Projecting the 2016 Cubs

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Transmogrified Tiger
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:16 pm

Rizzo
Bryant
Heyward
Schwarber
Zobrist
Montero
Soler
Russell
Baez
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby davell » Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:19 pm

Bryant
Rizzo
Schwarber
Heyward
Soler
Zobrist
Russell
Baez
Montero
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:22 pm

Rizzo
Bryant
Heyward
Schwarber
Soler
Zobrist
Russell
Montero
Baez
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:25 pm

bukie wrote:So to change the subject, predict the rank of the following nine Cubs hitters by overall offense (say wOBA):

Baez
Bryant
Heyward
Montero
Rizzo
Russell
Schwarber
Soler
Zobrist


Rizzo
Schwarber
Bryant
Heyward
Soler
Zobrist
Russell
Montero
Baez
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The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby dawson1989 » Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:48 pm

bukie wrote:So to change the subject, predict the rank of the following nine Cubs hitters by overall offense (say wOBA):

Baez
Bryant
Heyward
Montero
Rizzo
Russell
Schwarber
Soler
Zobrist


Rizzo
Bryant
Heyward
Schwarber
Zobrist
Russell
Soler
Baez
Montero
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby bukie » Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:25 pm

bukie wrote:So to change the subject, predict the rank of the following nine Cubs hitters by overall offense (say wOBA):

Baez
Bryant
Heyward
Montero
Rizzo
Russell
Schwarber
Soler
Zobrist


As for me:
Rizzo
Bryant
Soler
Baez
Russell
Schwarber
Heyward
Zobrist
Montero
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby NOLA » Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:52 pm

Or for fun, if the Cardinals and Cubs were on the same team, how would you rank them? :twisted:
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Feb 19, 2016 11:02 pm

NOLA wrote:Or for fun, if the Cardinals and Cubs were on the same team, how would you rank them? :twisted:


Using ZiPS, the Cubs have the top 3 hitters and 7 of the top 9. That's fun.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Vinestal » Fri Feb 19, 2016 11:20 pm

bukie wrote:So to change the subject, predict the rank of the following nine Cubs hitters by overall offense (say wOBA):

Baez
Bryant
Heyward
Montero
Rizzo
Russell
Schwarber
Soler
Zobrist


Schwarber
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Heyward
Soler
Zobrist
Russell
Montero
0 x

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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby sneakypower » Fri Feb 19, 2016 11:32 pm

NOLA wrote:Or for fun, if the Cardinals and Cubs were on the same team, how would you rank them? :twisted:

Rizzo
Bryant
Schwarber
Heyward
Carpenter
Zobrist
Holliday
Piscotty
Grichuk
Soler
Moss / Adams
Russell
Wong
Peralta
Gyorko
Montero
Baez
Molina
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby weis21 » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:39 am

bukie wrote:So to change the subject, predict the rank of the following nine Cubs hitters by overall offense (say wOBA):
Baez
Bryant
Heyward
Montero
Rizzo
Russell
Schwarber
Soler
Zobrist


Rizzo
Schwarber
Bryant
Heyward
Soler
Baez
Zobrist
Russell
Montero

And Montero still OPS's .700
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby bukie » Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:01 pm

Which one of these "expert" opinions comes from a Cardinals writer?

No. 1: Is this the Chicago Cubs' year?

Jesse Rogers: Answering that question means answering it twice -- once for the regular season and once for the playoffs. Remarkably, the Cubs have gone to the postseason in back-to-back years only once since a three-year run from 1906 to 1908. Since then, almost every good Cubs season has been followed by disaster. Then came 2007 and 2008. The Cubs won the division each of those years but failed to win a playoff game in either. The Cubs will make the postseason in 2016. After that, it's anyone's guess, as the playoffs are a crapshoot. Considering the odds at that point are just 1 in 10, it would be hard to say this is the Cubs' year. But is this their best chance in decades? Probably. That's the most you can commit to when it comes to the Cubs. They have a horrible past to overcome.

Mark Saxon: I'm not willing to ride the Chicago Cubs-to-the-World Series bandwagon as eagerly as some of my colleagues. Even with Jake Arrieta's magical Cy Young season, they finished third in their division in ERA in 2015, and I'm not convinced John Lackey can replicate his 2015 performance in his age 37 season. The St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers all have deeper starting rotations. The Cubs have served notice that they're a team to be feared -- probably for years to come -- but they haven't guaranteed themselves anything.

Christina Kahrl: The question going in should be not whether this team is going to win the NL Central, but by how much they will do so. The Cubs have the best lineup in baseball and are ready to crank out massive amounts of run support, with the additional upside of Jorge Soler and Addison Russell being ready to add their names to the Cubs' burgeoning list of superstars. Adam Warren can make a huge difference if the team ends up giving him a high-leverage setup role. Anything can happen in a short series in October, but if Jake Arrieta isn't gassed by the time the Cubs reach the NLCS -- signing John Lackey certainly helps give the rotation the depth to be careful about that -- they can do it, even against the Giants in an even year or that Mets rotation.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:33 pm

jesse's math is a little off (it's 1/8 for non-wild card teams) but at least he's got the logic right
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Gilby » Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:15 am

His defense last year worries me, but I seem to always forget how good zobrist was with the bat in 2015 whenever I'm just looking up stats for our guys.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby davell » Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:35 am

David wrote:jesse's math is a little off (it's 1/8 for non-wild card teams) but at least he's got the logic right



Maybe I'm the only one, but I swear Rogers has gone from the worst beat guy I've ever seen, to where his stuff is mostly readable now.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:40 am

davell wrote:
David wrote:jesse's math is a little off (it's 1/8 for non-wild card teams) but at least he's got the logic right



Maybe I'm the only one, but I swear Rogers has gone from the worst beat guy I've ever seen, to where his stuff is mostly readable now.


i agree
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby treebird » Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:46 am

davell wrote:
David wrote:jesse's math is a little off (it's 1/8 for non-wild card teams) but at least he's got the logic right



Maybe I'm the only one, but I swear Rogers has gone from the worst beat guy I've ever seen, to where his stuff is mostly readable now.


he's still a dumbass and a lousy writer, but he is pretty connected and well-informed for the most part these days.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Sun Feb 21, 2016 3:18 pm

You're on a bus, could be worse
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Thu Feb 25, 2016 6:50 pm

So what do the projections look like now?
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Tim » Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:13 pm

David wrote:So what do the projections look like now?

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.as ... &teamid=17

A small gain to 53.6. If everyone stays healthy, this is a modest boost at best. Where this really helps us is if someone gets injured. And, of course, in the World Series.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby BrockLanders » Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:17 pm

Weren't were projected for 94 wins at Fangraphs before? At 95 right now.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:23 pm

Tim wrote:
David wrote:So what do the projections look like now?

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.as ... &teamid=17

A small gain to 53.6. If everyone stays healthy, this is a modest boost at best. Where this really helps us is if someone gets injured. And, of course, in the World Series.


Well, the redundancy should come into account in what is a median projection that theoretically takes into account downside like injuries (as well as upside)...their median should be higher if they are more protected against injuries.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby Duke Silver » Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:30 am

David wrote:So what do the projections look like now?


We are projected to win eleventy billion games.
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby sneakypower » Tue Mar 01, 2016 3:43 pm

we have 6 players who made at least 14 starts at cleanup last year (and Schwarber wasn't even one of them)
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Re: Projecting the 2016 Cubs

Postby David » Tue Mar 01, 2016 3:46 pm

sneakypower wrote:we have 6 players who made at least 14 starts at cleanup last year (and Schwarber wasn't even one of them)


I remember heading into maybe the post 2014 offseason saying we had a bunch of guys who projected to be 3-4/middle of the order type hitters and I remember goony causing a big fuss about it.


EDIT -

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/archiv ... 8#p3120428

I was a little off on the timeline. It was a little earlier in 2014.

EDIT 2 - http://www.northsidebaseball.com/archiv ... 5#p3120435 haha

EDIT 3 - this thread is horsefeathering great

imb wrote:Len "cubs 3b kris Bryant leads baseball with 47 home runs, ahead of four other cubs who each have 39"
JD: "Len I have to remind you that while that is cool , we lost a lot of games in 2013"
Len: "interesting, I'll have to fact check that because it's so cool now that I literally don't care."
JD: "ok just for the record the cubs were not good years ago."
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