Remaining schedule
Remaining schedule
I was looking at the schedule the other day and it got me to look at the other teams in the division.
Cubs: 2 vs. Cin, 3 @ Mil, 2 vs. Cle, 3 vs. Min, 4 @ Pit, 3 @ CWS
Cards: 2 vs. Det, 3 vs. Cin, 5 @ Mil, 4 @ Pit, 1 vs. Pit, 3 @ KC, 4 vs. Mil, 1 @ Mil, 2 @ Det
Brewers: 1 @ Det, 3 vs. ChC, 5 vs. StL, 3 vs. KC, 3 @ Cin, 4 @ StL, 1 vs StL
Reds: 2 @ ChC, 3 @ StL 4 vs. Pit, 3 vs. CWS, 3 vs. Mil, 3 @ Min
If we're just looking at making the playoffs, 30 wins could be enough. Right now the Marlins and Giants the 7 and 8 seeds at .500. So let's say 31. Division is probably more, so let's say 33 or 34 to be safe, though this could be 31 or 32.
I'm not worried about the Reds at all for either one. They're already at 24 losses so to get to 30 wins, they'd have to go 126. Now, unless they only lose to StL and Mil but roll the other 12 games (unlikely since 8 are against us, ChW and Min), them getting to 30 wins would also likely give StL and Mil a loss or two.
Mil and StL I'll group together for obvious reasons. Playoffswise, probably the best thing for the Cubs is that these two teams play 10 times. Because for the Cubs to miss the playoffs, both of these teams would have to pass the Cubs (assuming the Reds don't go nuts), and the Cubs could still finish 3rd and still get in. if StL goes 64 in those games, Milwaukee would have to go 82 just to get to 30. We'll obviously have a better idea of what to root for after this weekend when those two teams play. Considering the Cubs have had 75 chances to put the Brewers away since Sept 2018 and haven't done it, the irrational part of me is assuming Mil will win 2 of 3. But if, IF, the Cubs win the series, we'd probably want Milwaukee to at least win 5 games to maximize our division odds. Cubs winning 2 and Mil going 55 vs. StL puts them at 29 losses. StL does have a weaker schedule but all those DHs are going to matter. Next week they play 8 games in 5 days.
If we're just looking at what the Cubs need to do, it's simple, pound the Pirates and don't get swept in the other series. If you give the Cubs 1 in each remaining series including Cincy (so win 2 of 3 in this one), and 3 of 4 vs. Pittsburgh, that's 33 wins, which is a playoff lock and probably gets the division. At the very least, it's second place. If they can't do that, well, they don't deserve a top3 seed. For the playoffs it's even easier  1 win per series gets you to 31.
As far as the actual playoffs go, there's a decent chance we end up playing the Cards or Brewers in the first round. The Cubs are more likely to be the 3 seed if they win the division since Atlanta has a softer schedule. That means they'd end up playing the worst #2 seed. The Pads are pretty much locked into the 4 seed so we'd draw either the East or Central #2. Conversely, if the Cards win the division, they'd probably also be the 3 seed so the Cubs, if 2nd, would either be the 5 or 6 seed. Would be nice to go on a bit of a run and get that 2 seed though.
Cubs: 2 vs. Cin, 3 @ Mil, 2 vs. Cle, 3 vs. Min, 4 @ Pit, 3 @ CWS
Cards: 2 vs. Det, 3 vs. Cin, 5 @ Mil, 4 @ Pit, 1 vs. Pit, 3 @ KC, 4 vs. Mil, 1 @ Mil, 2 @ Det
Brewers: 1 @ Det, 3 vs. ChC, 5 vs. StL, 3 vs. KC, 3 @ Cin, 4 @ StL, 1 vs StL
Reds: 2 @ ChC, 3 @ StL 4 vs. Pit, 3 vs. CWS, 3 vs. Mil, 3 @ Min
If we're just looking at making the playoffs, 30 wins could be enough. Right now the Marlins and Giants the 7 and 8 seeds at .500. So let's say 31. Division is probably more, so let's say 33 or 34 to be safe, though this could be 31 or 32.
I'm not worried about the Reds at all for either one. They're already at 24 losses so to get to 30 wins, they'd have to go 126. Now, unless they only lose to StL and Mil but roll the other 12 games (unlikely since 8 are against us, ChW and Min), them getting to 30 wins would also likely give StL and Mil a loss or two.
Mil and StL I'll group together for obvious reasons. Playoffswise, probably the best thing for the Cubs is that these two teams play 10 times. Because for the Cubs to miss the playoffs, both of these teams would have to pass the Cubs (assuming the Reds don't go nuts), and the Cubs could still finish 3rd and still get in. if StL goes 64 in those games, Milwaukee would have to go 82 just to get to 30. We'll obviously have a better idea of what to root for after this weekend when those two teams play. Considering the Cubs have had 75 chances to put the Brewers away since Sept 2018 and haven't done it, the irrational part of me is assuming Mil will win 2 of 3. But if, IF, the Cubs win the series, we'd probably want Milwaukee to at least win 5 games to maximize our division odds. Cubs winning 2 and Mil going 55 vs. StL puts them at 29 losses. StL does have a weaker schedule but all those DHs are going to matter. Next week they play 8 games in 5 days.
If we're just looking at what the Cubs need to do, it's simple, pound the Pirates and don't get swept in the other series. If you give the Cubs 1 in each remaining series including Cincy (so win 2 of 3 in this one), and 3 of 4 vs. Pittsburgh, that's 33 wins, which is a playoff lock and probably gets the division. At the very least, it's second place. If they can't do that, well, they don't deserve a top3 seed. For the playoffs it's even easier  1 win per series gets you to 31.
As far as the actual playoffs go, there's a decent chance we end up playing the Cards or Brewers in the first round. The Cubs are more likely to be the 3 seed if they win the division since Atlanta has a softer schedule. That means they'd end up playing the worst #2 seed. The Pads are pretty much locked into the 4 seed so we'd draw either the East or Central #2. Conversely, if the Cards win the division, they'd probably also be the 3 seed so the Cubs, if 2nd, would either be the 5 or 6 seed. Would be nice to go on a bit of a run and get that 2 seed though.
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Re: Remaining schedule
I’m not even sure we need 30 wins. Right now the Brewers are 1822 and the Reds are 1824. If the Cubs only win 28 games (meaning they go 314 the rest of the way) the Brewers would need to go 119 the rest of the way to overtake the Cubs, and the Reds 117.
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Re: Remaining schedule
By the of next Wednesday things will be pretty clear.
Cubs and Reds play twice
Cubs and Brewers play 3.
Cards and Reds have 3.
Cards and Brewers have 5.
Then on top of those games vs each other the Reds and Cardinals both have DH (Cin)Pitt and (Pitt)DET. There will be tons of games in the next 8 days.
Cubs and Reds play twice
Cubs and Brewers play 3.
Cards and Reds have 3.
Cards and Brewers have 5.
Then on top of those games vs each other the Reds and Cardinals both have DH (Cin)Pitt and (Pitt)DET. There will be tons of games in the next 8 days.
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Re: Remaining schedule
I'm looking forward to the Cubs' division clinching celebration where all the star players are hitting .210.
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Re: Remaining schedule
How is MLB handling the fact that StL is only going to play 58 games this year?
In other words, if the Cubs go 89 the rest of the way to finish 3327 (.550) and StL goes 149 the rest of the way to finish 3226 (.552), who wins the division?
In other words, if the Cubs go 89 the rest of the way to finish 3327 (.550) and StL goes 149 the rest of the way to finish 3226 (.552), who wins the division?
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Re: Remaining schedule
champaignchris wrote:How is MLB handling the fact that StL is only going to play 58 games this year?
In other words, if the Cubs go 89 the rest of the way to finish 3327 (.550) and StL goes 149 the rest of the way to finish 3226 (.552), who wins the division?
St Louis has two more games against Detroit that they’d make up on the Monday after the season ends if necessary. There are no tiebreaker games so ties are resolved by H2H, then your division record them record in the last 20 games.
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Re: Remaining schedule
I think if the team finishes this week strong, let's say 32, the division is over. As CW11 posted, it already takes something like 15 of 20 for another team to catch us, and it becomes even tougher if we take care of business in the H2H games. It can happen, it's basically exactly what happened in 2018, but it's long odds made even longer by the H2Hs between the Brewers and Cards.
I mentioned this in the GT last night but I think the big thing is staying ahead of the Braves. The #2 seed in the NL is going to get one of the Marlins, Giants, or Rockies. The #3 seed is going to get the Phillies or the 2nd place team in the Central. The Phillies especially are scary, as Nola and Wheeler is probably the best 12 punch in the NL.
I mentioned this in the GT last night but I think the big thing is staying ahead of the Braves. The #2 seed in the NL is going to get one of the Marlins, Giants, or Rockies. The #3 seed is going to get the Phillies or the 2nd place team in the Central. The Phillies especially are scary, as Nola and Wheeler is probably the best 12 punch in the NL.
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Re: Remaining schedule
I know we’re all a little scarred by what happened last year. But if a team is going to go on another improbable 182 run to blow past the Cubs in the standings, they have to start it right freaking now. This shortened season is a little disorienting and it’s easy to forget how little season is left.
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Re: Remaining schedule
Bertz wrote:The Phillies especially are scary, as Nola and Wheeler is probably the best 12 punch in the NL.
Yu and Kyle >
Phillies might have the worst bullpen of all the contenders in either league too, though I guess they might throw Howard and Velazquez in to boost the ceiling
The NL teams I don't really want to see are the Dodgers and weirdly the Mets if they sneak in (at least in the first series). I don't like how the Cubs match up against DeGrom at all even compared to the few other aces on his level
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Re: Remaining schedule
Brian wrote:Magic number is 19 for division, 14 for playoffs.
Part of the fun of the Cardinals playing 8 fewer games than the Cubs to this point is that despite a 3 game lead in the division, the Cubs currently do not control their own destiny in the division, as they are done playing the Cardinals and only have 17 games remaining.
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Re: Remaining schedule
The_Achiever wrote:I'm looking forward to the Cubs' division clinching celebration where all the star players are hitting .210.
Do you think they can get up to .210?
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Re: Remaining schedule
Cubswin11 wrote:https://twitter.com/ballskwok/status/1303546984842833923?s=21
not falling for this horsefeathers again
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Re: Remaining schedule
17 Seconds wrote:Cubswin11 wrote:https://twitter.com/ballskwok/status/1303546984842833923?s=21
not falling for this horsefeathers again
Not falling for basic math and probability of being in a good spot?
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Re: Remaining schedule
Cubswin11 wrote:17 Seconds wrote:Cubswin11 wrote:https://twitter.com/ballskwok/status/1303546984842833923?s=21
not falling for this horsefeathers again
Not falling for basic math and probability of being in a good spot?
Not falling for the cubs seemingly having it in the bag
these hypotheticals always make things seem more secure than they are, because ultimately 20 games or whatever is still a tiny sample size for this game. a 3 or 4 game losing streak by the cubs and a 3 or 4 game winning streak by the cardinals blows the whole thing up in half a week.
its kind of like the posts about the cubs only needing to go .500 after the 133 start to finish 3525. that seems like no problem because the cubs are at least an average team, but horsefeathers turns around so quickly in this sport.
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Re: Remaining schedule
17 Seconds wrote:Cubswin11 wrote:17 Seconds wrote:
not falling for this horsefeathers again
Not falling for basic math and probability of being in a good spot?
Not falling for the cubs seemingly having it in the bag
these hypotheticals always make things seem more secure than they are, because ultimately 20 games or whatever is still a tiny sample size for this game. a 3 or 4 game losing streak by the cubs and a 3 or 4 game winning streak by the cardinals blows the whole thing up in half a week.
its kind of like the posts about the cubs only needing to go .500 after the 133 start to finish 3525. that seems like no problem because the cubs are at least an average team, but horsefeathers turns around so quickly in this sport.
And a 3 game losing streak by the Cubs coinciding with a 3 game win streak by the Cardinals has a roughly 1.5% chance of happening. So, again, basic math and probability has us being in a good spot.
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Re: Remaining schedule
squally1313 wrote:17 Seconds wrote:Cubswin11 wrote:Not falling for basic math and probability of being in a good spot?
Not falling for the cubs seemingly having it in the bag
these hypotheticals always make things seem more secure than they are, because ultimately 20 games or whatever is still a tiny sample size for this game. a 3 or 4 game losing streak by the cubs and a 3 or 4 game winning streak by the cardinals blows the whole thing up in half a week.
its kind of like the posts about the cubs only needing to go .500 after the 133 start to finish 3525. that seems like no problem because the cubs are at least an average team, but horsefeathers turns around so quickly in this sport.
And a 3 game losing streak by the Cubs coinciding with a 3 game win streak by the Cardinals has a roughly 1.5% chance of happening. So, again, basic math and probability has us being in a good spot.
yes, i understand the odds are highly in their favor
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Re: Remaining schedule
With 2 weeks of the season left:
 The Cubs have 12 games
 The Cards have at least 18 (2 extra against the Tigers if necessary)
 The Brewers have 16
 The Reds have 14
If the Cubs go 66, in order to take division 1 from the Cubs:
 The Cards have to to go 144
 The Brewers have to go 142 (and have a better indivision record)
 The Reds have to go 140
 The Cubs have 12 games
 The Cards have at least 18 (2 extra against the Tigers if necessary)
 The Brewers have 16
 The Reds have 14
If the Cubs go 66, in order to take division 1 from the Cubs:
 The Cards have to to go 144
 The Brewers have to go 142 (and have a better indivision record)
 The Reds have to go 140
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Re: Remaining schedule
Obviously we still have a bit of work to do on the division, but the playoffs are a virtual lock, as is a top2 spot in the division.
I'll ignore the Reds since they have two more losses than the Brewers and fewer games left.
Cubs go 75 (3525), Mil has to go 151 to tie, which means the Cards lose 9 games and the best they could do is 3129.
Cubs go 66 (3426), Mil has to go 142 to tie, which means the best the Cards can do is 3228.
Cubs go 57 (3327), Mil has to go 133 to tie, so the Cards would have to go 100 in the nonMil games to tie (assuming Mil only loses to StL).
Cubs go 48 (3228), Mil has to go 124 to tie, so the Cards would have to go at least 82 in the nonMil games to tie.
Cubs go 39 (3129), Mil has to go 115 to tie, so the Cards have go at least 64 in the nonMil games to tie.
As for the division, we probably want Milwaukee to win 6 or 7 of the games. That would put them at 27 or 28 losses and the Cards at 26 or 27 losses.
I'll ignore the Reds since they have two more losses than the Brewers and fewer games left.
Cubs go 75 (3525), Mil has to go 151 to tie, which means the Cards lose 9 games and the best they could do is 3129.
Cubs go 66 (3426), Mil has to go 142 to tie, which means the best the Cards can do is 3228.
Cubs go 57 (3327), Mil has to go 133 to tie, so the Cards would have to go 100 in the nonMil games to tie (assuming Mil only loses to StL).
Cubs go 48 (3228), Mil has to go 124 to tie, so the Cards would have to go at least 82 in the nonMil games to tie.
Cubs go 39 (3129), Mil has to go 115 to tie, so the Cards have go at least 64 in the nonMil games to tie.
As for the division, we probably want Milwaukee to win 6 or 7 of the games. That would put them at 27 or 28 losses and the Cards at 26 or 27 losses.
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Re: Remaining schedule
We have the largest division lead in the NL and second largest in all of MLB
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Re: Remaining schedule
Between now and Friday, the Cubs play 3 games, while the Brewers play 6 and Cardinals play 8.
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Re: Remaining schedule
Looks like the Indians pushed Bieber back from his start vs us Wednesday per ESPN probables. He was scheduled to go Wednesday earlier this week. Civale is listed now.
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