2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

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2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:44 pm

The 2018 Cubs ZiPS projections are out: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zi ... cago-cubs/

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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:52 pm

Depth chart comparison to the rest of the division:

Cubs - 50 WAR
Cardinals: 40 WAR
Brewers: ~35 WAR (theirs came out pre-Yelich and Cain, but that 35 is probably the optimistic number)
Reds: 32 WAR
Pirates: ~30 WAR (theirs came out before the Cole/McCutchen trades, 30 is definitely the optimistic number)
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby javy knows my name » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:44 pm

3 for Hendricks and Contreras seems bearish to me. Willy breaks out for 5 this year.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:49 pm

javy knows my name wrote:3 for Hendricks and Contreras seems bearish to me. Willy breaks out for 5 this year.


Hendricks is definitely going to be underrated by FIP-based WAR, but that probably balances out that Lester is probably a longer shot for 4 WAR himself.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:57 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Depth chart comparison to the rest of the division:

Cubs - 50 WAR
Cardinals: 40 WAR
Brewers: ~35 WAR (theirs came out pre-Yelich and Cain, but that 35 is probably the optimistic number)
Reds: 32 WAR
Pirates: ~30 WAR (theirs came out before the Cole/McCutchen trades, 30 is definitely the optimistic number)


And to compare to 2017, last year their projection was 51 WAR, although that was before the Soler/Davis trade

Biggest differences between last year and this year are Bryant, Rizzo and Russell and the catcher position all project to be 1 win less and last year's pen was projected to be worth 2 wins (probably 3, maybe 4 with Davis), this year 5.

Sign Darvish and this team is probably right on par with last year's team going into the season.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby big ball chunky time » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:14 pm

I think they're underselling the MIF and OF a little, as well as Willy who is a healthy season away from a 4.5 WAR year. If we do end up signing Darvish that is a pretty bad ass little roster.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:24 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Depth chart comparison to the rest of the division:

Cubs - 50 WAR
Cardinals: 40 WAR
Brewers: ~35 WAR (theirs came out pre-Yelich and Cain, but that 35 is probably the optimistic number)
Reds: 32 WAR
Pirates: ~30 WAR (theirs came out before the Cole/McCutchen trades, 30 is definitely the optimistic number)



Other NL competitors:

Dodgers - 49 WAR
Arizona - 34 WAR
Colorado - 32 WAR

Nationals are the one team with ZiPS yet to be released.

And in the AL (which has an extra spot on the depth chart for DH):

Houston - 52 WAR
Cleveland - 48 WAR
Boston - 46 WAR
Yankees - 46 WAR
Angels - 36 WAR

In other words, the Cubs are a Darvish away from having the best on-paper team in baseball, maybe even if they *only* added Arrieta too.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby squally1313 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:31 pm

Cobb is projected for 2.5, which probably gives you another 1-1.5 over Montgomery when you move him to the bullpen.

Given that most of these projections appear pessimistic, the one that stood out in a good way was Quintana's. 4.9 is better than he's put up in the last three years. I'd love if he took the mostly fictional role of 'staff ace' this year, especially because I just can't see Lester pitching at a high level throughout the year at this point in his career.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby sneakypower » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:55 pm

9 WAR for the OF is honestly shocking
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Bertz » Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:01 pm

ZiPS looks to, on a per inning basis, really like Alec Mills and kind of like Rob Zastryzny, which is good news for our rotation depth.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:56 pm

Bryant is going to hit a new level of offense and have his best season yet
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby The_Achiever » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:04 pm

Seeing all those crooked numbers is honestly porn to me. With no championship hangover (and hopefully one more starter) this team is gonna be a monster.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:11 pm

squally1313 wrote:I just can't see Lester pitching at a high level throughout the year at this point in his career.


I don’t get why people keep saying that. 34 for a starting pitcher is not exactly his peak but he seems like he fits the mold of a player who can still pitch very effectively well into his 30s. He is only 1 season removed from arguably the best year in his career. Last year was a down year but he also battled injuries for much of the year and he seemed to be stronger and more effective when he came back from his DL stint in Sept/October. In addition, his xFIP suggests he was better than his mainstream numbers suggest. He’s had seasons worse than last year and bounced back.

I get it he’s in his mid-30s, is coming off a down year, and has a lot of miles on his arm. But I wouldn’t quite shut the door on Lester as a TOR pitcher just yet.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Schwarber Fan » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:51 pm

Pretty funny to see Ron Santo, Geovany Soto, and Chili Davis in the comps.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby squally1313 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:53 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
squally1313 wrote:I just can't see Lester pitching at a high level throughout the year at this point in his career.


I don’t get why people keep saying that. 34 for a starting pitcher is not exactly his peak but he seems like he fits the mold of a player who can still pitch very effectively well into his 30s. He is only 1 season removed from arguably the best year in his career. Last year was a down year but he also battled injuries for much of the year and he seemed to be stronger and more effective when he came back from his DL stint in Sept/October. In addition, his xFIP suggests he was better than his mainstream numbers suggest. He’s had seasons worse than last year and bounced back.

I get it he’s in his mid-30s, is coming off a down year, and has a lot of miles on his arm. But I wouldn’t quite shut the door on Lester as a TOR pitcher just yet.


His fWAR the last four years are 5.6, 5.0, 4.4, and 2.7. I don't mean to get into that common argument about the definition of a TOR pitcher...3.5 WAR would have been good for 18th in baseball last year, so by definition at least a dozen teams would have considered that performance at an ace level. But obviously the Cubs have their sights set higher than most other teams. Obviously we can't expect anyone to repeat a 2015 Arrieta season, but in 2015 the Cubs got a combined 12.3 from Jake/Lester. In 2016, it was 8.2, with what is likely a career year from Hendricks. 2017 was 5.1. This is a long way of saying that in 2015 and 2016 we had at least one, arguably two pitchers that pitched like top 10 pitchers in baseball. While I expect Lester and Hendricks to remain top 25ish pitchers, I think it'd be overly pessimistic to expect top 10 production from them. Quintana has the talent, track level, and appropriate age to get there, so I'm happy to see Zips expects that level of performance.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:52 am

UMFan83 wrote:He is only 1 season removed from arguably the best year in his career.


This is some...interesting math.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby David » Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:54 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:He is only 1 season removed from arguably the best year in his career.


This is some...interesting math.


Just depends how much weight you put into raw ERA...it was his lowest in his career, but there's obv a host of other factors that make a few other of his seasons more impressive.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:12 pm

David wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:He is only 1 season removed from arguably the best year in his career.


This is some...interesting math.


Just depends how much weight you put into raw ERA...


About as much as raw milk.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby UMFan83 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:09 pm

David wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:He is only 1 season removed from arguably the best year in his career.


This is some...interesting math.


Just depends how much weight you put into raw ERA...it was his lowest in his career, but there's obv a host of other factors that make a few other of his seasons more impressive.


I did say arguably mostly because I didn’t feel like looking up his peripherals.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby David » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:11 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
David wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
This is some...interesting math.


Just depends how much weight you put into raw ERA...it was his lowest in his career, but there's obv a host of other factors that make a few other of his seasons more impressive.


I did say arguably mostly because I didn’t feel like looking up his peripherals.


what site are you still looking up stats on that doesn't have them and why aren't you using fangraphs for that
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby UMFan83 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:35 pm

David wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:
David wrote:
Just depends how much weight you put into raw ERA...it was his lowest in his career, but there's obv a host of other factors that make a few other of his seasons more impressive.


I did say arguably mostly because I didn’t feel like looking up his peripherals.


what site are you still looking up stats on that doesn't have them and why aren't you using fangraphs for that


I didn’t use anything to determine he had a good season in 2016. I always go to fangraphs for stats
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:38 pm

He had 19 wins (tied for most in his career) and had the lowest ERA in any season for his career in 2016. Easily the best season of his career, morons!
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby squally1313 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:31 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:He had 19 wins (tied for most in his career) and had the lowest ERA in any season for his career in 2016. Easily the best season of his career, morons!

Plus he won the World Series, so by definition it's at least tied for the best season of his career, along with his other WS wins. Just like it was Heyward's best season.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby squally1313 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:34 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
David wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:
I did say arguably mostly because I didn’t feel like looking up his peripherals.


what site are you still looking up stats on that doesn't have them and why aren't you using fangraphs for that


I didn’t use anything to determine he had a good season in 2016. I always go to fangraphs for stats


So you brought up 2016 (incorrectly) being the best year of his career, justify it by saying you didn't feel like looking up his peripherals, and then reference his 2017 xFIP being better than his ERA. Got it.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby UMFan83 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:49 pm

squally1313 wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:
David wrote:
what site are you still looking up stats on that doesn't have them and why aren't you using fangraphs for that


I didn’t use anything to determine he had a good season in 2016. I always go to fangraphs for stats


So you brought up 2016 (incorrectly) being the best year of his career, justify it by saying you didn't feel like looking up his peripherals, and then reference his 2017 xFIP being better than his ERA. Got it.



Yep that’s right.

I said arguably and this is missing the point of the post. Your initial response was fine and I agreed with it.
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