Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby Cubbie Swagger » Tue May 10, 2016 6:25 pm

CubsBearsMagic wrote:I can't believe Eli Manning stormed the field after the Arrieta no-hitter.

Eh, Eli Manning probably has at least 10 years on that guy.
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby Gmoney08 » Tue May 10, 2016 6:46 pm

David wrote:
Gmoney08 wrote:One thing I noticed with all this RD talk is that the truely elite RD teams seems to win the Word Series a lot and dedinitely make the WS a lot.

So we can definitely make ourselves a significant favorite and up to maybe mid 20% chance compared to most #1 seeds. But, still the field had the odds over 1 dominant team.

Most of those teams were pre-playoffs. All you had to do was be the best in the league to make the world series. That's something the elite RD teams were very likely to do.


Valid points.

How have the elite RD teams of the playoffs era performed?
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Tue May 10, 2016 6:51 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
This is all pretty much moot because the Cubs are not going to win 130 games or anything close to that number.


There's TT, always with the cold water
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby SRQCub » Tue May 10, 2016 7:08 pm

Gmoney08 wrote:
David wrote:
Gmoney08 wrote:One thing I noticed with all this RD talk is that the truely elite RD teams seems to win the Word Series a lot and dedinitely make the WS a lot.

So we can definitely make ourselves a significant favorite and up to maybe mid 20% chance compared to most #1 seeds. But, still the field had the odds over 1 dominant team.

Most of those teams were pre-playoffs. All you had to do was be the best in the league to make the world series. That's something the elite RD teams were very likely to do.


Valid points.

How have the elite RD teams of the playoffs era performed?


SInce 2008, only one team who led the league in RD won a World Series.
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby Gmoney08 » Tue May 10, 2016 7:15 pm

SRQCub wrote:
Gmoney08 wrote:
David wrote:Most of those teams were pre-playoffs. All you had to do was be the best in the league to make the world series. That's something the elite RD teams were very likely to do.


Valid points.

How have the elite RD teams of the playoffs era performed?


SInce 2008, only one team who led the league in RD won a World Series.



So we are due for the top dog to win it again. Also, I was more curious of how the elite RD teams have fared, maybe the top 10 or 15 RD teams since the LCS format started?
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby Cubbie Swagger » Tue May 10, 2016 7:18 pm

It might also be worth noting that the Cubs are currently playing at a pace that hasn't been achieved in the last 100 years. Obviously, we have to assume some regression, but it's sort of difficult to use any of the recent successful teams as comparisons.

On another note, if you consider how many of our hitters are off to slow starts, it makes me pretty optimistic about the regression aspect.
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby David » Tue May 10, 2016 7:27 pm

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The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby Cubbie Swagger » Tue May 10, 2016 7:31 pm

David wrote:This guy doesn't think so

http://www.netonenews.com/2016/05/10/ma ... ld-series/

Props.
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby Cubbie Swagger » Tue May 10, 2016 7:34 pm

“I waited overnight before buying the ticket because I promised my wife I’d sleep on it,” says the 54-year-old sanitation worker turned carpenter.

Yep, that's right, you should make sure to sleep on it for a whole night. You don't want to literally jump on an airplane the first second that the thought pops into your head. That would be impulsive. Give it a solid 18 hours.
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby jersey cubs fan » Tue May 10, 2016 7:40 pm

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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby SRQCub » Tue May 10, 2016 7:40 pm

Gmoney08 wrote:
SRQCub wrote:
Gmoney08 wrote:
Valid points.

How have the elite RD teams of the playoffs era performed?


SInce 2008, only one team who led the league in RD won a World Series.



So we are due for the top dog to win it again. Also, I was more curious of how the elite RD teams have fared, maybe the top 10 or 15 RD teams since the LCS format started?


Last years Blue Jays are the best team in RD since 1999, I believe. I'll look some later.

RD is not as essential as you'd think.
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby sneakypower » Tue May 10, 2016 8:07 pm

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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby Banedon » Tue May 10, 2016 8:26 pm

David wrote:This guy doesn't think so

http://www.netonenews.com/2016/05/10/ma ... ld-series/


Fake news site.
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby David » Tue May 10, 2016 8:29 pm

Banedon wrote:
David wrote:This guy doesn't think so

http://www.netonenews.com/2016/05/10/ma ... ld-series/


Fake news site.


yeah



lol at rovell terming it a "feel good" story
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby BigSlick » Tue May 10, 2016 8:54 pm

When I was in Vegas a month ago I was really thinking about putting some cash on the Cubs for the WS just for fun (woulda been like $100) and I'm kicking myself cuz I'm sure the odds are waaay less appealing now
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby KrisBryantisaBeast » Tue May 10, 2016 9:01 pm

BigSlick wrote:When I was in Vegas a month ago I was really thinking about putting some cash on the Cubs for the WS just for fun (woulda been like $100) and I'm kicking myself cuz I'm sure the odds are waaay less appealing now


I was in Vegas the first weekend of April and bet a small amount on the Cubs to win the World Series. I only bet 10 to win 35 but even before the season started it wasn't really worth it but it was just a fun bet that I felt like I had to make while I was in Vegas.
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby David » Tue May 10, 2016 9:09 pm

the over under win total would've been a much better bet, especially that horsefeathering reno casino that had us at 89 or something lmao
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby SRQCub » Wed May 11, 2016 1:08 am

Gmoney08 wrote:
David wrote:
Gmoney08 wrote:One thing I noticed with all this RD talk is that the truely elite RD teams seems to win the Word Series a lot and dedinitely make the WS a lot.

So we can definitely make ourselves a significant favorite and up to maybe mid 20% chance compared to most #1 seeds. But, still the field had the odds over 1 dominant team.

Most of those teams were pre-playoffs. All you had to do was be the best in the league to make the world series. That's something the elite RD teams were very likely to do.


Valid points.

How have the elite RD teams of the playoffs era performed?


This link gives some good insights into elite RD:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1781 ... ory/page/3
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby badger » Wed May 11, 2016 3:32 am

I refuse to believe bleacher report offers any good insights into, well, anything.
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby cwood218 » Wed May 11, 2016 9:54 am

YES

Assume:
The Cubs are this good.
Finish with the best record.
Face the wildcard winner in a best of 5.

A.)
1.) Mets beat Pirates
2.) Mets pitching could lead the way to 3 wins in a five game series.

B.)
1.) Nationals beat Pirates
2.) Strasburgh/Scherzer pitch 3 games,
This one may be more far fetched. First Scherzer must turn it around. Second one or two of the other 3 starters may have to pitch the game of
their lives. Also Strasburgh/Scherzer may tire by the end of the season after Dusty has them both break the single season IP record.

C.)
1.) Cardinals beat Pirates
2.) Wacha/Garcia/Martinez are healthy and pitching well, Wainwright channels his inner Jack Morris on the Cubs in game 5.

D.)
1.) Giants beat Pirates
2.) Bumgarner/Cueto match Jake/Jon and Samardzija beats Lackey. The Giants trade for a starter that beats Hammel. Its an even year blah blah..

E.)
1.) Dodgers beat Pirates
2.) Kershaw/Maeda pitch 3 games, or someone else pitches the game of their life.

F.)
1.) Pirates beat Pirates (Split Squad Wildcard Game)
2.) All Pirate batters choose "We Are Family" as their walk up music this traumatizes all Cubs pitchers.
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby SRQCub » Wed May 11, 2016 1:28 pm

badger wrote:I refuse to believe bleacher report offers any good insights into, well, anything.


Well, then that's on you.

You can miss the forest for the trees (I.E, getting hung up on their ranking of the Top 25 teams in history), or you can look at elite Run Differentials and Playoff outcomes.
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby SRQCub » Wed May 11, 2016 1:30 pm

cwood218 wrote:YES

Assume:
The Cubs are this good.
Finish with the best record.
Face the wildcard winner in a best of 5.

A.)
1.) Mets beat Pirates
2.) Mets pitching could lead the way to 3 wins in a five game series.

B.)
1.) Nationals beat Pirates
2.) Strasburgh/Scherzer pitch 3 games,
This one may be more far fetched. First Scherzer must turn it around. Second one or two of the other 3 starters may have to pitch the game of
their lives. Also Strasburgh/Scherzer may tire by the end of the season after Dusty has them both break the single season IP record.

C.)
1.) Cardinals beat Pirates
2.) Wacha/Garcia/Martinez are healthy and pitching well, Wainwright channels his inner Jack Morris on the Cubs in game 5.

D.)
1.) Giants beat Pirates
2.) Bumgarner/Cueto match Jake/Jon and Samardzija beats Lackey. The Giants trade for a starter that beats Hammel. Its an even year blah blah..

E.)
1.) Dodgers beat Pirates
2.) Kershaw/Maeda pitch 3 games, or someone else pitches the game of their life.

F.)
1.) Pirates beat Pirates (Split Squad Wildcard Game)
2.) All Pirate batters choose "We Are Family" as their walk up music this traumatizes all Cubs pitchers.


So, throwing someone better than Lackey in the playoffs would serve us well?
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed May 11, 2016 1:47 pm

SRQCub wrote:
badger wrote:I refuse to believe bleacher report offers any good insights into, well, anything.


Well, then that's on you.

You can miss the forest for the trees (I.E, getting hung up on their ranking of the Top 25 teams in history), or you can look at elite Run Differentials and Playoff outcomes.

bleacher report is more of a swamp than forest
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby BigSlick » Wed May 11, 2016 3:56 pm

You don't even need to throw up elite pitchers against us or whatever, you could even start 3 of the worst starters in the league and there's like a decent chance you lose

This team lost a series to the Rockies, at home. It happens, its baseball
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Re: Are the playoffs still a crapshoot when you're THIS good?

Postby BigSlick » Thu May 12, 2016 3:44 pm

Yesterday should be proof on how random and crapshooty the playoffs are.

Now, imagine yesterday, multiplied three times across the NLDS, NLCS and World Series. That's why you can't get higher than like, 25% to win.
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