FG Playoff Odds are out today!

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FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby Tim » Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:27 pm

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

Yeah. I'll just leave it there.
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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby cl smooth » Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:35 pm

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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby Tracer Bullet » Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:56 pm

too low
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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby Banedon » Mon Feb 29, 2016 5:06 pm

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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Feb 29, 2016 5:45 pm

lol at 96.5 wins from ZiPS, that is delightfully absurd
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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:13 pm

I wonder how many wins FG would project for the 2015 NL All Star team if they replaced the Cubs as a team.
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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:28 pm

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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby Gmoney08 » Mon Feb 29, 2016 7:59 pm

Interesting that the Royals have the lowest expected wins out of the AL.

Also surprised to see the Dodgers odds so high after this Giants offseason.

The top 4 expected win totals are also all out of the NL.


I know the projections clump a lot of data towards the median and its obviously expected one of those AL teams will out perform their projections and end up with a better record than a couple if not all of the NL top 4.
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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby David » Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:02 pm

what am i missing with all the love the giants offseason got?

they just got samardzija and cueto, right?

oh, yeah...span too. meh.

i don't love any of those players but they should be decent.
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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby Banedon » Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:03 pm

Gmoney08 wrote:Interesting that the Royals have the lowest expected wins out of the AL.

Also surprised to see the Dodgers odds so high after this Giants offseason.

The top 4 expected win totals are also all out of the NL.


I know the projections clump a lot of data towards the median and its obviously expected one of those AL teams will out perform their projections and end up with a better record than a couple if not all of the NL top 4.


Well, but you also have the lowest 6 records in the NL to balance that out. The AL won't get to beat up on those terrible teams as often as the NL.
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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:06 pm

Banedon wrote:
Gmoney08 wrote:Interesting that the Royals have the lowest expected wins out of the AL.

Also surprised to see the Dodgers odds so high after this Giants offseason.

The top 4 expected win totals are also all out of the NL.


I know the projections clump a lot of data towards the median and its obviously expected one of those AL teams will out perform their projections and end up with a better record than a couple if not all of the NL top 4.


Well, but you also have the lowest 6 records in the NL to balance that out. The AL won't get to beat up on those terrible teams as often as the NL.

Yeah I think the top 4ish teams in the NL this year are gonna have inflated win totals vs projections while the bottom 4 have deflated totals due to the talent gap. I wouldn't be all that surprised if there's 3-4 90-100win teams this year and 3-4 90+ loss teams in the NL.
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby bukie » Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:09 pm

Over 50% to make the NLCS before the season starts.
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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:09 pm

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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby SouthSideRyan » Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:10 pm

Gmoney08 wrote:Interesting that the Royals have the lowest expected wins out of the AL.

Also surprised to see the Dodgers odds so high after this Giants offseason.

The top 4 expected win totals are also all out of the NL.


I know the projections clump a lot of data towards the median and its obviously expected one of those AL teams will out perform their projections and end up with a better record than a couple if not all of the NL top 4.


Top of my head the AL doesn't have any truly awful teams to beat up(Maybe the Twins?), whereas the NL has them in spades.
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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:11 pm

David wrote:what am i missing with all the love the giants offseason got?

they just got samardzija and cueto, right?

oh, yeah...span too. meh.

i don't love any of those players but they should be decent.


Their situation was a bit like the White Sox, in that they had gaping holes so even non-ideal acquisitions are a big improvement. I think they'll be a bit like the Cardinals in that they'll be solid all over the diamond and throughout the rotation, but the lack of starpower keep them from being easy division winners or top of the NL. Of course, if their infield puts up 18 fWAR again I'll look stupid, but I imagine there will be some plexiglass effect for anywhere from 2 to all 4 of those guys.
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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby bukie » Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:32 pm

Gap from Cubs to top of the AL is about the same as the gap from the top of the AL to the bottom of the AL.
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Re: FG Playoff Odds are out today!

Postby soccer10k » Tue Mar 01, 2016 6:01 am

SouthSideRyan wrote:
Gmoney08 wrote:Interesting that the Royals have the lowest expected wins out of the AL.

Also surprised to see the Dodgers odds so high after this Giants offseason.

The top 4 expected win totals are also all out of the NL.


I know the projections clump a lot of data towards the median and its obviously expected one of those AL teams will out perform their projections and end up with a better record than a couple if not all of the NL top 4.


Top of my head the AL doesn't have any truly awful teams to beat up(Maybe the Twins?), whereas the NL has them in spades.


The Vegas O/U's that have been released show that also. I think there were six NL teams with a lower O/U than every AL team. The NL is clearly the haves and have nots whereas nobody knows what's going to happen in the AL.
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