On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby The Logan » Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:15 pm

Just got an ESPN notification saying that Rizzo's agent said the Cubs are not working on an extension with him and/or don't plan to. I don't know which. So there's that.

The smart money says you probably shouldn't extend Rizzo at his age when he's a FA, but I love Rizzo and wish he would be a Cub for life.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby KingCubsFan » Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:37 pm

The Logan wrote:Just got an ESPN notification saying that Rizzo's agent said the Cubs are not working on an extension with him and/or don't plan to. I don't know which. So there's that.

The smart money says you probably shouldn't extend Rizzo at his age when he's a FA, but I love Rizzo and wish he would be a Cub for life.

Twitter is blowing up over this. Rizzo is the best possible brand ambassador for the Cubs, and I hope he is a Cub for life, but I’m not surprised that Theo would tell his agent to hold up on something two years from now. I imagine Theo is pretty busy at the moment.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby Regular Show » Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:39 pm

The Logan wrote:Just got an ESPN notification saying that Rizzo's agent said the Cubs are not working on an extension with him and/or don't plan to. I don't know which. So there's that.

The smart money says you probably shouldn't extend Rizzo at his age when he's a FA, but I love Rizzo and wish he would be a Cub for life.


Rizzo's agent was instructed to reach out to the Cubs to discuss a possible extension, but was rebuffed. Obviously, now is not the time to be extending Rizzo (maybe next offseason?) and probably better to wait.

I feel the same way regarding Rizzo -- probably isn't a smart move considering his age and the position he plays. Still, I'd be okay with tacking on 2 more years taking it through 2023... I don't think that's what Rizzo and his agent have in mind however. He wants to be a Cub for life and I seriously doubt that happening unless he plans on retiring in his early-30's.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:44 pm

Yeah with 2 years left there isn’t crazy urgency, especially during the winter meetings and coming weeks. I’d be fine adding 3 years past the option year next year at $14-17 aav. Then a team option or two with a small buyout. He should be a Cub for life.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:47 pm

If you want leverage to buy out his free agency years on the cheap, the best way is to offer a couple more bucks now, when he's grossly underpaid.
He's got less and less incentive to do such a thing if you make him play out this contract.

Unfortunately, the Cubs can't "afford" to give him more money now.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 5:55 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:If you want leverage to buy out his free agency years on the cheap, the best way is to offer a couple more bucks now, when he's grossly underpaid.
He's got less and less incentive to do such a thing if you make him play out this contract.

Unfortunately, the Cubs can't "afford" to give him more money now.

He’s at $16.5 on the option years, is that really “grossly underpaid” from an AAV perspective for a 1B on the other side of 30? He more recently has a season at sub 3 WAR than he does a season at 5+. I think that $16.5 range for AAV on an extension+guaranteeing option year is pretty fair/realistic.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby Splendid Splinter » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:03 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:If you want leverage to buy out his free agency years on the cheap, the best way is to offer a couple more bucks now, when he's grossly underpaid.
He's got less and less incentive to do such a thing if you make him play out this contract.

Unfortunately, the Cubs can't "afford" to give him more money now.

He’s at $16.5 on the option years, is that really “grossly underpaid” from an AAV perspective for a 1B on the other side of 30?


What kind of deal would you think Rizzo would get this offseason if Cubs declined the option and made him a FA?

Mind you... Jose Abreu got 3 yr 50 mil this offseason which is basically what Rizzo options are $$/yr wise.
Last edited by Splendid Splinter on Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby David » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:06 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:If you want leverage to buy out his free agency years on the cheap, the best way is to offer a couple more bucks now, when he's grossly underpaid.
He's got less and less incentive to do such a thing if you make him play out this contract.

Unfortunately, the Cubs can't "afford" to give him more money now.

He’s at $16.5 on the option years, is that really “grossly underpaid” from an AAV perspective for a 1B on the other side of 30? He more recently has a season at sub 3 WAR than he does a season at 5+. I think that $16.5 range for AAV on an extension+guaranteeing option year is pretty fair/realistic.


yeah i'd say he's been pretty damn grossly underpaid (as much as you can say that given the fact that it's already generational wealth and blah blah)

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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:07 pm

I'd imagine that Rizzo is looking at Paul Goldschmidt and understandably expecting a 9 figure deal. I bet the Cubs are looking at other 1B who have signed extensions two years prior to FA like Ryan Howard and Miggy Cabrera and understandably saying "nah."

If Rizzo stays a Cub long term I expect it to be an Aramis Ramirez situation where he hits FA, makes sure no one is going to blow him away with a contract, and then resigns with the Cubs for a slightly team-friendly rate.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:08 pm

Don't pay first basemen that are over 30. Just don't do it.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:10 pm

David wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:If you want leverage to buy out his free agency years on the cheap, the best way is to offer a couple more bucks now, when he's grossly underpaid.
He's got less and less incentive to do such a thing if you make him play out this contract.

Unfortunately, the Cubs can't "afford" to give him more money now.

He’s at $16.5 on the option years, is that really “grossly underpaid” from an AAV perspective for a 1B on the other side of 30? He more recently has a season at sub 3 WAR than he does a season at 5+. I think that $16.5 range for AAV on an extension+guaranteeing option year is pretty fair/realistic.


yeah i'd say he's been pretty damn grossly underpaid (as much as you can say that given the fact that it's already generational wealth and blah blah)

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He’s been grossly underpaid no doubt, but the current $16.5 and next years option seem about right for where he’s at now. Idk he’s not a $22-25+ aav guy on the next deal.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby David » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:10 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Don't pay first basemen that are over 30. Just don't do it.


any move to keep him around past his current contract is obv more emotionally driven than anything

and i'm still kinda ok with that, especially given how much surplus value he has given them and how much he has meant to the organization

all that said, it's not really worth talking about right now, especially given everything else going on and ownership pretending times are tough.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby David » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:12 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:He’s been grossly underpaid no doubt, but the current $16.5 and next years option seem about right for where he’s at now. Idk he’s not a $22-25+ aav guy on the next deal.


he's still probably significantly underpaid at 16.5 for the next two years. he was worth almost double that 2 of the last 3 years.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:12 pm

Splendid Splinter wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:If you want leverage to buy out his free agency years on the cheap, the best way is to offer a couple more bucks now, when he's grossly underpaid.
He's got less and less incentive to do such a thing if you make him play out this contract.

Unfortunately, the Cubs can't "afford" to give him more money now.

He’s at $16.5 on the option years, is that really “grossly underpaid” from an AAV perspective for a 1B on the other side of 30?


What kind of deal would you think Rizzo would get this offseason if Cubs declined the option and made him a FA?

If he’s a FA this offseason probably like 4-5 years and between $70-85 million guaranteed.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby squally1313 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:31 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Don't pay first basemen that are over 30. Just don't do it.


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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:20 pm

Extending Rizzo would be emotionally satisfying, but he is totally a primo candidate of coming down with a severe case of Inner Fat Dude Just Waiting to Hulk out, But Like a Fat Hulk-itis.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby squally1313 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:23 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Extending Rizzo would be emotionally satisfying, but he is totally a primo candidate of coming down with a severe case of Inner Fat Dude Just Waiting to Hulk out, But Like a Fat Hulk-itis.

Yeah, asking me right now, Rizzo is the one person where I'm willing to throw reason and common sense out the window. Dude was here for a lot of bad baseball and saw it all the way through. However, I probably would have said the same about Lester about 18 months ago, and at this point I'd be fine dumping his salary for nothing.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:26 pm

Though just imagine how even more tiny the face of Fat Rizzo would be.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby KingCubsFan » Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:33 pm

David wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:He’s been grossly underpaid no doubt, but the current $16.5 and next years option seem about right for where he’s at now. Idk he’s not a $22-25+ aav guy on the next deal.


he's still probably significantly underpaid at 16.5 for the next two years. he was worth almost double that 2 of the last 3 years.

Rizzo never has, and never will, be worth 33 million a year in the real world. 16.5m is good value for a 4 WAR 1B, but not a severe underpayment.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby squally1313 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:47 pm

KingCubsFan wrote:
David wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:He’s been grossly underpaid no doubt, but the current $16.5 and next years option seem about right for where he’s at now. Idk he’s not a $22-25+ aav guy on the next deal.


he's still probably significantly underpaid at 16.5 for the next two years. he was worth almost double that 2 of the last 3 years.

Rizzo never has, and never will, be worth 33 million a year in the real world. 16.5m is good value for a 4 WAR 1B, but not a severe underpayment.

Abreu just got $16.67m a year after two years putting up 3.1 WAR combined.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby ConstableRabbit » Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:01 pm

squally1313 wrote:
KingCubsFan wrote:
David wrote:
he's still probably significantly underpaid at 16.5 for the next two years. he was worth almost double that 2 of the last 3 years.

Rizzo never has, and never will, be worth 33 million a year in the real world. 16.5m is good value for a 4 WAR 1B, but not a severe underpayment.

Abreu just got $16.67m a year after two years putting up 3.1 WAR combined.

Did you think that was a good deal?

Look, I love Rizzo. We all love Rizzo. When he signed his 7/$41m deal, he had about a full season of MLB PAs under his belt, good for about 1.0 fWAR. The Cubs hoped he'd become a star and they'd have more financial flexibility, and Rizzo got paid a lot more than he was making. There should 100% not be a conversation about an extension until this deal is close to being done.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby KingCubsFan » Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:04 pm

squally1313 wrote:
KingCubsFan wrote:
David wrote:
he's still probably significantly underpaid at 16.5 for the next two years. he was worth almost double that 2 of the last 3 years.

Rizzo never has, and never will, be worth 33 million a year in the real world. 16.5m is good value for a 4 WAR 1B, but not a severe underpayment.

Abreu just got $16.67m a year after two years putting up 3.1 WAR combined.

If you think Anthony Rizzo would get more on the open market per year than Bryce Harper, I’m not sure what to tell you.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:09 pm

KingCubsFan wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
KingCubsFan wrote:Rizzo never has, and never will, be worth 33 million a year in the real world. 16.5m is good value for a 4 WAR 1B, but not a severe underpayment.

Abreu just got $16.67m a year after two years putting up 3.1 WAR combined.

If you think Anthony Rizzo would get more on the open market per year than Bryce Harper, I’m not sure what to tell you.

Why are you talking about $33 million?
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby David » Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:17 pm

yeah...all i noted was that his performance was worth what it was worth based on the math. and that includes him being dinged for his position (which he plays really damn well, FWIW).

never said he'd actually get that on the open market. entirely different story.
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Re: On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

Postby KingCubsFan » Wed Dec 11, 2019 8:18 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
KingCubsFan wrote:
squally1313 wrote:Abreu just got $16.67m a year after two years putting up 3.1 WAR combined.

If you think Anthony Rizzo would get more on the open market per year than Bryce Harper, I’m not sure what to tell you.

Why are you talking about $33 million?

Responding to the original post that, for 2 of the past 3 years, Rizzo was "worth" nearly twice the $16.5m he is scheduled to be paid. For some reason the original post isn't included in your quote.
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