2018 Hall of Fame Class

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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby CubinNY » Thu Jan 25, 2018 7:18 pm

I love the HOF as a museum and I don't really care about the ballot stuff, however, Bonds was HOFer well before he started taking steroids. They could take away all of his numbers before that and he's still one of the best. This might be the case for Clemens too, but I"m not so sure.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby Derwood » Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:00 am

Guerrero will be first player in the Hall with an Angels cap

Marlins, Rockies and Tampa the only teams left with no players (unless you count the Nationals)
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby OleMissCub » Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:13 am

Derwood wrote:Guerrero will be first player in the Hall with an Angels cap

Marlins, Rockies and Tampa the only teams left with no players (unless you count the Nationals)


Vets Committee will put Helton in one day. Same for Larry Walker.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby OleMissCub » Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:39 pm

Having put in a bunch this year, let's see what the future holds. I've only included guys on this list who have a HOF Monitor score over 100.

2019:
- Edgar Martinez - I think he gets in. He had 70% of the vote this year.
- Mike Mussina - Also think he gets in. He had 63% this past year. He's so underrated. 270 wins and lifetime 3.68 despite pitching his entire career in two hitter friendly parks, his entire career in the AL East, and a big chunk of his career in the Steroid Era. Nine times he was in the top 6 for Cy Young.

1st Year On Ballot:
- Mariano Rivera - Duh
- Roy Halladay - His early death will help put him in on the first ballot.
- Todd Helton - Won't ever be voted in but I think will get in through Vets Committee one day.
- Miguel Tejada - Hall of Very Good. Doesn't have the counting stats necessary. Only 2400+ hits and 300+ HR.
- Andy Pettitte - Not a first ballot, but probably gets voted in eventually. The Yankee effect will help him out. If not, he seems like someone the Vets Committee will certainly put in at some point.
- Michael Young - No

2020:
- Larry Walker - This will be his last year on the ballot and with a weak year, I think he may sneak in. He's a Vets Committee guy down the road, regardless.

1st Year on Ballot:
- Derek Jeter - Duh
- Jason Giambi - No
- Alfonso Soriano - No

2021:
Since there is no one else, might this be a year where a Jonah Keri'ish campaign gets Omar Vizquel in?

1st Year on Ballot:
No 1st timers with a higher HOF Monitor than 100. Your highest 1st timers are Aramis Ramirez, Tim Hudson, and Torii Hunter, and none of those guys are ever going to be voted in.

2022:
The last year on the ballot for Clemens and Bonds. Maybe some writers change their stance and let them in on their final ballot claiming that "they've been punished enough by waiting 10 years". That seems like a very smug baseball writer thing to do.

1st Year on Ballot:
- David Ortiz - I assume he'll get in on his first try.
- Jimmy Rollins - I'm not sure he's a first ballot guy, but I think he eventually gets voted in. He was always a media favorite.
- Alex Rodriguez - He admitted to juicing. However he's done somewhat of a good job rehabbing his image in the past few years, maybe by 2022 the writers won't have the same view of him as they do Bonds and Clemens currently.
- Mark Teixeira - No
- AJ Pierzynski - No
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby SouthSideRyan » Sat Jan 27, 2018 2:07 am

I’m really going to enjoy the cognitive dissonance on PEDs for Pettitte vs Clemens
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby The Logan » Sat Jan 27, 2018 2:55 am

Andy Pettitte is such a blatantly awful case of the Yankee effect making people think he was good. He doesn't even deserve to get in with the Vet committee.

In 2000 his stats consisted of this:

4.35 ERA
1.59 WHIP
4.67 FIP
111 ERA+
191.2 IP
121 K's
89 BB's
10.1 H/9
4.2 BB/9
5.7 K/9

He finished 4th in Cy Young voting because he had a 19-9 record. I know in retrospect it's because voters didn't pay attention to the peripheral stats and only really looked at W-L, but even with knowledge of advanced metrics in today's present-day voting, dumbass writers will still give him votes when he doesn't deserve horsefeathers.

His career line when he was a "top tier pitcher" during the Yankees dynasty era was this:

9 years
3.94 ERA
1.38 WHIP
3.73 FIP
117 ERA+
1792.2 IP
1275 K's
579 BB's
9.5 H/9
2.9 BB/9
6.4 K/9
But... 149-78

Andy Pettitte was mediocrity personified who couldn't even put up good consistent numbers with steroids on his side, but will get consideration because of the sole fact he played on a team that gave him ridiculous run support.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:04 am

On the other hand...he's basically a 69 fWAR pitcher.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby OleMissCub » Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:17 am

The Logan wrote:
His career line when he was a "top tier pitcher" during the Yankees dynasty era was this:

9 years
3.94 ERA
1.38 WHIP
3.73 FIP
117 ERA+
1792.2 IP
1275 K's
579 BB's
9.5 H/9
2.9 BB/9
6.4 K/9
But... 149-78


John Lackey, essentially. His prime 9 years are almost exactly the same, aside from those wins:

3.89 ERA
1.32 WHIP
3.83 FIP
114 ERA+
1716 IP
1357 K's
513 BB's
9.2 H/9
2.7 BB/9
7.1 K/9
116-82
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The Logan
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby The Logan » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:03 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:On the other hand...he's basically a 69 fWAR pitcher.


So is Rick Reuschel. Sometimes WAR is stupid.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:25 am

Apparently I was being too subtle.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby bcl412 » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:30 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:On the other hand...he's basically a 69 fWAR pitcher.


I got you.

Nice.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby Banedon » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:47 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Apparently I was being too subtle.


When I think of you, I always think "excessive subtlety"
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby Derwood » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:50 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:I’m really going to enjoy the cognitive dissonance on PEDs for Pettitte vs Clemens


I think the dissonance will be David Ortiz going in first-ballot despite having actually failed a drug test
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby Bull » Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:21 pm

Derwood wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:I’m really going to enjoy the cognitive dissonance on PEDs for Pettitte vs Clemens


I think the dissonance will be David Ortiz going in first-ballot despite having actually failed a drug test

As long as the hall is more about who is not in than who is in, it’s stupid and irrelevant.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby Bote McBoteface » Sat Jan 27, 2018 2:02 pm

Really glad that Thome got in on the 1st ballot. One of my favorites of all time. I didnt even realize that Vlad didnt get in on his first ballot, thats a crock. But either way im glad hes in.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby The_Achiever » Sat Jan 27, 2018 3:34 pm

Derwood wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:I’m really going to enjoy the cognitive dissonance on PEDs for Pettitte vs Clemens


I think the dissonance will be David Ortiz going in first-ballot despite having actually failed a drug test


Yeah, Ortiz being the catalyst for the Boston team that broke the curse seems to give him immunity from everything. He was a huge winer and a boorish crybaby. Bonds was 10x the player Ortiz was and has, at worst, the same level of PED smoke around him.

As an aside I wonder what current Cubs will eventually make the HOF. Bryant looks like a lock, and I think Willy has potential there too. There should also be a room dedicated to nothing but showing Javy highlights 24/7. Nobody does baseball better.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby DonnieD » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:33 pm

sneakypower wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I guess I just don't understand the idea of it happening "too late." Like, is he saying because he wasn't that good when he was a younger player, it should count against him? Why?

And man, I was surprised at Ortiz only being a 50 fWAR player. I guess I just assumed he was 60+ even with the slow start to his career.

Trout's already passed him

also with Trout, funny to consider the only realistic way he could possibly miss the Hall right now is if he has a 70 HR season

Make that 61 HR year, there has never been anyone elected who has a 61+ HR season. Funny to think that with 7 such seasons so far, there is a non-zero chance it could actually stay that way.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby OleMissCub » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:36 pm

The_Achiever wrote:

As an aside I wonder what current Cubs will eventually make the HOF. Bryant looks like a lock, and I think Willy has potential there too. There should also be a room dedicated to nothing but showing Javy highlights 24/7. Nobody does baseball better.


Willy may have gotten a bit of a late start for a catcher. Not sure if he'll be able to put up enough counting stats to be HOF worthy, but by god I hope he puts them up. As you said, aside from Bryant, he's the only one who I could pretend to envision a future as a HOFer. He's one of the best catchers baseball has seen.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:55 pm

The_Achiever wrote:
As an aside I wonder what current Cubs will eventually make the HOF. Bryant looks like a lock, and I think Willy has potential there too. There should also be a room dedicated to nothing but showing Javy highlights 24/7. Nobody does baseball better.


Lester could come close in a Jack Morris type way since he has a lot of postseason accolades and finishes the next 3+ years of his career strong. Bryant is certainly on the right trajectory and also, of course, Bryce.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby The Logan » Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:57 pm

I really wish I could say Rizzo, but he may only have a shot if he can remain consistent into his mid-late 30's which is a long shot for most players these days, though he could get a lot of votes because of his leadership qualities, personality, and off-the-field philanthropic deeds. I know Derek Jeter was "The Captain" but now that he's gone I think Rizzo best personifies that term of endearment more than anyone else in baseball.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby Rob » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:50 am

I'm honestly sympathetic to Pettitte's HoF case, provided the voters can get over the steroid thing for the better players. Pettitte accumulated a lot of very high-quality innings during an incredible offensive era that makes his numbers look more pedestrian than they really are.

He's one of those guys who sits right on the fence, as far as I'm concerned. And those are the fun ones to debate, since you can be swayed by all sorts of ridiculous arguments.

I think CC Sabathia will be in pretty much exactly the same spot when he retires.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:03 am

The Logan wrote:Andy Pettitte was mediocrity personified


I wouldn’t vote him into the HOF but Pettitte’s a whole lot better than that. There’s so many crappy pitchers, he gave some 3700 above average and sometimes outstanding innings all during the steroid era.
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Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Class

Postby weis21 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:50 pm

The Logan wrote:I really wish I could say Rizzo, but he may only have a shot if he can remain consistent into his mid-late 30's which is a long shot for most players these days, though he could get a lot of votes because of his leadership qualities, personality, and off-the-field philanthropic deeds. I know Derek Jeter was "The Captain" but now that he's gone I think Rizzo best personifies that term of endearment more than anyone else in baseball.

hopefully they take into account that dude had his career postponed due to cancer, too. that's kind of, um, impressive to come back and be a monster in MLB
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