Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Cease in MLB in 2019 is like the < 1% best case scenario, the odds have him getting through 4 levels in less than 3 years are extremely low.
I agree that the chances of him reaching the bigs at some point in 2019 are low. When you consider that he could come up as a reliever, I don't know if it's a less than 1% chance, but it's certainly less than a 50/50 proposition.
The main hurdle for me is health. It's a big question mark for every pitcher and especially so for one who's already had TJS. The lesser hurdle is performance. His control/command needs to stay on the trajectory of improvement it's currently on, and he needs to continue to develop FB command and his secondaries (curve and change up). But he's certainly got the talent to move quickly.
So, best case scenario, IF he performs well at each level (not that unlikely) AND stays healthy (a little more unlikely), I don't think his lack of innings will hold him back. Cease pitched 67.2 IP between extended spring and Eugene last year. Assuming no time missed and above average to dominant performance, he could hit 100 innings this year, 130+ in 2018 and 160+ in 2019. If he does stay healthy and performs well, he could easily move through 4 minor league levels within 3 seasons. Heck, if he's dominant enough (and stays healthy), he could reach AAA in the 2nd half of next year.
There's no way he'd have the innings built up to be a full time rotation piece by 2019, but starting out in the pen, being stretched out and joining the rotation in the 2nd half of 2019 wouldn't be out of the question if his innings limit is around 160.
If he keeps being shut down here and there and doesn't pitch over 80 innings this year, the chances of him moving to the pen get a lot greater. But if he's highly effective while healthy, being a reliever could still get him to the bigs by 2019.