2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP, ESPN, MLB Pipeline)

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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:14 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BP's Top 100 is out: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... y-jimenez/

Adbert Alzolay is the only Cub, coming in at 95.

Gleyber is 3, Eloy 6, Cease 47.


Here's what BP wrote on Alzolay in their top 100 list:

Alzolay has a starter’s delivery in a reliever’s body with a change-up that could push him to either role. Currently, the pitch is not playable to turn over MLB rotations, but he could right now get outs from a bullpen with his FB/SL combination, playing to higher end of velo band in short stints. The relative quietness of his delivery given his size, a result of plus athleticism and a strong lower half that stabilizes his delivery. I project change up and command improvement enough to keep Alzolay in an MLB rotation.
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Re: BA's Top 10 Cubs Prospects

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:04 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Cubs Top 10 Prospects
1. Aramis Ademan, SS
2. Adbert Alzolay, RHP
3. Jose Albertos, RHP
4. Victor Caratini, C
5. Alex Lange, RHP
6. Oscar De La Cruz, RHP
7. Brendon Little, LHP
8. Thomas Hatch, RHP
9. Jen-Ho Tseng, RHP
10. Nelson Velazquez, OF


I got my BA Prospect Handbook yesterday. Here is 11-31:

11. DJ Wilson, OF
12. David Bote, 2B/3B
13. Bryan Hudson, LHP
14. Keegan Thompson, RHP
15. Dillon Maples, RHP
16. Cory Abbott, RHP
17. Trevor Clifton, RHP
18. Justin Steele, LHP
19. Duane Underwood, RHP
20. Mark Zagunis, OF
21. Dakota Mekkes, RHP
22. Miguel Amaya, C
23. Javier Assad, RHP
24. Charcer Burks, OF
25. Jason Vosler, 3B
26. Michael Rucker, RHP
27. Erich Uelman, RHP
28. Alec Mills, RHP
29. Jonathan Sierra, OF
30. Jake Stinnett, RHP
31. Manuel Rondon, LHP

Most surprising omission for me is Jeremiah Estrada.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby Tim » Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:23 pm

Does Rucker roll the ball to the plate or something?
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Re: BA's Top 10 Cubs Prospects

Postby Hrubes20 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:24 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Cubs Top 10 Prospects
1. Aramis Ademan, SS
2. Adbert Alzolay, RHP
3. Jose Albertos, RHP
4. Victor Caratini, C
5. Alex Lange, RHP
6. Oscar De La Cruz, RHP
7. Brendon Little, LHP
8. Thomas Hatch, RHP
9. Jen-Ho Tseng, RHP
10. Nelson Velazquez, OF


I got my BA Prospect Handbook yesterday. Here is 11-31:

11. DJ Wilson, OF
12. David Bote, 2B/3B
13. Bryan Hudson, LHP
14. Keegan Thompson, RHP
15. Dillon Maples, RHP
16. Cory Abbott, RHP
17. Trevor Clifton, RHP
18. Justin Steele, LHP
19. Duane Underwood, RHP
20. Mark Zagunis, OF
21. Dakota Mekkes, RHP
22. Miguel Amaya, C
23. Javier Assad, RHP
24. Charcer Burks, OF
25. Jason Vosler, 3B
26. Michael Rucker, RHP
27. Erich Uelman, RHP
28. Alec Mills, RHP
29. Jonathan Sierra, OF
30. Jake Stinnett, RHP
31. Manuel Rondon, LHP

Most surprising omission for me is Jeremiah Estrada.


BA has REALLY gone downhill.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby David » Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:46 pm

I thought ademan was a pitcher for a long time
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:18 pm

David wrote:I thought ademan was a pitcher for a long time


I still get him mixed up with the other guy we also got in the supplemental first round in 2012.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby Regular Show » Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:30 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
David wrote:I thought ademan was a pitcher for a long time


I still get him mixed up with the other guy we also got in the supplemental first round in 2012.


Paul Blackburn? What? That guy? :-k
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby craig » Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:33 pm

Tim wrote:Does Rucker roll the ball to the plate or something?


BA book lists him as a reliever, said he got up to 94-96 in relief, but was 90-93 in rotation. Doesn't scout any of his offspeed pitches as more than average if that. So, they basically view him as a guy with no good-stuff pitches in rotation, and just the fastball in relief. Basically a no-stuff command guy.

Doesn't seem that different a scouting report from what other media guys give.

BA may be right, and none of the other scouting writeups seems to like is stuff very well either.

Still, kind of a puzzle how he can be whiffing guys all the time without actually having any good pitches?

He averaged over a K-per-inning, so it would seem that even if none of his stuff seems particularly sharp, that somehow A-ball hitters still miss it a lot. Perhaps it's just a testament to the value of command; if you're getting ahead 1-2 on three guys per inning, and you throw so many fastball strikes that guys are expecting a strike, maybe you don't need anything sharp to still be getting some A-ballers to chase and whiff. Or, maybe there's something in the delivery that's deceptive, so guys can't easily distinguish a so-so curve from a fastball, and end up K-ing even thought the curve doesn't have much spin rate or anything?

It's just weird.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby squally1313 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:46 pm

Regular Show wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
David wrote:I thought ademan was a pitcher for a long time


I still get him mixed up with the other guy we also got in the supplemental first round in 2012.


Paul Blackburn? What? That guy? :-k


Fun fact, Zips has Paul Blackburn, yes, that guy, as being more valuable (1.2 WAR in 138 IP) than both the Brewers fourth (Gallardo, 0.7/122) and fifth (Guerra, 0.4/99) projected starters.

But yes, the rebuilding is over.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby Regular Show » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:46 am

squally1313 wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
I still get him mixed up with the other guy we also got in the supplemental first round in 2012.


Paul Blackburn? What? That guy? :-k


Fun fact, Zips has Paul Blackburn, yes, that guy, as being more valuable (1.2 WAR in 138 IP) than both the Brewers fourth (Gallardo, 0.7/122) and fifth (Guerra, 0.4/99) projected starters.

But yes, the rebuilding is over.


Lol, I'll take that bet. Blackburn was a pretty mediocre pitching prospect, and I doubt he improves at the big league level. I'm NOT high on this worn down version of Gallardo obviously, but I like Guerra. We're talking about Junior Guerra right? He was really good in 2016, and I'm not sure what happened to him last year. Seems like he was injured most of 2017, but IF he's healthy I would take him over Blackburn all day.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby squally1313 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:55 am

Regular Show wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
Paul Blackburn? What? That guy? :-k


Fun fact, Zips has Paul Blackburn, yes, that guy, as being more valuable (1.2 WAR in 138 IP) than both the Brewers fourth (Gallardo, 0.7/122) and fifth (Guerra, 0.4/99) projected starters.

But yes, the rebuilding is over.


Lol, I'll take that bet. Blackburn was a pretty mediocre pitching prospect, and I doubt he improves at the big league level. I'm NOT high on this worn down version of Gallardo obviously, but I like Guerra. We're talking about Junior Guerra right? He was really good in 2016, and I'm not sure what happened to him last year. Seems like he was injured most of 2017, but IF he's healthy I would take him over Blackburn all day.


Haha that was definitely meant more as a shot to the Brewers (and surprise at the Blackburn projections). But worth noting Blackburn put up a (seemingly lucky) 3.22 ERA in ten starts this year. Zips seems to like his control and GB rate, despite his horrid K rates.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:56 am

fun fact: Junior Guerra is more than a year older than Yovani Gallardo
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby Regular Show » Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:01 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:fun fact: Junior Guerra is more than a year older than Yovani Gallardo


I know. I saw that. I think he's a late bloomer, like a really late bloomer. Gallardo is done being an effective starting pitcher. I don't think that's the case for Guerra. What injuries did he have last year?
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby ddwyer » Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:12 pm

I believe that Guerra hurt his calf muscle in his first start and he did not do much after that. Even when the Brewers were begging for starters at the end of the year, Guerra did not start.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:15 pm

MLB Pipeline Cubs Top 30 (Callis/Mayo) is out: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=chc

1. Adbert Alzolay
2. Aramis Ademan
3. Oscar de la Cruz
4. José Albertos
5. Alex Lange
6. Brendon Little
6. Thomas Hatch
8. Victor Caratini
9. DJ Wilson
10. Nelson Velazquez
11. Miguel Amaya
12. Jen-Ho Tseng
13. Dillon Maples
14. Mark Zagunis
15. David Bote
16. Justin Steele
17. Jeremia Estrada
18. Erich Uelmen
19. Keegan Thompson
20. Erling Moreno
21. Michael Rucker
22. Alec Mills
23. Zack Short
24. Javier Assad
25. Bryan Hudson
26. Wladimir Galindo
27. Brailyn Marquez
28. Trevor Clifton
29. Cory Abbott
30. Duane Underwood

Write-up for each prospect in the link.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:25 pm

I'm gonna have to start keeping a list of the players that are inexplicably ranked in front of Rucker. Erling Moreno? Erling '64 IP in 14 injury-plagued and walk-filled starts' Moreno?
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby davell » Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:25 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I'm gonna have to start keeping a list of the players that are inexplicably ranked in front of Rucker. Erling Moreno? Erling '64 IP in 14 injury-plagued and walk-filled starts' Moreno?


Eh, there's some upside there. He's obviously ridiculously unlikely to ever see it. He's been hurt a bunch. But, if the reports Arguello heard early last year were true(hitting upper 90s), he's far from the guy I'd bring up as to why he's ahead of Rucker.(Who is top 15, maybe top 10 for me, by the way)

Bote, Uelmen, Thompson, even Steele(since he's out with TJS) are more head scratching to me...

In the end, it turns into scouting versus stats and which one you prefer. I look at both. But, if the guy is a scouty type that's doing the write ups, then Moreno over Rucker is understandable.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:25 pm

MLB Pipeline wrote:Biggest jump/fall
Here are the players whose ranks changed the most from the 2017 preseason list to the 2018 preseason list.

Jump: Adbert Alzolay, RHP (2017: NR | 2018: 1)
Fall: Trevor Clifton, RHP (2017: 8 | 2018: 28)

Best tools

Hit: 55 -- Victor Caratini (Aramis Ademan, Mark Zagunis)
Power: 55 -- Nelson Velazquez
Run: 65 -- D.J. Wilson
Arm: 55 -- Miguel Amaya (Aramis Ademan, Wladimir Galindo, Zack Short, Nelson Velazquez)
Defense: 60 -- Miguel Amaya
Fastball: 75 -- Dillon Maples
Curveball: 65 -- Alex Lange
Slider: 65 -- Dillon Maples
Changeup: 65 -- Jose Albertos
Control: 55 -- Michael Rucker (Adbert Alzolay, Oscar de la Cruz, Alec Mills, Keegan Thompson, Jen-Ho Tseng, Erich Uelmen)
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:50 am

From the MLB Pipeline write-ups:

Little:

He rarely used his changeup as an amateur, so Chicago had him focus on it during his introduction to pro ball, which partially explains his 9.21 ERA in his debut.

The Cubs see considerable promise in Little's changeup and see him developing into a starter with three quality pitches.


Steele:

He did a better job of commanding his fastball, which ranges from 91-97 mph with groundout-inducing sink. He got more consistent depth and missed more bats with his curveball, and he also showed more trust in his changeup.

Steele also made progress with his control and command, though both need further improvement.


Estrada:

In his brief pro debut, Estrada showed the 92-96 mph fastball that excited scouts the previous summer, not the reduced 88-92 mph heater he had during the spring. He also reclaimed a changeup that shows flashes of becoming a plus pitch.


Short:

While he's just 5-foot-10 and 175 pounds, Short has quick hands and makes repeated hard contact, giving him the ability to produce 12-15 homers on an annual basis.

The Cubs believe he's a legitimate shortstop and also have played him at third base and second base. There's no reason he couldn't handle some outfield duty as well, which could make for a very interesting utilityman package.


Galindo:

Despite his below-average speed, Galindo moves OK at third base and has the requisite strong arm for the position. Footwork issues and throwing inaccuracies led to 59 errors in his first 146 pro games at the hot corner, however. He could be destined for first base and may be able to handle left field.


Marquez:

Marquez pitched with a 91-93 mph fastball and touched 95 last season as an 18-year-old and should continue to add velocity as he gets stronger. He also has the makings of at least an average curveball, though it's still inconsistent. His changeup is in the rudimentary stages.


Clifton:

Last year, he lost weight and his stuff regressed, with his fastball dropping into the upper 80s and his curveball deserting him. He tried to rely more on a slurvy slider without success and his changeup also lacked effectiveness.

He moved near the Cubs' training base in Arizona so he could better prepare for 2018.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:03 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I'm gonna have to start keeping a list of the players that are inexplicably ranked in front of Rucker. Erling Moreno? Erling '64 IP in 14 injury-plagued and walk-filled starts' Moreno?


I'm not shocked Callis and Keith Law both like Moreno one spot more, despite the injuries. Moreno has a mid-90s sinking fastball with the groundball rate to back it up while being 2 years younger and only 1 level lower than the un-sexy command-over-stuff Rucker.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby Post Count Padder » Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:23 am

No Mekkes?

And it's still crazy to see Underwood and Galindo on this list. Feels like they've been in the system forever. Probably says more about the system than it does about them.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:52 am

Post Count Padder wrote:No Mekkes?

And it's still crazy to see Underwood and Galindo on this list. Feels like they've been in the system forever. Probably says more about the system than it does about them.


Galindo will be 21 all this coming season and was in the same IFA class as Gleyber Torres, Eloy Jimenez and Jen-Ho Tseng who are all still prospects. Doesn't seem crazy for a kid who signed at 16. Alzolay and de la Cruz have actually been in the system a year longer.
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP)

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:31 am

Gotta go with TT on the Rucker/Moreno thing. Skillwise Rucker's game is the more or less the same as Alzolay's, most of the pitchers in between them have barely pitched and come pre-injured.

Pipeline says Hudson hit 94 last year. He did that plus threw 124.2 innings without blowing out his arm and can spin a good curveball at his best. Maybe there is room for probably temporary optimism. He and Brailyn Marquez are too friendly with the HRs.

How many of these guys make next year's top 30? Maybe fewer than half
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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP, ESPN, MLB Pipeline)

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:51 am

Callis answered a few Cubs-related questions on Twitter today:















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Re: 2017 Post-Season Prospect Rankings (BA, Fangraphs, BP, ESPN, MLB Pipeline)

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:40 pm

So I averaged the rankings of all Cubs prospects who made all of BA, Fangraphs, BP, Keith Law and MLB Pipeline's lists. Only 15 prospects made all 5 listss (David Bote and Jeremiah Estrada each missed on only one list):

  1. 1.6 (tie) Adbert Alzolay
  2. 1.6 (tie) Aramis Ademan
  3. 3.0 Jose Albertos
  4. 5.2 Brendon Little
  5. 5.4 Oscar de la Cruz
  6. 5.6 Alex Lange
  7. 6.6 Victor Caratini
  8. 7.8 Thomas Hatch
  9. 12.8 Nelson Velazquez
  10. 13.4 DJ Wilson
  11. 13.8 (tie) Dillon Maples
  12. 13.8 (tie) Jen-Ho Tseng
  13. 14.8 Miguel Amaya
  14. 18.4 Alec Mills
  15. 18.6 Mark Zagunis
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