Willson's Framing

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Tim
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Willson's Framing

Postby Tim » Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:56 pm

Is it really that bad?

I know that BP has him rated awfully. But by Statcorner he's...good in 2019. The methods for evaluation vary wildly, but Statcorner's is actually fairly straightforward. Here are the factors:

- number of pitches called balls that statcast says are strikes (strikes gained)
- number of pitches called strikes that statcast says are balls (strikes lost)

Compare those to the expected performance with an average catcher and figure out the net strikes gained or lost. It is a fairly objective method for rating framing.

Willson was pretty good in 2016; he was absolutely awful in 2017; he was improved but still bad in 2018. Last year he was well above average, though still well short of elite.

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I bring this up because while Willson has been up and down by this measure. JT Realmuto was consistently dreadful - until last year. And the Cubs just hired the guy given credit for transforming JTR from probably the worst (consistently) performing catcher into one well above average.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/ ... coach.html

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Perhaps the Cubs would have done this anyway. But it could also signal that they're not getting the offers they're hoping for in return for Contreras and want to give him the best chance to succeed.
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Re: Wllson's Framing

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:08 pm

It is bad.

BP, Fangraphs, Statcorner

2017: -3, -9, +4
2018: -18, -18, -13
2019: -9, -9, +4

I would wager the depth of his 2018 struggles has more to do with being overused, but he is undoubtedly well below average.
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Re: Wllson's Framing

Postby Backtobanks » Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:13 pm

Tim wrote:Is it really that bad?

I know that BP has him rated awfully. But by Statcorner he's...good in 2019. The methods for evaluation vary wildly, but Statcorner's is actually fairly straightforward. Here are the factors:

- number of pitches called balls that statcast says are strikes (strikes gained)
- number of pitches called strikes that statcast says are balls (strikes lost)



Using this criteria, we should compare him to most umpires.
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Re: Wllson's Framing

Postby Tim » Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:21 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:It is bad.

BP, Fangraphs, Statcorner

2017: -3, -9, +4
2018: -18, -18, -13
2019: -9, -9, +4

I would wager the depth of his 2018 struggles has more to do with being overused, but he is undoubtedly well below average.

How do Fangraphs and BP calculate theirs? A quick glance at the BP framing page didn't offer much insight.
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Re: Wllson's Framing

Postby Bertz » Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:35 pm

I think he's clearly bad, but I think how well that predicts how bad he'll be going forward is the question. We've seen guys like JT Realmuto, Alex Avila, and Jason Castro go from very bad to very good in a single offseason over the past several years. We've also seen the opposite happen with guys like Lucroy, though age is often a viable explanation for many of those.

Personally, my guess is that not enough credit is attributed to the pitchers. Like with Willson for instance, I'd love to see his numbers from the last two years pitching to Yu or Chatwood vs everybody else.
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Re: Wllson's Framing

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:42 pm

Tim wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:It is bad.

BP, Fangraphs, Statcorner

2017: -3, -9, +4
2018: -18, -18, -13
2019: -9, -9, +4

I would wager the depth of his 2018 struggles has more to do with being overused, but he is undoubtedly well below average.

How do Fangraphs and BP calculate theirs? A quick glance at the BP framing page didn't offer much insight.


https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news ... r-framing/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-pitch-framing/
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Re: Wllson's Framing

Postby Tim » Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:14 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Tim wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:It is bad.

BP, Fangraphs, Statcorner

2017: -3, -9, +4
2018: -18, -18, -13
2019: -9, -9, +4

I would wager the depth of his 2018 struggles has more to do with being overused, but he is undoubtedly well below average.

How do Fangraphs and BP calculate theirs? A quick glance at the BP framing page didn't offer much insight.


https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news ... r-framing/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-pitch-framing/

Thanks - that helped a lot.

There's a lot more sophistication in the fangraphs and bp approaches, but that doesn't necessarily make them more accurate. WOWY, in particular, is subject to small sample impacts no matter how much it is downplayed in the bp article. They're also making big assumptions of linearity in their modeling for things that do not intuitively (to me, at least) seem linear.

I'm still not sure how good the systems are since there's so much inconsistency in year to year results for individual catchers.
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Re: Wllson's Framing

Postby Tim » Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:15 pm

Still, it's interesting that they brought in the guy that helped JTR, though. Not sure if that says anything about their intentions with Willson or not.
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Re: Wllson's Framing

Postby Omar » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:28 pm

maybe Cubs can hire Miguel Montero as framing coach
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Re: Wllson's Framing

Postby sneakypower » Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:44 pm

vision issues?

bc there's no i in Wllson
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Re: Wllson's Framing

Postby mul21 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:27 pm

sneakypower wrote:vision issues?

bc there's no i in Wllson


Oh come on, how do you screw that up? There's only one I in Willson.
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