General Cubs Chit-Chat

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby PackLandVA » Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:55 pm

Tim wrote:As currently constructed, I still think we're the best team in the division.

But man am I booooored with this offseason.



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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:28 pm

Tim wrote:As currently constructed, I still think we're the best team in the division.

But man am I booooored with this offseason.


I'm confused about "still" being the best team? I mean its certainly debatable but our 2nd best reliever right now is Rowan Wick and our position player and rotation depth is not great. Still have the top line talent and with solid seasons from the core we should be right up there, but I find it hard to call us the best team at this point.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby squally1313 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:38 pm

The Brewers bullpen after Hader is a disaster, potentially salvaged by Knebel coming back from TJS in May. The Cardinals rotation is basically just Flaherty and the shrug emoji. I know I should be worried about the Reds a little, but I really couldn't tell you much about them at this point.

This is a shell of the 2015/2016 rosters, but I think it's fair to say this team, as long as KB and Willson stay here, should be the favorites going into opening day.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Tim » Thu Jan 09, 2020 5:18 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
Tim wrote:As currently constructed, I still think we're the best team in the division.

But man am I booooored with this offseason.


I'm confused about "still" being the best team? I mean its certainly debatable but our 2nd best reliever right now is Rowan Wick and our position player and rotation depth is not great. Still have the top line talent and with solid seasons from the core we should be right up there, but I find it hard to call us the best team at this point.

From a talent perspective, I think we still have more projected production than any other team in the division. I don't really buy into the theory that the whole is less than the sum of the parts with this team. I just think we experienced negative variance last year and that if you played that season 100 times, we'd win the division most of those times. None of the teams has added much and both MIL and STL have had a major subtraction or two. For better or worse, we're basically exactly the same team minus Hamels and a few relievers.

While there's not much in the pen you'd point to and write in for 70 appearances of great pitching, there are a fair amount of quality arms that simply lack the longer track record that makes you feel warm and fuzzy. But there's a lot of flexibility and I've got a fair bit of confidence that they can put together a pretty good performance with what they have.

The bench was awful last year, but those are actually players that have a decent track record of not being complete garbage until last year. Bote and Caratini are fine to excellent depth. Descalso, Kemp and Almora may not set the world on fire, but they shouldn't sum to a -2.0 WAR, either. The last few guys on everyone's bench look much the same.

The overall offense should be somewhere between good to excellent. The big factors there are Happ & Hoerner. If Happ can provide anything like what he did in the second half, he's a well above average CF and our outfield is suddenly looking a lot better. If Nico can reproduce his quality of contact from last year and raise his walk rate to what he did in the minors, he's a very solid piece of the puzzle, too. Them producing well is huge because then you limit the number of at bats you're giving to the end of the bench. Then you've still got Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, Contreras and Baez to anchor the offense.

Darvish & Hendricks is a heck of a start to the rotation. There's interesting depth there with Mills, Rea, Cotton, Alzolay, etc. And, yeah, that's all I'm going to say here.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:04 pm

To be clear, are we saying this team has a plurality or majority of the division-winning chances?
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bertz » Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:20 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:To be clear, are we saying this team has a plurality or majority of the division-winning chances?


Not to speak for Tim but I'd say plurality. Fangraphs has the Cubs at 40 projected WAR (an ~88 win team), the Brewers at 36, Cards at 35, Reds at 32 (without Akiyama yet, so let's say 34), and Pirates at 30. I'd guess in division champ odds that equates to something along the lines of 30/22/20/18/10.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:39 pm

A majority would be tough even if the Cubs weren't a sad sack of LT avoiding horsefeathers.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby UMFan83 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:57 pm

Nothing really new in this article but if you like reading articles that have a TL;DR of "WTF Cubs?" here is one from The Ringer:

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2020/1/10 ... cold-stove
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby CubinNY » Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:58 pm

UMFan83 wrote:Nothing really new in this article but if you like reading articles that have a TL;DR of "WTF Cubs?" here is one from The Ringer:

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2020/1/10 ... cold-stove

"Suffice it to say, things have taken a hard left turn off that course."

I would say a hard right turn.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bull » Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:39 am

Tim wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:
Tim wrote:As currently constructed, I still think we're the best team in the division.

But man am I booooored with this offseason.


I'm confused about "still" being the best team? I mean its certainly debatable but our 2nd best reliever right now is Rowan Wick and our position player and rotation depth is not great. Still have the top line talent and with solid seasons from the core we should be right up there, but I find it hard to call us the best team at this point.

From a talent perspective, I think we still have more projected production than any other team in the division. I don't really buy into the theory that the whole is less than the sum of the parts with this team. I just think we experienced negative variance last year and that if you played that season 100 times, we'd win the division most of those times. None of the teams has added much and both MIL and STL have had a major subtraction or two. For better or worse, we're basically exactly the same team minus Hamels and a few relievers.

While there's not much in the pen you'd point to and write in for 70 appearances of great pitching, there are a fair amount of quality arms that simply lack the longer track record that makes you feel warm and fuzzy. But there's a lot of flexibility and I've got a fair bit of confidence that they can put together a pretty good performance with what they have.

The bench was awful last year, but those are actually players that have a decent track record of not being complete garbage until last year. Bote and Caratini are fine to excellent depth. Descalso, Kemp and Almora may not set the world on fire, but they shouldn't sum to a -2.0 WAR, either. The last few guys on everyone's bench look much the same.

The overall offense should be somewhere between good to excellent. The big factors there are Happ & Hoerner. If Happ can provide anything like what he did in the second half, he's a well above average CF and our outfield is suddenly looking a lot better. If Nico can reproduce his quality of contact from last year and raise his walk rate to what he did in the minors, he's a very solid piece of the puzzle, too. Them producing well is huge because then you limit the number of at bats you're giving to the end of the bench. Then you've still got Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, Contreras and Baez to anchor the offense.

Darvish & Hendricks is a heck of a start to the rotation. There's interesting depth there with Mills, Rea, Cotton, Alzolay, etc. And, yeah, that's all I'm going to say here.


Plus some of those core position players are theoretically moving into the peak of their prime.

It’s hard to imagine improvement with some, but Contreras, Schwarber, Bryant and Baez are theoretically yet to/about to peak while Happ, Almora, Bote could/should also be improving.

Rizzo and Heyward will turn 31 this year however and are in danger of precipitous decline.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:04 am

Bull wrote:
Tim wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:
I'm confused about "still" being the best team? I mean its certainly debatable but our 2nd best reliever right now is Rowan Wick and our position player and rotation depth is not great. Still have the top line talent and with solid seasons from the core we should be right up there, but I find it hard to call us the best team at this point.

From a talent perspective, I think we still have more projected production than any other team in the division. I don't really buy into the theory that the whole is less than the sum of the parts with this team. I just think we experienced negative variance last year and that if you played that season 100 times, we'd win the division most of those times. None of the teams has added much and both MIL and STL have had a major subtraction or two. For better or worse, we're basically exactly the same team minus Hamels and a few relievers.

While there's not much in the pen you'd point to and write in for 70 appearances of great pitching, there are a fair amount of quality arms that simply lack the longer track record that makes you feel warm and fuzzy. But there's a lot of flexibility and I've got a fair bit of confidence that they can put together a pretty good performance with what they have.

The bench was awful last year, but those are actually players that have a decent track record of not being complete garbage until last year. Bote and Caratini are fine to excellent depth. Descalso, Kemp and Almora may not set the world on fire, but they shouldn't sum to a -2.0 WAR, either. The last few guys on everyone's bench look much the same.

The overall offense should be somewhere between good to excellent. The big factors there are Happ & Hoerner. If Happ can provide anything like what he did in the second half, he's a well above average CF and our outfield is suddenly looking a lot better. If Nico can reproduce his quality of contact from last year and raise his walk rate to what he did in the minors, he's a very solid piece of the puzzle, too. Them producing well is huge because then you limit the number of at bats you're giving to the end of the bench. Then you've still got Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, Contreras and Baez to anchor the offense.

Darvish & Hendricks is a heck of a start to the rotation. There's interesting depth there with Mills, Rea, Cotton, Alzolay, etc. And, yeah, that's all I'm going to say here.


Plus some of those core position players are theoretically moving into the peak of their prime.

It’s hard to imagine improvement with some, but Contreras, Schwarber, Bryant and Baez are theoretically yet to/about to peak while Happ, Almora, Bote could/should also be improving.

Rizzo and Heyward will turn 31 this year however and are in danger of precipitous decline.


Players peak earlier than you're thinking. All those guys are pure decline age. Everyone declines forever. There are no peaks.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby weis21 » Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:36 am

Kyle thinks everyone peaks at age 23 because that’s how old he was the last time he got laid
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Bull » Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:45 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Bull wrote:
Tim wrote:From a talent perspective, I think we still have more projected production than any other team in the division. I don't really buy into the theory that the whole is less than the sum of the parts with this team. I just think we experienced negative variance last year and that if you played that season 100 times, we'd win the division most of those times. None of the teams has added much and both MIL and STL have had a major subtraction or two. For better or worse, we're basically exactly the same team minus Hamels and a few relievers.

While there's not much in the pen you'd point to and write in for 70 appearances of great pitching, there are a fair amount of quality arms that simply lack the longer track record that makes you feel warm and fuzzy. But there's a lot of flexibility and I've got a fair bit of confidence that they can put together a pretty good performance with what they have.

The bench was awful last year, but those are actually players that have a decent track record of not being complete garbage until last year. Bote and Caratini are fine to excellent depth. Descalso, Kemp and Almora may not set the world on fire, but they shouldn't sum to a -2.0 WAR, either. The last few guys on everyone's bench look much the same.

The overall offense should be somewhere between good to excellent. The big factors there are Happ & Hoerner. If Happ can provide anything like what he did in the second half, he's a well above average CF and our outfield is suddenly looking a lot better. If Nico can reproduce his quality of contact from last year and raise his walk rate to what he did in the minors, he's a very solid piece of the puzzle, too. Them producing well is huge because then you limit the number of at bats you're giving to the end of the bench. Then you've still got Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, Contreras and Baez to anchor the offense.

Darvish & Hendricks is a heck of a start to the rotation. There's interesting depth there with Mills, Rea, Cotton, Alzolay, etc. And, yeah, that's all I'm going to say here.


Plus some of those core position players are theoretically moving into the peak of their prime.

It’s hard to imagine improvement with some, but Contreras, Schwarber, Bryant and Baez are theoretically yet to/about to peak while Happ, Almora, Bote could/should also be improving.

Rizzo and Heyward will turn 31 this year however and are in danger of precipitous decline.


Players peak earlier than you're thinking. All those guys are pure decline age. Everyone declines forever. There are no peaks.

I thought we had backed the peak age back from 31 years ago to 28 today.

And just because you peaked in high school doesn’t mean we all did.

Also, if peak is earlier than 28, why are we upset they want to trade Bryant? I mean, I am, but maybe I need to take a step back.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:01 pm

Bull wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Bull wrote:
Plus some of those core position players are theoretically moving into the peak of their prime.

It’s hard to imagine improvement with some, but Contreras, Schwarber, Bryant and Baez are theoretically yet to/about to peak while Happ, Almora, Bote could/should also be improving.

Rizzo and Heyward will turn 31 this year however and are in danger of precipitous decline.


Players peak earlier than you're thinking. All those guys are pure decline age. Everyone declines forever. There are no peaks.

I thought we had backed the peak age back from 31 years ago to 28 today.

And just because you peaked in high school doesn’t mean we all did.

Also, if peak is earlier than 28, why are we upset they want to trade Bryant? I mean, I am, but maybe I need to take a step back.


Historically, people thought baseball peaks were 28-32 but they were more like 25-29. They've been trending younger in the last 15 years or so, to the point where they might be as early as 23-25 now. Probably because in the past, players learned on the job up through the majors and skill progression cancelled out aging, but now players tend to get intense training from an early age and to the majors with less to gain from experience. So all that's left is good old physical decline, which starts in the very early 20s.

People being mad about trading Bryant? It seems pretty emotion-based to me.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:21 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:People being mad about trading Bryant? It seems pretty emotion-based to me.

Without speaking for others, my emotions are tied to my preferred baseball team being cheap af and being uninterested in improving upon a currently well above average baseball team. By the way, my ties to said preferred baseball team are purely emotional and bereft of logic, reason, or material gain.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:05 pm



I don't know how he returns to Wrigley Field and a future Cubs Convention without that forced apology the Ricketts are demanding. He also needs to open up about his PED usage, but I guess he cares about his slim HoF chances. If he admits to that (I believe he will someday) then he probably has no chance at making it down the road.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Brian » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:23 pm



How has it only been 3 years, feels like 30.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:29 pm

Brian wrote:

How has it only been 3 years, feels like 30.

Da orange man has aged us all.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:03 pm

It's so insanely depressing that the Cubs inexplicably went back to see Trump, too. WHY DO THEY SUCK SO MUCH.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby David » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:10 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:To be clear, are we saying this team has a plurality or majority of the division-winning chances?

i'm not sure even the 2016 team had a majority going into the season. who the hell would be saying that?
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:20 pm

Brian wrote:

How has it only been 3 years, feels like 30.


Man, just looking at that picture makes me sad now...

I miss Obama and Dexter so damn much.
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby SouthSideRyan » Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:21 pm

David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:To be clear, are we saying this team has a plurality or majority of the division-winning chances?

i'm not sure even the 2016 team had a majority going into the season. who the hell would be saying that?


I’d bet the 2017 team did
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby SouthSideRyan » Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:22 pm

Regular Show wrote:

I don't know how he returns to Wrigley Field and a future Cubs Convention without that forced apology the Ricketts are demanding. He also needs to open up about his PED usage, but I guess he cares about his slim HoF chances. If he admits to that (I believe he will someday) then he probably has no chance at making it down the road.


horsefeathers Tom Ricketts
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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Brian » Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:35 pm

I was going to make a prediction that Lester was going to come into camp looking slimmed down, but I never did. Looks like my prediction would have been right.

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Re: General Cubs Chit-Chat

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:31 am

Ankle still not 100%. Cool, cool. Probably gonna hear they finally got around to doing to proper scan in spring and found out he needs a procedure and their rest and run rehab didn’t work.



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