2018 Mid Season Top 20

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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:48 pm

I don't love Bote in the top 5 (if he's eligible), but I guess ... there isn't much there. I'd take him over Lange. The idea of Bote as top 5 is ... ugh.

I'm tempted to rank Duncan Robinson far higher, which sort of goes against my own rule on guys like him ... guys with command, but average stuff, for lack of a better way of phrasing it right now. I tend to want these guys to prove it at each level ... but I'm thoroughly impressed that Robinson's K rate has gone up this year. Sounds like the curveball is showing well, he commands the low 90's 2-seamer, and seems to have developed a decent cutter.

In a very pedestrian system, I'm tempted to make an argument that he's borderline top 10. I mean, he looks close to ready to get a shot in the majors, and his fastball/breaking ball combination should give him a decent chance to be a MLB reliever. It's not exciting, but it's steady.

I guess, thinking about it right now, I'm thinking more 12-15, so it's not a huge jump up from Raisin
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CubsWin » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:04 am

toonsterwu wrote:I don't love Bote in the top 5 (if he's eligible), but I guess ... there isn't much there. I'd take him over Lange. The idea of Bote as top 5 is ... ugh.

I'm tempted to rank Duncan Robinson far higher, which sort of goes against my own rule on guys like him ... guys with command, but average stuff, for lack of a better way of phrasing it right now. I tend to want these guys to prove it at each level ... but I'm thoroughly impressed that Robinson's K rate has gone up this year. Sounds like the curveball is showing well, he commands the low 90's 2-seamer, and seems to have developed a decent cutter.

In a very pedestrian system, I'm tempted to make an argument that he's borderline top 10. I mean, he looks close to ready to get a shot in the majors, and his fastball/breaking ball combination should give him a decent chance to be a MLB reliever. It's not exciting, but it's steady.

I guess, thinking about it right now, I'm thinking more 12-15, so it's not a huge jump up from Raisin

I agree with your assessment that he's a prove-it-at-every-level guy and it's encouraging that his K% has risen in AA. It's also encouraging that his swing strike % (10.5%) is also above average (around 9.5% usually in AA) denoting a certain level of deception. What worries me though is that despite that apparent deception, AA hitters are batting. 276 against him which is sharply up from previous seasons.

In some ways, this is to be expected, right? He's facing more advanced hitters, so he quite naturally will be giving up more hits. But you'd also expect serious prospects to develop as they face better hitters. The evidence is incomplete on this front. Southern League batters hit .305 against him in April, .288 in May and just .223 in June. If June isn't an outlier, then he'll rise up my boards. But so far in July (2 starts), he's allowed a .295 BAA.

The old school, tried and true benchmarks for me when giving a pitcher a once over, before diving in deeper, is age relative to level, BAA, WHIP, K-to-BB ratio, K/9 and BB/9. In levels from AA and lower, if the BAA is below .230, the WHIP below 1.15, the K/9 higher than 9 and BB/9 below 3 (and if the K% is less than 1 per inning than a solid K:BB ratio better than 3:1), I'm impressed. Admittedly, having benchmarks like that will result in some prospects slipping through and surprising me with their success later on. But I'm a professional actor, so I don't care.

Robinson may indeed be one who succeeds without fitting my personal profile, but if he can't get AA hitters out at a considerably better rate than he did in the 1st half (.281), I wonder how he'll fare in AAA without taking a noticeable step forward in his development.

The Cubs pitcher Robinson is most oft compared to is Kyle Hendricks. Kyle's BAA prior to AAA were .183 in SS-A, .253 in Low and High A and .227 in AA. I was intrigued by Hendricks after his A-ball year in 2012 but I didn't see 2013 coming in which he took a big step forward. Hendricks' minor league WHIPs were below 1.10 every year. Robinson have been 1.59, 1.09 last year which put him on the map and 1.26 so far in AA.

Right now, Robinson has been good in AA at 24. Hendricks dominated AA at 22. If Duncan can continue to improve throughout the 2nd half, I'll reassess.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:07 am

1 - Alzolay

2 - Ademan - This is less a knock on Amaya and more trusting that it’s easier to develop a MIF prospect than a C prospect whose fallback is 1B. Ademan's maintaining while on possibly the toughest assignment on the farm as a 19 YO SS in High A.

3 - Hoerner

4 - Amaya

5 - Short - He’s a SS showing power, speed, patience, and defense in AA in an absolutely barren system. Higher upside potential ceiling development than Bote due to his speed and defense, but either is a bit player on this team.

6- Lange - Maybe a bit more a project than first round pick college pick might seem to suggest, but he's healthy and doing fine. He and Alzolay are the only guys in the system more starter than reliever, and it's a fine line for both.

7 - Bote

8 - Maples

9 - Mekkes - There's probably a good reliever for the Cubs between these two arms

10 - Velazquez - Most interesting power/speed/defense combo in the system

11 - Gallardo

12 - Swarmer - Stayed and is healthy, repeats a weird delivery now, having a strong year

13 - Hudson

14 - Little

15 - Clifton

16 - Pereda

17 - Marquez

18 - Davis

19 - Roederer

20 - Steele Woof! Trade deadline help clean this up, please!

Crazy interchangeable after the first five for me. I'm partial to keeping Gallardo and Velazquez in that 8-12 range as they arguably have the highest potential upside ceilings to develop on the farm
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby davell » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:15 am

Marquez not in the top 20? Thomas was in your top 10 one week ago too, now not in top 20 either?
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:18 am

davell wrote:Marquez not in the top 20? Thomas was in your top 10 one week ago too, now not in top 20 either?


Marquez is an oversight h/u
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:37 am

Luis Vazquez might belong in the top 20 right now
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jul 20, 2018 4:04 pm

BA’s midseason top 10 is out: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... midseason/

1. Miguel Amaya
2. Adbert Alzolay
3. Aramis Ademan
4. Nico Hoerner
5. David Bote
6. Alex Lange
7. Keegan Thompson
8. Brendon Little
9. Oscar de la Cruz
10. Richard Gallardo

Rising: David Bote, Cory Abbott, Andruw Monasterio
Falling: José Albertos, Thomas Hatch
Injured: Justin Steele, Adbert Alzolay
Graduated: Victor Caratini, Luke Farrell, Randy Rosario
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Hrubes20 » Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:09 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA’s midseason top 10 is out: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... midseason/

1. Miguel Amaya
2. Adbert Alzolay
3. Aramis Ademan
4. Nico Hoerner
5. David Bote
6. Alex Lange
7. Keegan Thompson
8. Brendon Little
9. Oscar de la Cruz
10. Richard Gallardo

Rising: David Bote, Cory Abbott, Andruw Monasterio
Falling: José Albertos, Thomas Hatch
Injured: Justin Steele, Adbert Alzolay
Graduated: Victor Caratini, Luke Farrell, Randy Rosario


These national guys need to check in on Brailyn Marquez again. There is absolutely no rationale for Gallardo to be a top 10 prospect over him.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:32 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA’s midseason top 10 is out: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... midseason/

1. Miguel Amaya
2. Adbert Alzolay
3. Aramis Ademan
4. Nico Hoerner
5. David Bote
6. Alex Lange
7. Keegan Thompson
8. Brendon Little
9. Oscar de la Cruz
10. Richard Gallardo

Rising: David Bote, Cory Abbott, Andruw Monasterio
Falling: José Albertos, Thomas Hatch
Injured: Justin Steele, Adbert Alzolay
Graduated: Victor Caratini, Luke Farrell, Randy Rosario


These national guys need to check in on Brailyn Marquez again. There is absolutely no rationale for Gallardo to be a top 10 prospect over him.


I’m guessing he’ll be in the postseason top 5 once they finally get shortseason reports (and Bote will have graduated). There’s definitely a disconnect midseason on breakout guys, especially in leagues that are further away to access for most of the national media.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Bear Cub » Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:37 am

Looks like Cole Roederer will be in the top 10 shortly.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CubsWin » Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:10 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA’s midseason top 10 is out: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... midseason/

1. Miguel Amaya
2. Adbert Alzolay
3. Aramis Ademan
4. Nico Hoerner
5. David Bote
6. Alex Lange
7. Keegan Thompson
8. Brendon Little
9. Oscar de la Cruz
10. Richard Gallardo

Rising: David Bote, Cory Abbott, Andruw Monasterio
Falling: José Albertos, Thomas Hatch
Injured: Justin Steele, Adbert Alzolay
Graduated: Victor Caratini, Luke Farrell, Randy Rosario

Adding Bote to the graduated list, I've got:

1. Miguel Amaya
2. Adbert Alzolay
3. Aramis Ademan
4. Nico Hoerner
5. Alex Lange
6. Brailyn Marquez

And a large fog bank after that...

Lost in that fog you will find many Cubs prospects wandering around. You see a figure in the distance. Is that Trevor Clifton? You hear two guys discussing pitch selection. It's Johnny Pereda and Tyson Miller. You bump into what feels like a tree. "Oh, hey Duncan." "Watch where you're going," he responds. Draftmates Brendon Little and Cory Abbott walk by sharing a compass. You don't recognize that guy. Must be Gallardo. You hear someone complaing, "Why does no one know who I am?" You strain through the fog to see Giambrone written across the back of his jersey. Suddenly, you trip over something. You look down to see a pile of leaves covering the shallow grave of Jose Albertos. You hear some footfalls behind you and spin to find Christopher Morel feeling his way through the spectral mist. "Can you help me find my bat?", he asks. Under your breath you mutter, "Check extended spring training". A fresh-faced, wide eyed Michael Rucker approaches. He wonders aloud, "Is this heaven?" "No, it's Iowa", you joke. "Cool, I got promoted!" The fog thins. You see a clearing up ahead. As you emerge from the haze, Cole Roederer is there leaning jauntily on his bat like Mr. Peanut minus the monocle. "Dude, I think you've been looking for me..."
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Regular Show » Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:22 pm

CubsWin wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA’s midseason top 10 is out: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... midseason/

1. Miguel Amaya
2. Adbert Alzolay
3. Aramis Ademan
4. Nico Hoerner
5. David Bote
6. Alex Lange
7. Keegan Thompson
8. Brendon Little
9. Oscar de la Cruz
10. Richard Gallardo

Rising: David Bote, Cory Abbott, Andruw Monasterio
Falling: José Albertos, Thomas Hatch
Injured: Justin Steele, Adbert Alzolay
Graduated: Victor Caratini, Luke Farrell, Randy Rosario

Adding Bote to the graduated list, I've got:

1. Miguel Amaya
2. Adbert Alzolay
3. Aramis Ademan
4. Nico Hoerner
5. Alex Lange
6. Brailyn Marquez

And a large fog bank after that...

Lost in that fog you will find many Cubs prospects wandering around. You see a figure in the distance. Is that Trevor Clifton? You hear two guys discussing pitch selection. It's Johnny Pereda and Tyson Miller. You bump into what feels like a tree. "Oh, hey Duncan." "Watch where you're going," he responds. Draftmates Brendon Little and Cory Abbott walk by sharing a compass. You don't recognize that guy. Must be Gallardo. You hear someone complaing, "Why does no one know who I am?" You strain through the fog to see Giambrone written across the back of his jersey. Suddenly, you trip over something. You look down to see a pile of leaves covering the shallow grave of Jose Albertos. You hear some footfalls behind you and spin to find Christopher Morel feeling his way through the spectral mist. "Can you help me find my bat?", he asks. Under your breath you mutter, "Check extended spring training". A fresh-faced, wide eyed Michael Rucker approaches. He wonders aloud, "Is this heaven?" "No, it's Iowa", you joke. "Cool, I got promoted!" The fog thins. You see a clearing up ahead. As you emerge from the haze, Cole Roederer is there leaning jauntily on his bat like Mr. Peanut minus the monocle. "Dude, I think you've been looking for me..."


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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:29 pm

MLB.com's revised Cubs top 30 list at midseason: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=chc

1. Miguel Amaya,
2. Adbert Alzolay
3. Alex Lange
4. Brailyn Márquez
5. Aramis Ademan
6. Nico Hoerner
7. David Bote
8. Brendon Little
9. Justin Steele
10. Duane Underwood Jr
11. Oscar de la Cruz
12. Eric Uelmen
13. Keegan Thompson
14. Michael Rucker
15. Cole Roederer
16. Brennen Davis
17. DJ Wilson
18. Trevor Clifton
19. Cory Abbott
20. Thomas Hatch
21. José Albertos
22. Nelson Velázquez
23. Zack Short
24. James Norwood
25. Mark Zagunis
26. Erling Moreno
27. Richard Gallardo
28. Dillon Maples
29. Jason Vosler
30. Trent Giambrone

Jhonny Pereda and Dakota Mekkes are glaring omissions. Also no Duncan Robinson, Tyson Miller or Matt Swarmer.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Regular Show » Fri Jul 27, 2018 6:59 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:MLB.com's revised Cubs top 30 list at midseason: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=chc

1. Miguel Amaya,
2. Adbert Alzolay
3. Alex Lange
4. Brailyn Márquez
5. Aramis Ademan
6. Nico Hoerner
7. David Bote
8. Brendon Little
9. Justin Steele
10. Duane Underwood Jr
11. Oscar de la Cruz
12. Eric Uelmen
13. Keegan Thompson
14. Michael Rucker
15. Cole Roederer
16. Brennen Davis
17. DJ Wilson
18. Trevor Clifton
19. Cory Abbott
20. Thomas Hatch
21. José Albertos
22. Nelson Velázquez
23. Zack Short
24. James Norwood
25. Mark Zagunis
26. Erling Moreno
27. Richard Gallardo
28. Dillon Maples
29. Jason Vosler
30. Trent Giambrone

Jhonny Pereda and Dakota Mekkes are glaring omissions. Also no Duncan Robinson, Tyson Miller or Matt Swarmer.


Yeah, I was going to mention this. DJ Wilson is WAY too high and I'd drop him off the list honestly. I thought Giambrone would be higher. He has a good swing and decent speed.

I like Mekkes and think he should be on the list. Scouts just aren't impressed with Mekkes' stuff I guess?
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CubsWin » Sat Jul 28, 2018 1:50 am

Once again, MLB.com's prospect list is a mixed bag. Some of their picks a just straight up headscratchers.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:29 am

I have to agree on the DJ Wilson comment. I also really really want a trade to clear some of these pitchers off the list.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CubsWin » Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:00 am

At least Amaya made the top 100 (97th).
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Donzo » Sun Jul 29, 2018 11:24 am

Yeah, definitely some interesting omissions. How can they miss Pereda?

Liked the info on the new guys; Roederer, Davis and Gallardo... Liked the Norwood info, too. He's been extremely dominant (in a small sample size) in Iowa. With that success and his promotions to the majors, you gotta think his control and command have improved. He has closer type stuff, he could be very important.

Good to see Underwood back in the top 10, he deserves it.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CubsWin » Sun Jul 29, 2018 3:40 pm

Donzo wrote:Yeah, definitely some interesting omissions. How can they miss Pereda?

Liked the info on the new guys; Roederer, Davis and Gallardo... Liked the Norwood info, too. He's been extremely dominant (in a small sample size) in Iowa. With that success and his promotions to the majors, you gotta think his control and command have improved. He has closer type stuff, he could be very important.

Good to see Underwood back in the top 10, he deserves it.

He does? I mean, it seems more like a commentary on how weak the system is than a sign he's deserving somehow.

Don't get me wrong, he's answered some questions this year. He's stayed healthy. He has held his own in a hitter's league. He made his big league debut. But you could make a good argument that Clifton is a better prospect right now, and they've got him ranked 18th. Seems like after Hoerner slots 7 thru 20 are almost completely up to interpretation.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby Regular Show » Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:47 pm

Donzo wrote:Yeah, definitely some interesting omissions. How can they miss Pereda?

Liked the info on the new guys; Roederer, Davis and Gallardo... Liked the Norwood info, too. He's been extremely dominant (in a small sample size) in Iowa. With that success and his promotions to the majors, you gotta think his control and command have improved. He has closer type stuff, he could be very important.

Good to see Underwood back in the top 10, he deserves it.


Not sure Underwood deserves to be in the top 10, but he's pitching better this year for sure. I think the Cubs' farm system is not highly-rated and the back half of the top 10 is pretty weak. We have decent depth and lots of good prospects at the lowest levels.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:51 pm

David Bote graduated from prospect list eligibility today. MLB.com added Jeremiah Estrada at 30 to replace him and included this in his blurb:

He began 2018 in Extended Spring Training and came down with elbow soreness that lead the Cubs to shut him down as a precaution.
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CubsWin » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:02 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:David Bote graduated from prospect list eligibility today. MLB.com added Jeremiah Estrada at 30 to replace him and included this in his blurb:

He began 2018 in Extended Spring Training and came down with elbow soreness that lead the Cubs to shut him down as a precaution.

Yeah, that's everything I had heard too. No TJS is good though, I guess...
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