BA, BP, Fangraphs, Keith Law & MLB Pipeline's Cubs' Top Prospects List

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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Bertz » Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:31 am

I find it hard to complain about McLeod when the totality of his drafts and signing periods has been pretty stellar. More balance would obviously be nice, but dumping him because he can't develop pitchers would seem to be a real "throwing out the baby with the bathwater" situation.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:46 am

Bertz wrote:I find it hard to complain about McLeod when the totality of his drafts and signing periods has been pretty stellar. More balance would obviously be nice, but dumping him because he can't develop pitchers would seem to be a real "throwing out the baby with the bathwater" situation.


Agreed with this and would argue that the pitching, while not obvious yet, is moving in the right direction with more physical talent in the system than at any point under this FO. It’s probably more complicated than an outright inability to develop pitching - a mix of priorities, spending limits, and the perrenially very short supply of actual high quality/impact pitching in existence at all levels combined are probably big factors.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Regular Show » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:04 am

Bertz wrote:I find it hard to complain about McLeod when the totality of his drafts and signing periods has been pretty stellar. More balance would obviously be nice, but dumping him because he can't develop pitchers would seem to be a real "throwing out the baby with the bathwater" situation.


To be fair to McLeod and the Cubs' scouting department, their track record will look better if Dylan Cease gets promoted to the big leagues and does well. Same thing for Justin Steele.

Also, Zack Godley was a late round draft pick and he's developed into a decent starter. That was a great pick/signing.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Bertz » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:31 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Bertz wrote:I find it hard to complain about McLeod when the totality of his drafts and signing periods has been pretty stellar. More balance would obviously be nice, but dumping him because he can't develop pitchers would seem to be a real "throwing out the baby with the bathwater" situation.


Agreed with this and would argue that the pitching, while not obvious yet, is moving in the right direction with more physical talent in the system than at any point under this FO. It’s probably more complicated than an outright inability to develop pitching - a mix of priorities, spending limits, and the perrenially very short supply of actual high quality/impact pitching in existence at all levels combined are probably big factors.


Absolutely. I think priorities is a great way of saying it. Lange and Little are the highest picks they've used on pitchers by a fairly wide margin. And most impact starters come through the very top of the draft.

Also agreed that the pitching in the system now is moving in the right direction. I think 2019 is the year we start getting legit help in the bullpen from the farm, and 2020 for starters.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:13 pm

Bertz wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:I don’t have Premium but I believe this is Keith Law’s Cubs Top 10 Prospects:

1. Amaya
2. Hoerner
3. Marquez
4. Alzolay
5. Davis
6. Roederer
7. Ademan
8. de la Cruz
9. Uelman
10. Swarmer

That 8-10 sure is different.


7-10 is a little jumbled. Here's the full list:

1. Miguel Amaya
2. Nico Hoerner
3. Brailyn Marquez
4. Adbert Alzolay
5. Brennen Davis
6. Cole Roederer
7. Matt Swarmer
8. Aramis Ademan
9. Oscar De La Cruz
10. Erich Uelmen
11. Alex Lange
12. Tyson Miller
13. Yovanny Cruz
14. Justin Steele
15. Keegan Thompson
16. Brendon Little
17. Thomas Hatch
18. Michael Rucker
19. Duncan Robinson
20. Nelson Velazques


Thanks!
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:14 pm

John Sickels resurfaced at The Athletic. He put out his top 100 list: https://theathletic.com/808011/2019/02/ ... -for-2019/

89) Miguel Amaya, C, Chicago Cubs, (Grade B): Age 19, hit .256/.349/.403 with 12 homers in A-ball; good defender who could be excellent in time; power took a step forward and he controls zone reasonably, giving breakout potential as a prospect; ETA 2021.

95) Nico Hoerner, SS, Chicago Cubs, (Grade B): Age 21, first rounder in 2018 from Stanford, hit .327/.450/.571 in 49 AB between Rookie ball and Single-A; very impressive in Arizona Fall League; excellent plate discipline with touches of speed and power; ETA 2021.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby David » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:28 pm

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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:10 pm

Some of it may be deference to this FO's success in drafting 1st round college bats, but I don't recall any other recently drafted players taken in the range of Nico that debuted in the top 100 of a national publication the next year. I mean, Ian Happ was taken 9th overall in 2015 and was only ranked 87th by BA before the 2016 season. Pretty impressive.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Tim » Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:13 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:Some of it may be deference to this FO's success in drafting 1st round college bats, but I don't recall any other recently drafted players taken in the range of Nico that debuted in the top 100 of a national publication the next year. I mean, Ian Happ was taken 9th overall in 2015 and was only ranked 87th by BA before the 2016 season. Pretty impressive.

I think it's partially that and partially how impressive he was in the AFL
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Regular Show » Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:33 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:Some of it may be deference to this FO's success in drafting 1st round college bats, but I don't recall any other recently drafted players taken in the range of Nico that debuted in the top 100 of a national publication the next year. I mean, Ian Happ was taken 9th overall in 2015 and was only ranked 87th by BA before the 2016 season. Pretty impressive.


I'll have to go back and look, but most players don't go to the AFL the same year they're drafted. I think it's draft pedigree and not wanting "recency bias" to play a part in these evaluations.

The people making these lists wonder how good could this player really be if 20+ players were taken ahead of them in the most recent draft. Has that player really jumped ahead of those higher draft picks (enough to warrant being on a top 100 prospect list) in such a short time? Like I'm not certain Nico Hoerner is a better prospect than Alec Bohm. He's certainly performed and hit at a higher level.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:05 pm

Regular Show wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:Some of it may be deference to this FO's success in drafting 1st round college bats, but I don't recall any other recently drafted players taken in the range of Nico that debuted in the top 100 of a national publication the next year. I mean, Ian Happ was taken 9th overall in 2015 and was only ranked 87th by BA before the 2016 season. Pretty impressive.


I'll have to go back and look, but most players don't go to the AFL the same year they're drafted. I think it's draft pedigree and not wanting "recency bias" to play a part in these evaluations.

The people making these lists wonder how good could this player really be if 20+ players were taken ahead of them in the most recent draft. Has that player really jumped ahead of those higher draft picks (enough to warrant being on a top 100 prospect list) in such a short time? Like I'm not certain Nico Hoerner is a better prospect than Alec Bohm. He's certainly performed and hit at a higher level.


Do some of the national guys have him ahead of Bohm?
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Regular Show » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:46 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:Some of it may be deference to this FO's success in drafting 1st round college bats, but I don't recall any other recently drafted players taken in the range of Nico that debuted in the top 100 of a national publication the next year. I mean, Ian Happ was taken 9th overall in 2015 and was only ranked 87th by BA before the 2016 season. Pretty impressive.


I'll have to go back and look, but most players don't go to the AFL the same year they're drafted. I think it's draft pedigree and not wanting "recency bias" to play a part in these evaluations.

The people making these lists wonder how good could this player really be if 20+ players were taken ahead of them in the most recent draft. Has that player really jumped ahead of those higher draft picks (enough to warrant being on a top 100 prospect list) in such a short time? Like I'm not certain Nico Hoerner is a better prospect than Alec Bohm. He's certainly performed and hit at a higher level.


Do some of the national guys have him ahead of Bohm?


http://insider.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto ... pects-2019

Not sure about the other national guys, but Keith Law has Hoerner ranked #110. I just looked at his Top 100 list and Alec Bohm isn't on there so he must have Hoerner ranked ahead of Bohm now. He's probably not too far behind him.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby David » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:52 pm

BP has him 86th and MLB.com has him at 100
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:52 pm

Sickels (now at the Atheltic) has Amaya at 89 and Nico at 95 on his top 100. Roederer was on the sleepers/beyond 100.
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Re: BA, BP & Fangraphs Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby David » Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:24 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Sickels (now at the Atheltic) has Amaya at 89 and Nico at 95 on his top 100. Roederer was on the sleepers/beyond 100.

You shouldn't even bother trying to beat Raisin at his game
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Re: BA, BP, Fangraphs & Keith Law's Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:58 pm

Fangraphs Top 100: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/

73. Miguel Amaya
105. Nico Hoerner
119. Aramis Ademan
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Re: BA, BP, Fangraphs & Keith Law's Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby CubsWin » Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:26 am

Not a fan of Jim Bowden, but FWIW he's putting out a top 200 list on The Athletic. So far, he's published 101-200. Looks like Amaya will be the only Cub in his top 100. Here are the Cubs listed thus far. (He seems to think Cole Roederer didn't play last year, so let that be an indicator of the quality of his work...)

188. Cole Roederer, OF, Chicago Cubs
Age: 19 Height: 6-0 Weight: 176 Bats: L Throws: L
Scouting Grades
ARM: 45 FLD: 50 HIT: 45 PWR: 55 RUN: 50

Stats: Did not play pro ball.

Roederer was the Cubs’ supplemental second-round pick this past year out of California’s Hart High School, and the team is excited about his future. He’s a decent center fielder with average running speed, but it’s his power at the plate that caught Chicago’s eye: He profiles out to be a 20-home-run center fielder.

179. Brailyn Marquez, LHP, Chicago Cubs
Age: 20 Height: 6-4 Weight: 188 Bats: L Throws: L
Scouting Grades
FB: 55 SLI: 45 CH: 45 CTL: 45 CMND: 40

Stats (A) W-L: 1-4 ERA: 3.13 IP: 54.2 H: 53 BB: 16 SO: 59

Marquez throws 95-97 mph from the left side with a work-in-progress breaking ball and changeup. He does not have command of his pitches yet but with mechanical adjustments and a more consistent release point that should improve over the next year or two. You certainly can’t argue the arm.

137. Nico Hoerner, SS, Chicago Cubs
Age: 21 Height: 6-1 Weight: 199 Bats: R Throws: R
Scouting Grades
ARM: 50 FLD: 45 HIT: 55 PWR: 45 RUN: 55

Stats (Rookie/A) Slash: .327/.450/1.021 2B: 2 HR: 2 BRI: 6 SB: 6

The Cubs have always been great at drafting bats; they have some of the best amateur hitting scouts in the business. Hoerner appears to be another solid one, and there’s no doubt he’s going to hit. Hoerner is average or below defensively at shortstop, where he doesn’t have ideal range, but largely makes up for it with positioning, angles and first-step quickness. He does have a solid average arm for the position.
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Re: BA, BP, Fangraphs & Keith Law's Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby David » Fri Feb 15, 2019 5:01 pm

CubsWin wrote:
The Cubs have always been great at drafting bats;


go back about 7 or 8 years and imagine this being said
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Re: BA, BP, Fangraphs & Keith Law's Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby Regular Show » Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:40 pm

CubsWin wrote:Not a fan of Jim Bowden, but FWIW he's putting out a top 200 list on The Athletic. So far, he's published 101-200. Looks like Amaya will be the only Cub in his top 100. Here are the Cubs listed thus far. (He seems to think Cole Roederer didn't play last year, so let that be an indicator of the quality of his work...)


Yeah, I saw the link for the article online, but it's from Jim Bowden so why bother?

He's a joke inside the industry. Part of the older generation of execs that nobody wants to hire anymore.
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Re: BA, BP, Fangraphs & Keith Law's Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Feb 17, 2019 9:13 pm

A couple surprises in BA’s top 30 are Luis Verdugo at 12 and Edmond Americaan at 16. They think both have more power and the defensive tools to stick at SS and CF respectively, with Americaan also having plus speed. They speculate Americaan might get a South Bend assignment, which would be nice.

Their 30 isn’t particularly daring with guys like Leal, Herron, J. Young (listed as a 1B!), and DJ Wilson feeling more like filler rather than actual prospects. I guess in most cases you’re stretching the definition of prospect to fill out this system’s 30 but, for instance, I don’t get why Mekkes couldn’t get more mention than Leal
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Re: BA, BP, Fangraphs & Keith Law's Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby David » Sun Feb 17, 2019 9:34 pm

Regular Show wrote:
CubsWin wrote:Not a fan of Jim Bowden, but FWIW he's putting out a top 200 list on The Athletic. So far, he's published 101-200. Looks like Amaya will be the only Cub in his top 100. Here are the Cubs listed thus far. (He seems to think Cole Roederer didn't play last year, so let that be an indicator of the quality of his work...)


Yeah, I saw the link for the article online, but it's from Jim Bowden so why bother?

He's a joke inside the industry. Part of the older generation of execs that nobody wants to hire anymore.

Oh thanks for letting us know
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Re: BA, BP, Fangraphs & Keith Law's Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:00 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:A couple surprises in BA’s top 30 are Luis Verdugo at 12 and Edmond Americaan at 16. They think both have more power and the defensive tools to stick at SS and CF respectively, with Americaan also having plus speed. They speculate Americaan might get a South Bend assignment, which would be nice.

Their 30 isn’t particularly daring with guys like Leal, Herron, J. Young (listed as a 1B!), and DJ Wilson feeling more like filler rather than actual prospects. I guess in most cases you’re stretching the definition of prospect to fill out this system’s 30 but, for instance, I don’t get why Mekkes couldn’t get more mention than Leal


Man, I didn’t even bother ordering the handbook this year and just realized I hadn’t. BA has really slipped.
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Re: BA, BP, Fangraphs & Keith Law's Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:07 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:A couple surprises in BA’s top 30 are Luis Verdugo at 12 and Edmond Americaan at 16. They think both have more power and the defensive tools to stick at SS and CF respectively, with Americaan also having plus speed. They speculate Americaan might get a South Bend assignment, which would be nice.

Their 30 isn’t particularly daring with guys like Leal, Herron, J. Young (listed as a 1B!), and DJ Wilson feeling more like filler rather than actual prospects. I guess in most cases you’re stretching the definition of prospect to fill out this system’s 30 but, for instance, I don’t get why Mekkes couldn’t get more mention than Leal


Man, I didn’t even bother ordering the handbook this year and just realized I hadn’t. BA has really slipped.


Yeah, even the cover felt lower quality. I don’t think it’s just BA slipping either. I didn’t have the usual fun reading through anyone’s prospect coverage this year. Maybe a mix of lots of repeats due to injuries and service time plus a horsefeathers ton of teenagers both in the Cubs system and throughout with minimal to zero playing time.

I also think everyone’s needing some time to adjust to the NFLization of the MLB as it happens
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Re: BA, BP, Fangraphs & Keith Law's Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby CubsWin » Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:19 pm

Yeah, unfortunately, Jared Young is a 1B/LFer. I don't know where else he would be listed.

The Cubs have apparently moved on from him playing 2B. He played 2 games at 2B last year, 21 in left and 81 at 1st. It's possible they did that to get his bat in the lineup more consistently (he also DH'd some), but it's not like 2B was a position loaded with good prospects in South Bend and Myrtle Beach such that they didn't want to take games away from other guys.

FWIW, the limited numbers we have for him at 2B in the minors (3.45 RF, .966 fielding %) say he's pretty much a butcher.
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Re: BA, BP, Fangraphs & Keith Law's Cubs' Top Prospects List

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:51 pm

Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel came up with a list of players they expect to make the 2020 Top 100 list. When they did this exercise before the 2018 season, they went 18 for 63.

One Cub made the list - Cole Roederer in the Under the Advanced Young Bats with Defensive Value section. I was surprised Brailyn Marquez didn't make the Teenage Pitchers section.

Also, they listed potential high-leverage relievers who might debut this year and while they might not ever be top 100 prospects, they will have a sizable impact on their team. Dakota Mekkes made this Potentially Dominant Relievers list.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-cl ... 0-top-100/
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