Remaining schedule

soccer10k
Hall of Fame
Posts: 38959
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2006 7:21 pm
Location: Sacramento
x 1672

Remaining schedule

Postby soccer10k » Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:00 am

I was looking at the schedule the other day and it got me to look at the other teams in the division.

Cubs: 2 vs. Cin, 3 @ Mil, 2 vs. Cle, 3 vs. Min, 4 @ Pit, 3 @ CWS
Cards: 2 vs. Det, 3 vs. Cin, 5 @ Mil, 4 @ Pit, 1 vs. Pit, 3 @ KC, 4 vs. Mil, 1 @ Mil, 2 @ Det
Brewers: 1 @ Det, 3 vs. ChC, 5 vs. StL, 3 vs. KC, 3 @ Cin, 4 @ StL, 1 vs StL
Reds: 2 @ ChC, 3 @ StL 4 vs. Pit, 3 vs. CWS, 3 vs. Mil, 3 @ Min

If we're just looking at making the playoffs, 30 wins could be enough. Right now the Marlins and Giants the 7 and 8 seeds at .500. So let's say 31. Division is probably more, so let's say 33 or 34 to be safe, though this could be 31 or 32.

I'm not worried about the Reds at all for either one. They're already at 24 losses so to get to 30 wins, they'd have to go 12-6. Now, unless they only lose to StL and Mil but roll the other 12 games (unlikely since 8 are against us, ChW and Min), them getting to 30 wins would also likely give StL and Mil a loss or two.

Mil and StL I'll group together for obvious reasons. Playoffs-wise, probably the best thing for the Cubs is that these two teams play 10 times. Because for the Cubs to miss the playoffs, both of these teams would have to pass the Cubs (assuming the Reds don't go nuts), and the Cubs could still finish 3rd and still get in. if StL goes 6-4 in those games, Milwaukee would have to go 8-2 just to get to 30. We'll obviously have a better idea of what to root for after this weekend when those two teams play. Considering the Cubs have had 75 chances to put the Brewers away since Sept 2018 and haven't done it, the irrational part of me is assuming Mil will win 2 of 3. But if, IF, the Cubs win the series, we'd probably want Milwaukee to at least win 5 games to maximize our division odds. Cubs winning 2 and Mil going 5-5 vs. StL puts them at 29 losses. StL does have a weaker schedule but all those DHs are going to matter. Next week they play 8 games in 5 days.

If we're just looking at what the Cubs need to do, it's simple, pound the Pirates and don't get swept in the other series. If you give the Cubs 1 in each remaining series including Cincy (so win 2 of 3 in this one), and 3 of 4 vs. Pittsburgh, that's 33 wins, which is a playoff lock and probably gets the division. At the very least, it's second place. If they can't do that, well, they don't deserve a top-3 seed. For the playoffs it's even easier - 1 win per series gets you to 31.

As far as the actual playoffs go, there's a decent chance we end up playing the Cards or Brewers in the first round. The Cubs are more likely to be the 3 seed if they win the division since Atlanta has a softer schedule. That means they'd end up playing the worst #2 seed. The Pads are pretty much locked into the 4 seed so we'd draw either the East or Central #2. Conversely, if the Cards win the division, they'd probably also be the 3 seed so the Cubs, if 2nd, would either be the 5 or 6 seed. Would be nice to go on a bit of a run and get that 2 seed though.
0 x
In Theo we trust.

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 27682
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 8923
x 5989

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:30 am



1 x
Screw Pitchers

User avatar
UMFan83
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 81125
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 8:42 pm
Location: Southport Ave
x 3490
x 5452
Contact:

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:30 am

I’m not even sure we need 30 wins. Right now the Brewers are 18-22 and the Reds are 18-24. If the Cubs only win 28 games (meaning they go 3-14 the rest of the way) the Brewers would need to go 11-9 the rest of the way to overtake the Cubs, and the Reds 11-7.
0 x
Win it for Fred

User avatar
itisallpartoftheplan
All-Star
Posts: 4978
Joined: Tue May 27, 2014 11:38 pm
x 140
x 1178

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby itisallpartoftheplan » Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:42 am

By the of next Wednesday things will be pretty clear.
Cubs and Reds play twice
Cubs and Brewers play 3.

Cards and Reds have 3.
Cards and Brewers have 5.

Then on top of those games vs each other the Reds and Cardinals both have DH (Cin)Pitt and (Pitt)DET. There will be tons of games in the next 8 days.
0 x
-The Plan worked!!

User avatar
The_Achiever
All-Star
Posts: 1380
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 2:28 am
x 558
x 312

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby The_Achiever » Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:41 am

I'm looking forward to the Cubs' division clinching celebration where all the star players are hitting .210.
1 x

champaignchris
Starter
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2008 4:40 pm
x 9
x 208

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby champaignchris » Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:53 pm

How is MLB handling the fact that StL is only going to play 58 games this year?

In other words, if the Cubs go 8-9 the rest of the way to finish 33-27 (.550) and StL goes 14-9 the rest of the way to finish 32-26 (.552), who wins the division?
0 x

soccer10k
Hall of Fame
Posts: 38959
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2006 7:21 pm
Location: Sacramento
x 1672

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby soccer10k » Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:20 pm

champaignchris wrote:How is MLB handling the fact that StL is only going to play 58 games this year?

In other words, if the Cubs go 8-9 the rest of the way to finish 33-27 (.550) and StL goes 14-9 the rest of the way to finish 32-26 (.552), who wins the division?


St Louis has two more games against Detroit that they’d make up on the Monday after the season ends if necessary. There are no tiebreaker games so ties are resolved by H2H, then your division record them record in the last 20 games.
0 x
In Theo we trust.

User avatar
The Logan
Superstar
Posts: 15883
Joined: Thu Dec 06, 2007 3:03 am
Location: Southport Corridor
x 7306
x 2443

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby The Logan » Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:00 pm

Some Pepe Silvia horsefeathers going on in this thread.
1 x
Image

Bertz
All-Star
Posts: 2311
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:59 pm
x 889
x 1336

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby Bertz » Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:06 pm

I think if the team finishes this week strong, let's say 3-2, the division is over. As CW11 posted, it already takes something like 15 of 20 for another team to catch us, and it becomes even tougher if we take care of business in the H2H games. It can happen, it's basically exactly what happened in 2018, but it's long odds made even longer by the H2Hs between the Brewers and Cards.

I mentioned this in the GT last night but I think the big thing is staying ahead of the Braves. The #2 seed in the NL is going to get one of the Marlins, Giants, or Rockies. The #3 seed is going to get the Phillies or the 2nd place team in the Central. The Phillies especially are scary, as Nola and Wheeler is probably the best 1-2 punch in the NL.
0 x

champaignchris
Starter
Posts: 939
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2008 4:40 pm
x 9
x 208

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby champaignchris » Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:07 pm

I know we’re all a little scarred by what happened last year. But if a team is going to go on another improbable 18-2 run to blow past the Cubs in the standings, they have to start it right freaking now. This shortened season is a little disorienting and it’s easy to forget how little season is left.
0 x

TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 8981
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 835
x 876

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:27 pm

Bertz wrote:The Phillies especially are scary, as Nola and Wheeler is probably the best 1-2 punch in the NL.


Yu and Kyle >

Phillies might have the worst bullpen of all the contenders in either league too, though I guess they might throw Howard and Velazquez in to boost the ceiling

The NL teams I don't really want to see are the Dodgers and weirdly the Mets if they sneak in (at least in the first series). I don't like how the Cubs match up against DeGrom at all even compared to the few other aces on his level
0 x
Spoiler: show
Image


"We struck down evil with the mighty sword of teamwork and the hammer of not-bickering." - The Shoveler

User avatar
Brian
Hall of Fame
Posts: 30188
Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2004 7:43 pm
Location: Chicago
x 46
x 5907
Contact:

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby Brian » Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:53 pm

Magic number is 19 for division, 14 for playoffs.
0 x

User avatar
bukie
Superstar
Posts: 18862
Joined: Sat May 31, 2003 4:17 am
Location: Midlothian, IL
x 34
x 2176
Contact:

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby bukie » Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:56 pm

Brian wrote:Magic number is 19 for division, 14 for playoffs.

Part of the fun of the Cardinals playing 8 fewer games than the Cubs to this point is that despite a 3 game lead in the division, the Cubs currently do not control their own destiny in the division, as they are done playing the Cardinals and only have 17 games remaining.
0 x
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world he didn't exist.

stitchface
Superstar
Posts: 12489
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 3:28 am
Location: On a levee somewhere
x 51
x 175

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby stitchface » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:44 pm

The_Achiever wrote:I'm looking forward to the Cubs' division clinching celebration where all the star players are hitting .210.



Do you think they can get up to .210?
3 x

17 Seconds
Hall of Fame
Posts: 24269
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 2:36 am
x 958
x 2488

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby 17 Seconds » Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:16 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:https://twitter.com/ballskwok/status/1303546984842833923?s=21



not falling for this horsefeathers again
0 x

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 27682
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 8923
x 5989

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:57 pm

17 Seconds wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:https://twitter.com/ballskwok/status/1303546984842833923?s=21



not falling for this horsefeathers again

Not falling for basic math and probability of being in a good spot?
0 x
Screw Pitchers

17 Seconds
Hall of Fame
Posts: 24269
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 2:36 am
x 958
x 2488

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby 17 Seconds » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:17 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:https://twitter.com/ballskwok/status/1303546984842833923?s=21



not falling for this horsefeathers again

Not falling for basic math and probability of being in a good spot?


Not falling for the cubs seemingly having it in the bag

these hypotheticals always make things seem more secure than they are, because ultimately 20 games or whatever is still a tiny sample size for this game. a 3 or 4 game losing streak by the cubs and a 3 or 4 game winning streak by the cardinals blows the whole thing up in half a week.

its kind of like the posts about the cubs only needing to go .500 after the 13-3 start to finish 35-25. that seems like no problem because the cubs are at least an average team, but horsefeathers turns around so quickly in this sport.
0 x

squally1313
All-Star
Posts: 4511
Joined: Sat Mar 24, 2007 7:34 pm
x 1515
x 1744

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby squally1313 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:50 pm

17 Seconds wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
not falling for this horsefeathers again

Not falling for basic math and probability of being in a good spot?


Not falling for the cubs seemingly having it in the bag

these hypotheticals always make things seem more secure than they are, because ultimately 20 games or whatever is still a tiny sample size for this game. a 3 or 4 game losing streak by the cubs and a 3 or 4 game winning streak by the cardinals blows the whole thing up in half a week.

its kind of like the posts about the cubs only needing to go .500 after the 13-3 start to finish 35-25. that seems like no problem because the cubs are at least an average team, but horsefeathers turns around so quickly in this sport.


And a 3 game losing streak by the Cubs coinciding with a 3 game win streak by the Cardinals has a roughly 1.5% chance of happening. So, again, basic math and probability has us being in a good spot.
3 x

17 Seconds
Hall of Fame
Posts: 24269
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 2:36 am
x 958
x 2488

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby 17 Seconds » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:31 am

squally1313 wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Not falling for basic math and probability of being in a good spot?


Not falling for the cubs seemingly having it in the bag

these hypotheticals always make things seem more secure than they are, because ultimately 20 games or whatever is still a tiny sample size for this game. a 3 or 4 game losing streak by the cubs and a 3 or 4 game winning streak by the cardinals blows the whole thing up in half a week.

its kind of like the posts about the cubs only needing to go .500 after the 13-3 start to finish 35-25. that seems like no problem because the cubs are at least an average team, but horsefeathers turns around so quickly in this sport.


And a 3 game losing streak by the Cubs coinciding with a 3 game win streak by the Cardinals has a roughly 1.5% chance of happening. So, again, basic math and probability has us being in a good spot.


yes, i understand the odds are highly in their favor
0 x

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 27682
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 8923
x 5989

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:54 pm

Image
3 x
Screw Pitchers

Bertz
All-Star
Posts: 2311
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:59 pm
x 889
x 1336

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby Bertz » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:13 pm

With 2 weeks of the season left:

- The Cubs have 12 games
- The Cards have at least 18 (2 extra against the Tigers if necessary)
- The Brewers have 16
- The Reds have 14

If the Cubs go 6-6, in order to take division 1 from the Cubs:

- The Cards have to to go 14-4
- The Brewers have to go 14-2 (and have a better in-division record)
- The Reds have to go 14-0
0 x

soccer10k
Hall of Fame
Posts: 38959
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2006 7:21 pm
Location: Sacramento
x 1672

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby soccer10k » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:48 pm

Obviously we still have a bit of work to do on the division, but the playoffs are a virtual lock, as is a top-2 spot in the division.

I'll ignore the Reds since they have two more losses than the Brewers and fewer games left.

Cubs go 7-5 (35-25), Mil has to go 15-1 to tie, which means the Cards lose 9 games and the best they could do is 31-29.
Cubs go 6-6 (34-26), Mil has to go 14-2 to tie, which means the best the Cards can do is 32-28.
Cubs go 5-7 (33-27), Mil has to go 13-3 to tie, so the Cards would have to go 10-0 in the non-Mil games to tie (assuming Mil only loses to StL).
Cubs go 4-8 (32-28), Mil has to go 12-4 to tie, so the Cards would have to go at least 8-2 in the non-Mil games to tie.
Cubs go 3-9 (31-29), Mil has to go 11-5 to tie, so the Cards have go at least 6-4 in the non-Mil games to tie.

As for the division, we probably want Milwaukee to win 6 or 7 of the games. That would put them at 27 or 28 losses and the Cards at 26 or 27 losses.
0 x
In Theo we trust.

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 27682
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 8923
x 5989

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:42 am

We have the largest division lead in the NL and second largest in all of MLB
0 x
Screw Pitchers

User avatar
bukie
Superstar
Posts: 18862
Joined: Sat May 31, 2003 4:17 am
Location: Midlothian, IL
x 34
x 2176
Contact:

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby bukie » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:43 am

Between now and Friday, the Cubs play 3 games, while the Brewers play 6 and Cardinals play 8.
0 x
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world he didn't exist.

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 27682
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 8923
x 5989

Re: Remaining schedule

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:54 am

Looks like the Indians pushed Bieber back from his start vs us Wednesday per ESPN probables. He was scheduled to go Wednesday earlier this week. Civale is listed now.
0 x
Screw Pitchers


Return to “Cubs Discussions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests