2014 ball, or more likely the 2018 sort-of-juiced ball, I think his power will take less of a hit than 99% of guys and his value rises commensurately.


This is underselling his approach. He's cut his Ks again, walks a ton, and is hitting with more power...Without looking at anything else those are breakout ingredients


Yeah, dude is hitting for the whole package right now. Not to harp on Heyward (well, no; let's harp on him), but THERE'S the guy clearly benefiting from the juiced ball and absolutely nothing else.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:23 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bertz wrote:I think for me the Schwarber question is really a juiced ball question. If you think the 2019 ball is the new normal, that makes his prodigious power much less valuable and he simply doesn't do enough other stuff to make him more than an average player. And that comes with some pretty annoying limitations like his defensive range and his trouble with lefties. But if you think we're going to go back to the no-juice 2014 ball, or more likely the 2018 sort-of-juiced ball, I think his power will take less of a hit than 99% of guys and his value rises commensurately.


This is underselling his approach. He's cut his Ks again, walks a ton, and is hitting with more power...Without looking at anything else those are breakout ingredients


If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular.
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Re: "Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

Postby squally1313 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:27 pm

Bertz wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bertz wrote:I think for me the Schwarber question is really a juiced ball question. If you think the 2019 ball is the new normal, that makes his prodigious power much less valuable and he simply doesn't do enough other stuff to make him more than an average player. And that comes with some pretty annoying limitations like his defensive range and his trouble with lefties. But if you think we're going to go back to the no-juice 2014 ball, or more likely the 2018 sort-of-juiced ball, I think his power will take less of a hit than 99% of guys and his value rises commensurately.


This is underselling his approach. He's cut his Ks again, walks a ton, and is hitting with more power...Without looking at anything else those are breakout ingredients


If this last month+ is a real breakout, then absolutely. More likely though is it's just a nice hot streak. He's cut his K rate to 25% this year, which is great, but if homeruns continue to be as cheap in 2020 as they have been in 2019, at 25% his offensive ceiling is still limited to like a 120 wrc+. That's certainly nothing to complain about, but from a left fielder with his defense that's merely a solid regular.


Maybe I'm not thinking about this right, but I don't see how the juiced ball really impacts his value relative to other players. Everyone is playing with it. He was 37th in baseball in home runs last year, this year he's getting more ABs and he's 20th. Everyone else is hitting more home runs, but so is he, so I don't get how his value drops. To use non-specific numbers, hitting 125% of the league average is equally valuable is the league average is 15 or 20.
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