2018 AFL

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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:05 am

Bailey Clark is now in the game.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CubsWin » Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:10 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Bailey Clark is now in the game.

And getting rocked.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:35 am

Hot takes, just started the game (did catch a couple Clark pitches - meh - and an impressive Whitley interview before restarting):

- League’s loaded with names and bonus babies this year

- Whitley has some Darvish in his delivery and approach with lots of spins, better changeup. What was REALLY impressive was the interview where he talked about his long term command development. He believes improved body control through strength and conditioning will hone his command. He seems worth the hype

- Meh on Nate Pearson. Straight fastball, Alonso timed him out in one pitch. He showed a change, I think, at 93 that looked like meat if served up to a quality ML hitter

- Evan White’s frame was better than expected

- Lucius Fox has some premium athleticism

- Everyone seems so gd fit and well coached. For instance Pearson’s delivery was more competent than I expected, this Duplantier guy looks terrifying as a SP but is in great shape, Bailey Clark’s most impressive attribute was his frame but things fell apart once he started pitching...

- Keston Hiura seems like he can really help Milwaukee soon

- Vlad Jr can move well for having such a stout frame, fingers crossed he can stick at 3B
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:16 am

Nico smacks a line single up the middle off Jordan Sheffield in his first at bat.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:17 am

CubsWin wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Bailey Clark is now in the game.

And getting rocked.


I was disappointed with FB velocity only being in the 94-96 range in a short burst. And thought his infield defense could’ve helped limit some of that damage.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CubsWin » Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:28 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
CubsWin wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Bailey Clark is now in the game.

And getting rocked.


I was disappointed with FB velocity only being in the 94-96 range in a short burst. And thought his infield defense could’ve helped limit some of that damage.

Yeah he was throwing some heat but not well commanded tonight. Almost threw two over the mitt of the catcher who had to jump up and make nice athletic plays to get them. He also left several FBs over the heart of the plate that got hit hard. He's been better. Maybe had some butterflies.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:41 am

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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Nov 04, 2018 5:44 pm

Oh yeah, going with Law on Hoerner’s speed. He was handily caught stealing but also I found his lower body to be a little less twitchy and/or projectable than playing against lesser comp made it seem
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:59 pm

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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Nov 04, 2018 10:11 pm





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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:38 pm

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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:30 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:When considering speed in a baseball context, it's exactly as identifable as pitching velocity. One uses a radar gun, the other a stopwatch. Or Statcast for both. Just because one is defined more often does not mean that another is less identifable. But you're smarter than to make this argument. You know that pitching velocity can be altered by about a million mechanical things, as well as arm health and such. The same does not apply to speed. Name one 21 year old who not only got slower, but TWO levels slower, in 4 months without sustaining injury or gaining a ton of weight? It just doesn't happen. That's why I think toonster's mention is probably spot on. Law surely wasn't talking about speed, but the all-encompassing "baserunning". There have been plenty of players that had insticts and IQ off the charts in other aspects of the game, but weren't good baserunners.


No, a pitcher throws a ball more often than one individual batter offers a situation where their speed can be measured in a game. In a given amateur game you’re probably seeing 100+ pitches from a half decent pitcher as opposed to, on a lucky day, a handful of times not all usable. Then you’re dealing with more possibility for human error with hand timed stopwatches.


Which is why you get a 4.1-4.2 range (to account for human error) and why statcast can get it more accurately. You only need a handful of times in this range to tell a player's speed, since you can quickly eliminate the times when the player slipped or stumbled coming out of the box. It's identifiable very quickly and does not fluctuate like pitching velocity. You should probably just stop comparing running speed and pitching velocity anyway. They really are two completely different animals.

I found several videos of Hoerner running from Home to 1st both at Stanford and in the minors. Using my phone's stopwatch, I got between 4.03 and 4.21 every time, with most coming just below or over that 4.1 figure which is what was being reported by Cubs Den.

CubwWin wrote:Yeah, and Statcast isn't perfect either. I mean that guy isn't running in a straight line out there. How are those computers supposed to tell? You simply cannot accurately identify the speed of a two different moving objects. Baseballs are round and small. Human beings are a completely different shape and much, much larger when you measure them.


I'm not sure if you are being sarcastic or not, but Statcast provides a computer stopwatch from home to first that takes the human element away. It's very accurate and functions much the same as an official time in an olympic race or the timing of the 40 yd dash at the NFL combine. While the path may not be exactly the same each time, a player busting down the line is not going to veer off course by much.

TomtheBombadil wrote:Oh yeah, going with Law on Hoerner’s speed. He was handily caught stealing but also I found his lower body to be a little less twitchy and/or projectable than playing against lesser comp made it seem.


So you are using amateur subjective opinion as an argument against objective fact? Yikes. The lesser comp argument also holds zero stock for something that can be calculated, such as speed. If anything a player runs FASTER against better competition. You've chosen a really bad hill to die on.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:26 pm

CubsDen was citing StatCast data now? I find it a little fishy that you laid down the StatCast blanket but in the end ended up hand timing Youtube clips

I compared velocity and running speed only in their ability to be measured reliably in a given outing, perhaps explaining Law’s updated take. Common sense says a handful of times will be less reliable than the dozens of individual reads a pitcher offers. Can you confirm StatCast was doing the leg work for CubsDen, however they managed to get that data?

BTW stating my own observation is not using or citing anthing, quit reaching here. It’s not so wild to not blindly believe a Cubs prospect blog with a little bit of a homer reputation citing likely their own numbers that happen to pump up a shiny new Cubs prospect.

End of the day, Law’s easily the higher source on prospects between the two for a wider perspective and his overall eval falls more in line with what could be reasonably expected based on Hoerner’s performances and pedigeee, so I’m giving his observations more weight. If Hoerner bumps it up next year while pro evaluators get a full season look at him against pros then he bumps it up next year, also not unprecedented.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:47 am





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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:58 pm

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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:52 pm

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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:01 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:CubsDen was citing StatCast data now? I find it a little fishy that you laid down the StatCast blanket but in the end ended up hand timing Youtube clips

I compared velocity and running speed only in their ability to be measured reliably in a given outing, perhaps explaining Law’s updated take. Common sense says a handful of times will be less reliable than the dozens of individual reads a pitcher offers. Can you confirm StatCast was doing the leg work for CubsDen, however they managed to get that data?

BTW stating my own observation is not using or citing anthing, quit reaching here. It’s not so wild to not blindly believe a Cubs prospect blog with a little bit of a homer reputation citing likely their own numbers that happen to pump up a shiny new Cubs prospect.

End of the day, Law’s easily the higher source on prospects between the two for a wider perspective and his overall eval falls more in line with what could be reasonably expected based on Hoerner’s performances and pedigeee, so I’m giving his observations more weight. If Hoerner bumps it up next year while pro evaluators get a full season look at him against pros then he bumps it up next year, also not unprecedented.


Statcast was mentioned only in generalities as to how easily speed was identifiable, and was only done once you tried to make the erronious comparison to pitching velocity. I do not claim, nor have I, that we have public Statcast times for Hoerner. I'm sure CubsDen hand-timed Nico, as I did.

Re: the bolded - Yet it would still be wrong, assuming the handful of times are ones in which the runner isn't stumbling or that it's not raining. 3 non-stumbling times on a dry surface is probably all you need. Speed just doesn't fluctuate in a healthy 21 year old. That's why they give participants 2 tries in the 40 yd dash at the NFL combine. It's realized and identified very, very quickly.

You specifically stated that you are backing Law on Hoerner's speed (again, I think he meant baserunning in general) based on your observations. How is that anything but "using" your amateur scouting opinion? That's the exact opposite of a reach, which I don't need to do in this discussion. And I very clearly stated that I have done my own times in his videos. My results mirrored those of CubsDen. Please tell me how doing my own work is "blindly believing a Cubs prospect blog". Throw in the fact that literally every other scouting report on Hoerner, predraft or postdraft,

I absolutely agree that Law's scouting reports on a prospect should be given weight; and on things that aren't objectively identifiable, he should be believed over amateurs. But when Law is blatantly wrong (running with your assumption that he meant speed) on something that is and can be identified objectively, you can safely ignore it. This is doubly so when literally every other scouting report is to the contrary, including the predraft one by Law himself. It's like believing the 1 scientific study that says humans aren't contributing to climate change over the objective evidence and 100's of other reports that say humans are contributing. Like I said before, you've chosen a bad hill to die on.

Your last sentence has me scratching me head as well. Please name one player without leg injuries or weight gain that was universally given above average to plus speed grades predraft, dropped to below average speed 4 months later, and then somehow found the speed back the next year? You claim it's unprecedented, so I genuinely am curious. Other tools? Sure. But not speed.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:32 am

I just have questions:

- So StatCast has been serving as this band-aid throughout the conversation only to play no actual role in the Hoerner measurements? Alrighty then

- 3 times under perfect specific conditions - this you see as just as easy as measuring pitcher velocity?

- Is your legit explanation for picking 3 out of a hat that the NFL uses two to determine the ultra reliable, super important, and ultra functional 40 yard dash to definitively quantify speed? Hmk

- Did you have a straight face as your picked 3 and wrote that explanation?

- Just to make sure I get this - two runs in shorts and a tee on turf definitively defines NFL speed and three on a flat surface something does it for MLB?

My last line was a throwaway attempt at an olive branch.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CubsWin » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:27 am

Take it PMs at this point or start a new topic. Title it "Is Nico Hoerner Fast?" or something. I mean, for Pete's sake, check the horse every now and then to see if it's still breathing...
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby Regular Show » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:46 am





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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:05 am

Loud contact in the air? Yes, please! Teach this to Willson Contreras, please!
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Nov 10, 2018 5:34 am

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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:43 pm

Today’s Mesa game will be on MLB Network at 7 pm CT. I hope we get some more Nico action.

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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:05 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Today’s Mesa game will be on MLB Network at 7 pm CT. I hope we get some more Nico action.



Hoerner is batting second at short, Giambrone is batting third and playing third and Higgins is catching and batting 8th. The game is about to start.
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Re: 2018 AFL

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:13 am

Hoerner triples on a groundball down the 3rd base line...There was an interesting convo on his defense during the PA. They didn’t seem confident about him at SS (considered it more the Cubs testing/challenging his athleticism as is pretty standard) thanks to a maybe average arm and final word before he smacked the triple was 2B. Someone threw out Brian Dozier’s name into the convo going with untapped power

Random thought I’ve had watching Hoerner is that he’s no Isaac Paredes

2nd PA was an opp field line drive that died at the warning track, was patient knowing the pitcher was tired

Damn, 3rd PA tapped a ball back to the pitcher for a bases loaded double play
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