International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2020-2021

Postby Hrubes20 » Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:52 pm

Regular Show wrote:
I understand that system, but it feels too arbitrary...

Just like with the MLB draft, some years will have a generational talent (Wander Franco) at the very top. Why does a team in the AL Central get to pick first that year hypothetically speaking? Just random luck?

MLB doesn't like trying new, creative things and we still don't have full draft pick trading. We don't have a draft lottery. Owners care more about cost controls than promoting the game...

I doubt the system you're talking about is used for this international draft in a few years. I'm pretty certain it will function like a normal draft. Maybe MLB allows trading of draft picks, but I doubt that.


I think the complete arbitrariness (if this isn't a word, it is now) is what made it so appealing to the guy who proposed it. I can't remember who threw this out there, but it was one of the national guys. I'm obviously against the international draft as a whole, but when it inevitably happens, I would rather something like this than another draft order based solely on record. Can you imagine the tanking if there was a Harper type prospect going to be available in the draft, as well as a Jasson Dominguez prospect in a IFA draft?
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2020-2021

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:40 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
I understand that system, but it feels too arbitrary...

Just like with the MLB draft, some years will have a generational talent (Wander Franco) at the very top. Why does a team in the AL Central get to pick first that year hypothetically speaking? Just random luck?

MLB doesn't like trying new, creative things and we still don't have full draft pick trading. We don't have a draft lottery. Owners care more about cost controls than promoting the game...

I doubt the system you're talking about is used for this international draft in a few years. I'm pretty certain it will function like a normal draft. Maybe MLB allows trading of draft picks, but I doubt that.


I think the complete arbitrariness (if this isn't a word, it is now) is what made it so appealing to the guy who proposed it. I can't remember who threw this out there, but it was one of the national guys. I'm obviously against the international draft as a whole, but when it inevitably happens, I would rather something like this than another draft order based solely on record. Can you imagine the tanking if there was a Harper type prospect going to be available in the draft, as well as a Jasson Dominguez prospect in a IFA draft?


Arbitrariness is definitely a word lol.

That's why MLB needs to do a draft lottery system with pretty even odds for the bottom 6-8 teams. I mean teams are going to tank, but just don't reward the team that tanks the hardest (like Houston a few years back). Maybe add a clause that if a team picks in the top 3 in the draft then they automatically disqualify for the lottery the next year.

I'm not a fan of the international draft, but what teams are doing these days is really messed up. It makes me pretty upset when a team makes a promise to a kid and his family for big money, and then the team reneges on that handshake agreement when the 12-year old doesn't continue to improve and grow like they expected...

I don't think the Cubs have ever done that (under Theo), but plenty of other teams have.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2020-2021

Postby Hrubes20 » Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:55 pm

Regular Show wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
I understand that system, but it feels too arbitrary...

Just like with the MLB draft, some years will have a generational talent (Wander Franco) at the very top. Why does a team in the AL Central get to pick first that year hypothetically speaking? Just random luck?

MLB doesn't like trying new, creative things and we still don't have full draft pick trading. We don't have a draft lottery. Owners care more about cost controls than promoting the game...

I doubt the system you're talking about is used for this international draft in a few years. I'm pretty certain it will function like a normal draft. Maybe MLB allows trading of draft picks, but I doubt that.


I think the complete arbitrariness (if this isn't a word, it is now) is what made it so appealing to the guy who proposed it. I can't remember who threw this out there, but it was one of the national guys. I'm obviously against the international draft as a whole, but when it inevitably happens, I would rather something like this than another draft order based solely on record. Can you imagine the tanking if there was a Harper type prospect going to be available in the draft, as well as a Jasson Dominguez prospect in a IFA draft?


Arbitrariness is definitely a word lol.

That's why MLB needs to do a draft lottery system with pretty even odds for the bottom 6-8 teams. I mean teams are going to tank, but just don't reward the team that tanks the hardest (like Houston a few years back). Maybe add a clause that if a team picks in the top 3 in the draft then they automatically disqualify for the lottery the next year.

I'm not a fan of the international draft, but what teams are doing these days is really messed up. It makes me pretty upset when a team makes a promise to a kid and his family for big money, and then the team reneges on that handshake agreement when the 12-year old doesn't continue to improve and grow like they expected...

I don't think the Cubs have ever done that (under Theo), but plenty of other teams have.


A lottery would also be a really good idea, IMO.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2020-2021

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:32 pm

This is at least half playing devil's advocate, but I think you can make the argument that you should order based on record, but reverse the order for non-playoff teams(best non-playoff team drafts #1, worst record drafts 18th). The thinking being:

- Both the current draft and IFA are investments in long term success, a team's outlook for at least the next 2 years has very little to do with their draft pick except in rare circumstances. The team with the worst record in year 1 has a similar ability to improve in year 2 whether they draft 1st or 15th(heck the draft isn't until after the ensuing offseason happens anyway)
- In a world with draft pools(which I'll assume as a practical exercise are here to stay) draft position carries extra meaning because it's not just the difference between drafting 4th and 2nd, it's the difference in the money that can get spread across many players. If you have draft pools, you need to change the incentive to maximize them. By flipping the record order, you force people to make their MLB teams better and more watchable in the short term if they also want to have the maximum chance to make the team better in the long term. Crucially, this is not an either/or financial proposition because higher draft pools are a drop in the bucket financially.
- This has the knock on effect of making MLB free agency more competitive. Teams right now can spend nothing on the MLB team, cycle through cheap roster flotsam to try to unearth an asset or two(think Valbuena and Coghlan from the Cubs rebuild), but remain bad enough to maximize their prospect spending to get a wave of prospects worth supplementing with free agents or high contract trades. If teams are incentivized to make their short term fortunes better in order to maximize their long term futures, then prices rise for that FA lower/middle class that has recently taken a big hit.
- The MLB draft and IFA are still lotteries in their own right so even a team doing their best and still failing miserably can still draft/sign smartly and improve their fortunes. Plenty of valuable and even star players come outside the Top 5 so you aren't resigning a bad team to an indefinite fate of being terrible. Plus they can always just go into Dombrowski mode and use any prospects as currency until they're able to get out of the hole somewhat.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2020-2021

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:43 pm

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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2020-2021

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:56 pm

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“I think when we got our first look at him—and, to be honest, with the comps that are being thrown around—he looks like A-Rod,” said an international scouting director with a team that does not expect to sign Hernandez. “He’s a baby A-Rod.”

...

“You can easily project (his power) to plus. The ball really comes off his bat well. It’s a clean, easy swing with power to the middle of the field,” the international director said. “His body, from the time we first started watching him, to when he committed, to the videos I’ve seen since then, he hasn’t gotten much bigger or stronger.

“That being said, just the way the ball comes off the bat and the way the swing path comes through the zone, it’s really easy to project power. I’d call it plus in the future.”

...

“The lack of projection in the body over a one-to-two-year window, it probably points to him sticking at shortstop. It probably points to him growing a couple of inches, adding on a little weight and looking like a middle infielder more than a third baseman,” the international director said. “I don’t have any concerns about him slowing down or being forced to move to third base.

“When we were initially projecting him, you obviously throw the A-Rod body comp on him, and you kind of expect him to grow into his body and get a little bit bigger, and that hasn’t happened yet.”
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2020-2021

Postby CubsWin » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:54 am

“When we were initially projecting him, you obviously throw the A-Rod body comp on him, and you kind of expect him to grow into his body and get a little bit bigger, and that hasn’t happened yet.”

Well, you know, Cristian hasn't met Victor Conte over at BALCO yet, so...
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2020-2021

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:20 am



Somehow the owners flaunting the rules to get their draft? Possibly!
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2020-2021

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:36 am

FYI - Venezuelan prospects like Colmenarez who haven’t signed yet have permission to stay at their future team’s complexes due to safety concerns in their native country.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2020-2021

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:42 pm

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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:01 pm



This guy is 16?! What are they feeding these kids
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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Aug 06, 2020 4:01 pm

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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:56 am

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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby Named After Maddux » Sat Aug 22, 2020 4:30 am

Cristian Hernandez shared this photo on InstagramImage
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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:33 am

Good read on how little success there has been giving big bonuses to J2 pitchers:

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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Sep 08, 2020 4:08 am



Looks interesting

https://peloterosintl.com/?p=756

At a young age, Ballesteros has already established a reputation as a gifted hitter with natural loft in his swing capable of producing big-time power. He’s also shown a knack to produce home runs and extra base hits in games. Behind the plate, he has arm strength and utilizes a quick transfer to throw out runners attempting to steal bases. He has smooth actions and blocking skills for a 5’11, 215 lb., mature-bodied kid, though he may eventually physically outgrow the position necessitating a move to first base. Scouts do report he’s done a lot of work on leaning up his body in order to improve his athleticism and agility. He will need to continue to do so as he matures physically in the coming years. The assistance of both strength & conditioning and sports nutrition programs available to him in professional baseball should significantly help him in this regard.

It is expected that Ballesteros will receive a signing bonus amount in the $1.0 to 1.2 million range when he eventually signs


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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:07 pm



At this point, though, other than some of the Cuban players, most of the top international players who are eligible to sign on Jan. 15, 2021 (the new start of the 2020-21 signing period that was delayed from July 2 this year) already know where they're going to sign.

One player still showcasing for clubs is 16-year-old Dominican righthander Jarlin Susana, who pitched in a game in front of scouts in Santo Domingo this week. Susana made a loud impression, sitting in the low-to-mid 90s and reaching 96 mph. He's 6-foot-5, 195 pounds with more physical projection remaining, and he paired his fastball with a sharp breaking ball.


Mets and Dodgers amongst teams with a high scouting preference after he popped up.

Not sure the Cubs have much left for a pop up guy since they have somewhere between $4.2-$5 million already set aside or Hernandez and Ballesteros and teams like the Cardinals and White Sox have a lot left for pop ups and Cuban defectors.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:17 pm

He's a 16 YO pitcher so whatever but this guy's frame and delivery could be special if he survives the whole being a teenaged pro pitcher thing without stiffening up too much:

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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:31 am

MLBTR wrote:16-year-old Cuban outfielder Luis Pino worked out for scouts this week in the Dominican Republic, and ESPN.com’s Enrique Rojas (Spanish language link) reports that the Athletics and Rays are the favorites to land Pino when the international signing window opens on January 15. The Giants, Cubs, White Sox, Red Sox and Padres have also shown interest in Pino, who seems likely to command a bonus of $1MM or more.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:12 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
MLBTR wrote:16-year-old Cuban outfielder Luis Pino worked out for scouts this week in the Dominican Republic, and ESPN.com’s Enrique Rojas (Spanish language link) reports that the Athletics and Rays are the favorites to land Pino when the international signing window opens on January 15. The Giants, Cubs, White Sox, Red Sox and Padres have also shown interest in Pino, who seems likely to command a bonus of $1MM or more.


We only have approximate dollar amounts on the 50 biggest bonuses already agreed upon so this information is incomplete but based on that, it appears the Cubs can’t hang with the 6 other teams. The other 6 all have way more than $1 million in bonus space while the Cubs have approximately $650k-$1 million left (and that’s based on us only knowing Hernandez and Ballesteros’ approximate bonuses and not knowing how much other guys they’re expected to sign like Daniel Ferreira will get).
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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby Hrubes20 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:55 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
MLBTR wrote:16-year-old Cuban outfielder Luis Pino worked out for scouts this week in the Dominican Republic, and ESPN.com’s Enrique Rojas (Spanish language link) reports that the Athletics and Rays are the favorites to land Pino when the international signing window opens on January 15. The Giants, Cubs, White Sox, Red Sox and Padres have also shown interest in Pino, who seems likely to command a bonus of $1MM or more.


We only have approximate dollar amounts on the 50 biggest bonuses already agreed upon so this information is incomplete but based on that, it appears the Cubs can’t hang with the 6 other teams. The other 6 all have way more than $1 million in bonus space while the Cubs have approximately $650k-$1 million left (and that’s based on us only knowing Hernandez and Ballesteros’ approximate bonuses and not knowing how much other guys they’re expected to sign like Daniel Ferreira will get).


Did they make any changes for next year on the amount of space that could be acquired, or is it still up to 60% of the original bonus pool? Certainly not impossible if they fall in love with the kid.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:06 am

Hrubes20 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:


We only have approximate dollar amounts on the 50 biggest bonuses already agreed upon so this information is incomplete but based on that, it appears the Cubs can’t hang with the 6 other teams. The other 6 all have way more than $1 million in bonus space while the Cubs have approximately $650k-$1 million left (and that’s based on us only knowing Hernandez and Ballesteros’ approximate bonuses and not knowing how much other guys they’re expected to sign like Daniel Ferreira will get).


Did they make any changes for next year on the amount of space that could be acquired, or is it still up to 60% of the original bonus pool? Certainly not impossible if they fall in love with the kid.


You can’t trade for space in the 2021 class.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:24 pm



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Re: International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 4:13 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
We only have approximate dollar amounts on the 50 biggest bonuses already agreed upon so this information is incomplete but based on that, it appears the Cubs can’t hang with the 6 other teams. The other 6 all have way more than $1 million in bonus space while the Cubs have approximately $650k-$1 million left (and that’s based on us only knowing Hernandez and Ballesteros’ approximate bonuses and not knowing how much other guys they’re expected to sign like Daniel Ferreira will get).


Did they make any changes for next year on the amount of space that could be acquired, or is it still up to 60% of the original bonus pool? Certainly not impossible if they fall in love with the kid.


You can’t trade for space in the 2021 class.


And I learned something today. I had no idea they took away the ability to trade for IFA space when the signing date was pushed back.
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Re: International Free Agency Thread 2020-2021

Postby CubinNY » Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:22 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:


“I think when we got our first look at him—and, to be honest, with the comps that are being thrown around—he looks like A-Rod,” said an international scouting director with a team that does not expect to sign Hernandez. “He’s a baby A-Rod.”

...

“You can easily project (his power) to plus. The ball really comes off his bat well. It’s a clean, easy swing with power to the middle of the field,” the international director said. “His body, from the time we first started watching him, to when he committed, to the videos I’ve seen since then, he hasn’t gotten much bigger or stronger.

“That being said, just the way the ball comes off the bat and the way the swing path comes through the zone, it’s really easy to project power. I’d call it plus in the future.”

...

“The lack of projection in the body over a one-to-two-year window, it probably points to him sticking at shortstop. It probably points to him growing a couple of inches, adding on a little weight and looking like a middle infielder more than a third baseman,” the international director said. “I don’t have any concerns about him slowing down or being forced to move to third base.

“When we were initially projecting him, you obviously throw the A-Rod body comp on him, and you kind of expect him to grow into his body and get a little bit bigger, and that hasn’t happened yet.”

So did the Cubs sign this kid?
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