2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:33 pm

Duke Silver wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Darvish has to bump us to the best team in MLB by ZiPS, right?


I'm pretty sure it actually bumped the Brewers up to the best team in MLB. That's how these things work.


The Brewers are the best team by default for continuing to trick Theo into acquiring valuable players
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby David » Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:46 pm

Forgot about Davenport Projections...

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

NL Cent Won Lost Runs Runs A
CHC 95 67 804 673
MIL 87 75 812 749
STL 86 76 754 711
PIT 75 87 691 752
CIN 73 89 729 815



moved it to keep it from getting lost at the bottom of the page
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby David » Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:24 pm

win total bets are out and the cubs are set at 94.5 (by whoever they're citing on this site)

https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/mlb-season-win-totals
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:29 pm

David wrote:win total bets are out and the cubs are set at 94.5 (by whoever they're citing on this site)

https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/mlb-season-win-totals

Give me the under on the Yanks and Brewers, pronto.
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Re: RE: Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:39 pm

David wrote:Forgot about Davenport Projections...

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

NL Cent Won Lost Runs Runs A
CHC 95 67 804 673
MIL 87 75 812 749
STL 86 76 754 711
PIT 75 87 691 752
CIN 73 89 729 815



moved it to keep it from getting lost at the bottom of the page
It's gonna be real stressful, fighting for HFA
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Re: RE: Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby squally1313 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:43 pm

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:
David wrote:Forgot about Davenport Projections...

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

NL Cent Won Lost Runs Runs A
CHC 95 67 804 673
MIL 87 75 812 749
STL 86 76 754 711
PIT 75 87 691 752
CIN 73 89 729 815



moved it to keep it from getting lost at the bottom of the page
It's gonna be real stressful, fighting for HFA


While I respect the 8 game cushion, horsefeathers at the Brewers outscoring our offense this year.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Bluescale » Sat Feb 17, 2018 8:58 pm

David wrote:Forgot about Davenport Projections...

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

NL Cent Won Lost Runs Runs A
CHC 95 67 804 673
MIL 87 75 812 749
STL 86 76 754 711
PIT 75 87 691 752
CIN 73 89 729 815


I'll go on record and say that if our run differential is only +131, things did not go as expected.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby CubinNY » Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:20 pm

David wrote:Forgot about Davenport Projections...

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

NL Cent Won Lost Runs Runs A
CHC 95 67 804 673
MIL 87 75 812 749
STL 86 76 754 711
PIT 75 87 691 752
CIN 73 89 729 815



moved it to keep it from getting lost at the bottom of the page
if the Brewers win 87 games, I’ll eat my hat.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby CubinNY » Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:24 pm

DiceMan4221 wrote:
David wrote:win total bets are out and the cubs are set at 94.5 (by whoever they're citing on this site)

https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/mlb-season-win-totals

Give me the under on the Yanks and Brewers, pronto.

I think the Yankees is a tough one, but I’d wager a lot on the under for the Brewers and a lot on the over for the Giants. I don’t think the Dodgers will win 104 either, but the Brewers are a lock.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:39 pm

My bookie/site doesn’t have O/U yet but based on what I see I like Brewers (gonna wait on them until they add a SP because it will probably get bet up), Angels, Dodgers, Rockies, Orioles, Rangers, Jays, and Cardinals (one of them or Brewers is going under and a decent chance for both) unders then like Reds, Giants, and Nats overs.

Also I doubt this bet is out there but if I could get like +300 odds I’d bet on the Reds finishing above at least one of the Brewers or Cardinals
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Bertz » Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:33 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:My bookie/site doesn’t have O/U yet but based on what I see I like Brewers (gonna wait on them until they add a SP because it will probably get bet up), Angels, Dodgers, Rockies, Orioles, Rangers, Jays, and Cardinals (one of them or Brewers is going under and a decent chance for both) unders then like Reds, Giants, and Nats overs.

Also I doubt this bet is out there but if I could get like +300 odds I’d bet on the Reds finishing above at least one of the Brewers or Cardinals


Yeah, the Reds finishing 3rd in the division is one of my hot takes/bold predictions for this year. In June when Senzel is up they will have a playoff caliber group of position players, and I think their pitching staff is still well below average but will no longer be the tire fire it has been recently.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:58 pm

Bertz wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:My bookie/site doesn’t have O/U yet but based on what I see I like Brewers (gonna wait on them until they add a SP because it will probably get bet up), Angels, Dodgers, Rockies, Orioles, Rangers, Jays, and Cardinals (one of them or Brewers is going under and a decent chance for both) unders then like Reds, Giants, and Nats overs.

Also I doubt this bet is out there but if I could get like +300 odds I’d bet on the Reds finishing above at least one of the Brewers or Cardinals


Yeah, the Reds finishing 3rd in the division is one of my hot takes/bold predictions for this year. In June when Senzel is up they will have a playoff caliber group of position players, and I think their pitching staff is still well below average but will no longer be the tire fire it has been recently.


Same, Reds are doing a sneaky good job turning their roster over.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:44 pm

I'm on board with the Reds making improvements, but I wouldn't quite go that far. Losing Cozart's 5 wins on top of having several position player regression candidates(Gennett, Duvall, Barnhart, Suarez), plus the lack of another team in the division truly tanking(even the Pirates are rebuilding on the fly) means they're still pretty squarely 5th in the division for me.
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Post Count Padder » Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:05 pm

How does Roster Resource calculate their projections? Because it looks like we're gonna win 100 games easily if everybody hits like they predict:

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-chicago-cubs/
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:47 am

Post Count Padder wrote:How does Roster Resource calculate their projections? Because it looks like we're gonna win 100 games easily if everybody hits like they predict:

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-chicago-cubs/


i call them and im like hey here's whats gonna happen mark it down
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:31 pm

Random but TT's post about Zips projections for Kuechel made me look this up, but the Cubs rotation's comps per zips:

Andy Pettite
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
Tim Hudson
Paul Foytack (one of these things is not like the other)
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Re: 2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

Postby Duke Silver » Fri Mar 09, 2018 12:39 am

UMFan83 wrote:Random but TT's post about Zips projections for Kuechel made me look this up, but the Cubs rotation's comps per zips:

Andy Pettite
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
Tim Hudson
Paul Foytack (one of these things is not like the other)


Unlike the others, Paul Foytack was incredibly undervalued because of the environment he pitched in and because of his ability to induce weak contact?
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