Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

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Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Wed May 30, 2018 8:38 pm

Somewhat quietly, Albert Almora has put himself on pace for a 5-ish WAR season in CF as a 24 year old — something that's been done only 21 times since 1990 by a CF between the ages of 20-24. The vast majority of those cases are Sizemore, andruw jones, griffey and mike trout. (those 3 make up 16 of the 21 appearances, the others are 2010 Cargo, 2014 Puig, 2011 mccutchen, 2001 beltran, and 2004 COREY PATTERSON.)

His splits have been pretty clean, but I imagine the final season product may look a little different because it's likely a stretch to assume he'll hit .300 against RHP all year. My favorite stat of his so far is that in 46 ABs against LHP, he's struck out twice.

Anyway, I think it's cool to see him looking like a guy who might work out considering the FO's infatuation with him and his somewhat ugly path up the minors.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby UMFan83 » Wed May 30, 2018 8:41 pm

I have nothing to add except

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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed May 30, 2018 8:47 pm

The walk rate is better than I would've guessed, and improving. If he's taking his walks that's gonna mean real good things.

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I'm still a skeptic of pretty much any hitter with his offensive profile, but there's definitely a 'good enough' point where he doesn't need a 12% BB% to be useful given his defense.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby Bertz » Wed May 30, 2018 8:48 pm

I really like Almora. I feel like the switch flipped against RHP in August of last year, and through ~3 months of play he hasn't really gone backwards yet, so it's looking more and more likely those gains are real. The BABIP will come down but even still something like .290/.340/.450 with legit defense is looking more and more reasonable as an expectation.

It does need to be pointed out that Statcast HATES his offense. But those metrics haven't shown to be any more reliable/predictive than the stuff we've had for a while now, so it's not a death sentence.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby Brian707 » Wed May 30, 2018 8:54 pm

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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 30, 2018 8:59 pm

.379 BABIP

Right now he seems like a high contact guy in a peak power year at a peak power age
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed May 30, 2018 9:24 pm

Yeah, I worry about his peripherals coming home to roost, but in the Yelich acquisition thread this spring, I said I was confident the Almora/Happ platoon would match Yelich's production for dirt cheap. Looks like I may have lucked into a decent call. I wasn't even an Almora fan coming into this season.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby UMFan83 » Wed May 30, 2018 9:24 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:.379 BABIP

Right now he seems like a high contact guy in a peak power year at a peak power age


His BABIP has always trended high. Not .379 but it was .338 last year. If there's some regression that is fine as long as he is contributing on both sides of the plate and continuing to play defense at a high rate.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby Duke Silver » Wed May 30, 2018 9:30 pm

Bertz wrote:I really like Almora. I feel like the switch flipped against RHP in August of last year, and through ~3 months of play he hasn't really gone backwards yet, so it's looking more and more likely those gains are real. The BABIP will come down but even still something like .290/.340/.450 with legit defense is looking more and more reasonable as an expectation.

It does need to be pointed out that Statcast HATES his offense. But those metrics haven't shown to be any more reliable/predictive than the stuff we've had for a while now, so it's not a death sentence.


I believe in Statcast stuff a lot more than some others. And I think he has been incredibly fortunate this year. His BABIP is really high and he hasn't hit the ball hard. But he was like that in the first half last year, too, and then he started hitting the ball harder in the second half and his actual numbers matched up a lot better. I hope he can get back to that -- a few more dingers and some balls in the gaps.

He does some things well. A good amount of line drives, not many pop ups, a lot of infield hits. But he also hits a lot of lazy fly balls for a guy that isn't trying to get the ball in the air. Hopefully he can keep making minor improvements with his plate discipline and start putting better pitches in play. It might help with some exit velocity and launch angle issues.

But the main thing has been the defensive improvements we've seen. Keep this up and he can be a fine player that is just putting the ball in play a lot and not doing much else.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 30, 2018 9:51 pm

UMFan83 wrote:His BABIP has always trended high. Not .379 but it was .338 last year. If there's some regression that is fine as long as he is contributing on both sides of the plate and continuing to play defense at a high rate.


It's not a question of if but when. For me he's got the same skills he has always had but is in the meat of a typical prime (especially for power) in a very hitter friendly league run environment. This isn't exactly the first time we've seem a high contact ARL prospect turn in competent or better slash lines fueled by a BABIP he's probably not going to maintain for a full season let alone multiple years.

His biggest selling point, still, for me is that he's a cheap, RH, glove first OF in an expensive, LH, and bat first OF. Strong complimentary player on this roster right now maybe even through age 26, longer term he's a second or lower division starter somewhere else.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby Thrilho » Wed May 30, 2018 10:05 pm

Duke Silver wrote:And I think he has been incredibly fortunate this year. His BABIP is really high and he hasn't hit the ball hard.

This was true for April when he had a 23% hard hit and every squibber to the right was finding a hole, but in May he’s got a 34% hard hit. I haven’t looked at exit velocity or the statcast but however they calculate hard hit rate, KB is only at 37% for his career so 34% seems pretty good.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed May 30, 2018 10:07 pm

The one thing I'll stand up for with Almora's BABIP is that he's been much better about going to right field on pitches to the outside, and even though those mostly aren't frozen ropes they're often singles because of the approach. Much rather him letting the ball travel and looping it to right than rolling over and pounding groundballs to SS.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 30, 2018 10:07 pm

Thrilho wrote:This was true for April when he had a 23% hard hit and every squibber to the right was finding a hole, but in May he’s got a 34% hard hit. I haven’t looked at exit velocity or the statcast but however they calculate hard hit rate, KB is only at 37% for his career so 34% seems pretty good.


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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby Thrilho » Wed May 30, 2018 10:15 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Thrilho wrote:This was true for April when he had a 23% hard hit and every squibber to the right was finding a hole, but in May he’s got a 34% hard hit. I haven’t looked at exit velocity or the statcast but however they calculate hard hit rate, KB is only at 37% for his career so 34% seems pretty good.


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Keep hammering on Almora and I’ll just be sitting back waiting for you to fade out of the conversation when keeps having a valuable career as a first division starter with the first division Cubs.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby Bull » Wed May 30, 2018 10:34 pm

Bertz wrote:I really like Almora. I feel like the switch flipped against RHP in August of last year, and through ~3 months of play he hasn't really gone backwards yet, so it's looking more and more likely those gains are real. The BABIP will come down but even still something like .290/.340/.450 with legit defense is looking more and more reasonable as an expectation.

It does need to be pointed out that Statcast HATES his offense. But those metrics haven't shown to be any more reliable/predictive than the stuff we've had for a while now, so it's not a death sentence.

You know who else STATCAST hated? Kirby Puckett.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed May 30, 2018 10:38 pm

I'm assuming he's going to be one of those turds who has an unsustainable stat line for awhile, but if I join the "he's gonna suck" bandwagon, he'll start developing real skills at the exact same rate the fake skills regress to the mean and he continues to be a valuable player regardless.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby Bull » Wed May 30, 2018 10:47 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I'm assuming he's going to be one of those turds who has an unsustainable stat line for awhile, but if I join the "he's gonna suck" bandwagon, he'll start developing real skills at the exact same rate the fake skills regress to the mean and he continues to be a valuable player regardless.

Then do it!
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed May 30, 2018 11:44 pm

Bull wrote:
Bertz wrote:I really like Almora. I feel like the switch flipped against RHP in August of last year, and through ~3 months of play he hasn't really gone backwards yet, so it's looking more and more likely those gains are real. The BABIP will come down but even still something like .290/.340/.450 with legit defense is looking more and more reasonable as an expectation.

It does need to be pointed out that Statcast HATES his offense. But those metrics haven't shown to be any more reliable/predictive than the stuff we've had for a while now, so it's not a death sentence.

You know who else STATCAST hated? Kirby Puckett.


And now he's dead.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 31, 2018 12:11 am

Thrilho wrote:Keep hammering on Almora and I’ll just be sitting back waiting for you to fade out of the conversation when keeps having a valuable [b]career [/b]as a first division starter with the first division Cubs


:shrugs: There’s plenty of circumstance in his favor that makes this possible ranging from his youth, price tag, and more skilled teammates taking the pressure off in a hitter friendly world. The guy’s not an incompetent or crappy player, he’ll be in the league a while, and lots of weird positive things can happen when you have a Kris Bryant caliber player in house...I know the FO is a believer in offense begetting offense going back to their Boston days. Maybe he’s CF Kevin Millar or something
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu May 31, 2018 12:21 am

Tom's just jealous that he can't make Almora one of his rando baseball crushes who plays for another team.
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Re: Albert Almora: Somehow a slow Grady Sizemore?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 31, 2018 12:30 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Thrilho wrote:Keep hammering on Almora and I’ll just be sitting back waiting for you to fade out of the conversation when keeps having a valuable [b]career [/b]as a first division starter with the first division Cubs


:shrugs: There’s plenty of circumstance in his favor that makes this possible ranging from his youth, price tag, and more skilled teammates taking the pressure off in a hitter friendly world. The guy’s not an incompetent or crappy player, he’ll be in the league a while, and lots of weird positive things can happen when you have a Kris Bryant caliber player in house...I know the FO is a believer in offense begetting offense going back to their Boston days. Maybe he’s CF Kevin Millar or something


Bill Mueller is who I was thinking of
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