The Cardinals

Discussion about other teams, non-cubs players, baseball history, sabr vs scouting, etc.
raisincharlie
Role Player
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:29 pm

Re: The Cardinals

Postby raisincharlie » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:25 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:In regards to Gorman... Eh, everyone hits for power now. That appears to be his only real tool, the swing and miss has to be a huge concern and lack of walks. He's a really intriguing prospect for sure and the age and level is a good mark for him, but I don't get the top 20-30 prospect in baseball love he's gotten.

He's 19 with a 10% walk rate in the minors. What are you talking about? Have you seen what other people his age are doing? He blows them out of the water.

10/29 BB/K with a .826 OPS in his first ~700 PAs at 19 with a lot of those numbers coming in the brutal FSL is more than fine. You would be hyping any Cub with those numbers. Not to mention what scouts say about him and what he'll grow into. Wait until he’s in the Texas League and PCL...
0 x

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 56419
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 4:23 pm
Location: Greater St. Louis
x 519
x 6878

Re: The Cardinals

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:59 pm

raisincharlie wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:In regards to Gorman... Eh, everyone hits for power now. That appears to be his only real tool, the swing and miss has to be a huge concern and lack of walks. He's a really intriguing prospect for sure and the age and level is a good mark for him, but I don't get the top 20-30 prospect in baseball love he's gotten.

He's 19 with a 10% walk rate in the minors. What are you talking about? Have you seen what other people his age are doing? He blows them out of the water.

10/29 BB/K with a .826 OPS in his first ~700 PAs at 19 with a lot of those numbers coming in the brutal FSL is more than fine. You would be hyping any Cub with those numbers. Not to mention what scouts say about him and what he'll grow into. Wait until he’s in the Texas League and PCL...


Lumping together Gorman's low-A and high-A numbers is not a very useful exercise. He was good in the midwest league, especially for his age, but not overly special, certainly not blowing peers out of the water. As a point of comparison, Gorman put up a .364 wOBA on 11% BB% and 28% K rates in low-A at 19, while the Cubs have Brennan Davis who has a .403 wOBA on an 8% BB% and 19% K% in the same league at the same age, and as a CF to boot. Cubs fans are excited about Davis's potential, but no one is saying 'watch out Cards fans' about his Major League impact yet. Then if you look at what Gorman's doing in High A, it's just not very good, .337 wOBA, sub-6% BB% and 31% K%. That doesn't mean he sucks, and it's noteworthy that he's not getting completely humiliated in High A at 19, but if we're talking about the major league team we are not at all close to 1) being sure Gorman is going to make it and 2) being certain Gorman is going to be an above average/impact player at that level.

Also, some unsolicited advice from someone who has thousands of posts at a Cardinals message board: if all your posts are nitpicking the degrees to which the Cardinals players are better than Cub fan perception, it's not an enjoyable experience on either side. Trying to have your team be perfectly represented by rival fans is never going to happen, and then you just get associated as *that* person who is coming across as a permanent antagonist, even if you're not trolling or insulting people.
8 x

raisincharlie
Role Player
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:29 pm

Re: The Cardinals

Postby raisincharlie » Sat Aug 31, 2019 7:41 pm

What league are you talking about?

Gorman is one of five 19 year olds in FSL and is only doing worse than Wander Franco (great prospect in his own right) and Jose Devers (guy in Stanton trade). Both good prospects.

Your other point is noted.....thanks. Not trying to troll but just cutting the BS that Gorman isn’t “anything special.”
0 x

Tryptamine
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5996
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:13 pm
x 6
x 124

Re: The Cardinals

Postby Tryptamine » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:19 am

raisincharlie wrote:What league are you talking about?

Gorman is one of five 19 year olds in FSL and is only doing worse than Wander Franco (great prospect in his own right) and Jose Devers (guy in Stanton trade). Both good prospects.

Your other point is noted.....thanks. Not trying to troll but just cutting the BS that Gorman isn’t “anything special.”


A good prospect absolutely. I have no problem with him being a top 100 guy, but some people putting him top 30 is just absurd. He's a guy who is going to have to provide 90% of his value with a bat and quite frankly he hasn't been all that great with the bat outside of his stint in rookie ball. Since last August 8th, following his promotion from rookie ball, he has posted a .236/.315/.423 line 19HR with a 30.9K% in 615PAs. Yeah he's super young for A+, but when your bat is your value then you have to hit. Let's compare him to Mason Martin another guy whose value is going to be basically entirely from his bat. 20 years old and his line between A and A+ this year is .254/.351/.558 with 35 bombs and a a 30.2K% in 556PAs. He isn't even sniffing top 100 lists. Long story short, Gorman is good but he isn't some elite prospect that Card fans should be drooling over. Save that drool for Dylan Carlson.
1 x

raisincharlie
Role Player
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:29 pm

Re: The Cardinals

Postby raisincharlie » Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:53 am

This isn’t popular with my Cardinal fan buddies but Gorman will be a much better player than Carlson.

I know the FSL and how hard it is on young hitters I’m not that worried. He will crush the Texas League. Hell Carlson struggled mightily until he was promoted. Carlson’s ceiling is the sky but I have the same reservations scouts have on him despite great numbers. I think Gorman could be very special. His defense is also impressing so it’s not all stick.

I’m not worried about his strikeout to walk ratio yet. Especially seeing the same struggle of some of today’s biggest stars had in the same level and league and age.
0 x

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 25927
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 7735
x 5450

Re: The Cardinals

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:34 am

raisincharlie wrote:What league are you talking about?

Gorman is one of five 19 year olds in FSL and is only doing worse than Wander Franco (great prospect in his own right) and Jose Devers (guy in Stanton trade). Both good prospects.

Your other point is noted.....thanks. Not trying to troll but just cutting the BS that Gorman isn’t “anything special.”

He’s a fun prospect and I’d gladly take him in the Cubs system but to act like he’s a “watch out for this guy” type prospect is a joke. Much like his top ~30 prospect rankings.
0 x
Screw Pitchers

BigSlick
Superstar
Posts: 14763
Joined: Sun Apr 16, 2006 7:04 pm
x 3145
x 525

Re: The Cardinals

Postby BigSlick » Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:32 pm

Who cares about all this other stuff I need some place to whine about the Reds playing us hard as hell and rolling over for the Cardinals
0 x
Image
"The only good sabermetrician is a dead one." --Andrew Jackson, 1776.

I have to admit its getting better...it can't get no worse - The Beatles (On the Cubs)

Tryptamine
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5996
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:13 pm
x 6
x 124

Re: The Cardinals

Postby Tryptamine » Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:39 pm

raisincharlie wrote:This isn’t popular with my Cardinal fan buddies but Gorman will be a much better player than Carlson.

I know the FSL and how hard it is on young hitters I’m not that worried. He will crush the Texas League. Hell Carlson struggled mightily until he was promoted. Carlson’s ceiling is the sky but I have the same reservations scouts have on him despite great numbers. I think Gorman could be very special. His defense is also impressing so it’s not all stick.

I’m not worried about his strikeout to walk ratio yet. Especially seeing the same struggle of some of today’s biggest stars had in the same level and league and age.


Yeah the FSL is notoriously hard to hit in, but what was his excuse at A ball where he was just OK? A .241/.334/.448 is hardly thrilling.
0 x

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 56419
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 4:23 pm
Location: Greater St. Louis
x 519
x 6878

Re: The Cardinals

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:42 pm

raisincharlie wrote:What league are you talking about?

Gorman is one of five 19 year olds in FSL and is only doing worse than Wander Franco (great prospect in his own right) and Jose Devers (guy in Stanton trade). Both good prospects.

Your other point is noted.....thanks. Not trying to troll but just cutting the BS that Gorman isn’t “anything special.”


My point is that being young while failing doesn’t give you extra credit(fwiw its the same point i’ve made about Cubs prospects like Ademan). In the MWL Gorman was barely in the top 10 of fellow teenagers in offensive performance. In the FSL there are very few teens, but he’s still been outight bad there, and the things that were suboptimal about his MWL performance have been even more worrisome. That doesn’t mean that Gorman isn’t a good prospect, not completely collapsing in the FSL at 19 is commendable. But being 19 doesn’t mean its a given you’re going to start destroying that league and the multiple leagues between there and MLB, especially when his MWL performance wasn’t elite and he plays a position that requires a big bat to be valuable. Gorman remains a good prospect and a big part of the Cardinals organizational depth, but if you’re writing him in a future MLB lineup in pen, or treating him in the same caliber of actual elite prospects(past STL examples being Taveras and Rasmus), you’re putting the cart before the horse.
3 x

User avatar
PackLandVA
All-Star
Posts: 2520
Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2004 5:42 pm
Location: Southern Arizona, baby!!
x 477
x 508

Re: The Cardinals

Postby PackLandVA » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:53 pm

TT>>>>>>>>>>RC
0 x
Sticks the landing!!!

raisincharlie
Role Player
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:29 pm

Re: The Cardinals

Postby raisincharlie » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:36 pm

A lot of goal post moving here.

First off, Brennen Davis didn't get promoted and there's no telling what Gorman would have done with a full season in Midwest League. It's a straw man argument that compares two different players entirely. I don't see the point.

This whole argument about Gorman started because someone said the Cardinals are getting old because of contracts. That was shot down quickly if you look at average age of the team and the fact that Molina is on his way out, Fowler will get be a backup if he's bad since he's in the OF. Carpenter is the only real issue and he's just a gap to Gorman anyways. Carlson up next year at freaking age 21.

Cardinals have DeJong, Wong, Knizner, Carlson, Bader next year. Edman also only 24. Gorman sometime in late 2021. Not an "old" team.

CMart only 27, and then Flaherty, Hudson, Hicks, Helsley, Gallegos, Brebbia, Gant, Ponce de Leon, Reyes, Junior Fernandez... who cares about Miller's age and nothing-contract? What's the average age there?

I was just disputing the fact that we're old. And Cubs have several old starters. Your whole rotation is old. Azolay is already an older prospect. Marquez is years away. You also have a lot of position players getting up there and Bryant contract ready to jack up payroll.
0 x

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 56419
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 4:23 pm
Location: Greater St. Louis
x 519
x 6878

Re: The Cardinals

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:42 pm

raisincharlie wrote:A lot of goal post moving here.

First off, Brennen Davis didn't get promoted and there's no telling what Gorman would have done with a full season in Midwest League. It's a straw man argument that compares two different players entirely. I don't see the point.


The point is that Gorman is not “blowing away his peers”, most organizations have a player with a similar age/production profile. He had a .623 OPS in the month before his promotion, so it’s quite an assumption that he would have been wrecking the MWL if he stuck around.

But if you want to leave that tangent, if you’re trying to talk up the long term viability of either team, you need to start at the top of the roster. The Cardinals have missed the playoffs 3 straight years not because they don’t have role players like Bader or fringe major leaguers like Edman, but because they’ve lacked star power, guys who can put up a 5 win season, and preferably with consistency. The Cubs are in their most precarious roster position in the last half decade, but they still have multiple years of Bryant, Baez, and Hendricks, plus guys who have very recently done so(Rizzo) or could make the small leap to that echelon(Contreras). The Cardinals still don’t really have anyone to count on in that regard, since Goldschmidt and Carpenter have fallen flat and have decline in front of them. You can maybe squint and see DeJong or Flaherty in the Contreras sense, but the roster still lacks starpower. If the solution to that is Carlson, an avalanche of roster fill, and far off prospects like Gorman, then their long term prospects as a team are going to be as dim as their recent past.
2 x

User avatar
Andy
Hall of Fame
Posts: 32710
Joined: Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:02 am
Location: West Michigan
x 892

Re: The Cardinals

Postby Andy » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:48 pm

Go celebrate your suddenly horsefeathering invincible 2019 pennant winners somewhere else and leave us in our misery, would you?
0 x
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:ITS THE THUGGISH RUGGISH BONE FOR GODS SAKES

raisincharlie
Role Player
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:29 pm

Re: The Cardinals

Postby raisincharlie » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:06 pm

I don’t think individual WAR is useful in grading team success and sustainability. Mostly because a guy like Hudson will never have a good WAR but always pitch well enough to keep his team in games and win despite a no good FIP. Until pitching WAR figures out that ground balls have significant meaning, it’s a flawed stat. And small sample UZR numbers mean nothing when you need several years of samples to get it close to an accurate number. Cardinals have a great team defense and base running value. Speed and defense has been a huge reason we failed in the Matheny years. That’s finally been corrected. And I don’t think Bader is a role player. He’s putting up starter WAR if that’s the measuring stick. Wong is having a 4 bWAR season finally and is peaking. Plenty of competitive baseball until Carlson and Gorman mature.

That rant aside, we’re not really an old team. I mean when comparing to the Cubs, we’re on par. We have an ace in the making in Flaherty. Another top 5 prospect in Reyes, who had flume injuries and can still figure it out and be valuable. And tons of young, nice bullpen pieces. Jordan Hicks has an amazing ceiling. Mikolas’s age doesn’t matter too much because he’s a soft throwing ground ball pitcher. I see why they extended.

Cubs have Lester, Hamels, Hendricks, and Darvish. With no one coming up the pipe that is scary. What’s the plan there? I mean if it’s about “your team vs my team” I just see an inverse of the same age problem.
0 x

User avatar
JudasIscariotTheBird
All-Star
Posts: 4711
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:05 am
Location: Denver, CO
x 4595
x 2000

Re: The Cardinals

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:12 am

Image
0 x
"None of these signal alarm bells to me"-Boris
"Sublime was driven by their frontman, who was, quite probably, a musical savant." -RIP Stannis
(Formerly Diceman4221)

User avatar
Hairyducked Idiot
Kyle in disguise
Posts: 34551
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 2:42 pm
Location: GRIP IT AND RIP IT
x 2037
x 2129

Re: The Cardinals

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:37 am

Nothing I have read in 25 years of online baseball message boards has convinced me anyone who posts on them can actually make meaningful predictions about A-ball teenagers.
0 x

User avatar
ManEatingTarp
All-Star
Posts: 1612
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:55 pm
Location: Chicago (Lincoln Square)
x 1

Re: The Cardinals

Postby ManEatingTarp » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:19 pm

In think Gorman will land somewhere between HOF and washout.
0 x

raisincharlie
Role Player
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:29 pm

Re: The Cardinals

Postby raisincharlie » Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:43 pm

I agree on the star power. I think Goldy is a nice anchor, despite approaching the age cliff, but he's not homegrown. Hoping Carlson and/or Gorman can change that.

I hate being above average but just bad enough to miss playoffs. Awful spot to be in for three years.

There are days where I wish we would just tank for picks like you guys did. But our owner would probably not allow it.
0 x

NonProfitCow
All-Star
Posts: 4798
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2005 7:15 am
x 184
x 673

Re: The Cardinals

Postby NonProfitCow » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:38 pm

raisincharlie wrote:There are days where I wish we would just tank for picks like you guys did. But our owner would probably not allow it.

You either weren't paying attention to July of 2018 or didn't pick up on what was happening.
0 x

raisincharlie
Role Player
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:29 pm

Re: The Cardinals

Postby raisincharlie » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:55 pm

NonProfitCow wrote:
raisincharlie wrote:There are days where I wish we would just tank for picks like you guys did. But our owner would probably not allow it.

You either weren't paying attention to July of 2018 or didn't pick up on what was happening.

Firing Matheny and trading Tommy Pham? There wasn't any tanking...? Enlighten me then.

The team made a few lateral moves and pushed some money around. A poor man's Yankees style "rebuild" more than anything.
0 x

User avatar
ManEatingTarp
All-Star
Posts: 1612
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:55 pm
Location: Chicago (Lincoln Square)
x 1

Re: The Cardinals

Postby ManEatingTarp » Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:08 am

NonProfitCow wrote:
raisincharlie wrote:There are days where I wish we would just tank for picks like you guys did. But our owner would probably not allow it.

You either weren't paying attention to July of 2018 or didn't pick up on what was happening.



The Cubs intentionally lost for half a decade so they could shed bad contracts, pick in the top 3 in the draft and stock up on international signings and money. It got them a WS, so they did it right. Good for them.
Saying the Cardinals 2 month reorganization last year is anything close to that is just stupid.
0 x

User avatar
Andy
Hall of Fame
Posts: 32710
Joined: Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:02 am
Location: West Michigan
x 892

Re: The Cardinals

Postby Andy » Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:13 am

ManEatingTarp wrote:
NonProfitCow wrote:
raisincharlie wrote:There are days where I wish we would just tank for picks like you guys did. But our owner would probably not allow it.

You either weren't paying attention to July of 2018 or didn't pick up on what was happening.



The Cubs intentionally lost for half a decade so they could shed bad contracts, pick in the top 3 in the draft and stock up on international signings and money. It got them a WS, so they did it right. Good for them.
Saying the Cardinals 2 month reorganization last year is anything close to that is just stupid.

They intentionally lost for 3 years, to be fair. 2010-11 was Hendry incompetence, unless your position is that trading Chris Archer for Matt Garza was a long-term move.
0 x
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:ITS THE THUGGISH RUGGISH BONE FOR GODS SAKES

NonProfitCow
All-Star
Posts: 4798
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2005 7:15 am
x 184
x 673

Re: The Cardinals

Postby NonProfitCow » Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:17 am

ManEatingTarp wrote:
NonProfitCow wrote:
raisincharlie wrote:There are days where I wish we would just tank for picks like you guys did. But our owner would probably not allow it.

You either weren't paying attention to July of 2018 or didn't pick up on what was happening.



The Cubs intentionally lost for half a decade so they could shed bad contracts, pick in the top 3 in the draft and stock up on international signings and money. It got them a WS, so they did it right. Good for them.
Saying the Cardinals 2 month reorganization last year is anything close to that is just stupid.

Stupid would be not recognizing that they were conceding the season and claiming that trading away a 5 WAR pre-arb player for nothing is "reorganizing."
0 x

User avatar
weis21
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 9202
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2006 6:45 am
Location: ECU
x 6505
x 1311

Re: The Cardinals

Postby weis21 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:35 am

Our small collection of Cardinals fan here all signing on to argue with each other is the most NSBB thing ever
6 x

squally1313
All-Star
Posts: 3980
Joined: Sat Mar 24, 2007 7:34 pm
x 1243
x 1439

Re: The Cardinals

Postby squally1313 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:33 pm

NonProfitCow wrote:
ManEatingTarp wrote:
NonProfitCow wrote:You either weren't paying attention to July of 2018 or didn't pick up on what was happening.



The Cubs intentionally lost for half a decade so they could shed bad contracts, pick in the top 3 in the draft and stock up on international signings and money. It got them a WS, so they did it right. Good for them.
Saying the Cardinals 2 month reorganization last year is anything close to that is just stupid.

Stupid would be not recognizing that they were conceding the season and claiming that trading away a 5 WAR pre-arb player for nothing is "reorganizing."

I'd argue the reasons for trading away Tommy Pham were a little different/worse than trying to parse between 'reorganizing' and 'rebuilding'.
0 x


Return to “General Baseball Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests