International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:27 am

davell wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:
davell wrote:In Kiley's chat today, he listed Gallardo as the 2nd best pitcher there. Said there were a few guys not there, but no idea if he meant pitchers. He did say that the group he listed were all signing for at least 500k and some of them were getting over 2 mill.

Connecting the dots.....If Gallardo is the 2nd best(behind Rodriguez) and multiples of the 5 he listed were getting over 2 mill, we're probably giving him over 2 mill......

And considering Rodriguez is evidently an immediate top 100 prospect, according to some.....We're not likely able to nab him too. Unless we trade for quite a bit of IFA money.....


I wouldn't make that leap. Pitchers don't generally get as much as the hitters do in IFA. Actually, I'm struggling to think of the last pitcher to get $2 million in IFA. Did Espinoza get that from Boston, or did either of those 2 Rays pitchers get it when they went over their spending budget? But we see $2-3 million dollar position players every year.

I wouldn't be shocked to see that he signed for $1 million.


Ah, when I skimmed thru, I didn't notice he had just also posted the 5 best hitters. That definitely changes things, as his comment wasn't necessarily meant for the pitchers.

I agree that they don't typically get as much. And I'd amend my initial thinking on Gallardo. I'd still bet Rodriguez gets well over that though. Every team has at least 4.75 mill now to spend. I'd guess the players see their bonuses go up a bit anyway, just because of that.


FYI, I don't think anyone who gets paid to do this has said Rodriguez is a top 100 prospect. I surmised as much just reading the glowing write-ups for him. At the end of the day, he's a 16-year old pitcher, so immediately being a top 100 prospect will be tough. That said, he is the best pitching prospect in this class and showed up late, so I think he'll easily clear $2 million.

I've added the the teams linked to these guys. No idea on Azuaje, the Cuban pitchers or Rosario. Looks like Calzadilla is linked to the Diamondbacks.

12:49
Kiley McDaniel: Those hitters:
Diego Cartaya, C, VZ Dodgers
Noelvi Marte, SS, DR Mariners
Marco Luciano, SS, DR Giants
Orelvis Martinez, SS, DR Blue Jays, likely the biggest non-Cuban bonus
there’s a bunch of candidates for the 5th spot, but I’ll go with the guy that ran a 6.37 in the 60: Alexeis Azuaje, SS, DR
12:50
Kiley McDaniel: Best Arms:
Osiel Rodriguez, RHP, Cuba
Richard Gallardo, RHP, VZ Cubs
Sandy Gaston, RHP, Cuba
Abraham Calzadilla, RHP, VZ Diamondbacks
you can either take projection with Jerming Rosario, RHP, DR or now velo with Starlyn Castillo, RHP, DR Phillies
12:51
Kiley McDaniel: I would assume/already know all of those players get $500K on July 2nd or soon thereafter
12:51
Kiley McDaniel: and there’s more than a couple millionaires in there, probably a few over $2M. A couple top guys weren’t at the event, but not that many.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Mar 01, 2018 5:26 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
davell wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:
I wouldn't make that leap. Pitchers don't generally get as much as the hitters do in IFA. Actually, I'm struggling to think of the last pitcher to get $2 million in IFA. Did Espinoza get that from Boston, or did either of those 2 Rays pitchers get it when they went over their spending budget? But we see $2-3 million dollar position players every year.

I wouldn't be shocked to see that he signed for $1 million.


Ah, when I skimmed thru, I didn't notice he had just also posted the 5 best hitters. That definitely changes things, as his comment wasn't necessarily meant for the pitchers.

I agree that they don't typically get as much. And I'd amend my initial thinking on Gallardo. I'd still bet Rodriguez gets well over that though. Every team has at least 4.75 mill now to spend. I'd guess the players see their bonuses go up a bit anyway, just because of that.


FYI, I don't think anyone who gets paid to do this has said Rodriguez is a top 100 prospect. I surmised as much just reading the glowing write-ups for him. At the end of the day, he's a 16-year old pitcher, so immediately being a top 100 prospect will be tough. That said, he is the best pitching prospect in this class and showed up late, so I think he'll easily clear $2 million.

I've added the the teams linked to these guys. No idea on Azuaje, the Cuban pitchers or Rosario. Looks like Calzadilla is linked to the Diamondbacks.

12:49
Kiley McDaniel: Those hitters:
Diego Cartaya, C, VZ Dodgers
Noelvi Marte, SS, DR Mariners
Marco Luciano, SS, DR Giants
Orelvis Martinez, SS, DR Blue Jays, likely the biggest non-Cuban bonus
there’s a bunch of candidates for the 5th spot, but I’ll go with the guy that ran a 6.37 in the 60: Alexeis Azuaje, SS, DR
12:50
Kiley McDaniel: Best Arms:
Osiel Rodriguez, RHP, Cuba
Richard Gallardo, RHP, VZ Cubs
Sandy Gaston, RHP, Cuba
Abraham Calzadilla, RHP, VZ Diamondbacks
you can either take projection with Jerming Rosario, RHP, DR or now velo with Starlyn Castillo, RHP, DR Phillies
12:51
Kiley McDaniel: I would assume/already know all of those players get $500K on July 2nd or soon thereafter
12:51
Kiley McDaniel: and there’s more than a couple millionaires in there, probably a few over $2M. A couple top guys weren’t at the event, but not that many.


Alexeis Azuaje is connected to the Phillies.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby davell » Fri Mar 02, 2018 6:20 pm

Raisin, anything of note in the new Badler article?
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:00 pm

davell wrote:Raisin, anything of note in the new Badler article?


No new players were linked to the Cubs in either his shortstop article or his pitcher article. That said, some of the players he mentioned weren't linked to any teams:

Osiel Rodriguez, RHP, Cuba
Sandy Gaston, RHP, Cuba - possibly could sign with the Marlins but not linked to any teams
Jerming Rosario, RHP, Dominican Republic
Rainer Polonius, SS, Curacao
Ryson Polonius, SS, Curacao

Badler said Osiel Rodriguez and Richard Gallardo (the pitcher linked to the Cubs) were the most impressive pitchers at the MLB Showcase last week. Annoyingly, Badler mentioned bonus amounts for many of the pitchers in his article but not Gallardo. Only one pitcher Badler mentioned is currently expected to get a 7-figure bonus (Dominican RHP Starlyn Castillo to the Phillies).
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby davell » Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:06 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
davell wrote:Raisin, anything of note in the new Badler article?


No new players were linked to the Cubs in either his shortstop article or his pitcher article. That said, some of the players he mentioned weren't linked to any teams:

Osiel Rodriguez, RHP, Cuba
Sandy Gaston, RHP, Cuba - possibly could sign with the Marlins but not linked to any teams
Jerming Rosario, RHP, Dominican Republic
Rainer Polonius, SS, Curacao
Ryson Polonius, SS, Curacao

Badler said Osiel Rodriguez and Richard Gallardo (the pitcher linked to the Cubs) were the most impressive pitchers at the MLB Showcase last week. Annoyingly, Badler mentioned bonus amounts for many of the pitchers in his article but not Gallardo. Only one pitcher Badler mentioned is currently expected to get a 7-figure bonus (Dominican RHP Starlyn Castillo to the Phillies).


Thanks man. We've got the SS and Gallardo as the only names known at this point. I'd love to see us add one other big bonus pitcher and spend the rest on hitting(if there's anything left)
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:44 pm

davell wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
davell wrote:Raisin, anything of note in the new Badler article?


No new players were linked to the Cubs in either his shortstop article or his pitcher article. That said, some of the players he mentioned weren't linked to any teams:

Osiel Rodriguez, RHP, Cuba
Sandy Gaston, RHP, Cuba - possibly could sign with the Marlins but not linked to any teams
Jerming Rosario, RHP, Dominican Republic
Rainer Polonius, SS, Curacao
Ryson Polonius, SS, Curacao

Badler said Osiel Rodriguez and Richard Gallardo (the pitcher linked to the Cubs) were the most impressive pitchers at the MLB Showcase last week. Annoyingly, Badler mentioned bonus amounts for many of the pitchers in his article but not Gallardo. Only one pitcher Badler mentioned is currently expected to get a 7-figure bonus (Dominican RHP Starlyn Castillo to the Phillies).


Thanks man. We've got the SS and Gallardo as the only names known at this point. I'd love to see us add one other big bonus pitcher and spend the rest on hitting(if there's anything left)


If I had to guess, they probably have about $2 million tied up with Gallardo and the SS Rafael Morel.

With the hard IFA caps in the new CBA, it's tougher to sign multiple top IFAs so it would be a pleasant surprise if they could still get Osiel Rodriguez and end up signing the top two pitchers in this class. You get the top two pitchers in the class and you have a better chance that one will be a healthy top 100 prospect by AA ball. That said, I'm guessing they're already linked to a few mid-6 figure guys and might not have enough money for a guy like Rodriguez who basically is a pop up guy.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby davell » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:23 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
davell wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
No new players were linked to the Cubs in either his shortstop article or his pitcher article. That said, some of the players he mentioned weren't linked to any teams:

Osiel Rodriguez, RHP, Cuba
Sandy Gaston, RHP, Cuba - possibly could sign with the Marlins but not linked to any teams
Jerming Rosario, RHP, Dominican Republic
Rainer Polonius, SS, Curacao
Ryson Polonius, SS, Curacao

Badler said Osiel Rodriguez and Richard Gallardo (the pitcher linked to the Cubs) were the most impressive pitchers at the MLB Showcase last week. Annoyingly, Badler mentioned bonus amounts for many of the pitchers in his article but not Gallardo. Only one pitcher Badler mentioned is currently expected to get a 7-figure bonus (Dominican RHP Starlyn Castillo to the Phillies).


Thanks man. We've got the SS and Gallardo as the only names known at this point. I'd love to see us add one other big bonus pitcher and spend the rest on hitting(if there's anything left)


If I had to guess, they probably have about $2 million tied up with Gallardo and the SS Rafael Morel.

With the hard IFA caps in the new CBA, it's tougher to sign multiple top IFAs so it would be a pleasant surprise if they could still get Osiel Rodriguez and end up signing the top two pitchers in this class. You get the top two pitchers in the class and you have a better chance that one will be a healthy top 100 prospect by AA ball. That said, I'm guessing they're already linked to a few mid-6 figure guys and might not have enough money for a guy like Rodriguez who basically is a pop up guy.


I'm thinking more along the lines of trading for extra IFA money. Now that you can't go over, but can buy 75% more(if you can find it), its the best way to rebuild the system quickly. Especially since you can do this every year. You've got to do it for smaller increments at a time, but there's always teams out there with 300-500k left over. And Baltimore with all of theirs lol. I'm hopeful we take advantage of this, since the acquisition cost of 500k or under in IFA money is small.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:24 am

Mmmm:

http://www.startribune.com/mlb-insider- ... 444896483/

“Teams are agreeing with players for 2020 now, that’s how far out it is,” Radcliff said. “Almost all of the best guys for next [July] are locked up already and off the market. And since everybody wants a [top player], to assure you get one, you have to move on to the next year, and the next one.”
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:18 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Mmmm:

http://www.startribune.com/mlb-insider- ... 444896483/

“Teams are agreeing with players for 2020 now, that’s how far out it is,” Radcliff said. “Almost all of the best guys for next [July] are locked up already and off the market. And since everybody wants a [top player], to assure you get one, you have to move on to the next year, and the next one.”


Badler had basically the same article a year ago.

The thought of scouting 12-year olds feels icky.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby weis21 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:47 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:Mmmm:

http://www.startribune.com/mlb-insider- ... 444896483/

“Teams are agreeing with players for 2020 now, that’s how far out it is,” Radcliff said. “Almost all of the best guys for next [July] are locked up already and off the market. And since everybody wants a [top player], to assure you get one, you have to move on to the next year, and the next one.”


Badler had basically the same article a year ago.

The thought of scouting 12-year olds feels icky.


Ha! I said this to my girl friend this morning almost verbatim when i was checking up on this thread. I said it just makes me cringe and seems weird
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby Regular Show » Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:36 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:Mmmm:

http://www.startribune.com/mlb-insider- ... 444896483/

“Teams are agreeing with players for 2020 now, that’s how far out it is,” Radcliff said. “Almost all of the best guys for next [July] are locked up already and off the market. And since everybody wants a [top player], to assure you get one, you have to move on to the next year, and the next one.”


Badler had basically the same article a year ago.

The thought of scouting 12-year olds feels icky.


How the hell do you scout a 12 year old prospect? That's insane. You can't be that successful at figuring out which prospects will pan out and develop at that age.

Obviously, it looks bad and feels wrong, but it also feels stupid and foolish at the same time.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CubsWin » Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:48 pm

Regular Show wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:


Badler had basically the same article a year ago.

The thought of scouting 12-year olds feels icky.


How the hell do you scout a 12 year old prospect? That's insane. You can't be that successful at figuring out which prospects will pan out and develop at that age.

Obviously, it looks bad and feels wrong, but it also feels stupid and foolish at the same time.

Don't get me wrong, this system where teams are having to scout younger and younger players to get handshake deals on kids that could be top prospects is weird and unfortunate, but where did the specific number of 12 years old come from? The article only went to 13 (not that that's any better) and math suggests that if they're looking for kids who will be eligible 2 years from now, they couldn't be any younger than 13 now. I'm truly asking, how did 12 come into this conversation?
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby Regular Show » Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:37 pm

CubsWin wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Badler had basically the same article a year ago.

The thought of scouting 12-year olds feels icky.


How the hell do you scout a 12 year old prospect? That's insane. You can't be that successful at figuring out which prospects will pan out and develop at that age.

Obviously, it looks bad and feels wrong, but it also feels stupid and foolish at the same time.

Don't get me wrong, this system where teams are having to scout younger and younger players to get handshake deals on kids that could be top prospects is weird and unfortunate, but where did the specific number of 12 years old come from? The article only went to 13 (not that that's any better) and math suggests that if they're looking for kids who will be eligible 2 years from now, they couldn't be any younger than 13 now. I'm truly asking, how did 12 come into this conversation?


Raisin mentioned how icky it feels scouting 12-year old kids, and I've heard or read in other articles that some teams start scouting at that age. They come to agreements probably when they are 13 or 14, but they start scouting them way in advance of their signing year.

I mean it feels wrong either way like you said.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CubsWin » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:13 am

Regular Show wrote:
CubsWin wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
How the hell do you scout a 12 year old prospect? That's insane. You can't be that successful at figuring out which prospects will pan out and develop at that age.

Obviously, it looks bad and feels wrong, but it also feels stupid and foolish at the same time.

Don't get me wrong, this system where teams are having to scout younger and younger players to get handshake deals on kids that could be top prospects is weird and unfortunate, but where did the specific number of 12 years old come from? The article only went to 13 (not that that's any better) and math suggests that if they're looking for kids who will be eligible 2 years from now, they couldn't be any younger than 13 now. I'm truly asking, how did 12 come into this conversation?


Raisin mentioned how icky it feels scouting 12-year old kids, and I've heard or read in other articles that some teams start scouting at that age. They come to agreements probably when they are 13 or 14, but they start scouting them way in advance of their signing year.

I mean it feels wrong either way like you said.

And foolish like you said. It's got to be incredibly difficult to project a 12-year-old accurately. I mean, I guess if things take a turn for the worse with that PRE-TEEN (!!) the team he's committed to could always back out or drop their bonus offer, but still...
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby davell » Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:04 am

Raisin, was there anything of note in Badler's new piece today? Evidently we're connected to an OF now?
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:54 am

davell wrote:Raisin, was there anything of note in Badler's new piece today? Evidently we're connected to an OF now?


The Cubs are linked to Dominican CF Jose Lopez. 5’10”, athletic, plus speed, strong arm and an above average tools with an unorthodox swing. He’s expected to get a bonus “north of $1 million.”
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:21 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
davell wrote:Raisin, was there anything of note in Badler's new piece today? Evidently we're connected to an OF now?


The Cubs are linked to Dominican CF Jose Lopez. 5’10”, athletic, plus speed, strong arm and an above average tools with an unorthodox swing. He’s expected to get a bonus “north of $1 million.”


What specifically is unorthodox about it, or did they even mention it?

A 7 figure deal with this guy really takes a bit out of the available money.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CubsWin » Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:42 am

Hrubes20 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
davell wrote:Raisin, was there anything of note in Badler's new piece today? Evidently we're connected to an OF now?


The Cubs are linked to Dominican CF Jose Lopez. 5’10”, athletic, plus speed, strong arm and an above average tools with an unorthodox swing. He’s expected to get a bonus “north of $1 million.”


What specifically is unorthodox about it, or did they even mention it?

A 7 figure deal with this guy really takes a bit out of the available money.

You could call it a hitch, but he sort of extra loads his bat by raising his hands as the pitch is coming in. It's likely a timing mechanism for him, but as he faces higher velocities, it could cause him to be late. If he needs to make an adjustment, it doesn't seem like an overly difficult one to make.

https://youtu.be/CfDFOvJMcG8
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CubsWin » Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:52 am

Here's the full game video of Gallardo:

https://youtu.be/TPEh-neoq_c
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:22 am

Not that it matters so much but how big is Gallardo? He looks like a Berrios starter kit with that delivery.

Interesting body type on that OF. I say interesting because it just looks like baby fat to me, something I have no issues with. Doesn't seem the Cubs do either with guys like Velazquez, Albertos, Paredes, Amaya, Assad, Faustino Carrera, Yonathan Perlaza....
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CubsWin » Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:06 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:Not that it matters so much but how big is Gallardo? He looks like a Berrios starter kit with that delivery.

Interesting body type on that OF. I say interesting because it just looks like baby fat to me, something I have no issues with. Doesn't seem the Cubs do either with guys like Velazquez, Albertos, Paredes, Amaya, Assad, Faustino Carrera, Yonathan Perlaza....

Gallardo's 6'1", 187 lbs according to Badler.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CubsWin » Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:09 pm

Does anyone have any insight on how the new IFA bonus rules will likely affect the ability to trade for other team's IFA money?

-Are teams who previously didn't spend a lot on IFAs now more likely to do so?
-With the new hard cap, it seems IFA bonus money becomes all the more valuable. Any idea what type of player/prospect would have to be given up in order to get some?
-Are there any articles out there on this subject? I did a google search but didn't find any...

Here's a recap of the new rules:

Hard spending cap varies by team (All teams start with a $4.75 million cap, but clubs receiving first/second round sandwich “competitive balance” pick will receive an additional $500,000, and clubs receiving 2nd/3rd round sandwich “competitive balance” pick receive an additional $1 million).

Cap dollars tradeable (once signing period opens July 2)

Teams allowed to acquire up to 75 percent* of their cap in additional funds (I.E. a $4.75 million club would be able to acquire an additional $3.56 million for a total of $8.31 million) *This amount will be reduced to 60 percent starting in 2019–2020 period.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby craig » Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:46 pm

Big-market Cubs wanted both Eloy and Gleyber, and could just pay tax.
Cubs spent more on Sierra than on Ademan, Amaya, or Albertos; but they were able to just pay tax and get all four. So nobody could leverage them much to trade for Ademan, Amaya, or Albertos dollars.

I assume the price will be way, way, way higher, now that big-market teams can't overspend. Way higher.

Plus I assume smaller-market teams (with finally a level, fair playing field) will have better reason to sign guys themselves. If you've got a fair chance to get good value by signing guys yourself, why trade your money away?

My guess is that the cost of cap space is going to be really, really high, and it will be very difficult to supplement.

Might be different late in the "year". Maybe some teams will ave some unspent leftover crumbs late that they might be willing to trade?
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:59 pm

We saw some cap space trades during the offseason by teams in the Ohtani hunt and that might be a good indicator since it was blatantly obvious Seattle, Anaheim and Texas valued that cap space for a specific player (which might be the case for teams that have their pool tied up already but are interested in the Cuban defectors who only recently turned up on the market).

It will also be interesting to see how much Atlanta can get for their cap space since it has no value to them while they're penalized.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2018-2019

Postby CubsWin » Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:57 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:We saw some cap space trades during the offseason by teams in the Ohtani hunt and that might be a good indicator since it was blatantly obvious Seattle, Anaheim and Texas valued that cap space for a specific player (which might be the case for teams that have their pool tied up already but are interested in the Cuban defectors who only recently turned up on the market).

It will also be interesting to see how much Atlanta can get for their cap space since it has no value to them while they're penalized.

I wondered about both points. The trades we saw for Ohtani money were done after most teams were done signing guys. I wonder if that made it easier to acquire and thus those trades might not be representative of the market value at the beginning of the signing period?

I know the Braves are limited to signing guys to contracts of no higher than $10,000 in 2019-20 and that their allotment was cut in half in 2020-21. I couldn't find anything on this coming season's penalty beyond the fact that they previously went over the limit and were under the same restrictions the Cubs were the last two years. Do you (or anyone)know how they're specifically restricted this signing period?

I also read that since the Braves can't sign anyone for over $10,000 next period (2019-20), that they basically had their allotment brought down to zero and won't have any bonus money to trade away that year. (Under the current rules, signings under $10,000 don't count towards the total allotment and can be unlimited in number). Is any of that accurate?
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