General Cubs Chit-Chat

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Cubswin11
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:49 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:You know that’s not true and cherry picked the overall point and he was worth -.7 WAR. So yeah that’s not a 4th OF’er


Honestly, it sounds really true to me. After that sample sizes and groups shrink, but yeah if there's 90 jobs, another 60 spots to OF reserves, and he's 97th among all guys who got the most PAs then yeah...I don't know how that would read otherwise? What's the expected WAR of a 4th OF? So far -.7 isn't and a hypothetical 1 WAR from another poster wasn't enough so we're talking already an almoswt 2 WAR swing

An expected WAR of a 4th OF’er is a lot higher than negative horsefeathering point 7. 268 players logged innings in the OF last year, he ranked 252nd. 99 players logged CF innings, he was 93rd. 177th of 188 OF with at least 100 PAs, 63rd of 66 CF'ers who got min 100 PAs. 36 of 36 of CF with min 350 PAs. This isn’t that hard dude. Finding an upgrade over that isn’t hard nor is it a reason to stick with a guy because “he’s only a 4/5th OF’er.” He horsefeathering sucks.[/quote]


You yourself called his style of offense "high variance." He went from a .32something BABIP in 2018, including a very productive first half, to a .255 BABIP. Now he's stuck at .255? I already offered a link to his past xBABIP and he wasn't getting really lucky or anything when things were going better for him, so yeah almost by definition that's a bounce-back candidate

Players BABIP dependent are high variance, but Almora is more than BABIP dependent since his batted ball profile sucks so much. It’s hard to see the highs getting all that high again with his profile. It certainly isn’t worth giving him the ABs to pray it works out.

Ah yes, the infamous Jon Jay/Ian Happ/Jason Heyward starting CF hydra Almora was totally expected to back up...Very foolish of me to forget that Almora was definitely not expected to become the starting CF with a 40 YO Jon Jay, the starting RF, and a 22 YO rookie Ian Happ still taking starts at 2B (28 that year) all definitely in front of him...I see all the reason to penalize Almora for then getting alot of PAs and starts on the way to what was his most productive ML season...Bad Almora! Usurper!

Jay and Happ put up more WAR than him in 2017, Happ and Heyward put up more WAR than him in 2018 and 19. You can see how the plan was for him to be the RHH caddy to them with some expanded time but he failed miserably as he was allowed to play more and he’s sucked vs LHP for 1.5 years.

Still this master stroke of signing 2 30+ YO bad and/or injured OFers to at least 5x the 2020 salary of Almora is terrible. Alot of bad spending to get a totally certain 103 wRC+ out of a guy who hasn't posted a .300 OBP since 2017. That is not the kind of move the Cubs need to make until ST, hardly the kind of move they should be prioritizing in December

This is more an indictment on Almora being so bad than it is Pillar being good but he brings far greater certainty and won’t cost more than $4-6 million. These are the exact margin improvements we need over last year. Him and Akiyama at $9-12 million combined with a little Heyward/Happ is a positive WAR CF rotation. Almora has lowered the bar so low that Pillar is a clear upgrade. I don’t know how you can call Pillar bad then still want to play Almora or think there’s any redeeming factors to him. Pillar is only going to cost $2.5-3 million more than him.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:20 am

Cubswin11 wrote:An expected WAR of a 4th OF’er is a lot higher than negative horsefeathering point 7. 268 players logged innings in the OF last year, he ranked 252nd. 99 players logged CF innings, he was 93rd. 177th of 188 OF with at least 100 PAs, 63rd of 66 CF'ers who got min 100 PAs. 36 of 36 of CF with min 350 PAs. This isn’t that hard dude. Finding an upgrade over that isn’t hard nor is it a reason to stick with a guy because “he’s only a 4/5th OF’er.” He horsefeathering sucks.


- I'm aware of what the expected WAR is not - even mentioned the range I was given already: Definitely not -.7 and also not +1 WAR.

- 36th among the guys who go the most PAs with 30 CF starting jobs out there sounds like a backup to me.

- From 2016-2018 Almora ranked 32nd in wRC+ among guys who took at least 300 PAs (100 PAs a season). Sounds like a backup CF to me.

- From 2016-2018 Almora ranked 26th in wRC+ among guys who took 300+ PAs in CF a year

- From 2016-2019, the average wRC+ at the position was ~96 hitting as low as 94 in 2019 and 100 in 2017 (when Almora had a 104 wRC+)

- I agree this isn't hard! Cheap, young, and clearly fills a bunch of niches usually gets guys past go. He just randomly got chosen as the sand in the line for fans when it comes to being OK with spending to upgrade, even if the upgrade ideas are terrible and expensive plus older and probably more injured

Players BABIP dependent are high variance, but Almora is more than BABIP dependent since his batted ball profile sucks so much. It’s hard to see the highs getting all that high again with his profile. It certainly isn’t worth giving him the ABs to pray it works out.


He's the 4th OFer. The highs don't need to get all that high. Just to where he was can work if everyone else is healthy and hitting like they usually hit. At less than $2 million and zero trade cost, of course it's $$ worth it to try if the offseason ends up with no better options and the budget to beware

Jay and Happ put up more WAR than him in 2017, Happ and Heyward put up more WAR than him in 2018 and 19. You can see how the plan was for him to be the RHH caddy to them with some expanded time but he failed miserably as he was allowed to play more and he’s sucked vs LHP for 1.5 years.


You gave me a list including the team's starting RF, a then rookie drafted as a 2B still playing 2B, and a 40 YO clearly signed to be a reserve as guys he was totally definitely planned as a caddy for. This doesn't add up. It's as wild as signing 2 30+ FAs at more than 5x the price just to finally bounce Almora from the 4th OF spot

This is more an indictment on Almora being so bad


It's an irrationally bad plan using two roster spots just to bounce a 4th OFer and make it look like the FO and ownership give a hoot when those moves suck
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby squally1313 » Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:26 am

Why is this ‘fourth outfielder’ spot an absolutely necessary part of a 2020 roster to begin with? Don’t Happ and Heyward have plenty of experience there, with similarly mediocre defensive numbers? Didn’t Hoerner get some time out there in the minors last year, with plans for more going forward? Ignoring the other ridiculous roster arguments/hypotheticals, isn’t KB more than capable of playing a corner outfield spot? Doesn’t Tony Kemp still exist? What is this role that exists for Almora that can’t be suitably filled by multiple other solutions already on the roster, to say nothing of cheap FA/trade possibilities? I count 6 guys with outfield experience on the roster right now, 3 with at least some centerfield experience, all of which I consider more valuable than Almora.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:45 am

Cubswin11 wrote:My god. He’s a terrible horsefeathering baseball player. He has no use and there’s nothing in the numbers to suggest a bounce back or he has talent.

I'll diagree on one point. He was so horrible last year that it would be difficult to actually be worse next year. He'll probably "bounce back." The true definition of a dead cat bounce. That isn't a reason to keep him, to be clear.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:50 am

Why is this ‘fourth outfielder’ spot an absolutely necessary part of a 2020 roster to begin with? Don’t Happ and Heyward have plenty of experience there, with similarly mediocre defensive numbers?


Everyone has a 4th OFer and even a 5th OF and some even a 6th (like the Cubs, who also have Bryant and Hoerner) with more or less pretty defined roles. As for this specific club's 4th OFer - the starter group consists of two LHHs, two high K hitters, and a first time full time starter in CF. Therefore it is *completely rational* to believe the ideal next guy in line is a RHH more contact oriented with a history of LHPs, and capable of starting in CF, being cheap and young are a couple of things that boost Almora's profile and qualifications for the Cubs' backup OF job

Didn’t Hoerner get some time out there in the minors last year, with plans for more going forward?


I was secretly salivating at the bit for someone to drop the Hoerner bomb, maybe to the point that I ended up going easy. SS/2B extraordinaire Nico Hoerner - already generally the early favorite for the 2B job - has more room than ever to get CF reps with Almora on the depth chart than any other CF depth chart possibility

Ignoring the other ridiculous roster arguments/hypotheticals, isn’t KB more than capable of playing a corner outfield spot? Doesn’t Tony Kemp still exist? What is this role that exists for Almora that can’t be suitably filled by multiple other solutions already on the roster, to say nothing of cheap FA/trade possibilities? I count 6 guys with outfield experience on the roster right now, 3 with at least some centerfield experience, all of which I consider more valuable than Almora.


Bryant's played the OF, even CF, while Almora has been a Cub

Tony Kemp sucks and doesn't even fit to the tee the many times outlined niche Almora fits, not sure why he's a more appealing sword to fall on

The Cubs current OF depth chart: Heyward, Happ, Schwarber, Almora, Bryant, Kemp, Hoerner

The Cubs OF depth chat after the one suggested possibility today: Heyward, Pillar, Schwarber, Happ, Akiyama, Bryant, Kemp, Hoerner

One costs way more than the other, isn't even clearly better, takes PAs away from in-house options under 30 to give to pre-injured or pre-declining FAs over 30....
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:07 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:51 am

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:55 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:51 am

These offseasons are so stupid. I miss the old days when we would have signed Kevin Tapani by now.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Backtobanks » Thu Dec 19, 2019 2:37 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:These offseasons are so stupid. I miss the old days when we would have signed Kevin Tapani by now.


Tomorrow's headline "Cubs sign Kevin Tapani to a contract for league minimum".
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Brian » Thu Dec 19, 2019 6:00 pm

Cubs 2019 luxury tax bill officially is $7.6 million. The NBC Sports Chicago article said that was based on $220 payroll, Cot's had them at 239.9. Not sure if MLB's official math is more lenient than Cots' or NBC is just wrong or part of that may be MLB taking out Zobrist's salary for when he was gone and Cots didn't?

I can now see the hope to reset this year and not get hit as a 2 time offender, because in 2017 with a similar $224 million dollar payroll, the New York Yankees as 15 TIME offenders paid 15.7 million.

Oh the humanity!
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bull » Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:19 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:How the horsefeathers is anybody extolling the virtues of Albert Freaking Almora on here? I thought we were past that nonsense.

You have to realize that he is just entering his age 26 season. He has a proven track record and his best days are ahead of him. Arismendy Alcantara only played through his age 25 season and posted a -.5 CAREER fWAR, a number Almora is well past even given his disastrous 2019. Pitching phenom Adbert Alzolay is just entering his age 25 season, but with a -.2 fWAR last year, he'd have to meet his steamer projections this year just to own a career 0 fWAR.

Cubs legend Antonio Alfonseca had played only one season through age 25 and posted a whopping 0 fWAR. Almora has a career fWAR of 2.1 (2.4 bWAR) even after a down 2019. He projects to bounce back this year. Time will only tell if his career will endure as long as Alfonseca's 11 years of dominance (a career 2.2 fWAR through age 35 vs Albert's 2.1 through age 25) in this age of "next up" obsession with cost-controlled youngsters, but at this stage, he's clearly the better player.

I know this is a small sample size, but its a scientific one. I think we can all agree that the data shows that Almora will be at least an above-average player, and possibly 75th percentile or above. I, for one, look forward to giving him the chance to turn it around.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Dec 20, 2019 7:16 pm

I honestly can’t tell if that’s a serious post or an attempt at a joke
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Derwood » Fri Dec 20, 2019 7:19 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:I honestly can’t tell if that’s a serious post or an attempt at a joke


Consider the person posting
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Omar » Fri Dec 20, 2019 7:23 pm

I think he's onto something. Almora and Alfonseca do have the same initials.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:05 pm

Omar wrote:I think he's onto something. Almora and Alfonseca do have the same initials.

And a greater than average amount of fingers between the two of them.

Really makes you think.

Albert Almora
AntoniO AlfonsecA
AAAOAA
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Omar » Fri Dec 20, 2019 8:15 pm

His full name is Reinaldo Albert Almora Jr.

He honestly should have gone with Reinaldo.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bull » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:22 pm

Derwood wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I honestly can’t tell if that’s a serious post or an attempt at a joke


Consider the person posting

Just highlighting how ridiculous the lengths are that people need to go to to defend AA.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby mul21 » Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:31 pm

Omar wrote:His full name is Reinaldo Albert Almora Jr.

He honestly should have gone with Reinaldo.


We could call him Reinal as a hat tip to the days of Rnny Ceen and Rey rnez.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bull » Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:36 pm

mul21 wrote:
Omar wrote:His full name is Reinaldo Albert Almora Jr.

He honestly should have gone with Reinaldo.


We could call him Reinal as a hat tip to the days of Rnny Ceen and Rey rnez.

Reinal failure
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Dec 23, 2019 8:51 pm

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:35 pm

50/1 for the Pirates winning the division is ludicrously low IMO. I'm not sure the top and bottom of this division are separated by more than 10 games, and that's before a KB trade
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Mon Dec 23, 2019 10:13 pm

The Angels at 8/1 are intriguing. Losing Cole and their current means of stealing signs (ie they could very well develop a better/stealthier system) could take the Astros down a couple notches. Add in the Angels lineup and Joe's initial morale and chemistry boost, they could make a run at it. They can still make some plays/splashes in FA as well to further close the gap, maybe muddy up the division a little. The A's will always be competitive but are not locks to be better than the Angels IMO
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby NonProfitCow » Wed Dec 25, 2019 4:14 pm

Bertz wrote:50/1 for the Pirates winning the division is ludicrously low IMO. I'm not sure the top and bottom of this division are separated by more than 10 games, and that's before a KB trade

You might want to take a look at their roster. It's not 2014 anymore.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:04 pm



Highly recommend this from Sharma
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Backtobanks » Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:48 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/sahadevsharma/statuses/1211310880736055296

Highly recommend this from Sharma


Sharma took some swings? Can he play 2B or CF and will he be cheap?
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