BA, BP, Fangraphs, Keith Law & MLB Pipeline's Cubs' Top Prospects List

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Re: BA & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:08 pm

BP’s top 10 is out. Not a fan: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... prospects/

The State of the System: It’s better at the top than it was last year, but calling the Cubs system “improved” overall is a stretch.

The Top Ten:

Nico Hoerner, SS
Miguel Amaya, C
Alex Lange, RHP
Adbert Alzolay, RHP
Aramis Ademan, SS
Justin Steele, LHP
Brailyn Marquez, LHP
Cole Roederer, OF
Brennen Davis, OF
Alec Mills, RHP
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:07 pm

Woot, some Alex Lange love...Find that four seam again!
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Tim » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:23 pm

Alex Lange needs to spend some time at Driveline.

In fact, the Cubs should just buy those guys out and use it as pitching instructs.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Bertz » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:37 am

In Keith Law's rankings Amaya came in at 91 and Hoerner came in at 110
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:15 am

Aren’t the Cubs pro Driveline too? I could have sworn they hired someone within the past year...One thing I like and liked about Lange was his still projectable build after a strong college career. He’s got the broad shoulders, the high cut waist, whatever extremity dims (I’ve heard this is a thing) help get the kind of spin he gets...I believe there’s another 15+ pounds of carefully engineered muscle to throw on him, easy. Maybe he can join Ben Sheets as LSU curveballers who had then lost then found the four seam to pair with their swing and miss curves after filling out the upper body?
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:48 am

Ben Sheets went to Louisiana-Monroe, not LSU.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:14 pm

Bertz wrote:In Keith Law's rankings Amaya came in at 91 and Hoerner came in at 110

Here's what he said about Amaya and Hoerner...

The lone Cub on the list or even particularly close to it, Amaya struggled as an 18-year-old in the advanced short-season Northwest League in 2017, putting up a .266 OBP. But another year of growth had him a different player in the full-season Midwest League, where he hit .256/.349/.403 and threw out 41 percent of opposing runners. Amaya is an offensive catcher, perhaps a future average defender with a plus arm, but a potential 55-grade hitter with average power and a solid idea of the strike zone. He has to continue to get stronger, if only for durability. He slugged .478 before the major league All-Star break but hit .198 with a .223 slugging percentage after it, which isn't surprising for a 19-year-old at a very demanding position, but it's a clear area for improvement.

Amaya has a very simple swing and approach, with a direct path to the ball, good balance through contact and enough loft for 15-plus-homer power, perhaps more if he gets stronger than expected. He will turn 20 in March, so there's risk here, but right now, he looks like a solid everyday catcher with a high floor as a quality backup.


Hoerner is more of a skills guy than a tools guy, as the Cubs' first-round pick in 2018 out of Stanford doesn't have a six anywhere on his scouting report. He's probably going to end up at second base, although his instincts are so good he might beat the odds and stay at short, and he's an elite baserunner who looks like he's going to steal bases at a very high success rate. Questions about his position and his history of running short at-bats (and thus not walking much for a guy without power) kept him off the 100.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:44 pm

Keith Law is at all times being the Keith Lawiest he can be.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby big ball chunky time » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:55 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Keith Law is at all times being the Keith Lawiest he can be.


what do you disagree with in that assessment
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:06 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Keith Law is at all times being the Keith Lawiest he can be.


what do you disagree with in that assessment


Most of what he says about Hoerner, except for the part that basically contradicts itself. But that's part of the charm, it's nothing that's indefensible or you can't logic your way to, it's just that he talks like a normal prospect analyst that decided to use Kyle as a spokesperson.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:28 pm

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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:49 pm

The Amaya write up sounds a bit like Willy as a comp
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:34 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1090738244554235909


He said it, not me
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby big ball chunky time » Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:54 am

Lmao go read his chat today and count how many times he answered an honest question with some rude [expletive] answer (or twitter slang a 40 year old single dad prospect expert) shouldn’t be using.

I know you have to be somewhere on the spectrum to receive money to talk about baseball prospects but god this guy sucks
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:25 am

Cubswin11 wrote:The Amaya write up sounds a bit like Willy as a comp


No. Willy has better overall tools and is a much better athlete. Better arm, more power, more speed, more batspeed, etc.

I wouldn't use Willy as a comp for Amaya. I like Amaya, but his high ceiling will be achieved if he becomes a better receiver/defender than Contreras. I seriously doubt he'll develop a better bat, and I think the second-half of last season was a fluke for Willy.
Last edited by Regular Show on Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:58 am

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:Lmao go read his chat today and count how many times he answered an honest question with some rude [expletive] answer (or twitter slang a 40 year old single dad prospect expert) shouldn’t be using.

I know you have to be somewhere on the spectrum to receive money to talk about baseball prospects but god this guy sucks


To be fair, he gets asked a lot of dumb questions and some people hate him for not having their favorite team's prospects ranked higher. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel have to put up with this crap too over at Fangraphs. They're not as mean and/or snarky in their chats, but I'm sure they get frustrated as well.

PS -- I have not read today's chat lol. I'll go read it later.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby CubsWin » Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:03 am

Regular Show wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:The Amaya write up sounds a bit like Willy as a comp


No. Willy has better overall tools and is a much better athlete. Better arm, more power, more speed, more batspeed, etc.

I wouldn't use Willy as a comp for Amaya. I like Amaya, but his high ceiling will be achieved if he becomes a better receiver/defender than Contreras. I seriously doubt he'll develop a better bat, and I think the second-half of last season was a fluke for Willy.

I agree with you on Amaya's offensive ceiling being lower than Willy's and that he's not the athlete Willy is, but he may already be a better receiver/framer and his arm isn't far behind.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:58 pm

Law is the only guy around saying Amaya's offense is ahead of his defense.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:24 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Law is the only guy around saying Amaya's offense is ahead of his defense.


Yeah, seems like it and this with him doing so much right on offense (that K rate and IsoSLG combo)

Amaya may not be the raw athlete Contreras is but he’s got the potential to be bigger, stronger, and better defensively. He’s the kind of guy that, if he were to succeed and really hit the high end of that upside ceiling potential development, would have us maybe seriously discussing whether WAR actually captures the value of a fully nuanced catcher (hint: it probably does! As it probably does all players taking advantage of our desire to reduce people to numbers because business but that’s...I like to say things sometimes).
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Regular Show » Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:48 pm

The Cubs' fall from farm system grace has been abrupt, sped by graduations and the trades of two elite prospects (Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jimenez) for pitching help, as well as worse results in the drafts since they began picking toward the end of the first round. There may not be a starting pitching prospect in the system who projects as more than a No. 5 starter, and without last year's draft class there's only one position player prospect who projects as a regular.


Keith Law rates the Cubs' farm system 29th with only horsefeathering Baltimore having a worse system. He rated it 25th last year. I think it's a little higher than that, but it's definitely in the bottom third of farm systems in MLB.

We give some criticism to Theo for trading away some top prospects and other notable prospects here and there, but I'm surprised how little flak Jason McLeod gets around here. If you're going to criticize Theo (and Jed) for the state of the farm system right now then you should also rip McLeod IMO.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:01 pm

I don’t have Premium but I believe this is Keith Law’s Cubs Top 10 Prospects:

1. Amaya
2. Hoerner
3. Marquez
4. Alzolay
5. Davis
6. Roederer
7. Ademan
8. de la Cruz
9. Uelman
10. Swarmer

That 8-10 sure is different.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Tim » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:25 pm

I was with him through the first seven
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby d_money » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:35 pm

Regular Show wrote:
The Cubs' fall from farm system grace has been abrupt, sped by graduations and the trades of two elite prospects (Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jimenez) for pitching help, as well as worse results in the drafts since they began picking toward the end of the first round. There may not be a starting pitching prospect in the system who projects as more than a No. 5 starter, and without last year's draft class there's only one position player prospect who projects as a regular.


Keith Law rates the Cubs' farm system 29th with only horsefeathering Baltimore having a worse system. He rated it 25th last year. I think it's a little higher than that, but it's definitely in the bottom third of farm systems in MLB.

We give some criticism to Theo for trading away some top prospects and other notable prospects here and there, but I'm surprised how little flak Jason McLeod gets around here. If you're going to criticize Theo (and Jed) for the state of the farm system right now then you should also rip McLeod IMO.

I agree - McLeod has gotten a free pass. After hearing about the focus on drafting pitching - and continue to hear that the pitching is “on its way” - the results at the big league level have not shown.

The possibility that McLeod may leave to be the GM elsewhere used to concern me. I no longer have that feeling. He’s free to go.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Bertz » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:47 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:I don’t have Premium but I believe this is Keith Law’s Cubs Top 10 Prospects:

1. Amaya
2. Hoerner
3. Marquez
4. Alzolay
5. Davis
6. Roederer
7. Ademan
8. de la Cruz
9. Uelman
10. Swarmer

That 8-10 sure is different.


7-10 is a little jumbled. Here's the full list:

1. Miguel Amaya
2. Nico Hoerner
3. Brailyn Marquez
4. Adbert Alzolay
5. Brennen Davis
6. Cole Roederer
7. Matt Swarmer
8. Aramis Ademan
9. Oscar De La Cruz
10. Erich Uelmen
11. Alex Lange
12. Tyson Miller
13. Yovanny Cruz
14. Justin Steele
15. Keegan Thompson
16. Brendon Little
17. Thomas Hatch
18. Michael Rucker
19. Duncan Robinson
20. Nelson Velazques
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Regular Show » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:45 pm

d_money wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
The Cubs' fall from farm system grace has been abrupt, sped by graduations and the trades of two elite prospects (Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jimenez) for pitching help, as well as worse results in the drafts since they began picking toward the end of the first round. There may not be a starting pitching prospect in the system who projects as more than a No. 5 starter, and without last year's draft class there's only one position player prospect who projects as a regular.


Keith Law rates the Cubs' farm system 29th with only horsefeathering Baltimore having a worse system. He rated it 25th last year. I think it's a little higher than that, but it's definitely in the bottom third of farm systems in MLB.

We give some criticism to Theo for trading away some top prospects and other notable prospects here and there, but I'm surprised how little flak Jason McLeod gets around here. If you're going to criticize Theo (and Jed) for the state of the farm system right now then you should also rip McLeod IMO.

I agree - McLeod has gotten a free pass. After hearing about the focus on drafting pitching - and continue to hear that the pitching is “on its way” - the results at the big league level have not shown.

The possibility that McLeod may leave to be the GM elsewhere used to concern me. I no longer have that feeling. He’s free to go.


Totally agree. I've listened to him in interviews and didn't come away impressed. I don't know exactly how much blame to lay on McLeod, but I think he's done a poor job as scouting director and/or the guy mostly in charge of the amateur draft for the Cubs. It doesn't sound like he's in danger of losing his job or getting demoted, but the pitchers we've selected in the draft have consistently disappointed since 2012.
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