Baez impresses Baez

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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon May 09, 2016 5:25 pm

[expletive], Baez has FINALLY filled the Castro-sized hole in my heart and I will not have this ruined by LOGIC.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby bcl412 » Mon May 09, 2016 5:29 pm

It's hard to hate a confident player who is clearly having the time of his life out there.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon May 09, 2016 5:34 pm

David wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
David wrote:
it is...but is he going to be a good enough offensive player that it's worth hurting KB's long term value and possibly pigeon holing him as a COF when he's a very good 3B? i know we can just throw him back at 3B if we want to...i'm just not that comfortable with jerking him around, for lack of a better phrase, and moving him off and then moving him back up the defensive spectrum.

obviously, if he is, then it's fine, because what makes the cubs a better team is more important than preserving/prioritizing an individual player's value...i'm just not sure there's any way to know at this point if javy is good enough to say that.

I believe I was one of the bigger KB 3B supporters back in the day, and I have zero issue moving him off for awesome Javy.


except we are FAR from certain that awesome Javy actually exists. like really, really far from certain. i really don't like screwing with bryant that way. i'd rather just stick old man zobrist in LF unless and until we can be reasonably sure that baez can be a competent MLB hitter. i don't really think any position needs to be given to javy anyway. i'm fine with maddon doing things the way he has, for the most part. it's the idea of handing javy 3B and moving bryant primarily to LF that i am not on board with.


and i was one of the biggest KB can't play 3B people back in the day.

Even if a drop off comes, some combo of Bryant in LF is probably going to be our best offense/defense mix.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby David » Mon May 09, 2016 5:43 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
David wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:I believe I was one of the bigger KB 3B supporters back in the day, and I have zero issue moving him off for awesome Javy.


except we are FAR from certain that awesome Javy actually exists. like really, really far from certain. i really don't like screwing with bryant that way. i'd rather just stick old man zobrist in LF unless and until we can be reasonably sure that baez can be a competent MLB hitter. i don't really think any position needs to be given to javy anyway. i'm fine with maddon doing things the way he has, for the most part. it's the idea of handing javy 3B and moving bryant primarily to LF that i am not on board with.


and i was one of the biggest KB can't play 3B people back in the day.

Even if a drop off comes, some combo of Bryant in LF is probably going to be our best offense/defense mix.


probably...i just think the long term with bryant needs to be weighed in to these decisions. schwarber is back next year and our best lineup is still probably with him in LF and KB at 3B.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon May 09, 2016 5:44 pm

that's when you need to trade rizzo
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon May 09, 2016 6:14 pm

David wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
David wrote:
except we are FAR from certain that awesome Javy actually exists. like really, really far from certain. i really don't like screwing with bryant that way. i'd rather just stick old man zobrist in LF unless and until we can be reasonably sure that baez can be a competent MLB hitter. i don't really think any position needs to be given to javy anyway. i'm fine with maddon doing things the way he has, for the most part. it's the idea of handing javy 3B and moving bryant primarily to LF that i am not on board with.


and i was one of the biggest KB can't play 3B people back in the day.

Even if a drop off comes, some combo of Bryant in LF is probably going to be our best offense/defense mix.


probably...i just think the long term with bryant needs to be weighed in to these decisions. schwarber is back next year and our best lineup is still probably with him in LF and KB at 3B.

I think he can adjust back to 3B, given all offseason and ST to get back into it.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby Duke Silver » Mon May 09, 2016 6:26 pm

Can we just assign them days of the week when one of them plays the outfield? Or maybe we can just switch them around each inning? Have them draw straws before the game? Or maybe the last one to make an out has to go out to left field?
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon May 09, 2016 6:39 pm

Let's trade Javy and Scwarbs for trout.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby Duke Silver » Wed May 18, 2016 12:00 pm

Javier Baez has a Contact% of 72.2%. It was 59.0% in 2014.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby UMFan83 » Wed May 25, 2016 4:27 pm

Does anyone remember this article from 2014?

http://regressing.deadspin.com/is-javie ... 1630201369

The premise was that Javy's power is derived from his violent uncontrollable swing that basically begins before he is fully able to recognize the pitch. Because of this, Javy had a lot of power in 2014 but struck out at something like 40% of his PAs.

One of the potential conclusions they drew was that slowing down Javy's swing would get it under control and his contact rate would improve but it would come at a great cost to his power.

Since then we've seen a new Baez that has a higher contact rate, a drastically reduced K rate and yet his ISO has gone from .155 in 2014 to ~.119 over the last 2 seasons in the majors.

So I guess my question is, should we be expecting more power out of Javy as he continues to develop or will he ultimately be more similar to the Javy we see today?
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby sneakypower » Wed May 25, 2016 4:51 pm

he's been decidedly below average with his FB/LD exit velocity, but i think more than anything his persistent problems with pitch recognition bury him in this regard

to better elaborate, it seems more & more now today's game is about working yourself into favorable counts (or perhaps this was always true) and sitting on a pitch you can reasonably predict and doing damage with it

this is pulled from a 9/2014 article, but i doubt the league-wide numbers here have changed substantially:

After 0-1 count: .221 average, .592 OPS
After 0-2 count: .166 average, .438 OPS
After 1-2 count: .178 average, .489 OPS (a .226 on-base percentage!)
After 2-2 count: .193 average, .584 OPS
After 1-1 count: .234 average, .656 OPS

On a 3-2 count: .216 average, .792 OPS
After 2-1 count: .252 average, .781 OPS
After 1-0 count: .268 average, .796 OPS
After 2-0 count: .281 average, .955 OPS
After 3-1 count: .274 average, 1.029 OPS
After 3-0 count: .282 average, 1.209 OPS (a .736 on-base percentage!)

my anecdotal observation is he's always putting himself more in holes during ABs and that obviously has shown to be deleterious; can he improve upon that? to his credit, he's adjusted his 2-strike approach for more contact, but sacrificing power there- but, i think this highlights why Carpenter/Zobrist types can still always hit for power despite having decidedly wimpy swings

Tommy La Stella and his 40? power has a better ISO as a Cub than Jorge Soler & Baez, both of whom have been scouted having 70 raw power
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 25, 2016 4:56 pm

sneakypower wrote:Tommy La Stella and his 40? power has a better ISO as a Cub than Jorge Soler & Baez, both of whom have been scouted having 70 raw power


I feel like TT does this no matter where he is every time you bust out one of these soul-crushing La Stella factoids:

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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby Duke Silver » Wed May 25, 2016 5:23 pm

The one thing that has pissed me off the most is when he lets a ball go right down the pipe for a strike and then he swings at some junk way inside that jams him and he pops it up. He's done a variation of this several times lately. It's like he's telling himself he is going to be patient and get ahead in the count. And he just isn't going to swing at the first pitch. And then when it goes by, he says, "horsefeathers it, I'm not letting that happen again." And so he turns to Hacking Javy, but only after he already gets down in the count. Suffice it to say, that's not a good approach.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 25, 2016 5:30 pm

Duke Silver wrote:The one thing that has pissed me off the most is when he lets a ball go right down the pipe for a strike and then he swings at some junk way inside that jams him and he pops it up. He's done a variation of this several times lately. It's like he's telling himself he is going to be patient and get ahead in the count. And he just isn't going to swing at the first pitch. And then when it goes by, he says, "[expletive] it, I'm not letting that happen again." And so he turns to Hacking Javy, but only after he already gets down in the count. Suffice it to say, that's not a good approach.


Yeah, from a super simplistic standpoint it feels a lot like when Castro would show "more patience" when all that meant is he was literally going to take some pitches no matter what and then start flailing to stay alive as opposed to actually seeing the ball well or better.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby UMFan83 » Wed May 25, 2016 5:35 pm

Duke Silver wrote:The one thing that has pissed me off the most is when he lets a ball go right down the pipe for a strike and then he swings at some junk way inside that jams him and he pops it up. He's done a variation of this several times lately. It's like he's telling himself he is going to be patient and get ahead in the count. And he just isn't going to swing at the first pitch. And then when it goes by, he says, "[expletive] it, I'm not letting that happen again." And so he turns to Hacking Javy, but only after he already gets down in the count. Suffice it to say, that's not a good approach.


Definitely noticed this too. At that point, he's lost the mental battle with the pitcher and while it doesn't always end up in failure, he's in a position where thats by far the most likely outcome.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby Duke Silver » Wed May 25, 2016 5:38 pm

UMFan83 wrote:Does anyone remember this article from 2014?

http://regressing.deadspin.com/is-javie ... 1630201369

The premise was that Javy's power is derived from his violent uncontrollable swing that basically begins before he is fully able to recognize the pitch. Because of this, Javy had a lot of power in 2014 but struck out at something like 40% of his PAs.

One of the potential conclusions they drew was that slowing down Javy's swing would get it under control and his contact rate would improve but it would come at a great cost to his power.

Since then we've seen a new Baez that has a higher contact rate, a drastically reduced K rate and yet his ISO has gone from .155 in 2014 to ~.119 over the last 2 seasons in the majors.

So I guess my question is, should we be expecting more power out of Javy as he continues to develop or will he ultimately be more similar to the Javy we see today?


Could be. But I don't think this is really the reason for the lessened power, or at least it's not wholly responsibly for it.

If you look at where Javy's gain in contact is coming from, it's on balls out of the zone. His contact on balls in the zone was up a little last year, but it is actually down some this year. It's his contact% on balls out of the zone that is way up, from 42.2% in 2014 to 69.3% this year. So I think the swing changes have helped him be able to cover more of the plate. He's also able to fight pitchers off. And he's able to at least not strike out on bad pitches that he chases. But, it's also much more difficult to be authoritative on balls out of the zone. This would explain the increase in weak contact -- he's making more contact on pitches that are likely to induce weak contact.

So is this a bad thing? Well, I don't think so. It's nice that he is making more contact, regardless of where he is making those contact improvements. Being able to fight pitchers off and just putting more balls in play is a good thing. But here's the problem: Javy is swinging at more balls out of the zone than ever before. His plate discipline hasn't improved at all. It's actually worse. It might not look quite as bad, because he isn't flailing away at breaking balls he has no chance of hitting. Now he is at least putting those pitches in play. But, when you are swinging at as much junk as Javy and putting it in play more often, you aren't going to hit for as much power.

That's the next step. The swing improvements are nice. It's a start. He couldn't survive making contact as rarely as he was. And he's improved there. He also probably can't survive with his plate discipline. So now we need him to improve there. It's a process. He's got another step or two to make still.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby Duke Silver » Wed May 25, 2016 5:55 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:The one thing that has pissed me off the most is when he lets a ball go right down the pipe for a strike and then he swings at some junk way inside that jams him and he pops it up. He's done a variation of this several times lately. It's like he's telling himself he is going to be patient and get ahead in the count. And he just isn't going to swing at the first pitch. And then when it goes by, he says, "[expletive] it, I'm not letting that happen again." And so he turns to Hacking Javy, but only after he already gets down in the count. Suffice it to say, that's not a good approach.


Yeah, from a super simplistic standpoint it feels a lot like when Castro would show "more patience" when all that meant is he was literally going to take some pitches no matter what and then start flailing to stay alive as opposed to actually seeing the ball well or better.


Eerily similar. There are little differences that give me hope here, though. This could be me just blowing smoke or I might be showing my naiveté, but I retain some hope. Starlin was already pretty established as a big league player. He was still really young. But, he'd had some success with his own approach. So he may have been more reticent to make those changes. Javy is still developing, still finding out who he is. He was willing to change his swing to make more contact, and it worked. He knows he's sucked. So maybe he will be willing to make a concerted effort at improving in this regard.

Starlin never really changed anything about himself. Throughout his young career, he was asked to change a lot of things. (And some of this stuff was stupid and frivolous.) But he was asked, "Hey, maybe be a little more attentive in the field. Or, hey, how about hustling grounders out." Nope. Starlin remained Starlin until the end.

Some guys are who they are. There are a rare few who can change their identity. Who knows how to recognize these guys, though. Maybe Javy is one that can. I wouldn't put it past him. There are very few things the man can't do physically. Maybe with enough work the talent will shine through.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 25, 2016 6:01 pm

I think it's that on the same team we have someone like Rizzo, who did seem to alter his approach pretty significantly. It often fairly or unfairly paints the expectations for other young players to be able to do the same.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby CubInOK » Wed May 25, 2016 6:49 pm

Enough about Baez. Let's talk about Lackey and how he's kinda slumping.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby David » Wed May 25, 2016 6:53 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I think it's that on the same team we have someone like Rizzo, who did seem to alter his approach pretty significantly. It often fairly or unfairly paints the expectations for other young players to be able to do the same.


I get what you're saying, but we've had a lot of these stories. They tend to come with good coaching/player development, something we never really had so we were blind to how much of a difference it could make. I'm definitely guilty of it.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 25, 2016 6:58 pm

David wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I think it's that on the same team we have someone like Rizzo, who did seem to alter his approach pretty significantly. It often fairly or unfairly paints the expectations for other young players to be able to do the same.


I get what you're saying, but we've had a lot of these stories. They tend to come with good coaching/player development, something we never really had so we were blind to how much of a difference it could make. I'm definitely guilty of it.


As much as Rizzo did, though? I get what you're saying, but those were some pretty drastic changes.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby David » Wed May 25, 2016 6:59 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
David wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I think it's that on the same team we have someone like Rizzo, who did seem to alter his approach pretty significantly. It often fairly or unfairly paints the expectations for other young players to be able to do the same.


I get what you're saying, but we've had a lot of these stories. They tend to come with good coaching/player development, something we never really had so we were blind to how much of a difference it could make. I'm definitely guilty of it.


As much as Rizzo did, though? I get what you're saying, but those were some pretty drastic changes.


Kris Bryant is a pretty good example. Fowler last year made some significant changes IIRC. Hell, the whole team has drastically reduced it's strikeout rate from one of the highest to one of the lowest...that's not just Heyward and Zobrist.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 25, 2016 7:03 pm

David wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
David wrote:
I get what you're saying, but we've had a lot of these stories. They tend to come with good coaching/player development, something we never really had so we were blind to how much of a difference it could make. I'm definitely guilty of it.


As much as Rizzo did, though? I get what you're saying, but those were some pretty drastic changes.


Kris Bryant is a pretty good example. Fowler last year made some significant changes IIRC. Hell, the whole team has drastically reduced it's strikeout rate from one of the highest to one of the lowest...that's not just Heyward and Zobrist.


Right, but again, Rizzo seemed to have to COMPLETELY change his approach. I think THAT'S what a lot of us have come to expect or hope for, at least in terms of how "easy" it should be, as opposed to guys tweaking just part of how they approach an AB.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby David » Wed May 25, 2016 7:11 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
David wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
As much as Rizzo did, though? I get what you're saying, but those were some pretty drastic changes.


Kris Bryant is a pretty good example. Fowler last year made some significant changes IIRC. Hell, the whole team has drastically reduced it's strikeout rate from one of the highest to one of the lowest...that's not just Heyward and Zobrist.


Right, but again, Rizzo seemed to have to COMPLETELY change his approach. I think THAT'S what a lot of us have come to expect or hope for, at least in terms of how "easy" it should be, as opposed to guys tweaking just part of how they approach an AB.


Honestly, I'm not really sure if Rizzo's changes are any more drastic than any of those guys and just more publicized specifically. We just know more about the stuff Rizzo did as it's been talked about a lot and the changes are more obvious to the untrained eye.
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Re: Baez impresses Baez

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed May 25, 2016 7:27 pm

Could be.
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