Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:30 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:They only carried 11 pitchers for the NLDS last year, and especially given that Montgomery is a lock, I don't see much reason for that to change. You don't need 8 relievers when you've got a 5 game series that has 2 off days.

they also had a fully functional rotation last year.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Hunter » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:31 pm

I just can't see Joe leaving Lackey off the roster, no matter how much we want it. It would anger a lot of players on the team. Look how they were chanting Lackey yesterday during the celebration.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:36 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:They only carried 11 pitchers for the NLDS last year, and especially given that Montgomery is a lock, I don't see much reason for that to change. You don't need 8 relievers when you've got a 5 game series that has 2 off days.

So Martin or Rivera over Lackey? I would generally agree, but with Jake and Lester as question marks I could see going 12 with Lackey as a safety valve.


I mean, the only way that Jake and Lester don't at least start a game is if they get hurt beforehand, which is extremely unlikely. If you're worried they don't last long, Lackey doesn't help very much with that. And Lackey out of the pen isn't going to be much different than using Montgomery.

EDIT: Plus you can simply make one of them the Game 4 starter where you have the option of bringing Game 1-2 starters back on short rest.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:37 pm

Hunter wrote:I just can't see Joe leaving Lackey off the roster, no matter how much we want it. It would anger a lot of players on the team. Look how they were chanting Lackey yesterday during the celebration.


He left Hammel off the NLDS roster last year.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:41 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:They only carried 11 pitchers for the NLDS last year, and especially given that Montgomery is a lock, I don't see much reason for that to change. You don't need 8 relievers when you've got a 5 game series that has 2 off days.

So Martin or Rivera over Lackey? I would generally agree, but with Jake and Lester as question marks I could see going 12 with Lackey as a safety valve.


I mean, the only way that Jake and Lester don't at least start a game is if they get hurt beforehand, which is extremely unlikely. If you're worried they don't last long, Lackey doesn't help very much with that. And Lackey out of the pen isn't going to be much different than using Montgomery.

EDIT: Plus you can simply make one of them the Game 4 starter where you have the option of bringing Game 1-2 starters back on short rest.

I’m not saying have Lackey for long relief, I’m saying it sounds like they might not even know until the day of the game how healthy Arrieta is/how he’s feeling and it would be nice to have Lackey as an option to start if Jake just isn’t there. I’d also take a Lackey on rest start over any of our guys on short rest.
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby bukie » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:42 pm

Here's what I figure for the playoff rosters:

Locks (19):
Starters (4): Arrieta, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana
Relievers (4): Davis, Edwards, Montgomery, Strop
Lineup (11): Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Contreras, Heyward, Schwarber, Happ, Zobrist, Jay, Avila

Decisions:
- Another lefty reliever is required. Leaning Duensing here. That leaves 5.
- If Almora is healthy enough to play (and there's little indication he won't be), he's on the roster. That leaves 4.
- Among the 4, last year the Cubs went 14/11, so assuming the same split, there are 2 spots for pitchers and 2 for position players. If the Cubs are confident that Montgomery is the only emergency long man they'll need, then I'd guess Lackey stays home and the Cubs take two of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara. If not, they'll hedge their bets and take Lackey and one of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara.
- To fill out the bench, they'd take 2 of La Stella/Martin/Rivera, pending what they expect their biggest needs to be. If they want to use Avila more in PH situations than La Stella, I could see them taking Rivera as an insurance catcher option with Martin. If they think 2 catchers will be enough, they'll go with La Stella and Martin for the flexibility.
Last edited by bukie on Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Hunter » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:42 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Hunter wrote:I just can't see Joe leaving Lackey off the roster, no matter how much we want it. It would anger a lot of players on the team. Look how they were chanting Lackey yesterday during the celebration.


He left Hammel off the NLDS roster last year.


I don't remember anyone really being buddies with Hammel. Lester would probably be pretty upset if Lackey is left off. It isn't quite David Ross retiring after the season, but Lackey is also retiring.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Hunter » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:44 pm

bukie wrote:Here's what I figure for the playoff rosters:

Locks (19):
Starters (4): Arrieta, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana
Relievers (4): Davis, Edwards, Montgomery, Strop
Lineup (11): Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Contreras, Heyward, Schwarber, Happ, Zobrist, Jay, Avila

Decisions:
- Another lefty reliever is required. Leaning Duensing here. That leaves 5.
- If Almora is healthy enough to play (and there's little indication he won't be), he's on the roster. That leaves 4.
- Among the 4, last year the Cubs went 14/11, so assuming the same split, there are 2 spots for pitchers and 2 for position players. If the Cubs are confident that Montgomery is the only emergency long man they'll need, then I'd guess Lackey stays home and the Cubs take two of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara. If not, they'll hedge their bets and take Lackey and one of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara.
- To fill out the bench, they'd take 2 of La Stella/Martin/Rivera, pending what they expect their biggest needs to be. If they want to use Avila more in PH situations than La Stella, I could see them taking Rivera as an insurance catcher option with Martin. If they think 2 catchers will be enough, they'll go with La Stella and Martin for the flexibility.


Are you suggesting they would leave Montgomery off the roster if they take Lackey? Duensing would be left off before Montgomery.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby bukie » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:45 pm

Hunter wrote:
bukie wrote:Here's what I figure for the playoff rosters:

Locks (19):
Starters (4): Arrieta, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana
Relievers (4): Davis, Edwards, Montgomery, Strop
Lineup (11): Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Contreras, Heyward, Schwarber, Happ, Zobrist, Jay, Avila

Decisions:
- Another lefty reliever is required. Leaning Duensing here. That leaves 5.
- If Almora is healthy enough to play (and there's little indication he won't be), he's on the roster. That leaves 4.
- Among the 4, last year the Cubs went 14/11, so assuming the same split, there are 2 spots for pitchers and 2 for position players. If the Cubs are confident that Montgomery is the only emergency long man they'll need, then I'd guess Lackey stays home and the Cubs take two of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara. If not, they'll hedge their bets and take Lackey and one of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara.
- To fill out the bench, they'd take 2 of La Stella/Martin/Rivera, pending what they expect their biggest needs to be. If they want to use Avila more in PH situations than La Stella, I could see them taking Rivera as an insurance catcher option with Martin. If they think 2 catchers will be enough, they'll go with La Stella and Martin for the flexibility.


Are you suggesting they would leave Montgomery off the roster if they take Lackey? Duensing would be left off before Montgomery.

No, that is why Montgomery is in the lock category.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby CubinNY » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:45 pm

bukie wrote:Here's what I figure for the playoff rosters:

Locks (19):
Starters (4): Arrieta, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana
Relievers (4): Davis, Edwards, Montgomery, Strop
Lineup (11): Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Contreras, Heyward, Schwarber, Happ, Zobrist, Jay, Avila

Decisions:
- Another lefty reliever is required. Leaning Duensing here. That leaves 5.
- If Almora is healthy enough to play (and there's little indication he won't be), he's on the roster. That leaves 4.
- Among the 4, last year the Cubs went 14/11, so assuming the same split, there are 2 spots for pitchers and 2 for position players. If the Cubs are confident that Montgomery is the only emergency long man they'll need, then I'd guess Lackey stays home and the Cubs take two of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara. If not, they'll hedge their bets and take Lackey and one of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara.
- To fill out the bench, they'd take 2 of La Stella/Martin/Rivera, pending what they expect their biggest needs to be. If they want to use Avila more in PH situations than La Stella, I could see them taking Rivera as an insurance catcher option with Martin. If they think 2 catchers will be enough, they'll go with La Stella and Martin for the flexibility.

I think La Stella is a lock. Joe puts him in key pinch-hit situations against righties.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Agony and Ivy » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:52 pm

Hunter wrote:
bukie wrote:Here's what I figure for the playoff rosters:

Locks (19):
Starters (4): Arrieta, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana
Relievers (4): Davis, Edwards, Montgomery, Strop
Lineup (11): Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Contreras, Heyward, Schwarber, Happ, Zobrist, Jay, Avila

Decisions:
- Another lefty reliever is required. Leaning Duensing here. That leaves 5.
- If Almora is healthy enough to play (and there's little indication he won't be), he's on the roster. That leaves 4.
- Among the 4, last year the Cubs went 14/11, so assuming the same split, there are 2 spots for pitchers and 2 for position players. If the Cubs are confident that Montgomery is the only emergency long man they'll need, then I'd guess Lackey stays home and the Cubs take two of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara. If not, they'll hedge their bets and take Lackey and one of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara.
- To fill out the bench, they'd take 2 of La Stella/Martin/Rivera, pending what they expect their biggest needs to be. If they want to use Avila more in PH situations than La Stella, I could see them taking Rivera as an insurance catcher option with Martin. If they think 2 catchers will be enough, they'll go with La Stella and Martin for the flexibility.


Are you suggesting they would leave Montgomery off the roster if they take Lackey? Duensing would be left off before Montgomery.


Deunsing is an absolute lock for me with Harper and Murphy lurking. God I forgot about how much of a horsefeathers Murphy is and how badly I want to destroy him this year.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Enn Tea » Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:23 pm

This series scares me. Please, make the NLDS a 7 game series soon. We're better than the Nats, but that doesnt really matter. That pitching can shut you down for 27 innings easily. So can ours, but they for sure have an advantage in that area.

I predict a lot of close games in the late innings and I don't really trust anybody but Monty and Davis in the pen right Now. And Lackey I guess. I semi-trust Strop and Carl. Washington's bullpen has become a strength.

The Nats are a scary, scary team. But that said, we can exploit Dusty. Lets do Javy-Rizzo-Bryant-Contreras 2-3-4-5. I guaran-goddamn-tee that Baker intentionally walks Javy then brings in a Lefty not named Doolittle to face Rizzo, Bryant and Contreras at least once in the series.

Im mostly joking on that, but between exploiting Dusty, our experience, and the tear we have been on since the allstar break, I think we'll pull it off. And if we do, the Dodgers secretly suck and they will be easy, as long as the Dbacks dont beat them before we get the chance. I'd bet big that the winner of this series will be the NL's World Series representative. Game 1 is an absolute must win.

Go Cubs! :flythew: :flythew: :flythew:
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby ConstableRabbit » Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:28 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:They only carried 11 pitchers for the NLDS last year, and especially given that Montgomery is a lock, I don't see much reason for that to change. You don't need 8 relievers when you've got a 5 game series that has 2 off days.

So Martin or Rivera over Lackey? I would generally agree, but with Jake and Lester as question marks I could see going 12 with Lackey as a safety valve.

Montgomery is the safety valve imo.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:29 pm

ConstableRabbit wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:They only carried 11 pitchers for the NLDS last year, and especially given that Montgomery is a lock, I don't see much reason for that to change. You don't need 8 relievers when you've got a 5 game series that has 2 off days.

So Martin or Rivera over Lackey? I would generally agree, but with Jake and Lester as question marks I could see going 12 with Lackey as a safety valve.

Montgomery is the safety valve imo.

I hate that, he should be used in leverage spots. Not as a emergency starter/long guy if someone can’t get out of the 2nd or 3rd. He should be used like Andrew Miller last year.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Old Style » Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:40 pm

bukie wrote:Here's what I figure for the playoff rosters:

Locks (19):
Starters (4): Arrieta, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana
Relievers (4): Davis, Edwards, Montgomery, Strop
Lineup (11): Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Contreras, Heyward, Schwarber, Happ, Zobrist, Jay, Avila

Decisions:
- Another lefty reliever is required. Leaning Duensing here. That leaves 5.
- If Almora is healthy enough to play (and there's little indication he won't be), he's on the roster. That leaves 4.
- Among the 4, last year the Cubs went 14/11, so assuming the same split, there are 2 spots for pitchers and 2 for position players. If the Cubs are confident that Montgomery is the only emergency long man they'll need, then I'd guess Lackey stays home and the Cubs take two of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara. If not, they'll hedge their bets and take Lackey and one of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara.
- To fill out the bench, they'd take 2 of La Stella/Martin/Rivera, pending what they expect their biggest needs to be. If they want to use Avila more in PH situations than La Stella, I could see them taking Rivera as an insurance catcher option with Martin. If they think 2 catchers will be enough, they'll go with La Stella and Martin for the flexibility.

Is Koji even going to be ready to pitch?
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Agony and Ivy » Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:45 pm

Old Style wrote:
bukie wrote:Here's what I figure for the playoff rosters:

Locks (19):
Starters (4): Arrieta, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana
Relievers (4): Davis, Edwards, Montgomery, Strop
Lineup (11): Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Contreras, Heyward, Schwarber, Happ, Zobrist, Jay, Avila

Decisions:
- Another lefty reliever is required. Leaning Duensing here. That leaves 5.
- If Almora is healthy enough to play (and there's little indication he won't be), he's on the roster. That leaves 4.
- Among the 4, last year the Cubs went 14/11, so assuming the same split, there are 2 spots for pitchers and 2 for position players. If the Cubs are confident that Montgomery is the only emergency long man they'll need, then I'd guess Lackey stays home and the Cubs take two of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara. If not, they'll hedge their bets and take Lackey and one of Rondon/Wilson/Uehara.
- To fill out the bench, they'd take 2 of La Stella/Martin/Rivera, pending what they expect their biggest needs to be. If they want to use Avila more in PH situations than La Stella, I could see them taking Rivera as an insurance catcher option with Martin. If they think 2 catchers will be enough, they'll go with La Stella and Martin for the flexibility.

Is Koji even going to be ready to pitch?


God I hope not.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Brian707 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:53 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
I mean, the only way that Jake and Lester don't at least start a game is if they get hurt beforehand



If the Cubs sweep the Nats one of those guys might not start a game in the NLDS
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:56 pm

Can’t believe this wasn’t posted yet..... pummel this buffoon please.

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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby David » Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:01 pm

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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:03 pm

David wrote:

So do you sit Javy with Zobrist at 2B and 3 of Schwarber/Happ/Jay/Heyward in the OF? Do you dare start Avila over Willy, especially/assuming it’s a not Lester start and you don’t need the elite defense?
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby David » Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:05 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
David wrote:

So do you sit Javy with Zobrist at 2B and 3 of Schwarber/Happ/Jay/Heyward in the OF? Do you dare start Avila over Willy, especially/assuming it’s a not Lester start and you don’t need the elite defense?


I'd deal with Sealboy's defense and get him in somewhere
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:07 pm

You absolutely sit Javy against Scherzer. I get the argument for La Stella but it'll probably be two of Zobrist/Happ/Schwarber in 2B/LF.

Contreras is harder to pin down. If I had to guess, I'd say they play him.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:10 pm

David wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
David wrote:

So do you sit Javy with Zobrist at 2B and 3 of Schwarber/Happ/Jay/Heyward in the OF? Do you dare start Avila over Willy, especially/assuming it’s a not Lester start and you don’t need the elite defense?



I'd deal with Sealboy's defense and get him in somewhere

Good point. Zobrist/Jay/Heyward OF, Bryant/Russell/LaStella/Rizzo INF, Avila catching is probably what I’d do. Schwarbs/Happ seem to struggle with velo and Happ (tho many do) with Scherzer’s breaking stuff.
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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:17 pm

Yeah Seal Boy is gonna start and it better be at 2B his defense is most tolerable there, imo.

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Re: Discuss NLDS vs. Dusty Baker's Nationals

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:23 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:You absolutely sit Javy against Scherzer. I get the argument for La Stella but it'll probably be two of Zobrist/Happ/Schwarber in 2B/LF.

Contreras is harder to pin down. If I had to guess, I'd say they play him.


It might depend on the starter for the Cubs. I think absolutely start Contreras if its Lester. If its Jake or Kyle, you lean heavily in Willy's direction....you at least consider Avila if its Quintana.
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