Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 29, 2019 7:07 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Someone talk me off the ledge of wanting the Cubs to get him into the OF instead of C by next season.


He’d be terrible in the OF


Well, right now he's terrible behind the plate, too.


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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby sneakypower » Wed May 29, 2019 7:14 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Someone talk me off the ledge of wanting the Cubs to get him into the OF instead of C by next season.

he has a top-30 fWAR in MLB
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed May 29, 2019 7:16 pm

i still think it makes a ton of sense to trade him
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby squally1313 » Wed May 29, 2019 7:17 pm

This is one of those 'here's a good idea' things that has no real answer to 'Ok, done, then what do you do next?'
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 29, 2019 7:17 pm

sneakypower wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Someone talk me off the ledge of wanting the Cubs to get him into the OF instead of C by next season.

he has a top-30 fWAR in MLB


Right, and that would be even sexier without his god awful catching dragging him down.
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed May 29, 2019 7:19 pm

sneakypower wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Someone talk me off the ledge of wanting the Cubs to get him into the OF instead of C by next season.

he has a top-30 fWAR in MLB

Sure, but how well does fWAR take into account his framing suckage? And he could possibly be cranking out a higher fWAR as an OF.
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 29, 2019 7:20 pm

Catcher seems like the position where you can get away with having all glove/no hit guys like you used to be able to in the MI.

I dunno; it's just frustrating watching him be so bad behind the plate while being so baller at the plate. And then that terrible, terrible Cubs OF seems so open and needs so much improvement...
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed May 29, 2019 7:21 pm

squally1313 wrote:This is one of those 'here's a good idea' things that has no real answer to 'Ok, done, then what do you do next?'

Sign someone like Grandal for 16 mil on a short term contract and win lots of games?
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed May 29, 2019 7:23 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
squally1313 wrote:This is one of those 'here's a good idea' things that has no real answer to 'Ok, done, then what do you do next?'

Sign someone like Grandal for 16 mil on a short term contract and win lots of games?


trading willson for prospects or major league pitching and then signing grandal makes way too much sense for it to happen
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby sneakypower » Wed May 29, 2019 7:25 pm

you guys don't deserve nice things
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 29, 2019 7:30 pm

Man, I don't want to trade him, dammit.

But if I WAS an insane baseball president, I would definitely look to move catching prospects who can hit but aren't actually any better than serviceable at best at catching to literally any other position ASAP. Between how it seems to shorten careers, has them playing fewer games each season than the average healthy starting player, and how the margin of good to suck seems like a gigantic cliff that favors the latter, I'd make catching the dumping ground for guys who can't hit. Get those swaggy bats somewhere more valuable.

Also: convert more starting pitching prospects to relievers sooner rather than later.

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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed May 29, 2019 7:35 pm

also don't catchers tend to decline earlier? trade hiiimmmmm
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 29, 2019 7:36 pm

MY IDEA IS BETTER BECAUSE IT KEEPS WILLSON CONTRERAS AND SPARES HIM FROM COMING DOWN WITH CATCHERITIS.
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby squally1313 » Wed May 29, 2019 7:40 pm

You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed May 29, 2019 7:43 pm

squally1313 wrote:You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?


are you talking about grandal?
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed May 29, 2019 7:47 pm

squally1313 wrote:You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?

Albert Almora's fWAR the past four seasons: 0.6, 1.1, 1.1, 0.6 (so far)
Yasmani Grandal's fWAR the past four seasons: 5.5, 4.5, 4.9, 2.0 (so far)

Yeah, Almora doesn't get as many ABs as Grandal, but normalized for playing time, its still a huge leap. I also think there is a chance that Contreras could put up HIGHER fWAR levels as an outfielder. I also don't see how that shrinks viable options. We would have what some of us hoped Schwarber could be: a guy that could catch ocne every other week as needed who rakes in the OF the rest of the time. If there is anyone I want to trade high on this upcoming offseason, its Almora.
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 29, 2019 7:49 pm

squally1313 wrote:You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?


Yes, because catcher is a far more important position defensively, and because I think Willson in a corner OF spot is essentially an automatic upgrade over either the hapless bums currently taking up space. And I don't agree that finding a serviceable defensive-first catcher is some kind of dire financial burden the Cubs couldn't handle.
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby squally1313 » Wed May 29, 2019 7:53 pm

17 Seconds wrote:
squally1313 wrote:You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?


are you talking about grandal?


Fair...combining the two options. A (very hypothetically) defensively passable Contreras in CF and Grandal behind the plate is obviously an improvement over the current plan. But for all that to take place, the following would have to be true:

1. Grandal accepts our offer, which will be higher than the $16m someone tossed out considering he's making $18m this year and is on pace for his best offensive year (though, oddly, his defensive fWAR looks like it will decline for the fourth straight year).
2. The argument that catchers decline earlier doesn't apply to Grandal, since after this year he'll have 6 straight years of at least 115 games, and will be 31 years old.
3. The same front office who sees a pitching staff with 4 guys over 30 and zero viable backup plans, and a bullpen that is basically just a picture of a garbage fire, and also sees Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel wanting to play for contenders, and has yet to connect the very obvious dots, is cool moving their super cost controlled catcher to a brand new position to replace their cost controlled outfielder and add a $20m/year catcher in his 30s to an infield that is going to get expensive very soon.
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby squally1313 » Wed May 29, 2019 7:58 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
squally1313 wrote:You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?


Yes, because catcher is a far more important position defensively, and because I think Willson in a corner OF spot is essentially an automatic upgrade over either the hapless bums currently taking up space. And I don't agree that finding a serviceable defensive-first catcher is some kind of dire financial burden the Cubs couldn't handle.


Yeah, the 'pay more money' was referring to Grandal, which I covered above. I think it's a little naive to just assume 'replace Almora with Grandal' is some definitely viable option. Which leaves you with 'serviceable defensive-first catchers', which goes back to original point of 'like who?' Yes, catcher is more important defensively, but Contreras is much better offensively than the average catcher, which still matters.
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed May 29, 2019 8:00 pm

squally1313 wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
squally1313 wrote:You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?


are you talking about grandal?


Fair...combining the two options. A (very hypothetically) defensively passable Contreras in CF and Grandal behind the plate is obviously an improvement over the current plan. But for all that to take place, the following would have to be true:

1. Grandal accepts our offer, which will be higher than the $16m someone tossed out considering he's making $18m this year and is on pace for his best offensive year (though, oddly, his defensive fWAR looks like it will decline for the fourth straight year).
2. The argument that catchers decline earlier doesn't apply to Grandal, since after this year he'll have 6 straight years of at least 115 games, and will be 31 years old.
3. The same front office who sees a pitching staff with 4 guys over 30 and zero viable backup plans, and a bullpen that is basically just a picture of a garbage fire, and also sees Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel wanting to play for contenders, and has yet to connect the very obvious dots, is cool moving their super cost controlled catcher to a brand new position to replace their cost controlled outfielder and add a $20m/year catcher in his 30s to an infield that is going to get expensive very soon.

...so you're saying you don't want to sign good players because they are expensive? It obviously doesn't have to be Grandal to work. Get some other 2.5 WAR catching bum on a two year contract and trade Almora for cost-controlled pitchers who don't resemble dumpsters lit on fire. I mentioned Grandal because his deal was normalish. Realmuto signed on a 2.7 mil one year contract (!?!?) and he's quite a bit better at this point.
Last edited by JudasIscariotTheBird on Wed May 29, 2019 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 29, 2019 8:02 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
squally1313 wrote:You, me, and like half this board spend most of our time in the game threads complaining about our centerfielder who can't hit but grades out pretty well defensively and occasionally lucks into home runs. So your grand idea is to...move that problem to catcher, dramatically shrink the number of viable options, and pay more money to do it?


Yes, because catcher is a far more important position defensively, and because I think Willson in a corner OF spot is essentially an automatic upgrade over either the hapless bums currently taking up space. And I don't agree that finding a serviceable defensive-first catcher is some kind of dire financial burden the Cubs couldn't handle.


Yeah, the 'pay more money' was referring to Grandal, which I covered above. I think it's a little naive to just assume 'replace Almora with Grandal' is some definitely viable option. Which leaves you with 'serviceable defensive-first catchers', which goes back to original point of 'like who?' Yes, catcher is more important defensively, but Contreras is much better offensively than the average catcher, which still matters.


And he'd be better offensively than the average OF, too, and he'd do much less damage out there than behind the plate.

IMO, the guy is a massive liability defensively, but it's at a position where he's arguably dragging down the pitching, which already needs to walk a pretty fine line.
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 29, 2019 8:04 pm

I mean, yeah, I get it; the Cubs are trying not to spend, but at some point they're to have to. That OF is too much of a wasteland.
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby squally1313 » Wed May 29, 2019 8:06 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
are you talking about grandal?


Fair...combining the two options. A (very hypothetically) defensively passable Contreras in CF and Grandal behind the plate is obviously an improvement over the current plan. But for all that to take place, the following would have to be true:

1. Grandal accepts our offer, which will be higher than the $16m someone tossed out considering he's making $18m this year and is on pace for his best offensive year (though, oddly, his defensive fWAR looks like it will decline for the fourth straight year).
2. The argument that catchers decline earlier doesn't apply to Grandal, since after this year he'll have 6 straight years of at least 115 games, and will be 31 years old.
3. The same front office who sees a pitching staff with 4 guys over 30 and zero viable backup plans, and a bullpen that is basically just a picture of a garbage fire, and also sees Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel wanting to play for contenders, and has yet to connect the very obvious dots, is cool moving their super cost controlled catcher to a brand new position to replace their cost controlled outfielder and add a $20m/year catcher in his 30s to an infield that is going to get expensive very soon.

...so you're saying you don't want to sign good players because they are expensive? It obviously doesn't have to be Grandal to work. Get some other 2.5 WAR catching bum on a two year contract and trade Almora for cost-controlled pitchers who don't resemble dumpsters lit on fire.


Catchers who put up 2.5 WAR or more last year: Grandal, Realmuto, Alfaro, Stassi, Cervelli, Flowers, Gomes. All seven of them. Six more if you want to move down to 2 WAR. 47 outfielders over 2.5 WAR, as a comparison.

I would love signing good players, regardless of the cost. We've spent the last 8 months cursing out Tom, Theo, etc for not signing good players. It's become clear to me that we might need to be a little picky on where we decide to spend big money, and kicking out our catcher on pace for 4.3 WAR making essentially the league minimum doesn't really seem realistic.
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 29, 2019 8:12 pm

"Kicking out" makes moving him to another position sound a tad dramatic.
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Re: Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 29, 2019 8:13 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I mean, yeah, I get it; the Cubs are trying not to spend, but at some point they're to have to. That OF is too much of a wasteland.


Buy low on Zunino, tweak swing, get lucky, trade Contreras for a real OF?
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