2018 Mid Season Top 20

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2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Donzo » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:50 am

I got the idea from the game thread from 7/3... I graduated Bote and Caratini, that should be considered when thinking about the overall strength of the system.

1. Azaloy- I think clearly the #1 prospect. Has all the tools to be top of rotation starter and as long as he’s healthy, he could be starting early next
year in the majors if needed.
2. Ademan- A little overmatched the first half in High A, but that’s not a surprise. He needs to do better the 2nd half and is off to a good start.
3. Amaya- The Cubs minor league breakout player the first half of the season. His defense was always there, now his offense is as good as his D.
4. Hoerner- I didn’t love the pick, but the Cubs know how to pick college bats in the 1st round. It’s very early, but he showing everything that he
was advertised to be.
5. Lange- He’s been mostly good, looks like a pro. Besides a great curve, pretty average everywhere else. Don’t know if his ceiling is very high as a
starter.

6. Pereda- Good all around catching prospect, having a solid year… Cubs have become very good at developing catchers.
7. Little- Having a strange year with alternating between god and bad starts. The Cubs are coaching him hard, so inconstancy is OK. His ceiling is
high, could be a good starter or excellent reliever.
8. De La Cruz- Well, I’m not going penalize him too much for the 80-game suspension. He’s big, has plus stuff and had some real good games at AA.
9. Marquez- Big young lefty with excellent stuff. He could be in the top 5 at the end of the year, or off the list.
10. Underwood- Sure looks the part coming off the bus and already had a decent start in the majors. I think fans have been hypercritical of him.
He’s still young enough and has made progress with his issues (K’s and BB’s).

11. Maples- The Cubs Wild Thing. In two years he could be closing in the majors or pitching in the independent leagues. Can say this for him, when
your 100mph 4-seamer is your 2nd best pitch, you’re going to get a lot of chances to prove yourself.
12. Hudson- Another pitcher I think the fans have been hypercritical of. He was a project when drafted and that’s how it’s played out. He’s still
young (he’s younger today than Lange was when the Cubs drafted him last year) and is holding his own in High A. If he still looks like a baby
deer/giraffe at the end of next year rather than a power pitcher, then I’ll put him on the back burner.
13. Zagunis- The guy has a 1.1000 OPS at AAA and will get on base in the majors.
14. Rucker- Has solid stuff and good control. Should have some type of major league career.
15. Mekes- Very interesting prospect. Very dominating in the minors. Will it play out in the majors? I imagine he’ll be pitching for the Cubs in
September and I’m looking forward to watching him. The reports of him hitting 95mph in Iowa are encouraging.

16. Hatch- Has been solid, but K’s are down, BB’s are up and still doesn’t have an out pitch.
17. Short- He’s OK, I don’t think he’s as good as Bote.
18. Clifton- Excellent in AA after an awful year there in 2017. Solid in AAA.
19. Thompson- He’s Lange Jr. and has probably pitched better than Lange since the 2017 draft, he’s already in AA. I think he could be a very good
reliever.
20. Steele- I liked him a lot before TJS. Glad to see he’s pitching already this year.

Going to go with five four more, all young guys. The 2nd round pick from June and the top four three international signings the past two years.
21. Brennen Davis- Big young OF with all the tools. Looking the part early in Arizona, but hasn't played lately.
22. Richard Gallardo- The #1 international pitcher from 2018, #6 overall. He only signed for a $1M bonus, so he wasn’t expensive. Big young lefty
that projects as a power pitcher; gotta like that.
23. Jose Lopez- Ranked as the #17 international al prospects, but signed for $1.5M, the Cubs biggest bonus the past two years. A fast-little CF, only 16.
24.Florencio Serrano- One of two players to sign for $1.2M in 2017, the Cubs biggest bonus. Already hitting 95mph on his fast ball. OOPS!- 8-)
25. Luis Verdugo- The other player to sign for $1.2M in 2017. A SS prospect whose played against older plyers and has done well.
Last edited by Donzo on Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Tim » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:03 am

Good thread and interesting list. I've got a few major differences in my thinking, but I haven't really put together a list yet.


One depressing note from the Athletic article on ODLC's suspension:

Prior to that, he was once again sitting in the mid-90s. But upon his return in the Arizona Fall League, De La Cruz topped out at 92 in his lone outing. During the offseason, he made numerous Cubs top 10 prospect lists, ranking as high as third according to MLB.com and as low as eighth in Baseball Prospectus’ rankings.

When watching him in the backfields this past spring, I noticed that once again, he was struggling to get any higher than 92 on his heater and was mostly sitting below that mark. There was some optimism that he could build his arm strength back up, but it was clear the shine had worn off this once-ascending prospect.


It sure sounds like the explosiveness in his stuff hasn't been there this year. I will probably knock him down pretty far.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Donzo » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:13 am

Thanks, and yeah, I imagine there will be a lot of variety with a top prospect list. I think the top four, in some order, will be very similar. After that, it's pretty subjective.

If De La Cruz is topping out at 92, then that torpedoes his prospect status.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Tim » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:17 am

I'll probably have your top 5 as my top 5, but in a different order.

Amaya is solidly my #1 at this point.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:31 am

Florencio Serrano's contract was voided
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Tim » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:34 am

CyHawk_Cub wrote:Florencio Serrano's contract was voided

"Well scratch him off, then!"
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:38 am

Tim wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:Florencio Serrano's contract was voided

"Well scratch him off, then!"


At least he's not dead.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby PackLandVA » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:49 am

What about Trent Giambrone? He’s getting love in the Minor League Musings forum. Bote 2.0
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Tim » Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:15 am

PackLandVA wrote:What about Trent Giambrone? He’s getting love in the Minor League Musings forum. Bote 2.0

I'd like to see him walk a bit more. And I want to hear more about his defense. But, yeah, he's getting interesting.

Interesting note: After walking at a 13.1% clip in AA to start the year, Vosler has gone 56 PA without a single walk in AAA.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:04 am

It would be fabulous if Zagunis had a 1.100 OPS at AAA but it appears you looked at his MLB line.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CubsWin » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:00 pm

To go 20 deep in this org right now is tough because after the first 5 or so it's anybody's guess really, but I'll give it a go. (No Caratini, Bote, Maples or Zagunis.)

1. Adbert Alzolay
2. Miguel Amaya
3. Aramis Ademan
4. Alex Lange
5. Nico Hoerner
6. Brailyn Marquez
7. Trevor Clifton
8. Tyson Miller
9. Cory Abbott
10. Brendon Little
11. Cole Roederer
12. Brennan Davis
13. Jose Albertos
14. Justin Steele
15. Nelson Velazquez
16. Richard Gallardo
17. Jose Lopez
18. Zack Short
19. Bailey Clark
20. Jhonny Pereda

Honorable mention: Paul Richan, Ian Rice, James Norwood, DJ Wilson, Tyler Thomas and Rollie Lacy.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby KingCubsFan » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:59 pm

Amaya is far and away the #1 prospect for me. I'd probably go with Hoerner after that.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:35 pm

Tim wrote:Good thread and interesting list. I've got a few major differences in my thinking, but I haven't really put together a list yet.


One depressing note from the Athletic article on ODLC's suspension:

Prior to that, he was once again sitting in the mid-90s. But upon his return in the Arizona Fall League, De La Cruz topped out at 92 in his lone outing. During the offseason, he made numerous Cubs top 10 prospect lists, ranking as high as third according to MLB.com and as low as eighth in Baseball Prospectus’ rankings.

When watching him in the backfields this past spring, I noticed that once again, he was struggling to get any higher than 92 on his heater and was mostly sitting below that mark. There was some optimism that he could build his arm strength back up, but it was clear the shine had worn off this once-ascending prospect.


It sure sounds like the explosiveness in his stuff hasn't been there this year. I will probably knock him down pretty far.


He's not in my top 15, maybe not top 20. If I get a little more time, I will make a list as well.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby toonsterwu » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:42 pm

I'd take that report with a grain of salt in that the commentator notes that he's judging arm strength on the back fields in spring. Doesn't mean he's not wrong, but weren't there some reports of ODLC in the 94-95 range this year? Thought there was.

As for a list ... ugh ... it ain't pretty. I think my top 4 goes Amaya/Alzolay/Hoerner/Ademan in that order. I guess Lange is 5th, but I really don't love it. I'm not so sure I wouldn't pop a "high floor" arm from our bevy in the top 10. At a certain point, performance matters. Reminds me somewhat of the lists 12-14 years ago, when guys like Sergio Mitre/Jon Leicester and others were coming up.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Regular Show » Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:39 pm

CubsWin wrote:To go 20 deep in this org right now is tough because after the first 5 or so it's anybody's guess really, but I'll give it a go. (No Caratini, Bote, Maples or Zagunis.)

1. Adbert Alzolay
2. Miguel Amaya
3. Aramis Ademan
4. Alex Lange
5. Nico Hoerner
6. Brailyn Marquez
7. Trevor Clifton
8. Tyson Miller
9. Cory Abbott
10. Brendon Little
11. Cole Roederer
12. Brennan Davis
13. Jose Albertos
14. Justin Steele
15. Nelson Velazquez
16. Richard Gallardo
17. Jose Lopez
18. Zack Short
19. Bailey Clark
20. Jhonny Pereda

Honorable mention: Paul Richan, Ian Rice, James Norwood, DJ Wilson, Tyler Thomas and Rollie Lacy.


I like your list, but I think you have Trevor Clifton too high. His stats are pretty good this year and he's at AAA now. He used to have a plus curveball and I wonder if it's back.

I'm trying to get more information on Jhonny Pereda and how his tools rate. Definitely a good sleeper prospect.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Donzo » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:30 am

CyHawk_Cub wrote:
Tim wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:Florencio Serrano's contract was voided

"Well scratch him off, then!"


At least he's not dead.


Done... TY!

I don't keep up with system like I use to, I just put the list together off the top of my head.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Donzo » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:35 am

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:It would be fabulous if Zagunis had a 1.100 OPS at AAA but it appears you looked at his MLB line.


So, not 1998 Sammy Sosa AAA OPS, but a 2018 Addison Russell AAA OPS- got it..... He'll still be able to get on base in the majors.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Donzo » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:39 am

PackLandVA wrote:What about Trent Giambrone? He’s getting love in the Minor League Musings forum. Bote 2.0


He's interesting- lot of HR's and a bunch of SB's this year... Just too over aged for prospect status for me, but who knows.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CubsWin » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:39 am

Regular Show wrote:
CubsWin wrote:To go 20 deep in this org right now is tough because after the first 5 or so it's anybody's guess really, but I'll give it a go. (No Caratini, Bote, Maples or Zagunis.)

1. Adbert Alzolay
2. Miguel Amaya
3. Aramis Ademan
4. Alex Lange
5. Nico Hoerner
6. Brailyn Marquez
7. Trevor Clifton
8. Tyson Miller
9. Cory Abbott
10. Brendon Little
11. Cole Roederer
12. Brennan Davis
13. Jose Albertos
14. Justin Steele
15. Nelson Velazquez
16. Richard Gallardo
17. Jose Lopez
18. Zack Short
19. Bailey Clark
20. Jhonny Pereda

Honorable mention: Paul Richan, Ian Rice, James Norwood, DJ Wilson, Tyler Thomas and Rollie Lacy.


I like your list, but I think you have Trevor Clifton too high. His stats are pretty good this year and he's at AAA now. He used to have a plus curveball and I wonder if it's back.

I'm trying to get more information on Jhonny Pereda and how his tools rate. Definitely a good sleeper prospect.

Thanks. There's plenty of room for interpretation. I can understand anyone disagreeing with any ranking after the top 4 or 5. That's the state of the Cubs system right now. But this is exactly where they should be after an unprecedented run producing young stars/regulars like Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, Schwarber, Contreras, Almora, Happ, Torres, Jimenez, Edwards, etc.

I like the youth and pitching depth currently in the system. There's a solid group of high ceiling prospects all under 20 (Amaya, Ademan, Marquez, Roederer, Davis, Albertos, Velazquez, Gallardo, Lopez, C. Morel, Kelli, Soto, Diaz, Estrada, etc.) and more pitchers with a chance than the Cubs have had in a long time (Alzolay, Lange, Clifton, Miller, Abbott, Little, Albertos, Steele, Clark, Richan, Maples, Mekkes, Norwood, the Professor and Mary Ann, etc.). We should know a lot more in a year or two, and that's about the time table the Cubs should be on.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Donzo » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:48 am

Lot of love for Amaya, that's great... I still have Alzolay ahead of Amaya.

Alzolay is much more advanced, as he should be. Amaya has only hit in 3/5th's of a season in low A and Alzolay's ceiling is just as high as Amaya's.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:54 am

Is it? I can see arguments either way, for Adbert or for Miguel.

Here's the thing ... I'm not so sure either Miguel Amaya and Adbert Alzolay are top tier level guys, guys that have the talent to ever be a, say, top 15 type prospect.

They are close, but the reason I lean Amaya is two fold ...

a) It's really good performance in a really difficult league, showcasing power that people had some questions. One of the bigger concerns was his approach at the plate, and he's almost doubled his BB rate from the year before (as of now). Tools are there to be profile as an above average regular.

b) I like Adbert, but I'm not sure I buy the Cubs contention that he's a TOR starter type. Yes, starters have excelled with 2 pitches before, but the changeup needs time and work, something he's losing right now. If not (that is, if the changeup doesn't develop), I recall Longenhagen compared him to Antonio Senzatela, a nice arm, but an end of the rotation type that might be better suited to late inning pen work. Add in some minor concerns on durability as a starter.

___

I'm obviously making a case for Amaya over Adbert, and there's a case for the other way - Adbert's more advanced, has two pitches that should comfortably project him to a major league role, and enough people suggest hope for the changeup that suggests he could be a mid-rotation type arm.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby sneakypower » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:04 pm

where would Bote place on these lists?
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby davell » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:08 pm

sneakypower wrote:where would Bote place on these lists?


Bote would be top 6 for me.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:38 pm

sneakypower wrote:where would Bote place on these lists?


I have Bote 5th. He's still prospect eligible but I assume he'll graduate (and/or be traded) by season's end.

1. C Miguel Amaya
2. RHP Adbert Alzolay
3. SS Aramis Ademan
4. SS Nico Hoerner
5. 2B David Bote
6. RHP Alex Lange
7. LHP Brailyn Márquez
8. OF Brennen Davis
9. OF Cole Roederer
10. C Jhonny Pereda
11. RHP Cory Abbott
12. LHP Justin Steele
13. LHP Brendon Little
14. RHP Oscar de la Cruz
15. RHP Duane Underwood Jr
16. RHP Dakota Mekkes
17. RHP Bailey Clark (this rating is a bit dependent on what his injury is and how severe it is)
18. SS Zack Short
19. RHP Duncan Robinson
20. RHP Richard Gallardo
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:34 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
sneakypower wrote:where would Bote place on these lists?


I have Bote 5th. He's still prospect eligible but I assume he'll graduate (and/or be traded) by season's end.

1. C Miguel Amaya
2. RHP Adbert Alzolay
3. SS Aramis Ademan
4. SS Nico Hoerner
5. 2B David Bote
6. RHP Alex Lange
7. LHP Brailyn Márquez
8. OF Brennen Davis
9. OF Cole Roederer

10. C Jhonny Pereda
11. RHP Cory Abbott
12. LHP Justin Steele
13. LHP Brendon Little
14. RHP Oscar de la Cruz
15. RHP Duane Underwood Jr
16. RHP Dakota Mekkes
17. RHP Bailey Clark (this rating is a bit dependent on what his injury is and how severe it is)
18. SS Zack Short
19. RHP Duncan Robinson
20. RHP Richard Gallardo


Get out of my head! That's the exact same top 9 I would have.
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