2020 Playoff Race

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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby 17 Seconds » Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:34 pm

bukie wrote:NL playoffs set:
1. Dodgers vs 8. Brewers
2. Braves vs 7. Reds
3. Cubs vs 6. Marlins
4. Padres vs 5. Cardinals


about as well as it could have set up

it's crazy that none of nym/was/phi could get in with the expanded postseason
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Bertz » Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:46 pm

While I don't like good things happening for the Brewers, them beating the Dodgers would be AMAZING
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby bukie » Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:52 pm

White Sox lose, putting them 7th, Indians 4th.

Twins trailing 5-2 in the 10th,As get 2nd if the score holds Twins 2nd if they win.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Cubfanintheknow » Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:59 pm

17 Seconds wrote:
bukie wrote:NL playoffs set:
1. Dodgers vs 8. Brewers
2. Braves vs 7. Reds
3. Cubs vs 6. Marlins
4. Padres vs 5. Cardinals


about as well as it could have set up

it's crazy that none of nym/was/phi could get in with the expanded postseason


Kinda crazy to think there's a remote possibility the four remaining teams could all be from the NL Central.

Watch the Cubs be the only team to screw that up.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby bukie » Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:08 pm

Reds beat Twins 5-3, and AL playoffs are set:
1. Rays vs 8. Blue Jays
2. As vs 7. White Sox
3. Twins vs 6. Astros
4. Indians vs 5. Yankees
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:30 pm

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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:19 am

Still can’t believe we managed to get 4 of the 5 NL Central teams in the playoffs. Sorry Pirates
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:57 am

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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby bukie » Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:10 am

UMFan83 wrote:Still can’t believe we managed to get 4 of the 5 NL Central teams in the playoffs. Sorry Pirates

And 3 of 5 AL central teams. And none are playing each other in round 1, leaving open the possibility of 7 central teams in the division series. Or none.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Brian707 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:27 am

All the better seeds in the NL advance except the Braves. Setting up a Cubs-Reds NLDS
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:28 am

Seeing on twitter, don’t know if it’s true or guesses. But marlins rotation is going to be Alcantara-Lopez-Sanchez.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:46 am

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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby soccer10k » Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:49 am

17 Seconds wrote:
bukie wrote:NL playoffs set:
1. Dodgers vs 8. Brewers
2. Braves vs 7. Reds
3. Cubs vs 6. Marlins
4. Padres vs 5. Cardinals


about as well as it could have set up

it's crazy that none of nym/was/phi could get in with the expanded postseason


I think I’d prefer swapping the Brewers and Reds.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Bertz » Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:57 am



Sounds like Yankees are 7 PM both Tuesday and Wednesday

Edit:. And here's the whole thing

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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Irrelevant Dude » Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:12 am

1pm start Wednesday is certainly not ideal. Looks like I'll be trying to reschedule some work meetings.

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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:26 am

I also read that Game 2 is a 1pm start too. horsefeathers, I have a super busy week at work, looks like I won’t be seeing much

Edit: actually that was an unverified twitter account. Can’t find anything else that says it.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:52 am

UMFan83 wrote:I also read that Game 2 is a 1pm start too. horsefeathers, I have a super busy week at work, looks like I won’t be seeing much

Edit: actually that was an unverified twitter account. Can’t find anything else that says it.

I’d assume all NL Game 2 start times are TBD until they know how many AL games are going on Thursday.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby bukie » Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:05 am

Over/under on the first Bartman reference on Wednesday? I'm going to guess 2 hours before the game starts, during the day's pregame.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:14 am

bukie wrote:Over/under on the first Bartman reference on Wednesday? I'm going to guess 2 hours before the game starts, during the day's pregame.



Yeah poor guy. He’s gotta be so annoyed at this matchup
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:04 am

Twins don't play the Yanks first rd!

Also, the Reds are probably the sneakiest team in the NL, they've def played themselves back into contention
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby wvcbxl » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:09 am

Irrelevant Dude wrote:1pm start Wednesday is certainly not ideal.


It is for me, as that will be 8pm CET \:D/
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:23 pm

Cole v. Bieber should be pretty intense. I do not like Cleveland in that series at all, sucks because their best players are some of the very very very best players even if the overall roster is meh, but if anyone beats Cole once against the Yankees they have a shot

If I had to rank the SPs this postseason:

1: Cole - He was just too dominant last year to get off, obviously beatable with the HR but are not they all
2: Darvish - Most understated part of what should be a ML CYA season during a currently understated career is the 5 HRA in 76 IP, got screwed in 2017
3: Bieber - Hisfirst playoff appearance but obviously right with Cole as the best pitcher in the AL the past 2 years
4: Castillo - Underrated in general, which speaks more to his talent and dominance than a lack of attention, allowed 5 HRs this year in 70 IP
5: Hendricks - Loaded resume for the playoffs, could swap with Ryu
6: Ryu - Just 23 HRs in ~250 IP since last year, had a PCL home park this year, has been a good postseason pitcher, could put him 5
7: Bauer - He's as good as he thinks he is, which from his comments on Darvish is more top 10 than top 5 in the sport
8: Snell - One of the handful nastiest pitchers in the league when he's right,
9: Buehler - Just coming off the IL, a little more HR friendly this year, seems a little more vulnerable in spite of a dominant history in the playoffs
10: Gray - Just 4 HRs in his 56 innings this year and 21 in his 231 IP as a Red

This list is pretty subjective and I'll probably disagree with it somewhere later, but overall these playoffs are loaded with SP talent and I don't think the Dodgers have any of the tippy top best unless Kershaw finally flips the playoff script or Buehler is healthy. Urias is legitimately good just don't trust his durability enough yet, and Gonsolin's more competent than a game changer. Jesus Luzardo didn't make this list but I think he's as talented as any lefty in the playoffs. Feels disrespectful to leave a future HOFer like Greinke off. Woodrfuff's pretty good too, just a loaded field, same for Flaherty. Berrios and Maeda are really good, Berrios will only be 29 as a FA in 2023(!), and Dobnak's a sleeper for these playoffs - I'd say the Twins built their staff more like the Dodgers - no prime superstar with a hot hand right now but overall a deep (and beatable) pitching staff

I feel like I have a million hot takes on these playoffs but it's all a mess in this head...Like that Marlins matchup is perfect for the Cubs: Their lineup isn't incompetent with Brian Anderson as the Hydrox to Kris Bryant's Mega Stuffed Oreos, Alfaro, and a few former starters on bettter playoffs teams, but it is woefully undermanned with zero stars in the meat of their prime (unless you consider Anderson one, not unfair). Sixto Sanchez in the rotation is a great stand in for some of the elite stuff they might see in the playoffs, Alcantara's a solid stand in for the non-super aces maybe even better than a couple (coughGonsolin)...Other stuff

Edit: I'd swap in Giolito for Gray on that list, didn't notice he had such a strong followup
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Tue Sep 29, 2020 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:52 pm

So I browsed through this pretty fluffy preview of the playoffs that ESPN had:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29957774/mlb-playoffs-preview-everything-need-know-16-team-postseason

But what really surprised me was the odds they offered up on particular match ups.
63.9% likely to beat the Marlins seems kinda high. Its a 3 game series, ffs.

But only 33.9% to beat the Padres and 22.2% likely to beat the Dodgers seems absolutely bonkers. I also don't know why the Cubs would be a 57.7% fav over the Reds, either. Why is ESPN so dumb?
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby stitchface » Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:01 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:So I browsed through this pretty fluffy preview of the playoffs that ESPN had:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29957774/mlb-playoffs-preview-everything-need-know-16-team-postseason

But what really surprised me was the odds they offered up on particular match ups.
63.9% likely to beat the Marlins seems kinda high. Its a 3 game series, ffs.

But only 33.9% to beat the Padres and 22.2% likely to beat the Dodgers seems absolutely bonkers. I also don't know why the Cubs would be a 57.7% fav over the Reds, either. Why is ESPN so dumb?



First one isn't too bad considering home teams win 55% of the time over the last 145 years. Add that the cubs have a better record (and run differential) and 64% doesn't seem too out there. I suspect they are just going on game by game odds. The randomness of baseball makes those less than certain bets but they don't seem that unreasonable to me. Would you take the Cubs over the Dodgers at 3:1?
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Re: 2020 Playoff Race

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:09 pm

stitchface wrote:Would you take the Cubs over the Dodgers at 3:1?

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Mind you, 22.2 is closer to 4:1 than 3:1.

For context, Fangraphs has the Cubs as 56% likely to beat the Marlins. I know Tom up there said the Marlins are taylor made for the Cubs, but there are some stats that say the exact opposite. The Marlins have one of the worst chase rates in baseball. They will also be facing two starting pitchers that stay within the zone more than any other top-tier starting pitchers in baseball. If I cared about things anymore, I'd ne nervous. 56% seems right to me.
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