Cubswin11 wrote: Regular Show wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Even tho Javy has made good strides I think Russell has as good a ceiling and much more easily attainable
I think or used to think Russell had a super high ceiling that he was capable of reaching someday, but I don't feel that way anymore. I don't think A. Russell is our B. Larkin v2.0, but instead is our version of B. Crawford w/o the long, flowing majestic hair.
I think Baez has the much higher ceiling, but I also doubt he'll ever reach it. Both are still valuable -- just not as valuable as Lindor, Seager or Correa.
I don't overly disagree, but I'd like to think this is a bottoming out point for Russell and an upswing is coming. I think he can still reach the Seager/Lindor class easier than Javy can. I hope a lot of Russell's drop off can be explained by the shoulder (hopefully nothing serious) and whatever was going on at home. And I'm not dismissing the DV stuff (if that's true F him) and even without it he's still a dickbag but still has/had to rightfully face some consequences for decisions he's made and has had that carry over to the field (again all brought on by idiot decisions/judgement best case scenario, worst case he's a wife beater and can go horsefeathers off for whatever we can get in a trade).
Yeah, Russell is still very, very valuable, and is likely quite a bit better than this. At least a 3-4 win player. And by bWAR, he'll still be that this year due to his 13 DRS.
Baez is not the shortstop Russell is and has a career .652 OPS vs right-handed pitching which you'd be asking him to face more as the everyday shortstop. You're also then making the second base defense worse, given Baez is currently starting a few times a week there.
Unless the Cubs know more about this DV situation/have character concerns, it's hard to see a scenario where they trade him now, or even in the next few years.
Even Russell's probably biggest known critic has him ranked 40th on the new trade value rankings (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-tra ... -31-to-40/
If this was just Dave’s Top 50 Franchise Players or something, Russell might not be on this list. I’ve maintained some skepticism over the years about his eventual offensive upside, given his moderate power and low contact rates. His poor start to 2017 isn’t helping the idea that the bat is headed in the right direction. But feedback from friends in the game suggested that his stock within MLB is still pretty high, with multiple reminders that this is a guy who put up +7 WAR at ages 21-22, and he doesn’t need to crush the ball to be an elite player given his defense.
As one friend put it, he’s already pretty close to being Brandon Crawford, and there is still upside for more. And the 30-year-old Brandon Crawford almost made this list despite being making $15 million per year for his decline phase. So a younger, cheaper version with remaining potential is something teams would still love to have, despite his early-season struggles. And it’s why the Cubs, to this point, aren’t making him available, even with an internal replacement in Javier Baez and a glaring need for another starting pitcher.
As for the domestic-violence accusations, which are certainly disturbing, the Aroldis Chapman trade last summer showed there isn’t a lot of evidence that teams are backing away from acquiring talented players because of these problems. While I can wish that weren’t the case, the reality in MLB right now is that acquiring talent still wins out in nearly every decision, and Russell is still a very talented young shortstop. Because this project attempts to measure what MLB is valuing, and not what I’m valuing, Russell still ranks fairly highly here, despite his current on- and off-field issues.