2018 Mid Season Top 20

toonsterwu
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:48 pm

I don't love Bote in the top 5 (if he's eligible), but I guess ... there isn't much there. I'd take him over Lange. The idea of Bote as top 5 is ... ugh.

I'm tempted to rank Duncan Robinson far higher, which sort of goes against my own rule on guys like him ... guys with command, but average stuff, for lack of a better way of phrasing it right now. I tend to want these guys to prove it at each level ... but I'm thoroughly impressed that Robinson's K rate has gone up this year. Sounds like the curveball is showing well, he commands the low 90's 2-seamer, and seems to have developed a decent cutter.

In a very pedestrian system, I'm tempted to make an argument that he's borderline top 10. I mean, he looks close to ready to get a shot in the majors, and his fastball/breaking ball combination should give him a decent chance to be a MLB reliever. It's not exciting, but it's steady.

I guess, thinking about it right now, I'm thinking more 12-15, so it's not a huge jump up from Raisin
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CubsWin
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby CubsWin » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:04 am

toonsterwu wrote:I don't love Bote in the top 5 (if he's eligible), but I guess ... there isn't much there. I'd take him over Lange. The idea of Bote as top 5 is ... ugh.

I'm tempted to rank Duncan Robinson far higher, which sort of goes against my own rule on guys like him ... guys with command, but average stuff, for lack of a better way of phrasing it right now. I tend to want these guys to prove it at each level ... but I'm thoroughly impressed that Robinson's K rate has gone up this year. Sounds like the curveball is showing well, he commands the low 90's 2-seamer, and seems to have developed a decent cutter.

In a very pedestrian system, I'm tempted to make an argument that he's borderline top 10. I mean, he looks close to ready to get a shot in the majors, and his fastball/breaking ball combination should give him a decent chance to be a MLB reliever. It's not exciting, but it's steady.

I guess, thinking about it right now, I'm thinking more 12-15, so it's not a huge jump up from Raisin

I agree with your assessment that he's a prove-it-at-every-level guy and it's encouraging that his K% has risen in AA. It's also encouraging that his swing strike % (10.5%) is also above average (around 9.5% usually in AA) denoting a certain level of deception. What worries me though is that despite that apparent deception, AA hitters are batting. 276 against him which is sharply up from previous seasons.

In some ways, this is to be expected, right? He's facing more advanced hitters, so he quite naturally will be giving up more hits. But you'd also expect serious prospects to develop as they face better hitters. The evidence is incomplete on this front. Southern League batters hit .305 against him in April, .288 in May and just .223 in June. If June isn't an outlier, then he'll rise up my boards. But so far in July (2 starts), he's allowed a .295 BAA.

The old school, tried and true benchmarks for me when giving a pitcher a once over, before diving in deeper, is age relative to level, BAA, WHIP, K-to-BB ratio, K/9 and BB/9. In levels from AA and lower, if the BAA is below .230, the WHIP below 1.15, the K/9 higher than 9 and BB/9 below 3 (and if the K% is less than 1 per inning than a solid K:BB ratio better than 3:1), I'm impressed. Admittedly, having benchmarks like that will result in some prospects slipping through and surprising me with their success later on. But I'm a professional actor, so I don't care.

Robinson may indeed be one who succeeds without fitting my personal profile, but if he can't get AA hitters out at a considerably better rate than he did in the 1st half (.281), I wonder how he'll fare in AAA without taking a noticeable step forward in his development.

The Cubs pitcher Robinson is most oft compared to is Kyle Hendricks. Kyle's BAA prior to AAA were .183 in SS-A, .253 in Low and High A and .227 in AA. I was intrigued by Hendricks after his A-ball year in 2012 but I didn't see 2013 coming in which he took a big step forward. Hendricks' minor league WHIPs were below 1.10 every year. Robinson have been 1.59, 1.09 last year which put him on the map and 1.26 so far in AA.

Right now, Robinson has been good in AA at 24. Hendricks dominated AA at 22. If Duncan can continue to improve throughout the 2nd half, I'll reassess.
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TomtheBombadil
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:07 am

1 - Alzolay

2 - Ademan - This is less a knock on Amaya and more trusting that it’s easier to develop a MIF prospect than a C prospect whose fallback is 1B. Ademan's maintaining while on possibly the toughest assignment on the farm as a 19 YO SS in High A.

3 - Hoerner

4 - Amaya

5 - Short - He’s a SS showing power, speed, patience, and defense in AA in an absolutely barren system. Higher upside potential ceiling development than Bote due to his speed and defense, but either is a bit player on this team.

6- Lange - Maybe a bit more a project than first round pick college pick might seem to suggest, but he's healthy and doing fine. He and Alzolay are the only guys in the system more starter than reliever, and it's a fine line for both.

7 - Bote

8 - Maples

9 - Mekkes - There's probably a good reliever for the Cubs between these two arms

10 - Velazquez - Most interesting power/speed/defense combo in the system

11 - Gallardo

12 - Swarmer - Stayed and is healthy, repeats a weird delivery now, having a strong year

13 - Hudson

14 - Little

15 - Clifton

16 - Pereda

17 - Marquez

18 - Davis

19 - Roederer

20 - Steele Woof! Trade deadline help clean this up, please!

Crazy interchangeable after the first five for me. I'm partial to keeping Gallardo and Velazquez in that 8-12 range as they arguably have the highest potential upside ceilings to develop on the farm
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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davell
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby davell » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:15 am

Marquez not in the top 20? Thomas was in your top 10 one week ago too, now not in top 20 either?
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TomtheBombadil
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:18 am

davell wrote:Marquez not in the top 20? Thomas was in your top 10 one week ago too, now not in top 20 either?


Marquez is an oversight h/u
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Re: 2018 Mid Season Top 20

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:37 am

Luis Vazquez might belong in the top 20 right now
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