Banedon wrote: Regular Show wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Who cares if we have fewer roll over GBs to infielders?
It's not just that. MLB hitters are talking about how it's getting harder and harder to get base hits and just put the ball in play now. Defensive shifts, better and more detailed scouting reports, probably better catcher framing/presentation hurts them as well.
Right now, offense is fine but I'm worried about down the road if they ever solve this "juiced ball" paradox then HRs should correspondingly drop. I can see strikeouts keep rising to new crazy high levels if pitchers keep throwing harder. I don't see this trend of pitchers throwing harder letting up.
But there's been no noticeable downward trend in OBP or runs scored. So I'm not convinced that there's really some grand effect on offense. I'll be worried when that data points to some other offensive stat decrease.
There is absolutely a noticeable downward trend in OBP. It's been staved off a bit by the juiced ball, but it's happening. Here's the average MLB slash Line going back 15 years
2003 - .264/.332/.422
2004 - .266/.335/.428
2005 - .264/.330/.419
2006 - .269/.336/.432
2007 - .268/.336/.422
2008 - .264/.333/.416
2009 - .262/.333/.418
2010 - .257/.325/.403
2011 - .255/.320/.399
2012 - .254/.319/.405
2013 - .253/.317/.396
2014 - .251/.314/.386
2015 - .254/.317/.405
2016 - .255/.321/.417
2017 - .255/.324/.426
2018 - .247/.318/.407
The ball got juiced at the ASB of 2015, and unfortunately I don't have splits for that, but in 2014 horsefeathers was getting dire. And you can see this year now that the ball is only sort of juiced, things have taken a significant step back (though admittedly, playing out the rest of July/August will bump that line up a bit more).
I'm in the camp that I'd like to see something done. The two suggestions I've heard that I like the most are moving the mound back and making it so that relievers have to face at least 3 batters before you can make a mid-inning pitching change. Moving the mound back is the big one, I believe it's something like 6 inches equates to 1 MPH of effective velocity. So moving the mound back a foot would essentially return us to the velocity levels from 10 years ago. The other one probably wouldn't move the needle too much on offense, but it'd help some and it'd make games a hell of a lot more watchable.