2020 Playoff Race

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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby bukie » Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:55 pm

I'm also curious to see if MLB makes the Cardinals play those 2 games against the Tigers if they end up in a tied scenario where they are 29-29 and other teams are 30-30, or if they'll just go to the tiebreakers since the winning percentage is identical.

Or if they finish 30-28 and the Reds finish 31-29, if they'll treat it as a tied scenario or they give the Cards the advantage because of a single percentage point of advantage.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby champaignchris » Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:08 pm

bukie wrote:I'm also curious to see if MLB makes the Cardinals play those 2 games against the Tigers if they end up in a tied scenario where they are 29-29 and other teams are 30-30, or if they'll just go to the tiebreakers since the winning percentage is identical.

Or if they finish 30-28 and the Reds finish 31-29, if they'll treat it as a tied scenario or they give the Cards the advantage because of a single percentage point of advantage.


Per the Passan article on ESPN.com today, the Cardinals will play the Tigers doubleheader (or a game of it) if it determines whether someone makes the playoffs. They will not play the doubleheader merely to determine seeding.

When determine seeding, they will go to winning percentage first. In your 30-28 versus 31-29 scenario, the Cardinals would get the better seed.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby soccer10k » Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:11 pm

champaignchris wrote:
bukie wrote:I'm also curious to see if MLB makes the Cardinals play those 2 games against the Tigers if they end up in a tied scenario where they are 29-29 and other teams are 30-30, or if they'll just go to the tiebreakers since the winning percentage is identical.

Or if they finish 30-28 and the Reds finish 31-29, if they'll treat it as a tied scenario or they give the Cards the advantage because of a single percentage point of advantage.


Per the Passan article on ESPN.com today, the Cardinals will play the Tigers doubleheader (or a game of it) if it determines whether someone makes the playoffs. They will not play the doubleheader merely to determine seeding.

When determine seeding, they will go to winning percentage first. In your 30-28 versus 31-29 scenario, the Cardinals would get the better seed.


The only way they’d play for seeding is the 4-5 which, while mathematically is still possible, obviously isn’t going to come into play.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Bertz » Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:11 pm

bukie wrote:I'm also curious to see if MLB makes the Cardinals play those 2 games against the Tigers if they end up in a tied scenario where they are 29-29 and other teams are 30-30, or if they'll just go to the tiebreakers since the winning percentage is identical.

Or if they finish 30-28 and the Reds finish 31-29, if they'll treat it as a tied scenario or they give the Cards the advantage because of a single percentage point of advantage.


Passan mentioned that in today's article. Sounds they will only be played if those games impact who is in or out, or who has home field in the first round (which would only matter if the Padres lose out). They won't be played purely for seeding.

Edit: Did not see that this got mentioned already!
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Forgotmyoldlogin » Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:26 pm

So is the Cubs’ magic number actually less than what we think it is? It seems really unlikely the Cards would be within a game of the Padres by Monday, right? Which means those two games likely won’t be played.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby bukie » Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:49 pm

Forgotmyoldlogin wrote:So is the Cubs’ magic number actually less than what we think it is? It seems really unlikely the Cards would be within a game of the Padres by Monday, right? Which means those two games likely won’t be played.

They'll be played if they're within 2 games of 9th place also, which is pretty likely. The difference between the 5th seed Marlins and the 10th seed Giants is 1.5 games.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:49 am

wait, so they won't play those 2 games if it decides the division? like, if the cards are in the playoffs and 1 game back of the cubs at the end of sunday, they wouldn't play the 2 game to try and win the division?

it would be pretty lame to win the division with cardinals fans being able to say they would have won it if they played the last 2 games
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby ConstableRabbit » Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:26 am

17 Seconds wrote:wait, so they won't play those 2 games if it decides the division? like, if the cards are in the playoffs and 1 game back of the cubs at the end of sunday, they wouldn't play the 2 game to try and win the division?

it would be pretty lame to win the division with cardinals fans being able to say they would have won it if they played the last 2 games

What?
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby bukie » Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:33 am

With 2 Phillies losses, the Cubs and Braves have clinched playoff spots
Last edited by bukie on Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:17 am

ConstableRabbit wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:wait, so they won't play those 2 games if it decides the division? like, if the cards are in the playoffs and 1 game back of the cubs at the end of sunday, they wouldn't play the 2 game to try and win the division?

it would be pretty lame to win the division with cardinals fans being able to say they would have won it if they played the last 2 games

What?


?
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:22 am

17 Seconds wrote:
ConstableRabbit wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:wait, so they won't play those 2 games if it decides the division? like, if the cards are in the playoffs and 1 game back of the cubs at the end of sunday, they wouldn't play the 2 game to try and win the division?

it would be pretty lame to win the division with cardinals fans being able to say they would have won it if they played the last 2 games

What?


?

!
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby soccer10k » Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:29 am

17 Seconds wrote:
ConstableRabbit wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:wait, so they won't play those 2 games if it decides the division? like, if the cards are in the playoffs and 1 game back of the cubs at the end of sunday, they wouldn't play the 2 game to try and win the division?

it would be pretty lame to win the division with cardinals fans being able to say they would have won it if they played the last 2 games

What?


?


I’m guessing he means the second paragraph. Who cares what the Cardinal fans would say in that scenario. We would win the division and they can suck it.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby ConstableRabbit » Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:55 am

17 Seconds wrote:
ConstableRabbit wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:wait, so they won't play those 2 games if it decides the division? like, if the cards are in the playoffs and 1 game back of the cubs at the end of sunday, they wouldn't play the 2 game to try and win the division?

it would be pretty lame to win the division with cardinals fans being able to say they would have won it if they played the last 2 games

What?


?

Who gives a horsefeathers about what hypothetical Cardinals fans would say to try to invalidate a banner? Just a bizarrely negative spin on what would be a great outcome for any season.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:05 am

Imagine a MAGA head lamenting how unfair it would be for
Democrats to be able to claim they would have won if all the votes counted.



They wouldn’t.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:57 am

i just remembered that they were covid idiots, which overrides everything
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:36 am

Only the Cubs

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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:52 am

We also clinched a top 2 division spot tonight. The Reds can't jump us since we own the H2H tie breaker (best they can do is tie with us losing out and them winning out) and the Cardinals-Brewers H2H will knock one (possibly both) from passing us. The following is a little murky with the Cardinals most likely playing 58, so the win % will be based on that for them.

If we go 0-5 rest of way:

Brewers 5-1 to tie, 6-0 to pass

Cardinals can't tie (by win%), 4-2 to pass (.534 win % vs .533 win %)

If we go 1-4 rest of way:

Brewers 6-0 to tie, can't pass (unless they have tie breaker)

Cardinals can't tie (by win%), 5-1 to pass (.552 win % vs .550 win %)

2-3 rest of way:

Brewers can't tie or or pass

Cardinals 6-0 to tie (.567 win% vs .567 win%), can't pass (technically they have like a .5668 win% vs .5666% for us so maybe they can pass by the 4th decimal) or else it's the tie breaker after win%, which IDK who has it or what it is since we tied H2H.


Anyone feel free to correct this if it's wrong.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Bertz » Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:01 pm

Second tiebreaker is division record.

- Cubs are at 22-16, with 2 left against the Pirates
- Cards are at 19-16, with 5 left against the Brewers
- Brewers are at 17-17, with 5 against the Cards and 1 against the Reds
- Reds (though it doesn't matter for us) are at 20-19, with one against the Brewers

So in the Cubs 0-5 scenario, if the Brewers tie it would go to the third tiebreaker, which is record in last 20 division games. I'm not going to calculate that, but I bet the Brewers have it, considering this scenario has them winning 5 of their last 6.

In the Cubs 1-4 scenario, if that win is against the Pirates, then again it would go to the third tiebreaker again, but if that win is against the White Sox, I think the Brewers would pass us.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:42 pm

If we want any chance at the 2 seed we need to win the next two vs the pirates it would appear. Assuming division record is the first tie breaker. Braves are 1 up on us overall and also 1 up on division record. So we need them to lose at least 1 of their final 2 vs the Marlins here while we win both vs the Pirates to just tie them for that tie breaker. They have the Red Sox this weekend, so tying with them and winning the tie breaker is our best chance at the 2 seed vs outright passing them. IMO.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Brian » Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:57 pm

wow, at this moment the NL Central has 4 of 8 playoff spots.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Brian707 » Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:13 am

The #3 seed is probably better to get than the #2 seed. The Marlins would be the worst record of the 2nd place teams.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:20 pm

Good. If the bats are gonna stay sucky, bring in the weather that makes the other teams suck too.

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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Brian » Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:33 pm

Brian707 wrote:The #3 seed is probably better to get than the #2 seed. The Marlins would be the worst record of the 2nd place teams.


The Cubs facing any baseball team right now isn't that advantageous
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby soccer10k » Fri Sep 25, 2020 4:45 am

I assume it's tiebreaker related but according to Fangraphs, the Cards have a better chance of finishing 1st and 2nd in the division than the Reds do but a worse chance of making the playoffs (87.7 for the Reds and 86.7 for the Cards).

I don't think Fangraphs has the tiebreakers set up properly though. They list Cincy at 0.1 to win the division but that's not possible. Best they can do is tie the Cubs and the Cubs would win a H2H tiebreaker with them and Cincy went 4-6 against St. Louis also so they'd lose a 3-way tiebreaker as well. Plus Cincy plays the Twins so it's not like they're favored to win 2 or 3 games this weekend.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby soccer10k » Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:40 pm

So if the Brewers beat the Cards the next two days, the Phillies beat the Rays twice and the Giants split with the Padres, then the Cards split with Detroit, who gets in? They’d all be 30-30. Could be even crazier if Miami loses tomorrow and Cincy loses twice. Even though they’d both be in, it would muddle up 2nd and 3rd.
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