General Cubs Chit-Chat

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Banedon » Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:39 pm

Brian wrote:lol did the Cubs poach the Braves organist?



Gonna guess it's another Atlanta sports team.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:52 pm

that sort of thing is more welcome in modern day america but still a challenging environment. Good for him
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Derwood » Sat Oct 12, 2019 3:32 pm

QUIZ TIME!!!

Name every player who played for the Cubs in 2019

https://www.sporcle.com/games/Zipcity/e ... layer-2019
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby UMFan83 » Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:06 pm

Derwood wrote:QUIZ TIME!!!

Name every player who played for the Cubs in 2019

https://www.sporcle.com/games/Zipcity/e ... layer-2019


Stopped playing when it wouldn’t accept “piece of horsefeathers woman abuser” as an answer
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:53 pm

I only got 40. Roughly 37 more than Javy would get though.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Little Slide Rooter » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:49 pm

I was bored and ultimately wound up at Lester Strode’s Wikipedia page. This was the final sentence:

Despite being one of the few openly black bullpen coaches in the league, Strode is not believed to be a managerial candidate for the team. [6]


Can anyone else spot what’s wrong with this sentence?
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:04 pm

Little Slide Rooter wrote:I was bored and ultimately wound up at Lester Strode’s Wikipedia page. This was the final sentence:

Despite being one of the few openly black bullpen coaches in the league, Strode is not believed to be a managerial candidate for the team. [6]


Can anyone else spot what’s wrong with this sentence?

yes
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby GaryWoods » Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:32 pm

Little Slide Rooter wrote:I was bored and ultimately wound up at Lester Strode’s Wikipedia page. This was the final sentence:

Despite being one of the few openly black bullpen coaches in the league, Strode is not believed to be a managerial candidate for the team. [6]


Can anyone else spot what’s wrong with this sentence?


So I take this to mean that there are a few closeted black bullpen coaches out there?
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Cubfanintheknow » Tue Oct 15, 2019 2:50 pm

GaryWoods wrote:
Little Slide Rooter wrote:I was bored and ultimately wound up at Lester Strode’s Wikipedia page. This was the final sentence:

Despite being one of the few openly black bullpen coaches in the league, Strode is not believed to be a managerial candidate for the team. [6]


Can anyone else spot what’s wrong with this sentence?


So I take this to mean that there are a few closeted black bullpen coaches out there?
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby abmillis » Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:43 am

couple of questions...
1. Do you think the ball has really been "de-juiced" this postseason?
2. If yes, do you think that carries over into 2020?
3. How do you think that impacts the Cubs?

My opinion on 3 is that it should theoretically help the Cubs, because our power hitters (KB, Rizzo, Javy, Willson, and Schwarber) don't seem to hit a lot of cheap HRs, but our pitching was hurt a lot by the HR ball - especially Yu, who gave up the 8th most in MLB this year. And it seemed like Kyle would get bit by the HR ball badly in his blow-up games.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby The Logan » Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:17 pm

Yu has always kind of been susceptible to long balls though, granted he was in Texas, but still.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby GaryWoods » Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:06 pm

The Logan wrote:Yu has always kind of been susceptible to long balls though, granted he was in Texas, but still.


It just comes with the territory for pitchers who keep the ball in the strike zone. Fergie Jenkins was always among the league leaders in home runs allowed.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:27 pm

I do think a de-juiced ball would help the Cubs offense, which was basically the crux of my last foray into the Schwarber thread, but I don't think it specifically helps or hurts our pitching staff. Like Yu and Strop got burned by the juiced ball, but the team as a whole was middle of the pack in HR/FB.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby The Logan » Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:46 pm

Bertz wrote:I do think a de-juiced ball would help the Cubs offense, which was basically the crux of my last foray into the Schwarber thread, but I don't think it specifically helps or hurts our pitching staff. Like Yu and Strop got burned by the juiced ball, but the team as a whole was middle of the pack in HR/FB.


The thing that will forever upset me about the juiced ball era and the Cubs is that all these other teams had guys who struggled to reach 20 home runs crushing 30 dongs a year and our two biggest HR threats, Rizzo and Bryant, can barely reach 30. I know Bryant had his shoulder issues and he was plenty valuable as was, but a fully healthy Bryant should have no issues hitting 40+ in this juiced ball environment and Rizzo shouldn't be struggling to reach a number that guys like Ketel Marte and Yuli Gurriel and Kole Calhoun and Mitch Garver reached with relative ease.

Meanwhile, our biggest benefactor from the juiced ball was probably Jason Heyward who hit 21 homers and managed to boost his offense to replacement level production. Huzzah.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby squally1313 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:03 pm

Bertz wrote:I do think a de-juiced ball would help the Cubs offense, which was basically the crux of my last foray into the Schwarber thread, but I don't think it specifically helps or hurts our pitching staff. Like Yu and Strop got burned by the juiced ball, but the team as a whole was middle of the pack in HR/FB.

Do we actually know that this whole ball thing hurt the Cubs offense more than other teams? I know the general theory, that guys like Schwarber, Bryant, Baez hit longer home runs than the average player, but I'm wondering if that's a team wide thing, and if it's more selective memory (people remember the bombs and think every HR they hit is 440, while filtering out all the basket shots). It'd be nice if it was true, but seems...hopeful.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby GaryWoods » Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:10 pm

The Logan wrote:
Bertz wrote:I do think a de-juiced ball would help the Cubs offense, which was basically the crux of my last foray into the Schwarber thread, but I don't think it specifically helps or hurts our pitching staff. Like Yu and Strop got burned by the juiced ball, but the team as a whole was middle of the pack in HR/FB.


The thing that will forever upset me about the juiced ball era and the Cubs is that all these other teams had guys who struggled to reach 20 home runs crushing 30 dongs a year and our two biggest HR threats, Rizzo and Bryant, can barely reach 30. I know Bryant had his shoulder issues and he was plenty valuable as was, but a fully healthy Bryant should have no issues hitting 40+ in this juiced ball environment and Rizzo shouldn't be struggling to reach a number that guys like Ketel Marte and Yuli Gurriel and Kole Calhoun and Mitch Garver reached with relative ease.

Meanwhile, our biggest benefactor from the juiced ball was probably Jason Heyward who hit 21 homers and managed to boost his offense to replacement level production. Huzzah.


The juiced ball pushed a lot of warning-track fly balls barely over the wall, which is why Heyward hit a dozen more basket shots than usual. Rizzo and Bryant (and Schwarber, as far as that goes) don't historically record a ton of warning-track outs, so they didn't really benefit from the juiced ball.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby David » Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:16 pm

yeah, the way it seems to have played out is that basically the cubs had big power when most of the league didn't, and then the balls just helped the rest of the league have power too.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:17 pm

Seems like Castellanos definitely benefited from it once he was at Wrigley.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:03 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Bertz wrote:I do think a de-juiced ball would help the Cubs offense, which was basically the crux of my last foray into the Schwarber thread, but I don't think it specifically helps or hurts our pitching staff. Like Yu and Strop got burned by the juiced ball, but the team as a whole was middle of the pack in HR/FB.

Do we actually know that this whole ball thing hurt the Cubs offense more than other teams? I know the general theory, that guys like Schwarber, Bryant, Baez hit longer home runs than the average player, but I'm wondering if that's a team wide thing, and if it's more selective memory (people remember the bombs and think every HR they hit is 440, while filtering out all the basket shots). It'd be nice if it was true, but seems...hopeful.


I don't know where to find FB distance distribution by player, but it does show up in HR/FB rates: Here are league-wide HR/FB rates, with the percent increase over 2014 in parentheses

2014: 9.5%
2015: 11.4% (20% increase)
2016: 12.8% (35%)
2017: 13.7% (44%)
2018: 12.7% (34%)
2019: 15.3% (61%)

Now here's where a few of our guys are since 2015:

KB - 15.8, 18.8, 16.0, 11.2 (injury), 18.0
Schwarber - 24.2, 0 (injury), 24.0, 24.5, 24.1
Rizzo - 14.6, 16.2, 16.9, 13.6, 19.9
Javy - 6.3 (only 80 PAs), 12.7, 19.7, 24.3, 24.4
Willson - N/A (Minors), 23.5, 25.9, 9.3, 27.3

It really looks like it may have helped Rizzo, but those other guys just kept doing what they do. I think it makes intuitive sense too. A FB that would go 350 ft in normal conditions gains a substantial amount of HR probability with a 10% bouncier ball. But a ball that would normally go 400 ft gains very little (basically only balls hit to straightaway CF).
Last edited by Bertz on Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby squally1313 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:10 pm

Bertz wrote:It really looks like it may have helped Rizzo, but those other guys just kept doing what they do. I think it makes intuitive sense too. A FB that would go 350 ft in normal conditions gains a substantial amount of HR probability with a 10% bounce ball. But a ball that would normally go 400 ft gains very little (basically only balls hit to straightaway CF).


Yeah, but the question is whether this is a Cubs specific thing or not. It's nice to think that all of Schwarber's home runs are no doubters, but he also blew past his career high, and I remember a lot more opposite field shots from him this year (again, anecdotally). Something like average fly ball distance would be a good start, and maybe some Statcast expert can figure that out (I couldn't). The best would be if someone took one of those spray chart gifs and figured out a way to multiply all the distances by 1.1 or whatever, and then overlayed Wrigley, kinda like how we saw when Castellanos came over. But that's a whole project.

Ultimately, I'm weary on thinking this will be some Cubs specific benefit if they go back to the old ball. Ignore it, everyone uses the same thing, figure out ways to make the team better.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Tim » Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:11 pm

Rizzo might have benefited from a couple opposite field shots that would have been warning track in previous years.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:15 pm

I don’t know how it wouldn’t help a lot of our starters, Hendricks, Q, Yu and Lester all would seem to get a boost. I agree with the idea it does seem our main offensive guys didn’t get a real boost so in theory would benefit/maintain value or power in a de-juiced ball league.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby squally1313 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:35 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:I don’t know how it wouldn’t help a lot of our starters, Hendricks, Q, Yu and Lester all would seem to get a boost. I agree with the idea it does seem our main offensive guys didn’t get a real boost so in theory would benefit/maintain value or power in a de-juiced ball league.


Same argument, but in reverse. It's going to help starters on every team.

Looking at the lack of a 'boost' for our main guys and attributing it to 'well they just hit no doubters regardless' and then just expecting a regression for everyone else except them is not really an approach I want anyone making decisions to take.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:46 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I don’t know how it wouldn’t help a lot of our starters, Hendricks, Q, Yu and Lester all would seem to get a boost. I agree with the idea it does seem our main offensive guys didn’t get a real boost so in theory would benefit/maintain value or power in a de-juiced ball league.


Same argument, but in reverse. It's going to help starters on every team.

Looking at the lack of a 'boost' for our main guys and attributing it to 'well they just hit no doubters regardless' and then just expecting a regression for everyone else except them is not really an approach I want anyone making decisions to take.

Well, yeah everyone in theory gets a boost but I think some of the Cubs players haven't benefited as much (or been hurt by it more) than a lot of others and will benefit more from it going back to the old ball.

Quintna especially seems like he might get a boost, HR/FB rates of 5%, 8.9% and 9.5% in 2014-2016 then it spiked to 13.2%, 14.7% and 12.1% 2017-2019. Overall from 2014-2016 he had the 3rd best HR/FB rate in MLB, finishing 2nd, 10th and 6th in the three years individually. From 2017-2019 he fell all the way to 51st overall during that span. I think there's an argument he's been disproportionately affected by it. The last two years Hendricks has given up more HRs than any time in his career, Darvish has always given up a good chunk of HRs but he saw a spike this year too, Lester was at 16, 21, 21 14-16' and has been 26, 24, 26 the last 3 years (there's probably some age/diminished stuff at play here so maybe that's just what he is). I think it's a reasonable argument to think we may benefit more on the margins than other teams if they go back to the old ball.

I'm not saying don't change anything and bank on things improving just because the ball might switch back, but it could be a nice unexpected boost to us (again on the margins) more so than other teams.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby squally1313 » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:05 pm

I don't know the general consensus for when these new balls came into play. The HR rate has been steadily increasing over the last 10 years (with a couple blips) due to a variety of factors, but the biggest jump was from 2018 to 2019 (12.7% to 15.3%). If it's just this year, then Quintana's HR rate jumping three years ago doesn't really give me a lot of comfort.

Hendricks isn't a huge concern given his overall performance. He talked about throwing up in the zone more often this year, and based on my limited knowledge, I would think that might lead to more fly balls/home runs, with the idea being that overall you get weaker contact. His HR/FB rate going down from 14.8% to 12% to 10.4% the last three years (potentially) backs that up.

I agree that Darvish's spiked, though it went down in the second half if he puts it together. Not super concerned if he can continue the huge K/BB ratio...Verlander and Cole were both top 15 in HRs allowed this year and it didn't seem to bother them much.
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