Sammy Sofa wrote: Cubswin11 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Sure, because to this point he's had an OK year at best, and, as pointed out, he's been a disappointment this season relative to expectations. Yeah, it's great his ERA has been trending the right direction for a while now, but it's not like anyone has to dig deep to see where he's struggled or been noticeably worse this year. Like, I'm much more encouraged if he stops walking so many guys (and he did that last night, huzzah!) and gets that walk rate and WHIP down than really ever worrying about his ERA.
He's walked 3 or less batters every game in his last 9 games and 12 of his last 14 (2 or less in 9 of those). He's largely been the same pitcher he's always been going back to late April.
"Largely" is pretty loaded, and arguably pretty inaccurate, in this case. No, he hasn't been terrible, but he's been significantly worse than expected/hoped. It's not like the guy's overall value is taking a pretty big hit just for kicks.
Like, I get that guys like Quintana and Rizzo aren't THAT far off from the mark for the most part, but there seems to be a disconnect between "they're basically the same guys" and then looking at their numbers and seeing they're going to be settling for a relatively pretty subpar total value even if/when they truly are back to themselves in the second half. 2.5+ fWAR Rizzo is not the same guy this year. 2+ fWAR Quintana is not the same guy this year.
Yeah but I mean they are largely doing a lot of the same things they've always done their whole careers (Rizzo's batted ball profile and what not, Q's velo and pitching his last ~14 starts) the results have been a bit wonky and they are just a tick off it seems (too many grounders by Rizzo, Q’s command at times).
Also with Q (yes you can do this with most pitchers) he seems to have been a little unlucky with some runs and could probably have ~8ish runs saved by just having not ridiculously horrible luck. He pitched in that horsefeathers weather game vs the Braves where nobody could pitch and we scored 10 in the 8th or whatever, he was pitching in Coors when Heyward went blind and cost him a few runs, Cishek gave up a 3 run dong vs some horsefeathers RHH when coming in for him (yes he let this guys on base but still), and I think there was one really other weird scenario I can't think of. You can't dismiss all that to just bad luck, he should be pitching better but those are some really bad luck scenarios and all pitchers have bad luck but an Gold Glove OF going blind and pitching in winter weather is an extreme.