Projecting the 2016 Cubs

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Banedon » Wed Feb 17, 2016 6:39 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Grant Brisbee is just the best. Be sure to read that whole article for the part on the Mariners.


Thanks for mentioning that. I'd have only read the Cubs part and missed out.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby bukie » Wed Feb 17, 2016 10:27 pm

I feel like a lot of people aren't really understanding the statistic projections clearly. Statistical projections nearly always predict slight regression in every player. Meaning, if every player on the Cubs regressed slightly towards replacement level, the Cubs would project to WIN 100 GAMES. Now imagine if some of the young players improve...

I mean, predicting the Cubs to win 101 games isn't some pie-in-the-sky optimistic dream, it's a fairly conservative prediction. Optimism would be predicting 125 wins to set the winning percentage record.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Wed Feb 17, 2016 10:37 pm

bukie wrote:I feel like a lot of people aren't really understanding the statistic projections clearly. Statistical projections nearly always predict slight regression in every player. Meaning, if every player on the Cubs regressed slightly towards replacement level, the Cubs would project to WIN 100 GAMES. Now imagine if some of the young players improve...

I mean, predicting the Cubs to win 101 games isn't some pie-in-the-sky optimistic dream, it's a fairly conservative prediction. Optimism would be predicting 125 wins to set the winning percentage record.

Well, yeah, except most of the projections have them in the low to mid 90s, not 100. So they would need some positive variance overall to get to 100.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby bukie » Wed Feb 17, 2016 11:22 pm

David wrote:
bukie wrote:I feel like a lot of people aren't really understanding the statistic projections clearly. Statistical projections nearly always predict slight regression in every player. Meaning, if every player on the Cubs regressed slightly towards replacement level, the Cubs would project to WIN 100 GAMES. Now imagine if some of the young players improve...

I mean, predicting the Cubs to win 101 games isn't some pie-in-the-sky optimistic dream, it's a fairly conservative prediction. Optimism would be predicting 125 wins to set the winning percentage record.

Well, yeah, except most of the projections have them in the low to mid 90s, not 100. So they would need some positive variance overall to get to 100.

None of the statistical projections have them in the low to mid 90s except PECOTA. Vegas is not a stat projection. Steamer has them at 99, ZiPs has them at even more WAR so pending the baseline it could be even higher.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Wed Feb 17, 2016 11:28 pm

bukie wrote:
David wrote:
bukie wrote:I feel like a lot of people aren't really understanding the statistic projections clearly. Statistical projections nearly always predict slight regression in every player. Meaning, if every player on the Cubs regressed slightly towards replacement level, the Cubs would project to WIN 100 GAMES. Now imagine if some of the young players improve...

I mean, predicting the Cubs to win 101 games isn't some pie-in-the-sky optimistic dream, it's a fairly conservative prediction. Optimism would be predicting 125 wins to set the winning percentage record.

Well, yeah, except most of the projections have them in the low to mid 90s, not 100. So they would need some positive variance overall to get to 100.

None of the statistical projections have them in the low to mid 90s except PECOTA. Vegas is not a stat projection. Steamer has them at 99, ZiPs has them at even more WAR so pending the baseline it could be even higher.


Oh, thanks for letting me know Vegas isn't a stat projection.

I believe these are Steamer based http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.as ... =Standings

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

And be careful taking individual player WAR projections and adding them to a replacement level value to come up with a win total. It gets you close, but it's not perfect.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby bukie » Wed Feb 17, 2016 11:55 pm

David wrote:
bukie wrote:
David wrote:Well, yeah, except most of the projections have them in the low to mid 90s, not 100. So they would need some positive variance overall to get to 100.

None of the statistical projections have them in the low to mid 90s except PECOTA. Vegas is not a stat projection. Steamer has them at 99, ZiPs has them at even more WAR so pending the baseline it could be even higher.


Oh, thanks for letting me know Vegas isn't a stat projection.

I believe these are Steamer based http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.as ... =Standings

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

And be careful taking individual player WAR projections and adding them to a replacement level value to come up with a win total. It gets you close, but it's not perfect.

Fair enough, was simply stressing predictions vs projections. As for WAR projections, accounting for playing time and optimizing for correct usage still gets you some ridiculous aggregates.

121-41 for reals.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Thu Feb 18, 2016 6:07 pm

David wrote:Cubs over/under at Golden Nugget is set at 94.

The 89 number was apparently from the Atlantis in Reno.



http://www.bettingtalk.com/golden-nugge ... ng-giants/
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby bukie » Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:57 am

Jonah Keri writes for SI now: http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/18/the-30 ... r-rankings

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CHICAGO CUBS
On paper, this is the best team in baseball by a decent margin. Not satisfied with making the NLCS last year, the Cubs went out and signed the best position player on the market (Jason Heyward), a do-it-all All-Star to play second (Ben Zobrist) and even swiped an underrated rotation stabilizer from their archrivals in St. Louis (John Lackey). For all the help those veterans should provide, this is still a team with youth at many key positions, which is exactly what you want in the (mostly) post-PED era, when age curves have changed and players tend to peak earlier and fall off more sharply. The 2015 rookie class of Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and THE SCHWARBS could inflict serious damage on opponents. And that’s before we get to Anthony Rizzo, who’s just 26, and Heyward, who even entering his seventh major league season is actually one day younger than Rizzo. Having the best team on paper guarantees nothing, with lesser clubs able to get hot at the right time and roll to the World Series. But if you’re looking for a complete team, one with a deep rotation and multiple quality options in the pen, power and speed, youth and experience, a great manager and the kind of war chest to make the go-for-it moves needed for a big run, the Cubs are it.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby StylesClash » Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:42 pm

I want to throw a possible scenario out here and see the opinions on what could be done. Lets say it's late April to early May and Montero suffers a major injury that requires being out of action for multiple months. I suppose the same question could be asked if Montero, after the first month or two of the season, has taken a couple steps backward at the plate.

If Contreras is only mildly impressive during his first month in Iowa would he be the one to take the job? Would you slot Schwarber over to Catcher, and possibly only remove him against teams with several quality base stealers. Would the well respected, but very light hitting, David Ross be given the job? Or maybe even considering trading for someone.

While I hate the idea of increasing the likelihood of Schwarber getting hurt by being behind the plate, if Contreras isn't that impressive in Iowa it could possibly stunt his growth by rushing him to the bigs. So I would probably go with Schwarber temporarily behind the plate until it looked as though Contreras was capable of being ready for the job.

Plus the key games of the season are against St Louis, and other than Wong they have no one in their lineup who can steal. So its not as if with Schwarber behind the plate the Cardinals would be capable of running wild on him.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby bukie » Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:10 pm

The Cubs would handle it exactly the same way they did last year when Montero got hurt. Ross would be the primary catcher and Schwarber would spot start.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Fri Feb 19, 2016 2:24 pm

StylesClash wrote:I want to throw a possible scenario out here and see the opinions on what could be done. Lets say it's late April to early May and Montero suffers a major injury that requires being out of action for multiple months. I suppose the same question could be asked if Montero, after the first month or two of the season, has taken a couple steps backward at the plate.

If Contreras is only mildly impressive during his first month in Iowa would he be the one to take the job? Would you slot Schwarber over to Catcher, and possibly only remove him against teams with several quality base stealers. Would the well respected, but very light hitting, David Ross be given the job? Or maybe even considering trading for someone.

While I hate the idea of increasing the likelihood of Schwarber getting hurt by being behind the plate, if Contreras isn't that impressive in Iowa it could possibly stunt his growth by rushing him to the bigs. So I would probably go with Schwarber temporarily behind the plate until it looked as though Contreras was capable of being ready for the job.

Plus the key games of the season are against St Louis, and other than Wong they have no one in their lineup who can steal. So its not as if with Schwarber behind the plate the Cardinals would be capable of running wild on him.


Do you do anything but worry about stuff?

Had to throw your favorite team in there at the end too, eh?
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby StylesClash » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:24 pm

David wrote:
StylesClash wrote:I want to throw a possible scenario out here and see the opinions on what could be done. Lets say it's late April to early May and Montero suffers a major injury that requires being out of action for multiple months. I suppose the same question could be asked if Montero, after the first month or two of the season, has taken a couple steps backward at the plate.

If Contreras is only mildly impressive during his first month in Iowa would he be the one to take the job? Would you slot Schwarber over to Catcher, and possibly only remove him against teams with several quality base stealers. Would the well respected, but very light hitting, David Ross be given the job? Or maybe even considering trading for someone.

While I hate the idea of increasing the likelihood of Schwarber getting hurt by being behind the plate, if Contreras isn't that impressive in Iowa it could possibly stunt his growth by rushing him to the bigs. So I would probably go with Schwarber temporarily behind the plate until it looked as though Contreras was capable of being ready for the job.

Plus the key games of the season are against St Louis, and other than Wong they have no one in their lineup who can steal. So its not as if with Schwarber behind the plate the Cardinals would be capable of running wild on him.


Do you do anything but worry about stuff?

Had to throw your favorite team in there at the end too, eh?


Thank you for taking a legitimate question and giving a sarcastic non helpful answer in return. I'm trying to simply throw out a scenario which could occur to stir up some discussion, and you act like a total smug turd in return. People like you are way the quality of Internet discussion tends to be so bad.

So feel free to continue to drive topics into the ground. I personally don't see the point though.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Duke Silver » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:31 pm

StylesClash wrote:
David wrote:
StylesClash wrote:I want to throw a possible scenario out here and see the opinions on what could be done. Lets say it's late April to early May and Montero suffers a major injury that requires being out of action for multiple months. I suppose the same question could be asked if Montero, after the first month or two of the season, has taken a couple steps backward at the plate.

If Contreras is only mildly impressive during his first month in Iowa would he be the one to take the job? Would you slot Schwarber over to Catcher, and possibly only remove him against teams with several quality base stealers. Would the well respected, but very light hitting, David Ross be given the job? Or maybe even considering trading for someone.

While I hate the idea of increasing the likelihood of Schwarber getting hurt by being behind the plate, if Contreras isn't that impressive in Iowa it could possibly stunt his growth by rushing him to the bigs. So I would probably go with Schwarber temporarily behind the plate until it looked as though Contreras was capable of being ready for the job.

Plus the key games of the season are against St Louis, and other than Wong they have no one in their lineup who can steal. So its not as if with Schwarber behind the plate the Cardinals would be capable of running wild on him.


Do you do anything but worry about stuff?

Had to throw your favorite team in there at the end too, eh?


Thank you for taking a legitimate question and giving a sarcastic non helpful answer in return. I'm trying to simply throw out a scenario which could occur to stir up some discussion, and you act like a total smug turd in return. People like you are way the quality of Internet discussion tends to be so bad.

So feel free to continue to drive topics into the ground. I personally don't see the point though.


The reason you received that response is because it was yet another in a long line of weird, doomsday posts from you. Yeah, it would suck if our starting catcher suffered a major injury. But, why are you so worried about that happening? I don't think Angels fans are constantly on edge, worrying about what would happen if Mike Trout were to tear up his knee.

Luckily for us, we have the top catching prospect in all the minor leagues sitting at AAA. And we also have a mammoth dong masher in LF that has played catcher his whole life that would be able to slide back there in a pinch. It's not something to worry about.
Last edited by Duke Silver on Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:32 pm

StylesClash wrote:
David wrote:
StylesClash wrote:I want to throw a possible scenario out here and see the opinions on what could be done. Lets say it's late April to early May and Montero suffers a major injury that requires being out of action for multiple months. I suppose the same question could be asked if Montero, after the first month or two of the season, has taken a couple steps backward at the plate.

If Contreras is only mildly impressive during his first month in Iowa would he be the one to take the job? Would you slot Schwarber over to Catcher, and possibly only remove him against teams with several quality base stealers. Would the well respected, but very light hitting, David Ross be given the job? Or maybe even considering trading for someone.

While I hate the idea of increasing the likelihood of Schwarber getting hurt by being behind the plate, if Contreras isn't that impressive in Iowa it could possibly stunt his growth by rushing him to the bigs. So I would probably go with Schwarber temporarily behind the plate until it looked as though Contreras was capable of being ready for the job.

Plus the key games of the season are against St Louis, and other than Wong they have no one in their lineup who can steal. So its not as if with Schwarber behind the plate the Cardinals would be capable of running wild on him.


Do you do anything but worry about stuff?

Had to throw your favorite team in there at the end too, eh?


Thank you for taking a legitimate question and giving a sarcastic non helpful answer in return. I'm trying to simply throw out a scenario which could occur to stir up some discussion, and you act like a total smug turd in return. People like you are way the quality of Internet discussion tends to be so bad.

So feel free to continue to drive topics into the ground. I personally don't see the point though.


Discussing every possible scenario that could go wrong doesn't seem like a great discussion to me. They are endless and they exist for every team.

My extent of thinking about these things is that I'm fairly comfortable with the redundancy that the Cubs built into this roster to protect for when injuries inevitably happen. If we get lucky with them, that's great. If we get unlucky with them, that stinks but we're built to withstand a lot of things. I'm not really seeing how one made up injury scenario is worthy of much discussion, however likely or unlikely it may be. That being the case, I'd rather just make fun of it.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:34 pm

StylesClash wrote:
David wrote:
StylesClash wrote:I want to throw a possible scenario out here and see the opinions on what could be done. Lets say it's late April to early May and Montero suffers a major injury that requires being out of action for multiple months. I suppose the same question could be asked if Montero, after the first month or two of the season, has taken a couple steps backward at the plate.

If Contreras is only mildly impressive during his first month in Iowa would he be the one to take the job? Would you slot Schwarber over to Catcher, and possibly only remove him against teams with several quality base stealers. Would the well respected, but very light hitting, David Ross be given the job? Or maybe even considering trading for someone.

While I hate the idea of increasing the likelihood of Schwarber getting hurt by being behind the plate, if Contreras isn't that impressive in Iowa it could possibly stunt his growth by rushing him to the bigs. So I would probably go with Schwarber temporarily behind the plate until it looked as though Contreras was capable of being ready for the job.

Plus the key games of the season are against St Louis, and other than Wong they have no one in their lineup who can steal. So its not as if with Schwarber behind the plate the Cardinals would be capable of running wild on him.


Do you do anything but worry about stuff?

Had to throw your favorite team in there at the end too, eh?


Thank you for taking a legitimate question and giving a sarcastic non helpful answer in return. I'm trying to simply throw out a scenario which could occur to stir up some discussion, and you act like a total smug turd in return. People like you are way the quality of Internet discussion tends to be so bad.

So feel free to continue to drive topics into the ground. I personally don't see the point though.

hah, he thinks he's people
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:36 pm

Duke Silver wrote:
The reason you received that response is because it was yet another in a long line of weird, doomsday posts from you. Yeah, it would suck if our starting catcher suffered a major injury. But, why are you so worried about that happening? I don't think Angels fans are constantly on edge, worrying about what would happen if Mike Trout were to tear up his knee.


I mean, I get the point. But, Miguel Montero/Mike Trout?
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Tim » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:38 pm

Honestly, I don't mind discussions that look for areas of risk. However, this team has so many redundancies that every position can be covered by multiple guys.

Frankly, I think the biggest areas of risk are in Arrieta's right arm and the pen having some sort of collective meltdown. But the risk with Arrieta isn't much worth talking about. We all know that's a huge area of risk for us. The pen seems like the fertile ground for discussion on what could go wrong and what could be done about it.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:38 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:
The reason you received that response is because it was yet another in a long line of weird, doomsday posts from you. Yeah, it would suck if our starting catcher suffered a major injury. But, why are you so worried about that happening? I don't think Angels fans are constantly on edge, worrying about what would happen if Mike Trout were to tear up his knee.


I mean, I get the point. But, Miguel Montero/Mike Trout?


haha, but that makes the post even weirder

what will we do if our least valuable starter goes down for months?!
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Duke Silver » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:40 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:
The reason you received that response is because it was yet another in a long line of weird, doomsday posts from you. Yeah, it would suck if our starting catcher suffered a major injury. But, why are you so worried about that happening? I don't think Angels fans are constantly on edge, worrying about what would happen if Mike Trout were to tear up his knee.


I mean, I get the point. But, Miguel Montero/Mike Trout?


I am not comparing the two. I'm just pointing out the lunacy in him worrying about everything. As in: Yes, it would suck if our guys get injured, but every team could say the same thing. But, you actually bring up a more solid point. While I am sure Angels fans would be distraught if Trout were to get injured, they aren't sitting at home prepping for life without him. And yet this guy is worried about Miguel horsefeathering Montero getting hurt.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Duke Silver » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:50 pm

Tim wrote:Honestly, I don't mind discussions that look for areas of risk. However, this team has so many redundancies that every position can be covered by multiple guys.

Frankly, I think the biggest areas of risk are in Arrieta's right arm and the pen having some sort of collective meltdown. But the risk with Arrieta isn't much worth talking about. We all know that's a huge area of risk for us. The pen seems like the fertile ground for discussion on what could go wrong and what could be done about it.


Agreed. In general, it's a good discussion: "Hey, do we have enough middle infield depth? What's our outfield depth look like? More importantly, what's our rotation depth look like?"

But, in this instance, it is: "What happens if possibly our worst position player gets hurt? Do we turn to last year's top catching prospect in all of baseball or this year's top catching prospect in all of baseball?" It's just absurd.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:14 pm

Duke Silver wrote:But, in this instance, it is: "What happens if possibly our worst position player gets hurt? Do we turn to last year's top catching prospect in all of baseball or this year's top catching prospect in all of baseball?"


Hahahaha. Awesome.

This is as close to a perfect baseball team as we will ever see. The answer to any "what happens if X goes wrong" is "they probably win the division anyway" until you get to at least five things going wrong. It would legitimately be impractical to make it any better because it would be just plain inefficient to build sextuple redunancy.

Jake Arrieta's arm falls off tomorrow and they can't get it on ice fast enough to reattach it, cubs are still favored to win the division by five games.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby StylesClash » Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:19 pm

Miguel Montero is reaching the age range, especially for a catcher, where production could drastically drop at any point. Contreras, prior to last season, wasn't even a top 20 prospect in his own system. I think it's fair to ask if he can come close to replicating his great 2015 line. And the idea of putting a gifted hitter like Schwarber in a physically demanding position like catcher is a risk that might not be worth taking (Twin and Giant fans can relate to that dilemma).


So yeah those are the reasons I thought it worthy to discuss the catching situation. thanks for ignoring them and instead taking the sarcastic route. Well done.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:23 pm

StylesClash wrote:Miguel Montero is reaching the age range, especially for a catcher, where production could drastically drop at any point. Contreras, prior to last season, wasn't even a top 20 prospect in his own system. I think it's fair to ask if he can come close to replicating his great 2015 line. And the idea of putting a gifted hitter like Schwarber in a physically demanding position like catcher is a risk that might not be worth taking (Twin and Giant fans can relate to that dilemma).


So yeah those are the reasons I thought it worthy to discuss the catching situation. thanks for ignoring them and instead taking the sarcastic route. Well done.


David Ross is still on the Cubs and would get the majority of the playing time if Montero went down. Somebody else said it before but I guess it must be said again. Contreras probably doesn't come up unless he's doing amazing and Schwarber probably plays some catcher along with Ross.

There's no discussion.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:23 pm

StylesClash wrote:Miguel Montero is reaching the age range, especially for a catcher, where production could drastically drop at any point. Contreras, prior to last season, wasn't even a top 20 prospect in his own system. I think it's fair to ask if he can come close to replicating his great 2015 line. And the idea of putting a gifted hitter like Schwarber in a physically demanding position like catcher is a risk that might not be worth taking (Twin and Giant fans can relate to that dilemma).


So yeah those are the reasons I thought it worthy to discuss the catching situation. thanks for ignoring them and instead taking the sarcastic route. Well done.

And if his production drastically drops, what will we do? What will we do if the least valuable positional starter underperforms? These are questions that need answers.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Banedon » Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:26 pm

StylesClash wrote:thanks for ignoring them and instead taking the sarcastic route. Well done.


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