Cubs Predictions for 2017

[davell]

Time to take a shot at what you see happening this year.....

Our rotation takes a step back. Lester struggles a bit without Ross. Hendricks is our best starter. Jake's control is iffy and takes him down to where he's not going to see 100 mill in the off season. Lackey gives us reasons to dislike him. Those 4 combine for slightly under 100 starts, as injuries actually happen. Hendricks is our only starter that puts up a sub 3 ERA.

Montgomery shows that he's a longterm rotation piece, once hes put in the rotation for good. Outperforms Lester in the 2nd half. Anderson gets 15+ starts and is solid enough. Butler looks great in Iowa and is decent in the majors in September, giving him a shot at being a 2018 rotation piece.

Rondon and Davis are a great back end of the pen and stay healthy. Strop struggles, Carl is OK, but control is an issue. Uehara is a disappointment. We need to trade for a lefty at midseason. Pena winds up being a decent arm for us.

Contreras is the best C in the NL behind Posey. Bryzzo is Bryzzo. Russell and Javy combine for 50+ HR's and are our fulltime middle infield, outside of injuries. Zobrist starts to age a bit and loses some pop, but still gets on base.

Schwarber is below average in LF by the metrics, but seems OK out there. Hits lefties decently and is a true offensive force as our leadoff hitter. CF is a weak spot all year. Heyward puts up a 725 OPS.

Szczur is dealt before the season for an arm in the low minors.

Focus on the deadline is bullpen and CF. We trade for Lorenzo Cain and Sean Doolittle at the deadline.

Cubs win 101 games and go back to back. Beat the Mets in the NLDS, beat the Dodgers in the NLCS, and the Red Sox in the World Series.

Eloy finishes strong in Tennessee, making a 2018 debut a realistic goal. Happ is good and is a good bet to be dealt next off season. Candelario helps net us Cain, with Almora. Hatch and Caratini, with Grimm, net us Doolittle.

Clifton is a realistic rotation piece by early 2018. Cease looks like a closer. De La Cruz is very solid and is firmly inside top 100 lists, as is the mythical Albertos.

Cubs sign Hector Mendoza and he's in MB most of the year.

Cubs top 100 guys on most lists.....Eloy, Happ, De La Cruz, Albertos, and Clifton. Cubs draft a college and HS arm at 27 and 30.

Biggest risers in the system are Aramis Ademan and Bailey Clark.

What do you guys have?

[Cubswin11]

Almora, Hatch, Caritini and Grimm for Doolittle? No thanks.

Anyways I will predict the following

- The rotation and offense rank inside the top 5-7 in most meaningful categories

- The rotation stays as healthy as last year. Arrieta has a huge year (we get more god mode Jake than just really good Jake), Lester and Arrieta both finish at over 5 WAR.

- Lackey and Hendricks have ERA's over 3 but under 3.6

- Montgomery sucks in the rotation but moves back to being effective in the bullpen. Anderson, when healthy, is very solid in the rotation

- Anderson and Butler combine for 20+ quality starts, we also have 4+ turns through the rotation of using 6 starters

- The bullpen is one of the best in MLB again. One of Davis or Rondon completely blow out and we get very little from them all year. CJ is the best RP all year

- Defense is historically great again

- Contreras leads MLB catchers in WAR

- Javy remains a complete mess vs RHP and overall stays under 5% BB rate and at a ~25% K rate. Defense is still transcendent but he remains a platoon/defensive replacement at best

- Jay and Almora combine for a higher WAR than Fowler, Almora rates as one of the best defensive OF in MLB

- Schwarber, although making it look awkward at times, does fine defensively in LF. Can make an argument he's our best hitter by middle of the year

- Bryant gets over 8 WAR again, finishes inside top 3 in MLB, and hits over 40 HR

- Russell hits over 30 HR and finishes top 5 in MLB for SS WAR

- Rizzo repeats what he's done the last 3 years

- Zobrist, though playing only around 130-140 games to stay fresh, remains his normal solid self

- Heyward produces around what he did in 2013, .250/.350/.430 with mid-teens HR

- We win the division pretty easily again and win 103 games

- Eloy is a consensus top 10 prospect by end of the year, Happ also has a solid year and becomes a top 30 prospect

- All of Cease, Albertos, De La Cruz and Clifton continue to make progress and we, gasp, have legit pitching prospects

- Paredes looks like he could become a monster and is the biggest riser

- Jeimer continues to be solid and is traded at the deadline

- Zagunis taps into a little more power and continues to be an on-base machine, looks like he could be a bench bat for 2018 and a platoon option in LF/RF with Schwarber and Heyward

[Brian]

only prediction I'll make is KB gets 50 dongs.

[davell]

Almora, Hatch, Caritini and Grimm for Doolittle? No thanks.

Anyways I will predict the following

- The rotation stays as healthy as last year. Arrieta has a huge year (we get more god mode Jake than just really good Jake), Lester and Arrieta both finish at over 5 WAR.

- Lackey and Hendricks have ERA's over 3 but under 3.6

- Montgomery sucks in the rotation but moves back to being effective in the bullpen. Anderson, when healthy, is very solid in the rotation

- Anderson and Butler combine for 20+ quality starts out of the 5 spot in the rotation

- The bullpen is one of the best in MLB again. One of Davis or Rondon completely blow out and we get very little from them all year. CJ is the best RP all year

- Defense is historically great again

- Contreras leads MLB catchers in WAR

- Javy remains a complete mess vs RHP and overall stays under 5% BB rate and at a ~25% K rate. Defense is still transcendent but he remains a platoon/defensive replacement at best

- Jay and Almora combine for a higher WAR than Fowler, Almora rates as one of the best defensive OF in MLB

- Schwarber, although making it look awkward at times does fine defensively in LF, can make an argument he's our best hitter by middle of the year

- Bryant gets over 8 WAR again, finishes inside top 3 in MLB, and hits over 40 HR

- Russell hits over 30 HR and finishes top 5 in MLB for SS WAR

- Rizzo repeats what he's done the last 3 years

- Zobrist, though playing only around 130-140 games to stay fresh, remains his normal solid self

- Heyward produces around what he did in 2013, .250/.350/.430 with mid-teens HR

- We win the division pretty easily again and win 103 games

- Eloy is a consensus top 10 prospect by end of the year, Happ also has a solid year and becomes a top 30 prospect

- All of Cease, Albertos, De La Cruz and Clifton continue to make progress and we, gasp, have legit pitching prospects

- Paredes looks like he could become a monster and is the biggest riser

- Jeimer continues to be solid and is traded at the deadline

- Zagunis taps into a little more power and continues to be an on-base machine, looks like he could be a bench bat for 2018 and a platoon option in LF/RF with Schwarber and Heyward

Almora is in the Cain trade.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

only prediction I'll make is KB gets 50 dongs.

jesus, he's not Cindy Sandberg

[NOLA]

only prediction I'll make is KB gets 50 dongs.

jesus, he's not Cindy Sandberg

[Tim]

Let's see....

- Contreras is a monster both in his numbers and how much his energy irritates opposing fans
- Rizzo continues to get better and better
- Bryant further reduces his strikeout rate to the upper teens, hits even more home runs and pitchers start to fear him even more
- Russell hits 25+ HR and improves his average
- Schwarber is a monster at the plate, good enough in left field and is behind the plate for a few games by the end of the year
- Almora is exactly as expected - decent average, adequate power and great defense. Jay is okay out there, but Almora ends up grabbing most of the playing time due to his defensive value
- Zobrist gets plenty of time off to keep him sharp, but he does what he does: gets on base and drives the ball enough to keep pitchers honest
- Baez takes another big step forward at the plate and forces more and more playing time by the end of the year
- Heyward gets fixed at the plate, giving the Cubs seven position players with 5+ WAR

- Arrieta has his command come in and out all year long, ending the year with a string of god mode starts that lasts through the playoffs
- Lester finds that he likes pitching to Contreras just fine, thank you very much
- Hendricks is not quite as good as last year, but is still outstanding
- Lackey is slightly less good than last year, but still a perfectly adequate number 4
- Andersen stays healthy for 180+ innings and we love him
- Montgomery never gets much of a chance to join the rotation because of Andersen staying healthy and...
- Butler finds his old changeup and combines it with his improved slider and becomes a legit front line starter

- Davis stays healthy all year and enjoys playing with the Cubs so much he takes a discount to stick around for future years
- Rondon is healthy and pitches like first half Rondon all year long
- Montgomery is outstanding out of the pen from the left side
- Uehara is great in short stints when he gets enough rest between outings
- Strop is very strop-y and contributes at least a couple of great video moments on walk off celebrations
- CJ improves his command enough and becomes the guy the Cubs turn to for multiple innings at a time
- Grimm is the best seventh reliever in baseball

The Cubs win 118 games and roll to another title in the playoffs.

[CubinNY]

162-0

[Bote McBoteface]

For the record, I predicted exactly 103 wins last season. (Not on NSBB, though) So, as a fully licensed prediction expert with a perfect record, I'm going with 101-61.

101 Might seem low, but our win total will be suppressed a bit because we'll have a firm lead on best record in the NL race, allowing us to spend most of September doing fun stuff like using a 7 man rotation and giving Almora, Happ, and other prospects playing time. Javy gets at least 1 start at Catcher and becomes the first player since....I don't know....to have a start at every defensive position except pitcher in a season.

Injuries will catch up to the pitching staff, forcing us to majorly overpay to acquire sonny gray and sean doolittle.

The MVP race will basically be Bryant, Rizzo or Schwarber, with Rizzo winning. Schwarber does get comback player of the year, though.

Kyle Hendricks either wins the Cy Young, or should have won the Cy Young. He throws a perfect game, probably against the Brewers, and then adds in a no hitter during the playoffs just because.

Cubs defeat the Dodgers and Nationals en route to the World Series. ALCS is CLE vs BOS and the healthier team wins. I'll go with Cleveland. Cubs beat Cleveland in 6 games.

[soccer10k]

Dongs. Lots and lots of dongs.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

97 wins but an easier path through the playoffs on the repeat. None of these "needing 7 games to win" shenanigans.

[David]

For the record, I predicted exactly 103 wins last season. (Not on NSBB, though) So, as a fully licensed prediction expert with a perfect record, I'm going with 101-61.

101 Might seem low, but our win total will be suppressed a bit because we'll have a firm lead on best record in the NL race, allowing us to spend most of September doing fun stuff like using a 7 man rotation and giving Almora, Happ, and other prospects playing time. Javy gets at least 1 start at Catcher and becomes the first player since....I don't know....to have a start at every defensive position except pitcher in a season.

Injuries will catch up to the pitching staff, forcing us to majorly overpay to acquire sonny gray and sean doolittle.

The MVP race will basically be Bryant, Rizzo or Schwarber, with Rizzo winning. Schwarber does get comback player of the year, though.

Kyle Hendricks either wins the Cy Young, or should have won the Cy Young. He throws a perfect game, probably against the Brewers, and then adds in a no hitter during the playoffs just because.

Cubs defeat the Dodgers and Nationals en route to the World Series. ALCS is CLE vs BOS and the healthier team wins. I'll go with Cleveland. Cubs beat Cleveland in 6 games.

We want the best record in MLB, tho.

Unless this is a secret plan to get more DH games, which I can get on board with.

[UMFan83]

I don't know if we have a projection thread for 2017, so I'm putting this here: PECOTA projects the Cubs to win 90 games in 2017, winning the Central by (i think) 8 games over the Pirates. The Dodgers are projected to have 98 wins, which seems like a ton for a projection system that typically seems to have a small standard deviation between the best and worst teams.

[sneakypower]

[David]

I don't know if we have a projection thread for 2017, so I'm putting this here: PECOTA projects the Cubs to win 90 games in 2017, winning the Central by (i think) 8 games over the Pirates. The Dodgers are projected to have 98 wins, which seems like a ton for a projection system that typically seems to have a small standard deviation between the best and worst teams.

waiting for TT to remind me that PECOTA sucks

(seriously, though, dodgers with 98 wins on that projection system? wtf?)

[davell]

They've had the Dodgers winning the most games for 5 years straight.

[David]

I don't know if we have a projection thread for 2017, so I'm putting this here: PECOTA projects the Cubs to win 90 games in 2017, winning the Central by (i think) 8 games over the Pirates. The Dodgers are projected to have 98 wins, which seems like a ton for a projection system that typically seems to have a small standard deviation between the best and worst teams.

waiting for TT to remind me that PECOTA sucks

(seriously, though, dodgers with 98 wins on that projection system? wtf?)

yeah, they seem to love the dodgers excessively and *slightly* under-love the cubs (or they wayyyyy over love the dodgers, depending on how conservative you expect it to be)

[We Got The Whole 9]

They expect us to allow 120 more runs than last year. I get that we should expect regression given how much distance was between our advanced stats and actual results but I think the FO has done a great job of pairing gb and weak contact guys with the most efficient defense ever fielded. Sure we downgrade a little in the OF but not enough to regress that harshly.

Then take into account that we get Schwarber, Willy, and almost certainly an improved Heyward, I think their projection is a pile of horsefeathers.

[David]

They expect us to allow 120 more runs than last year. I get that we should expect regression given how much distance was between our advanced stats and actual results but I think the FO has done a great job of pairing gb and weak contact guys with the most efficient defense ever fielded. Sure we downgrade a little in the OF but not enough to regress that harshly.

Then take into account that we get Schwarber, Willy, and almost certainly an improved Heyward, I think their projection is a pile of horsefeathers.

I don't really think there's anything wrong with a low 90's projection, as that's pretty high for a projection.

What I don't understand is the Dodgers coming in at 98 by those same standards.

[cubweiser03]

PECOTA 91 wins? Puuuuuhlease. This team is better than last year, gonna be tough to beat 103+ but they ain't winning 91 I'll tell you that. They will win 91 before the all star break.

[big ball chunky time]

One reason I'm really excited to get this season started is there are just so many possibilities. Maybe Heyward rebounds and Schwarb hits and Russell takes a step forward and the pitching is still good and KB and Rizzo maintain god status and Javy takes a step forward and we win 105 games

or

Maybe Heyward still stinks and we have to start really thinking about being stuck with an expensive dead weight, and Schwarb really can't play the OF, and Russell plateus and the pitching has health issues and KB and Rizzo, well, still maintain god status, and Javy's defense takes a step back and we win 90 games.

Lmao that's kind of crazy to think about

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Some dood spotted that Contreras's defensive value was too insanely low to be believed, and there actually was an error. Not sure when it was corrected. Also, they have Jon Jay projected to get 450 PAs (200 for Almora) and Baez somehow has negative defensive value...and only 133 PA at 2B (for a total of 438, less than Mr. Federalist). Relief ERAs seem a touch high across the board. There are issues.

[David]

Some dood spotted that Contreras's defensive value was too insanely low to be believed, and there actually was an error. Not sure when it was corrected. Also, they have Jon Jay projected to get 450 PAs (200 for Almora) and Baez somehow has negative defensive value...and only 133 PA at 2B (for a total of 438, less than Mr. Federalist). Relief ERAs seem a touch high across the board. There are issues.

These seem like reasonable totals at first glance. Maybe a touch high with all the mixing and matching Joe will do.

[David]

One reason I'm really excited to get this season started is there are just so many possibilities. Maybe Heyward rebounds and Schwarb hits and Russell takes a step forward and the pitching is still good and KB and Rizzo maintain god status and Javy takes a step forward and we win 105 games

or

Maybe Heyward still stinks and we have to start really thinking about being stuck with an expensive dead weight, and Schwarb really can't play the OF, and Russell plateus and the pitching has health issues and KB and Rizzo, well, still maintain god status, and Javy's defense takes a step back and we win 90 games.

Lmao that's kind of crazy to think about

Schwarber is fine in the OF. The expectation is for him to be averageish or a bit below, which is about how he's graded out in 300ish MLB innings (granted, before the injury). It takes a special terrible kind of athlete to be the type of detriment that Adam Dunn (and lol Soler) was out there. And if Russell already is what he is, well that's about a 4 win player so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

I'm on board with the rest of those downside ones, though...maybe put the win total at like 94.

I think the win total is light if all those upsides play out (they won't, tho)...that team would win like 110-115 games or some horsefeathers lmao.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Some dood spotted that Contreras's defensive value was too insanely low to be believed, and there actually was an error. Not sure when it was corrected. Also, they have Jon Jay projected to get 450 PAs (200 for Almora) and Baez somehow has negative defensive value...and only 133 PA at 2B (for a total of 438, less than Mr. Federalist). Relief ERAs seem a touch high across the board. There are issues.

These seem like reasonable totals at first glance. Maybe a touch high with all the mixing and matching Joe will do.

There is no way that a guy that hits from the same side as Heyward and Schwarber and isn't an especially good defender gets that many ABs in the OF. Barring injuries, 0 chance. He would need to be starting in CF nearly every game against righties this season. Do you think that is reasonable?

EDIT: Did not realize Jay was a switch hitter. I still think its way high, but I no longer think its insane.
REEDIT: He isn't a switch hitter. But has reversish splits.