2018 AFL

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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:32 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Can they trade recent draftees yet or is it still a PTBNL thing where he’s playing in the Cubs’ system until June?

I know they changed the rule a bit after the Trea Turner, Padres-Nats trade but I'm not sure what it is. I think they moved the date up though that it's not a full ~year after the draft anymore.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Bertz » Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:39 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:Can they trade recent draftees yet or is it still a PTBNL thing where he’s playing in the Cubs’ system until June?

I know they changed the rule a bit after the Trea Turner, Padres-Nats trade but I'm not sure what it is. I think they moved the date up though that it's not a full ~year after the draft anymore.


You can now trade guys the winter after they've been drafted, but there's no more PTBNL shenanigans allowed like the Padres did with Trea Turner.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:15 am

10/26:

LF DJ Wilson 0/6, 2 K
2B T. Giambrone 3/6, R, HR (2), 3 RBI, K
SS N. Hoerner 4/5, 2 R, HBP
3B PJ Higgins 0/5, R, BB, K
C J. Pereda 2/5, R, 2 RBI; defense: 0/1 CS

Giambrone is batting .435/.480/.739/1.219.

Nico is up to a .373/.400/,490/.890. Hoerner is 4th in batting average in the AFL among those who qualify. At this rate, he has a good chance of joining Amaya as a top 100 prospect by the time the AFL is over.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Regular Show » Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:48 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:10/26:

Nico is up to a .373/.400/.490/.890. Hoerner is 4th in batting average in the AFL among those who qualify. At this rate, he has a good chance of joining Amaya as a top 100 prospect by the time the AFL is over.


I wonder how high his hit tool will be rated going forward? It should be his best tool. It should be a 6. It's a great swing and he's decently fast. Should get a good amount of infield hits.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/?list=ss

So according to MLB.com's Top SS prospects list they have Fernando Tatis Jr., Royce Lewis, Brendan Rogers, Andres Gimenez all rated as 60 for the hit tool. Bo Bichette actually has the highest rated one among SS prospects at 70.

They have Nico Hoerner rated as a 55 right now, but that should move up. Not many SS prospects with a better hit tool.
Last edited by Regular Show on Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Regular Show » Sat Oct 27, 2018 11:10 pm





Man, even the sound of the ball coming off his bat sounds different. He's such an amazing hitter. He's hitting .458/.491/.604 with 5 BB and only 1 K so far.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:43 am

10/27:

RP B. Clark 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 2-0 GO-FO, 19-10 pitches-strikes, balk
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:15 pm

Bailey Clark is the only Cub playing the AFL All-Star Game. It'll be on Saturday on the MLB Network.

Not sure what Giambrone and Hoerner did to get snubbed.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:20 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Bailey Clark is the only Cub playing the AFL All-Star Game. It'll be on Saturday on the MLB Network.

Not sure what Giambrone and Hoerner did to get snubbed.


You can vote Nico in:
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Regular Show » Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:25 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Bailey Clark is the only Cub playing the AFL All-Star Game. It'll be on Saturday on the MLB Network.

Not sure what Giambrone and Hoerner did to get snubbed.


You can vote Nico in:


Nico is most definitely getting into the game now. This vote shouldn't even be close.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Regular Show » Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:07 pm

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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CubinNY » Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:29 pm

N. Hoerner. I'm hearing great things about this kid. Is it too soon to get hyped?
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Regular Show » Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:37 pm

CubinNY wrote:N. Hoerner. I'm hearing great things about this kid. Is it too soon to get hyped?


Image

I can't tell if you're making fun of me or being earnest...
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:37 pm

CubinNY wrote:N. Hoerner. I'm hearing great things about this kid. Is it too soon to get hyped?


He's good, although in terms of overall value, good in the way that Happ or Almora can be good, compared to say, Bryant or Baez or Contreras. I mentioned it on draft night, but a good outcome would be the type of value that the Rockies have gotten out of Lemahieu.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CubinNY » Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:44 pm

Regular Show wrote:
CubinNY wrote:N. Hoerner. I'm hearing great things about this kid. Is it too soon to get hyped?


Image

I can't tell if you're making fun of me or being earnest...

earnest. I haven't followed the minor leagues closely since 2015.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Regular Show » Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:45 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
CubinNY wrote:N. Hoerner. I'm hearing great things about this kid. Is it too soon to get hyped?


He's good, although in terms of overall value, good in the way that Happ or Almora can be good, compared to say, Bryant or Baez or Contreras. I mentioned it on draft night, but a good outcome would be the type of value that the Rockies have gotten out of Lemahieu.


Yeah, he definitely doesn't have the upside of Bryant or Baez or Contreras. I think it comes down to how much power he'll ultimately develop. I was down on the pick on draft night because there were still some high upside pitchers available. I didn't realize Nico would be this good with the bat.

I don't care about lineup construction too much, but he could be our long-term solution at leadoff as a high-average/high-OBP guy.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:31 am

10/29:

DH T. Giambrone 2/2, 2 BB
SS N. Hoerner 0/4, K
C PJ Higgins 1/3, BB
LF DJ Wilson 0/4, 4 K
RP M. Rondón 0/2 IP, 3 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 1-1 GO-FO, 31-16 pitches-strikes





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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Regular Show » Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:38 pm


Somehow missed this one. Talks about Vlad Jr. in the beginning and how he'll have to move off 3B eventually. 1B/DH is his future. Talks about how bored he looks out there and is trying to have fun/take big swings to entertain the crowds.

Chicago Cubs lefty Justin Steele is one of the few potential starting pitching prospects in the system, and he showed a little better velocity in his outing Thursday. Steele was throwing a 91-95 mph fastball and a solid-average curveball at 79-81 that he landed for strikes while also flashing a changeup that was too firm. Steele threw 50 innings this year in his rehab and return from 2017 Tommy John surgery, so it's a positive step to see that velocity again.


The Cubs also sent their first-round pick from this year, shortstop Nico Hoerner, an undersized middle infielder from Stanford who looks like a very smart player and shows good instincts on the bases and in the field. But he's very light on tools. He's a below-average runner who didn't make any hard contact when I saw him and doesn't look like he will, given his size.


These are the only Cubs prospects he talks about (no report on Giambrone). Not a glowing opinion on Hoerner from Keith Law. I think he's an average to slightly above-average runner. Looks pretty fast on film. I mean you can measure this by clocking his time to first. I'm surprised he doesn't mention the swing or hit tool. Again, maybe this report was from early in the AFL? Doesn't mention the arm or how he rates it. He mentions a bunch of other prospects in the article.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:29 am

10/30:

C J. Pereda 1/3, R, BB, K; defense: 2/5 CS
SP J. Steele 2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1-0 GO-FO, 44-26 pitches-strikes
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:09 pm

The Cubs also sent their first-round pick from this year, shortstop Nico Hoerner, an undersized middle infielder from Stanford who looks like a very smart player and shows good instincts on the bases and in the field. But he's very light on tools. He's a below-average runner who didn't make any hard contact when I saw him and doesn't look like he will, given his size.


Law is far from alone in thinking that Hoerner doesn't have much in the way of a power, arm, or defense tool. But speed? Below-average? That's just flat out wrong; to the point where I wonder if he was watching the right player.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:37 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
The Cubs also sent their first-round pick from this year, shortstop Nico Hoerner, an undersized middle infielder from Stanford who looks like a very smart player and shows good instincts on the bases and in the field. But he's very light on tools. He's a below-average runner who didn't make any hard contact when I saw him and doesn't look like he will, given his size.


Law is far from alone in thinking that Hoerner doesn't have much in the way of a power, arm, or defense tool. But speed? Below-average? That's just flat out wrong; to the point where I wonder if he was watching the right player.

Hey, Keith Law said what he said and made a proclamation. He isn’t backing down now.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Bull » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:40 pm

Regular Show wrote:
Somehow missed this one. Talks about Vlad Jr. in the beginning and how he'll have to move off 3B eventually. 1B/DH is his future. Talks about how bored he looks out there and is trying to have fun/take big swings to entertain the crowds.

Chicago Cubs lefty Justin Steele is one of the few potential starting pitching prospects in the system, and he showed a little better velocity in his outing Thursday. Steele was throwing a 91-95 mph fastball and a solid-average curveball at 79-81 that he landed for strikes while also flashing a changeup that was too firm. Steele threw 50 innings this year in his rehab and return from 2017 Tommy John surgery, so it's a positive step to see that velocity again.


The Cubs also sent their first-round pick from this year, shortstop Nico Hoerner, an undersized middle infielder from Stanford who looks like a very smart player and shows good instincts on the bases and in the field. But he's very light on tools. He's a below-average runner who didn't make any hard contact when I saw him and doesn't look like he will, given his size.


These are the only Cubs prospects he talks about (no report on Giambrone). Not a glowing opinion on Hoerner from Keith Law. I think he's an average to slightly above-average runner. Looks pretty fast on film. I mean you can measure this by clocking his time to first. I'm surprised he doesn't mention the swing or hit tool. Again, maybe this report was from early in the AFL? Doesn't mention the arm or how he rates it. He mentions a bunch of other prospects in the article.

So Mike Fontenot?
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:52 pm

Without any times or anything to work with, maybe Hoener looks faster than he is thanks to shorter strides + some good old fashioned benefit of doubt due to TWTW/GRIT?
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:56 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Without any times or anything to work with, maybe Hoener looks faster than he is thanks to shorter strides + some good old fashioned benefit of doubt due to TWTW/GRIT?

Fangraphs has him as a 70/70 on speed. I’d assume that’s based on some numbers they have access to or talked to guys about and this is likely Law just going all in one way on a guy that he does often.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:58 pm

Bull wrote:So Mike Fontenot?


I honestly get Fontenot vibes from Giambrone.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 6:16 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Without any times or anything to work with, maybe Hoener looks faster than he is thanks to shorter strides + some good old fashioned benefit of doubt due to TWTW/GRIT?


IIRC, he was timed around 4.1 home to 1st once he started playing after the draft. That's easily solidly above average and borderline plus. Francisco Lindor is in that range. I believe major league average for a RH batter is a little over 4.3, but my memory could be wrong.
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