David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Gmoney08 » Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:33 pm

JennieGarthAlgar wrote:Russell, Happ, Almora and prospects for Mike Trout? Cmon guys


Three starters to above average players in their early 20s cost controlled plus an Amaya & pitching prospect doesnt get you close?

Trout is awesome but these superstar deals never fetch as much as people always guarantee they will cost.

Some teams can offer better prospects that also very well may never end up close to as good as Russell & Happ.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Regular Show » Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:36 pm

Gmoney08 wrote:
JennieGarthAlgar wrote:Russell, Happ, Almora and prospects for Mike Trout? Cmon guys


Three starters to above average players in their early 20s cost controlled plus an Amaya & pitching prospect doesnt get you close?

Trout is awesome but these superstar deals never fetch as much as people always guarantee they will cost.

Some teams can offer better prospects that also very well may never end up close to as good as Russell & Happ.


Trout isn't just a superstar... He's BY FAR the best player in MLB and in his prime. It would take an insane offer for the Angels to even consider trading him.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Gmoney08 » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:49 am

Regular Show wrote:
Gmoney08 wrote:
JennieGarthAlgar wrote:Russell, Happ, Almora and prospects for Mike Trout? Cmon guys


Three starters to above average players in their early 20s cost controlled plus an Amaya & pitching prospect doesnt get you close?

Trout is awesome but these superstar deals never fetch as much as people always guarantee they will cost.

Some teams can offer better prospects that also very well may never end up close to as good as Russell & Happ.


Trout isn't just a superstar... He's BY FAR the best player in MLB and in his prime. It would take an insane offer for the Angels to even consider trading him.


Trouts better but looked what extemely young Arod and Miguel Cabreras fetched in a trade.

Im not saying that 5 for 1 deal gets it done. But 3 young bonafide mlb players that were elite prospects plus 2 more good prospects has to put you in the convo.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby r_mack » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:47 am

Gmoney08 wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
Gmoney08 wrote:
Three starters to above average players in their early 20s cost controlled plus an Amaya & pitching prospect doesnt get you close?

Trout is awesome but these superstar deals never fetch as much as people always guarantee they will cost.

Some teams can offer better prospects that also very well may never end up close to as good as Russell & Happ.


Trout isn't just a superstar... He's BY FAR the best player in MLB and in his prime. It would take an insane offer for the Angels to even consider trading him.


Trouts better but looked what extemely young Arod and Miguel Cabreras fetched in a trade.

Im not saying that 5 for 1 deal gets it done. But 3 young bonafide mlb players that were elite prospects plus 2 more good prospects has to put you in the convo.

Nobody in the idiotic Cubs package proposed above is in the same universe as Alfonso Soriano
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby r_mack » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:53 am

The Cubs can trade Happ, Almora, Russell and their top 5 prospects and that wouldn't be enough to get Mike Trout. The Astros can literally just go to the Angels and offer both their top 10 prospects (Whitley and Tucker) and a few fillers and it would beat that offer. The only way the Cubs have a legit shot if Trout was on the market is if they included Bryant or Baez in a deal.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Duke Silver » Sun Aug 05, 2018 11:40 am

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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Duke Silver » Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:25 am



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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:11 am

I just can't figure this guy out. 6 years toiling in the minors, never really doing that much. starts this year hot at iowa, comes up and looks like the next superstar.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:21 am

minnesotacubsfan wrote:I just can't figure this guy out. 6 years toiling in the minors, never really doing that much. starts this year hot at iowa, comes up and looks like the next superstar.

He made a swing change and is an exit velocity god
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:24 am

it's doom boner night so i might as well point out that bote is likely nothing
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:28 am

17 Seconds wrote:it's doom boner night so i might as well point out that bote is likely nothing

He just needs to be better than LaStella for him to have plenty value for the current crop/window of players. Which I'm fairly certain he's already there.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Regular Show » Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:07 am

17 Seconds wrote:it's doom boner night so i might as well point out that bote is likely nothing


Image

WTF are you going on about??? Bote is already something and big league scouts and teams have already noticed him. Teams wanted to acquire him at the trade deadline and were asking the Cubs about him.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:22 am

Regular Show wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:it's doom boner night so i might as well point out that bote is likely nothing


Image

WTF are you going on about??? Bote is already something and big league scouts and teams have already noticed him. Teams wanted to acquire him at the trade deadline and were asking the Cubs about him.


he's a 25 year old non-prospect with 78 major league plate appearances, and there are posts about him moving bryant off third, wondering why everyone missed on him, calling him the next star, etc. i'm not saying he sucks or that he doesn't have value to the cubs. hopefully he can be a late bloomer and it's possible that he ends up as a derosa/zobrist type, it's just funny to see everyone losing their horsefeathers over him, when this is the type of place that should know not to get excited over a tiny sample size of plate appearances.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:27 am

17 Seconds wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:it's doom boner night so i might as well point out that bote is likely nothing


Image

WTF are you going on about??? Bote is already something and big league scouts and teams have already noticed him. Teams wanted to acquire him at the trade deadline and were asking the Cubs about him.


he's a 25 year old non-prospect with 78 major league plate appearances, and there are posts about him moving bryant off third, wondering why everyone missed on him, calling him the next star, etc. i'm not saying he sucks or that he doesn't have value to the cubs. hopefully he can be a late bloomer and it's possible that he ends up as a derosa/zobrist type, it's just funny to see everyone losing their horsefeathers over him, when this is the type of place that should know not to get excited over a tiny sample size of plate appearances.

It's hard to fake hitting the ball hard and he's doing that better than anyone since he's been up and he's playing solid defense and clearly looks like he has a solid idea and approach at the plate. Yes of course it's ridiculous to think he will ever move Bryant off third but he's shown enough that he's probably one of the better 8 starting options on a given day with where the roster is at now. He's better than Tommy and better than Almora vs RHP and probably Happ, Heyward and Schwarbs vs LHP and at times a better option than Russell depending on the defense you want to run out.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:32 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
Image

WTF are you going on about??? Bote is already something and big league scouts and teams have already noticed him. Teams wanted to acquire him at the trade deadline and were asking the Cubs about him.


he's a 25 year old non-prospect with 78 major league plate appearances, and there are posts about him moving bryant off third, wondering why everyone missed on him, calling him the next star, etc. i'm not saying he sucks or that he doesn't have value to the cubs. hopefully he can be a late bloomer and it's possible that he ends up as a derosa/zobrist type, it's just funny to see everyone losing their horsefeathers over him, when this is the type of place that should know not to get excited over a tiny sample size of plate appearances.

It's hard to fake hitting the ball hard and he's doing that better than anyone since he's been up and he's playing solid defense and clearly looks like he has a solid idea and approach at the plate. Yes of course it's ridiculous to think he will ever move Bryant off third but he's shown enough that he's probably one of the better 8 starting options on a given day with where the roster is at now. He's better than Tommy and better than Almora vs RHP and probably Happ vs LHP and at times a better option than Russell depending on the defense you want to run out.


did you see this post?

minnesotacubsfan wrote:I just can't figure this guy out. 6 years toiling in the minors, never really doing that much. starts this year hot at iowa, comes up and looks like the next superstar.


baseball is littered with guys who do this and then end up turning back into nothing. i'm just wondering why a lot of people have already made the leap from "this guy is providing lots of value to use right now, and it's really helpful" to "this guy is a significant piece going forward"

but really the post was half joking in the first place, which is why i literally used the term doom boner at the start of it. it was an extremely noninflammatory post, so of course it got someone fired up.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:42 am

17 Seconds wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
he's a 25 year old non-prospect with 78 major league plate appearances, and there are posts about him moving bryant off third, wondering why everyone missed on him, calling him the next star, etc. i'm not saying he sucks or that he doesn't have value to the cubs. hopefully he can be a late bloomer and it's possible that he ends up as a derosa/zobrist type, it's just funny to see everyone losing their horsefeathers over him, when this is the type of place that should know not to get excited over a tiny sample size of plate appearances.

It's hard to fake hitting the ball hard and he's doing that better than anyone since he's been up and he's playing solid defense and clearly looks like he has a solid idea and approach at the plate. Yes of course it's ridiculous to think he will ever move Bryant off third but he's shown enough that he's probably one of the better 8 starting options on a given day with where the roster is at now. He's better than Tommy and better than Almora vs RHP and probably Happ vs LHP and at times a better option than Russell depending on the defense you want to run out.


did you see this post?

minnesotacubsfan wrote:I just can't figure this guy out. 6 years toiling in the minors, never really doing that much. starts this year hot at iowa, comes up and looks like the next superstar.


baseball is littered with guys who do this and then end up turning back into nothing. i'm just wondering why a lot of people have already made the leap from "this guy is providing lots of value to use right now, and it's really helpful" to "this guy is a significant piece going forward"

but really the post was half joking in the first place, which is why i literally used the term doom boner at the start of it. it was an extremely noninflammatory post, so of course it got someone fired up.

Yeah I saw that post and responded that he made a noted swing change and is an exit velo god and some scouts really started taking note. And yeah I mostly agreed with you in my response. Nobody is fired up. Just pointed out that there's some things he's doing that's hard to fake/prove he might be more than a guy who disappears in a few weeks and he's also plenty valuable now and likely some sort of piece going forward.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:48 am

I mean, relative to having at least a AAA skillset, there's nothing that wildly hard about hitting the ball hard in a short sample. Hot streaks aren't just bloopers dropping.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:50 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I mean, relative to having at least a AAA skillset, there's nothing that wildly hard about hitting the ball hard in a short sample. Hot streaks aren't just bloopers dropping.

He's hitting the ball harder than anyone since he's been in MLB though and he's also been a exit velo/statcast dude in the minors. It's hard not to be at least something at the major league level with how hard he hits the ball, especially when you add in what appears to be above average defense at a few spots and competent BB/K approach at the plate.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:56 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I mean, relative to having at least a AAA skillset, there's nothing that wildly hard about hitting the ball hard in a short sample. Hot streaks aren't just bloopers dropping.

He's hitting the ball harder than anyone since he's been in MLB though and he's also been a exit velo/statcast dude in the minors. It's hard not to be at least something at the major league level with how hard he hits the ball, especially when you add in what appears to be above average defense at a few spots and competent BB/K approach at the plate.


Yeah I'm pretty sure I've seen guys who put up .836 OPS in the PCL or .809 in AA turn into nothing.

Maybe he's a guy, maybe not. But this belief that exit velocity counters the possibility of positive variance is weird. A big part of positive variance is that sometimes you run into a few extra balls and get a few extra line drives.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:02 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I mean, relative to having at least a AAA skillset, there's nothing that wildly hard about hitting the ball hard in a short sample. Hot streaks aren't just bloopers dropping.

He's hitting the ball harder than anyone since he's been in MLB though and he's also been a exit velo/statcast dude in the minors. It's hard not to be at least something at the major league level with how hard he hits the ball, especially when you add in what appears to be above average defense at a few spots and competent BB/K approach at the plate.


Yeah I'm pretty sure I've seen guys who put up .836 OPS in the PCL or .809 in AA turn into nothing.

Maybe he's a guy, maybe not. But this belief that exit velocity counters the possibility of positive variance is weird. A big part of positive variance is that sometimes you run into a few extra balls and get a few extra line drives.

Well yes there's plenty chance he flames out and it wouldn't be overly weird or unprecedented. And yeah exit velo stuff has it's flaws, but he's been doing it at elite levels for a while now (going back to the minors) after a noted swing change and some of the scouting guys really liking him. I'm willing to relatively buy in he's a thing that's at least a useful bench bat/second division starter. He's not just lucking in to a few extra line drives, he's hitting piss rockets harder than anyone in baseball. It's at least something fun and encouraging to have some optimism about and it's nice to hopefully luck in to one of these random mid 20 year olds from the clouds like the Dodgers and Brewers have the last 2 years.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby soccer10k » Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:35 am

Wasn’t Soler known for hitting the ball really hard? I haven’t taken the time to compare the two as players/prospects so they might be completely different hitters, but I feel like I remember people thinking he’d figure it out in part because of his exit velo.

Bote is also more than a complete zero in the field so he’s got some value there that Soler doesn’t.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Gmoney08 » Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:42 am

minnesotacubsfan wrote:I just can't figure this guy out. 6 years toiling in the minors, never really doing that much. starts this year hot at iowa, comes up and looks like the next superstar.


Not saying hes the real deal but didnt he do pretty well the last 2 years in the minors plus a great Arizona Fall League this past year.

Didnt see much in the media but he had a lil buzz in spring training too down here in AZ.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby itisallpartoftheplan » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:06 am

17 Seconds wrote:it's doom boner night so i might as well point out that bote is likely nothing



Alright Joe. Keep benching him for Almora.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Duke Silver » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:43 am

soccer10k wrote:Wasn’t Soler known for hitting the ball really hard? I haven’t taken the time to compare the two as players/prospects so they might be completely different hitters, but I feel like I remember people thinking he’d figure it out in part because of his exit velo.

Bote is also more than a complete zero in the field so he’s got some value there that Soler doesn’t.


I think mainly people thought that Soler would hit for more power than he did in 2015, because he only hit 10 Ding Dong Johnsons and had a .137 ISO that year despite good exit velocities. And he has. His ISO since then is .185.

Soler's avg. exit velocity by year, from 2015 on: 91.6 mph, 89.8 mph, 89.0 mph, 89.6 mph.

So he hasn't hit it as hard since that first year of Statcast. But he has done well when he makes contact with the ball. His career ISO is .176. His career BABIP is .321. Both are above average and probably have something to do with him hitting the ball hard.

But Bote is in a different realm with his exit velocities right now than Soler was even in 2015. He's at over 96 mph. The league average has gone up and down each year since 2015, but has been between 86.7 mph and 87.8 mph each year. From 2015 through 2017, the only batters that had seasons over 93 mph were: Miguel Cabrera (twice), Nelson Cruz (twice), Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo, and Aaron Judge. Cruz and Judge were both over 94 mph once and are the only two above that mark this year, too. The guys up at the top of the league are nearly always high ISO and/or BABIP guys.

I think Soler was a blind spot for a lot of us (myself included) because he hit the ball hard and had good minor league numbers. But he's struck out in 28% of his PA in his career and is one of the worst defenders in the league -- being a below-average corner outfielder. He's shown signs of putting it together in between DL stints. And I think he'll someday be a good hitter. But he's never going to be all that valuable.

Bote is fast, has shown athleticism, and looked really solid playing in the infield, though.

Exit velocity becomes reliable much quicker than a lot of other stats, too. The stabilization point is around 50 batted balls, which Bote has passed. That's not to say that he's going to be a 96 mph exit velocity guy going forward. He almost certainly won't. But it probably hasn't been very fluky so far. As Cubswin11 said, it's hard to fake hitting the ball hard.

Hitting the ball hard is a very good thing, too. It correlates rather strongly to offensive success:

Image

That's a strong correlation, especially considering all the other things that go into offensive success, like speed and certain players being major shift candidates (usually both working against high exit velocity guys that are big and pull the ball).

I think we'll see his exit velocity numbers drop. But even if he is at, say, 92 mph going forward, that bodes well for his future, much more so than his triple slash line right now.
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Re: David Bote is a Golden God and Deserves His Own Thread

Postby Duke Silver » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:05 am

Bote's other peripherals look solid so far, too. He's shown a good eye at the plate. His Swing% looks good. His Contact% is 73%, which isn't good, but is plenty fine for a guy hitting the ball that hard. He's starting to reach enough PAs where that stuff becomes more reliable, too. He had solid walk and strikeout rates in the minors. I'd bet his BB% goes down and K% goes up from where he is now. With how hard he swings, he's going to strike out. If he can keep it below 25%, that will play.

His BABIP is really high right now, but he's also hitting a lot of grounders and not many fly balls, which will help that. He's also only had two of his seven "barreled" balls leave the park. For how hard he's hit it, you'd maybe expect a couple more of them to leave the yard. Say two of his barreled XBH turned into homers, his BABIP would be .373. Still crazy production, but he's hit it really hard. And he hasn't hit pop ups and lazy fly balls. Before tonight's game his wOBA was .414 and his xwOBA was .439. Plus, he's a right-handed hitter with speed, who is tougher to shift and can beat out infield hits.

Obviously that stuff's all going to come back to earth -- it's just a matter of how much. It won't be anywhere near this, or he'd be one of the best ball players in the world. But he's probably good at this stuff. I don't think this is anything like Junior Lake randomly BABIP'ing his way to decent numbers for a couple months. If Bote really is an exit velocity freak, he's probably going to be a BABIP freak or hit for a bunch of power, depending on what launch angles he's hitting balls at.

And he's looked good defensively at a couple of infield positions. I'm buying in. All the way in. I say he's better than at least Russell, Happ, and Almora going forward. I think he's a potential 4-win player. Somehow.
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