NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Discussion about other teams, non-cubs players, baseball history, sabr vs scouting, etc.
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:58 pm

David wrote:
Ding Dong Johnson wrote:
David wrote:

dear sweet jebus, I will cream myself if they pay him more than Yu


Where the hell'd you get that idea?

the idea that it would be possible for the Brewers to overpay for Cobb? I don't know, maybe planet earth. horsefeathers, I didn't say it was going to happen
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby David » Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:00 pm

Ding Dong Johnson wrote:
David wrote:
Ding Dong Johnson wrote:dear sweet jebus, I will cream myself if they pay him more than Yu


Where the hell'd you get that idea?

the idea that it would be possible for the Brewers to overpay for Cobb? I don't know, maybe planet earth. horsefeathers, I didn't say it was going to happen


while that would obviously be hilarious in the way that anything really stupid that the brewers might do would be, there's not a chance in hell the brewers pay cobb more than the cubs paid darvish
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The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:00 pm

ok?
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby David » Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:03 pm

Ding Dong Johnson wrote:ok?


just seems like a weird thing to say, but hey i hope the brewers sign cobb for more than darvish and then give $150M to trevor cahill
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The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby David » Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:53 am

holy crap i will have whatever this guy is having

The Brewers weren't supposed to be a playoff contender this quickly. They should still be in their rebuilding years. Meanwhile the Cubs are in the middle of their "window" that was opened after a long, painful rebuild and during which they have traded away most of their future to win another ring before everything comes crashing down.

I think where we are is a very fun place to be. We didn't have to suffer a long, painful rebuild. We didn't have to lose 100 games multiple years in a row to get top draft picks. Yet here we are, right in the middle of the conversation of how we can position ourselves for a good shot at the playoffs. We have a playoff capable roster that is pretty much locked in place for several years, and we have flexibility to make moves that hopefully will make us even better.

I'm very excited to see how the season plays out, and I'm certainly not going to write off the season just because "on paper" the Cubs are expected to be the best team in the division.

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=140
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The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby The_Achiever » Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:55 am

Yeah the brewers had so much more winning to fall back on, even before the 2016 WS.
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:11 am

I think where we are is a very fun place to be. We didn't have to suffer a long, painful rebuild. We didn't have to lose 100 games multiple years in a row to get top draft picks. Yet here we are


The Brewers have been to the playoffs 3 times since 1982 and have 22 losing seasons (8 at 90+ losses and 1 100+ loss) over that time and other than Yelich they don’t have an impact player on the current roster or in the minors coming. But sure, that is it fun place to be.
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby David » Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:23 am

At some point the Cubs' model of buying a rotation rather than developing one, and having a so-so bullpen will catch up to them.


how is this even a thought a person has?

and why does it seem like 95% of baseball fans online think that there's something inherently better about players who were drafted/signed IFA and developed compared to guys acquired via trade or free agency

these people are literally like "yeah, they're really good and all but they can't develop pitching so yeah and stuff"
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Feb 15, 2018 3:52 am

David wrote:
At some point the Cubs' model of buying a rotation rather than developing one, and having a so-so bullpen will catch up to them.


how is this even a thought a person has?

and why does it seem like 95% of baseball fans online think that there's something inherently better about players who were drafted/signed IFA and developed compared to guys acquired via trade or free agency

these people are literally like "yeah, they're really good and all but they can't develop pitching so yeah and stuff"


We had the oldest pitching staff in the national league last year by BR's reckoning, and we just added a 31-year-old pitcher with a history of arm problems to a 6-year contract. Our minor league pitchers are nothing special.

It's not something that keeps me lying awake at night, but if an opposing fan needs something to feel better about when the Cubs are 10 games ahead of them in the projections right now, it's a pretty reasonable place to look.
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby XZero77 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:10 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
David wrote:
At some point the Cubs' model of buying a rotation rather than developing one, and having a so-so bullpen will catch up to them.


how is this even a thought a person has?

and why does it seem like 95% of baseball fans online think that there's something inherently better about players who were drafted/signed IFA and developed compared to guys acquired via trade or free agency

these people are literally like "yeah, they're really good and all but they can't develop pitching so yeah and stuff"


We had the oldest pitching staff in the national league last year by BR's reckoning, and we just added a 31-year-old pitcher with a history of arm problems to a 6-year contract. Our minor league pitchers are nothing special.

It's not something that keeps me lying awake at night, but if an opposing fan needs something to feel better about when the Cubs are 10 games ahead of them in the projections right now, it's a pretty reasonable place to look.


As pitcher heavy as the past couple drafts have been, I feel like the farm is bound to start churning out reinforcements for the staff within the near future.

As far as Brewers fans go, I spend a pretty unhealthy amount of time skulking about on fan forums of other teams, and I really feel that they (Brewers fans) seem to be among the least informed/aware out there. Of course there aren't a ton of Brewer fan forums, so it's a small sample that probably isn't entirely representative. But then again, there aren't many Brewer fans in general, so maybe it is.

But man, there are some real solid gold specimens over at Brewerfan.net. Keithstone might be my favorite.
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby cubsclapp » Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:10 am

squally1313 wrote:I think the thought, besides flipping Santana for pitching, is to let Braun start at first base against every lefty and maybe even some righties. Thames was brutal against lefties last year, and really a sub-800 OPS in the second half for a first baseman isn't going to cut it either. Braun at first base would be a disaster, but it's just first base, and maybe they're hoping for increased offense with less defensive responsibility.


They got an .889 OPS from Aguilar vs lefties though too (granted, in only 115 PA).

And this is another example of how flawed the "Well they won 86 games and added these guys!" reasoning is for why the Brewers will be good. They got crazy production from guys like Aguilar and Sogard up and down the roster. They got 3.3 fWAR from Santana, which will be hard for both Cain and Yelich to top (and even if they do it won't be a substantial upgrade). They got 14-WAR from four pitchers currently projected for half that. Etc etc.
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby XZero77 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:33 am

cubsclapp wrote:
squally1313 wrote:I think the thought, besides flipping Santana for pitching, is to let Braun start at first base against every lefty and maybe even some righties. Thames was brutal against lefties last year, and really a sub-800 OPS in the second half for a first baseman isn't going to cut it either. Braun at first base would be a disaster, but it's just first base, and maybe they're hoping for increased offense with less defensive responsibility.


They got an .889 OPS from Aguilar vs lefties though too (granted, in only 115 PA).

And this is another example of how flawed the "Well they won 86 games and added these guys!" reasoning is for why the Brewers will be good. They got crazy production from guys like Aguilar and Sogard up and down the roster. They got 3.3 fWAR from Santana, which will be hard for both Cain and Yelich to top (and even if they do it won't be a substantial upgrade). They got 14-WAR from four pitchers currently projected for half that. Etc etc.


Yeah, and half their team had outrageous first half performances, then fell on their faces. And we're not talking about guys with established track records or young guys breaking out. Do we believe Eric Thames is suddenly, at 31, the .936 OPS player he was in the first half? No, he's probably much closer to the .794 player he was in the second half. The same could be said of Travis Shaw. Jesus Aguilar had a babip approaching .400 in the first half, then reverted.

Eric Sogard, he of the career .285 wOBA, posted a .402 in the first half last year (and then regressed to a much more Sogard-like .272 in the second).

One would have to do some mental gymnastics to convince themselves that the second half performance of the offense wan't much closer to what can be expected, at least from their returning players. Yelich and Cain will help, but those additions will be mitigated by the fact that they will marginalize to some degree Santana and Braun (or push them out entirely).

Pitching wise, Anderson, Nelson, and Knebel broke way out. Nelson, who was by far their best pitcher last year snd whose performance I can actually buy as a portent, will miss time and may not be the same. Anderson (who grossly outperformed his FIP), I'm not buying at all. If you squint really hard you can see Davies being Hendricks-like, maybe. Woodruff may become good, but he needs a lot of polish. Matt Garza is dead.

They're not going to sign Arrieta. The Rays aren't trading Archer to them, at least not for a price that won't really hurt. They might sign Cobb or Lynn.

There is a good reason most projections put the Brewers in the low-mid 70's in wins. These exuberant fans printing up "The Rebuild is Over" t-shirts are going to be scratching their heads when the Crew ends up with 79 wins.
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby weis21 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:29 pm

That’s far too many words analyzing the Brewers imo. This will suffice for me re: Brewers.

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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:58 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:We had the oldest pitching staff in the national league last year by BR's reckoning, and we just added a 31-year-old pitcher with a history of arm problems to a 6-year contract. Our minor league pitchers are nothing special.


We also dropped a 38 year old starter in the process. The Cubs rotation next year in approximate order is 31, 29, 28, 34, 28. A 28 year old is first up if anyone falters. The Brewers far inferior rotation is 30, 25, 30, 32, and 28, with 31 year old Miley as 6th starter.

Also, to that poster's original point, 6 of the Cubs' 13 pitchers were signed in free agency, 3 in the rotation. The Brewers? 5 of 13 and 2-3 in the rotation depending on where you think Miley lands. Someone should tell them that even when you play in the kiddie pool you still get wet.
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:10 pm

61
66
73

200 wins

followed by 97, 103, 92

followed by 292

83
74
82

239 wins

68, 73, 86

227

The "long painful rebuild" misnomer always cracks me up. In the first three years after signing Epstein and Co., we won 200 games and went to the playoffs 0 times. The Brewers won a monstrous 239 games over that same span, also went to 0 playoffs, and have since won an astounding 65 fewer games (and 1 less world series championship) than the cubs.

I'd say winning 227 games while watching us dick stomp the rest of the division the last three years has to have been more painful than 2012-2014.
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:17 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:We had the oldest pitching staff in the national league last year by BR's reckoning, and we just added a 31-year-old pitcher with a history of arm problems to a 6-year contract. Our minor league pitchers are nothing special.


We also dropped a 38 year old starter in the process. The Cubs rotation next year in approximate order is 31, 29, 28, 34, 28. A 28 year old is first up if anyone falters. The Brewers far inferior rotation is 30, 25, 30, 32, and 28, with 31 year old Miley as 6th starter.

Also, to that poster's original point, 6 of the Cubs' 13 pitchers were signed in free agency, 3 in the rotation. The Brewers? 5 of 13 and 2-3 in the rotation depending on where you think Miley lands. Someone should tell them that even when you play in the kiddie pool you still get wet.

The Brewer fans also think they are loaded in pitching prospects and depth between Davies being a bit younger, Woodruff, Barnes, Peralta, Ortiz and others in the minors (though I believe non rate as TOR arms by any prospect guys). It will be great when all their pitching prospects go to the way of 90% of pitching prospects and either completely die off or hit a marginal amount of their upside value.
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby David » Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:45 pm

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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby DiceMan4221 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:04 pm

David wrote:

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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:06 pm

what a friggin turd
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby ConstableRabbit » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:07 pm

David wrote:


"Waino, ConstableRabbit, Northside Baseball. You mentioned that you are 'only thinking about today and not tomorrow,' then went on to say that you're going to be 'the best St. Louis Cardinal you can be tomorrow.' Any comment on the inconsistency? Will you be retiring at the end of this season?"
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby ScrubMD » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:13 pm

BREAKING: Adam Wainwright still plays professional baseball, apparently.
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby Banedon » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:29 pm

lol he's gonna suck
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby Bull » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:50 pm

David wrote:holy crap i will have whatever this guy is having

The Brewers weren't supposed to be a playoff contender this quickly. They should still be in their rebuilding years. Meanwhile the Cubs are in the middle of their "window" that was opened after a long, painful rebuild and during which they have traded away most of their future to win another ring before everything comes crashing down.

I think where we are is a very fun place to be. We didn't have to suffer a long, painful rebuild. We didn't have to lose 100 games multiple years in a row to get top draft picks. Yet here we are, right in the middle of the conversation of how we can position ourselves for a good shot at the playoffs. We have a playoff capable roster that is pretty much locked in place for several years, and we have flexibility to make moves that hopefully will make us even better.

I'm very excited to see how the season plays out, and I'm certainly not going to write off the season just because "on paper" the Cubs are expected to be the best team in the division.

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=140

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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby Brian707 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:59 pm

Wow, just read a few brewerfan.net threads. LOL some of the posts there. Espeically KeithStone. Some level headed posts, but the thread about their Wisconsin only ticket preseale takes the cake. I just can't wait until the September series when they are 20 games back of the Cubs en route to a 77-85 record.
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Re: NL Central Also-Rans: Reds, Brewers, Pirates

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:05 pm

He's the guy now wondering if Thames' September numbers are indicative of him figuring things out after everyone else figured him out. Sure, that .447 BABiP is TOTALLY sustainable, my dude.
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