Addison Russell

User avatar
Tim
Hall of Fame
Posts: 45030
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2003 5:02 pm
Location: Naperville, IL
x 77
x 2338
Contact:

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby Tim » Wed Aug 24, 2016 5:58 am

It would be really stupid to fight a guy named "Duke".
1 x
Spoiler: show

Image

User avatar
philosophizer75
All-Star
Posts: 1073
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 4:45 am
Location: Maryland
x 266
x 250

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby philosophizer75 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:21 am

Nah, you're just a smelly homer. Lez fite.


For real though, Addy has been absurdly good. I don't give a hoot if fangraphs rates him lower, I'll just keep on being thrilled with the contributions I can see him giving to the team every day.
1 x
\:D/ wubalubaCUBCUB! \:D/

When Schwarber wins the WS with a big fat dong and uses his bat to club to death every player on the other team and half their fans, I expect every one of these talking heads to defend him. -yanrslatr

Gmoney08
All-Star
Posts: 1255
Joined: Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:08 am
x 79
x 183

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby Gmoney08 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:37 am

Derwood wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Here, let me express my pleasure in the most terrifying way possible:

Image


Image


So Joe West is a Russell fan.
0 x

User avatar
Duke Silver
Superstar
Posts: 11349
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2014 6:45 am
x 12501
x 9099

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby Duke Silver » Wed Aug 24, 2016 7:02 am

To continue my rant (and this is a rant I've already went on in some other thread earlier this year)...

This has to do with what types of ground balls are advantageous for infielders looking to boost their advanced defensive stats. If you read my article looking into Addi's defense through the prism of Statcast, you know what I'm talking about. I talked about these types of batted balls in my last article about Cy Hendricks, too. Most ground balls are kinda fluky plays for the defense. A lot depends on defensive alignment and the hitter's speed, etc. There are but a few types of ground balls that carry a positive run value. These are balls hit really hard and on a low line. A ball hit really hard and nearly parallel to the ground is extremely difficult to stop.

Anyway, I showed in my article about Addi that he is amazing at stopping these balls. Nearly all of these plays are going to be highlight reel plays. Highlight reel plays are very good for your advanced defensive stats. You got rewarded more for making tougher plays, because those are plays that most of the time don't get made. You don't get docked very much for not making them, though, because you shouldn't be expected to make those plays.

So let's go back to those plays I showed in that article and look at updated rankings. We'll mess around with the parameters a little, to include as much data as possible.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast ... 2=#results
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast ... 2=#results
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast ... t=#results
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast ... t=#results

It doesn't matter too much. He's still the clear best at stopping these balls. We can widen our net a little to make it a little easier for the mere mortals to make plays on some balls that are just a little easier, and they still can't compete. But let's go back to the one showing all balls hit at least 100 mph and between 0 and 9° vertical launch angle and -2 and 23° horizontal launch angle.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast ... t=#results
Addi's had the fewest chances at these balls of anyone. So while he and Brandon Crawford both get credit for stopping 17 of these balls, Brandon Crawford doesn't get it held against him too much that he let 8 more of them go by, since you wouldn't expect him to make those plays. You can look through all of these links and Addi's had the fewest chances in nearly all of them.

Addi's getting screwed by his pitchers giving up so much weak contact. It doesn't matter too much, but it's happening. There are other plays that also rack up decent chunks of value -- the slower balls where you have to range way over to get. Those are the "Addi Slide" plays. And they will help him out. I am nitpicking. I can't search for those plays with what is available to the public. But, he's had plenty of chances to look good defensively. And he turns those chances into outs better than anyone.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast ... 2=#results

I still think he's being underrated, though, thanks to the amount of weak contact coming at him.

If you look at Adam Eaton's season, he's been very good defensively. He's made more highlight reel plays than anyone. But, he's not that good. He's very good, but he's been fortunate to have the opportunity to make so many highlight reel plays. He's had more balls hit into what you could call his "highlight reel zone" than anyone. The more difficult plays that you get a chance at, the better you can make yourself look.

Eaton has made those plays and saved those runs, though. If you want to know how many runs he's saved, it's right there for you. And since Addi maybe hasn't had as many chances to save runs, well, he hasn't saved those hypothetical runs. You can't give him credit for saving runs on plays that don't exist. But DRS and UZR both are probably underselling his true talent level.
6 x

User avatar
sneakypower
Javy Baez Fanclub President
Posts: 11758
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:58 am
Location: behind the boathouse
x 567
x 1005

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby sneakypower » Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:04 pm

Duke Silver wrote:I'm to the point where I am going to revolt against Fangraphs' WAR this year by substituting DRS in instead of UZR in their formula. It's really simple, just take the difference in runs between the two and divide by this year's "runs per WAR," which is at 9.69, and tack that on. So, Addi's actually at 4.1 WAR after tonight. Don't piss me off by saying he's at 3.4 or I will fight you.

doing this:
Corey Seager 5.6
Francisco Lindor 4.9
Brandon Crawford 4.5
Addison Russell 4.1
Carlos Correa 4.0
Jonathan Villar 3.9
Trevor Story 3.4
Aledmys Diaz 2.9
Xander Bogaerts 2.7
Zack Cozart 2.7
3 x

User avatar
UMFan83
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 77219
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 8:42 pm
Location: Southport Ave
x 2751
x 4200
Contact:

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:24 pm

Duke Silver wrote:To continue my rant (and this is a rant I've already went on in some other thread earlier this year)...


I'm like super glad you joined our message board
4 x
Win it for Fred

BigSlick
Superstar
Posts: 13884
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2006 7:04 pm
x 2387
x 407

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby BigSlick » Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:26 pm

I love Duke.

I also love that Addy's line is getting more and more aesthetically pleasing. .251-.336-.445 with a 108 OPS+. Don't ever leave me.
1 x
Image
"The only good sabermetrician is a dead one." --Andrew Jackson, 1776.

I have to admit its getting better...it can't get no worse - The Beatles (On the Cubs)

User avatar
Andy
Hall of Fame
Posts: 31708
Joined: Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:02 am
Location: West Michigan
x 562

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby Andy » Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:35 pm

He's going to hit 20-25 dongs the next 5 years with elite defense and how's Jeff Samardzija doing, I forgot
2 x
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:ITS THE THUGGISH RUGGISH BONE FOR GODS SAKES

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 60894
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 8021
x 4832

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby David » Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:36 pm

how far off is the hybrid fWAR + DRS from bWAR anyway? isn't that the key difference between the two (for position players)?
1 x
Image

The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 55751
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 4:23 pm
Location: Greater St. Louis
x 434
x 5975

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Aug 24, 2016 4:26 pm

David wrote:how far off is the hybrid fWAR + DRS from bWAR anyway? isn't that the key difference between the two (for position players)?


I'm not intimately familiar with bWAR, but I would guess not far off. Russell is at 4.0 bWAR, Seager at 5.4.
1 x

User avatar
Duke Silver
Superstar
Posts: 11349
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2014 6:45 am
x 12501
x 9099

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby Duke Silver » Wed Aug 24, 2016 7:42 pm

David wrote:how far off is the hybrid fWAR + DRS from bWAR anyway? isn't that the key difference between the two (for position players)?


Not very far off. That's the big difference. There are a few other minor things in there. But, that's the biggie. But, again, I don't want to go there for it. I like the layout at Fangraphs more and I'm more comfortable with it. And I like my pitching WAR based on FIP rather than ERA.
1 x

User avatar
Derwood
Stall Monitor
Posts: 68371
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 4:44 pm
Location: 375 Miles East of Wrigley
x 1036
x 2031

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby Derwood » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:26 pm

One more hot series like he's been having and he might lead the team in RBI when September starts
0 x

NOLA
All-Star
Posts: 3751
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2003 3:17 am
Location: Bywater, New Orleans
x 615
x 392
Contact:

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby NOLA » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:45 pm

Andy wrote:He's going to hit 20-25 dongs the next 5 years with elite defense and how's Jeff Samardzija doing, I forgot

He's still contemplating how that Cubs team would have become a juggernaut led by him and Scott Feldman.
0 x

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 60894
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 8021
x 4832

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby David » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:48 pm

i still remember when we were all pining for archie bradley and we were thinking there was no way we'd get a return that good for shark

then we got addy out of horsefeathering nowhere
0 x
Image

The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

Thed Hoyerstein
All-Star
Posts: 1274
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2012 3:25 pm
Location: Old Town
x 295
x 327

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby Thed Hoyerstein » Thu Aug 25, 2016 1:56 pm

David wrote:i still remember when we were all pining for archie bradley and we were thinking there was no way we'd get a return that good for shark

then we got addy out of [expletive] nowhere


Image
2 x
“So my threshold is: ‘Is this a noodle?’”

User avatar
Duke Silver
Superstar
Posts: 11349
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2014 6:45 am
x 12501
x 9099

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby Duke Silver » Sat Aug 27, 2016 9:46 am

So, according to UZR, Addi's apparently saved 4.7 runs in his last two games.

Image

He is now at 11.8 runs saved. This ranks third in UZR among shortstops, behind Lindor and Crawford. That puts him at 3.8 fWAR, which moves him above Bogaerts, and among the elite-tier shortstops. The UZR guys clearly took my haranguing to heart and rectified this matter by retroactively assigning correct value on past plays.

Image
4 x

TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5828
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 397
x 487

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:58 pm

David wrote:i still remember when we were all pining for archie bradley and we were thinking there was no way we'd get a return that good for shark

then we got addy out of [expletive] nowhere


I wanted Gary Sanchez, but Russell was in the same bucket as a top tier position player prospect and even more highly ranked. Those were the PSD days.
0 x
Spoiler: show
Image

User avatar
Careless
Hall of Fame
Posts: 26074
Joined: Wed Aug 06, 2003 12:27 am
Location: Chicago
x 242
x 51
Contact:

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby Careless » Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:08 am

how has this not been bumped tonight? Amazing angle he took on that.
0 x
We are doomed.

NotSoSober
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5120
Joined: Wed Apr 09, 2008 3:58 am
x 7
x 303

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby NotSoSober » Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:15 am

Russell referring to Bryant as "that kid" numerous times in the Scott Van Pelt interview right after the game makes him even more awesome
0 x

User avatar
sneakypower
Javy Baez Fanclub President
Posts: 11758
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:58 am
Location: behind the boathouse
x 567
x 1005

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby sneakypower » Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:21 pm

The 106 feet he raced to make the catch was the farthest Statcast™ has tracked a shortstop who made a catch on a ball with a hang time of less than 5.5 seconds.

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/1988 ... eat-catch/
3 x

User avatar
sneakypower
Javy Baez Fanclub President
Posts: 11758
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:58 am
Location: behind the boathouse
x 567
x 1005

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby sneakypower » Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:11 pm

do not be alarmed but in his last 50 games Addison Russell is playing at a 36 HR, 150 RBI pace (600 AB)
3 x

User avatar
Derwood
Stall Monitor
Posts: 68371
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 4:44 pm
Location: 375 Miles East of Wrigley
x 1036
x 2031

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby Derwood » Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:44 pm

sneakypower wrote:do not be alarmed but in his last 50 games Addison Russell is playing at a 36 HR, 150 RBI pace (600 AB)


yeah but only hitting .254 so.....
0 x

User avatar
TBS Playoffs Insider
Turdologist
Posts: 32672
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2003 7:57 am
x 2316
x 5988
Contact:

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:40 am

Derwood wrote:
sneakypower wrote:do not be alarmed but in his last 50 games Addison Russell is playing at a 36 HR, 150 RBI pace (600 AB)


yeah but only hitting .254 so.....


every chicago sports talk radio caller is gonna be real confused how to feel about him
0 x
Duke Silver wrote:You've never been right about anything. You bitch and moan at the slightest hint of things not going right ... Suck my ass, you whiny little bitch.

BigSlick
Superstar
Posts: 13884
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2006 7:04 pm
x 2387
x 407

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby BigSlick » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:48 am

Batting average doesn't matter for meatballs, if and only if, you're talking about Todd Frazier
0 x
Image
"The only good sabermetrician is a dead one." --Andrew Jackson, 1776.

I have to admit its getting better...it can't get no worse - The Beatles (On the Cubs)

User avatar
Ding Dong Johnson
Crap Bag
Posts: 34075
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:42 am
Location: Durnsville
x 812
x 5554

Re: Addison Russell is awesome and deserves a thread

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:53 am

Bunts Lick Butts wrote:
Derwood wrote:
sneakypower wrote:do not be alarmed but in his last 50 games Addison Russell is playing at a 36 HR, 150 RBI pace (600 AB)


yeah but only hitting .254 so.....


every chicago sports talk radio caller is gonna be real confused how to feel about him

"he might be a little better than Castro was on defense, but he can't hit. he should be batting 9th like last year"
0 x
Image


Return to “Cubs Discussions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: WrigleyField 22 and 10 guests