Cubswin11 wrote:It came up in the GT today but thought I'd post it here to keep the discussion going. The results haven't been great but the process has been really good by Russell so far this year and good things should start happening soon. As the Duke'ster and I pointed out Russell this year... He had a 15% BB and K rate going in to today, that's good. His Contact% is up and his O-Swing% is way down. He had a 29% LD rate, which is 8% higher than his career average and he did it by cutting down his GB rate by 9% over his career average, that's a very good and positive indicator. He is hitting for a little too much soft contact and his IFF% is high but he also has the highest % of hard hit balls he's ever had in his career, 7% above his career rate. If he can shift some of that soft contact for even medium contact good things are going to start to happen. He's putting himself in good spots, he just isn't executing as much as he should and can on balls in the zone yet.
Even if we assume the K and BB rate go 5% the wrong way (~10% BB rate ~20% K rate when the season ends) if he keeps doing what he's doing for even a healthy 145 games, plays great defense, and the batted ball profile bounces a bit from weak to medium or hard contact we could be in for a breakout year. If he BABIPS just around his career .295 rate (which should go up with some of the positive indicators) we could be in for a 20 HR .260/.350/mid .400's slash line with elite defense as a median projection, that's a 4+ WAR player.
Edit: I'll add if he continues what he's doing with even a little wrong way movement on the K/BB rate mentioned above but he puts up .320-.330ish BABIP (which shouldn't be crazy out of the question) he's basically Corey Seagar from last year.
I know this is all projecting good and wishful things but there’s real reasons to believe it and why look at the negative side of things when you can look for the positive things in life.
When you're right, you're right.