Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

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Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby Derwood » Fri Jan 29, 2016 5:56 pm

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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby Tim » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:03 pm

I'm pretty sure I'd go with Heyward, but I'm just happy to have so many great hitters.
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:36 pm

Sure, why not. With the amount of awesome hitters we have and Joe's penchant for tinkering with lineups it's probably something we will see at some point. I'm guessing we will see at least 5 different leadoff hitters over the course of the year, Heyward, Zobrist, Schwarber, Russell, Coghlan, Rizzo, and La Stella will probably all get an appearance there.
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby David » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:41 pm

yeah i honestly don't care how the lineup is ordered as long as montero and the pitcher are somewhere near the bottom
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby UMFan83 » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:54 pm

Is the "smart" baseball philosophy still that lineup construction has minimal effect at best over a full season?
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:58 pm

UMFan83 wrote:Is the "smart" baseball philosophy still that lineup construction has minimal effect at best over a full season?

I believe so, pretty much yes. As long as you aren't purposely doing something dumb like hitting your pitcher or worst regular position player in the top 3 spots I don't think it really matters who hits where as long as some common sense is applied (i.e. some order of Zobrist-Heyward-Rizzo-Bryant-Schwarber-Soler/Coghlan hit in the first 6 spots).
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby Derwood » Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:03 pm

UMFan83 wrote:Is the "smart" baseball philosophy still that lineup construction has minimal effect at best over a full season?


If you use the same lineup every day, your 5-9 hitters will get fewer PA's over the course of a year, but Maddon mixes things up so much, I think it probably evens out
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby StylesClash » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:25 pm

UMFan83 wrote:Is the "smart" baseball philosophy still that lineup construction has minimal effect at best over a full season?


Disagree 100 percent. A hitter who slashes 280/350/450 absolutely has more business hitter at the top of the order than one who hits 280/300/500. The top of the order hitters are table setters, and so you want those players to get on base at a high rate for your middle of the order hitters to drive in. The idea that it doesn't matter whether a highly disciplined hitter hits second or sixth is ridiculous.
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby jumbo » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:39 pm

What was the most common spot for everyone in last year's lineups?
Rizzo had most of his at bats 4th, almost as many hitting 3rd
Bryant 3rd

Heyward (Career) had most 2nd, same for Zobrist

I would go with this

Zobrist
Heyward
Bryant
Rizzo
Soler
Schwarber
Montero
Pitcher
Russell

Or just rank the players in OBP and use that. Hard to screw this up.
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:53 pm

I love tedious baseball talk but couldn't possibly care less about a lineup construction conversation. That, to me, is way more common sense based and boring than say....sorting through the noise to find the Jason Heywards, Jon Lesters, Jake Arrietas, and Kris Bryants among the Fowlers, Jacob Turners, Chris Volstads, Brian Dopiraks, etc.

Schwarber's bat, especially against RHP, qualifies him to hit anywhere in the lineup, preferably closer to the top than the bottom. We all know that without having to think hard about it.
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby UMFan83 » Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:25 pm

StylesClash wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:Is the "smart" baseball philosophy still that lineup construction has minimal effect at best over a full season?


Disagree 100 percent. A hitter who slashes 280/350/450 absolutely has more business hitter at the top of the order than one who hits 280/300/500. The top of the order hitters are table setters, and so you want those players to get on base at a high rate for your middle of the order hitters to drive in. The idea that it doesn't matter whether a highly disciplined hitter hits second or sixth is ridiculous.


Here's a pretty detailed analysis: http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/Ruan ... up_art.htm
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:18 pm

StylesClash wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:Is the "smart" baseball philosophy still that lineup construction has minimal effect at best over a full season?


Disagree 100 percent. A hitter who slashes 280/350/450 absolutely has more business hitter at the top of the order than one who hits 280/300/500. The top of the order hitters are table setters, and so you want those players to get on base at a high rate for your middle of the order hitters to drive in. The idea that it doesn't matter whether a highly disciplined hitter hits second or sixth is ridiculous.


So hit that guy 9th instead.

Outside of the very first AB of the game, the idea of the top of the order kind of goes out the window, especially with Maddon.
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby David » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:10 pm

StylesClash wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:Is the "smart" baseball philosophy still that lineup construction has minimal effect at best over a full season?


Disagree 100 percent. A hitter who slashes 280/350/450 absolutely has more business hitter at the top of the order than one who hits 280/300/500. The top of the order hitters are table setters, and so you want those players to get on base at a high rate for your middle of the order hitters to drive in. The idea that it doesn't matter whether a highly disciplined hitter hits second or sixth is ridiculous.


it just doesn't matter nearly as much as you think it does what the order of the lineup is barring extremely silly scenarios like hitting the pitcher and all of your worst hitters at the top or something like that.
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby David » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:14 pm

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3 ... -lineup-by
This is probably the closest to how Maddon thinks about it
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby davell » Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:14 pm

David wrote:http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
This is probably the closest to how Maddon thinks about it


I don't really care about lineup construction either, as long as the better hitters are hitting early, but I don't think I've ever heard that the 3rd spot is less important than 4 or 5 before.(if I have, I've glossed over it due to indifference). That's at least kind of interesting.
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby David » Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:28 pm

davell wrote:
David wrote:http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
This is probably the closest to how Maddon thinks about it


I don't really care about lineup construction either, as long as the better hitters are hitting early, but I don't think I've ever heard that the 3rd spot is less important than 4 or 5 before.(if I have, I've glossed over it due to indifference). That's at least kind of interesting.


Think we talked about that quite a bit last year when talking about lineups/Maddon's lineups/pitcher 8th etc.

I think hitting the pitcher 8th changes the equation a LITTLE bit there, though.
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby RammyFanny » Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:29 pm

Yeah, don't care.

But just for fun: the only thing I prefer is to seperate Zobrist and Heyward from batting 1-2 so we can distribute a little of that contact rate around, but even that's just preference. I do like the bat one of your best hitters 2nd thing we did too.

Heyward leading off makes a ton of sense, but there were some articles (I think his last year in Atlanta) where he talked about not liking to leadoff. I'm sure he's said the right things publicly for us but I doubt that's changed even if I don't really get it.
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby Duke Silver » Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:58 pm

davell wrote:
David wrote:http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
This is probably the closest to how Maddon thinks about it


I don't really care about lineup construction either, as long as the better hitters are hitting early, but I don't think I've ever heard that the 3rd spot is less important than 4 or 5 before.(if I have, I've glossed over it due to indifference). That's at least kind of interesting.


Essentially, it comes down to the fact that the three-hitter will often come up with two outs and nobody on in the first inning. So he's getting more ABs in situations that aren't conducive to run-producing.

But, like others have said, it doesn't matter much to me. There is certainly value in lineup optimization. But as long as the construction isn't completely crazy, then I don't mind too much if Bryant or Rizzo or Schwarber or Heyward is in the 2-hole or 5-hole or wherever. As long as we aren't, say, batting Javy lead-off and Rizzo 7th, or something like that, then I just don't care too much. There's a lot of other factors at play that can also have an impact, like splitting the lefties and righties up, or knowing which guys you might pinch hit for when a reliever comes in.
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby Rob » Sat Jan 30, 2016 8:20 pm

jumbo wrote:What was the most common spot for everyone in last year's lineups?
Rizzo had most of his at bats 4th, almost as many hitting 3rd
Bryant 3rd

Heyward (Career) had most 2nd, same for Zobrist

I would go with this

Zobrist
Heyward
Bryant
Rizzo
Soler
Schwarber
Montero
Pitcher
Russell

Or just rank the players in OBP and use that. Hard to screw this up.


We've got the personnel to break up the lefties all the way down the lineup, so I'd probably do that. My lineup would look something like this:

Heyward (L)
Zobrist (S)
Rizzo (L)
Bryant (R)
Schwarber (L)
Soler (R)
Montero (L)
Pitcher
Russell (R)

You could convince me to shuffle the guys batting 2/4/6 or 1/3/5 in just about any order among their subgroup as long as it didn't leave Bryant or Rizzo batting lower than 4th in the lineup though. Hell, I would be fine with something like this even:

Rizzo (L)
Bryant (R)
Schwarber (L)
Soler (R)
Heyward (L)
Zobrist (S)
Montero (L)
Pitcher
Russell (R)
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby David » Sat Jan 30, 2016 8:37 pm

I'm hopeful (and halfway expecting) of Russell hitting himself out of the 9 hole this year. Maybe Montero winds up there?
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby Tim » Sat Jan 30, 2016 8:39 pm

Rob wrote:
jumbo wrote:What was the most common spot for everyone in last year's lineups?
Rizzo had most of his at bats 4th, almost as many hitting 3rd
Bryant 3rd

Heyward (Career) had most 2nd, same for Zobrist

I would go with this

Zobrist
Heyward
Bryant
Rizzo
Soler
Schwarber
Montero
Pitcher
Russell

Or just rank the players in OBP and use that. Hard to screw this up.


We've got the personnel to break up the lefties all the way down the lineup, so I'd probably do that. My lineup would look something like this:

Heyward (L)
Zobrist (S)
Rizzo (L)
Bryant (R)
Schwarber (L)
Soler (R)
Montero (L)
Pitcher
Russell (R)

You could convince me to shuffle the guys batting 2/4/6 or 1/3/5 in just about any order among their subgroup as long as it didn't leave Bryant or Rizzo batting lower than 4th in the lineup though. Hell, I would be fine with something like this even:

Rizzo (L)
Bryant (R)
Schwarber (L)
Soler (R)
Heyward (L)
Zobrist (S)
Montero (L)
Pitcher
Russell (R)

Against righties, I'd probably start with something like this:

Heyward (L)
Bryant (R)
Rizzo (L)
Zobrist (S)
Schwarber (L)
Soler (R)
Montero (L)
Pitcher
Russell (R)

If Soler was tearing the cover off the ball, I'd swap him and Zobrist.

Against lefties, I'd probably go:

Zobrist (S)
Rizzo (L)
Bryant (R)
Schwarber (L)
Soler (R)
Heyward (L)
Ross (R)
Pitcher
Russell (R)
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby Gilby » Sat Jan 30, 2016 9:01 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote: the Fowlers, Jacob Turners, Chris Volstads, Brian Dopiraks, etc.


One of those things is not like the others.


I agree with Rammy in that I'd like to see one of Zobrist/Heyward batting 5th. Along those same lines, I'd prefer not to see Bryant-Schwarber-Soler hitting back-to-back-to-back; that's going to be a lot of K's. Fitting Rizzo and Zobrist/Heyward between those guys would be ideal to me. Soler and Schwarber might not be huge strikeout guys in the future, but the expectation should be that they're both at least 25% next year.
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby Tracer Bullet » Mon Feb 01, 2016 4:47 pm

on "give up" days when Ryan Theriot and Todd Walker are getting a breather, sure
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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Mon Feb 01, 2016 5:19 pm

yanrslatr wrote:on "give up" days when Ryan Theriot and Todd Walker are getting a breather, sure


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Re: Kyle Schwarber....lead off hitter?

Postby BigbadB » Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:28 pm

David wrote:I'm hopeful (and halfway expecting) of Russell hitting himself out of the 9 hole this year. Maybe Montero winds up there?


I don't think they are hitting Russell there because he hasn't managed to hit himself out of that spot yet. They like him there, which is actually a compliment to Russell. It adds a 3rd bat to set the table for the best hitters in the line up. Getting the pitcher's spot further away from when the #3 and #4 hitters hit is valuable to production.
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