Offseason Top Prospect Lists

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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Feb 17, 2020 2:45 pm

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-top-100-prospects/

ZiPS Top 100 prospects:

14. Miguel Amaya
38. Brennen Davis
53. Nico Hoerner
58. Cory Abbott
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby Bertz » Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:26 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-top-100-prospects/

ZiPS Top 100 prospects:

14. Miguel Amaya
38. Brennen Davis
53. Nico Hoerner
58. Cory Abbott


Funny what kind of extra credit Amaya gets when park factors get more explicitly into account. Also glad to see continued helium for Abbott. We kinda need him, Alzolay, or Miller to be a guy worth handing a rotation spot to a year from now.

Also thought it was funny that he mentions Arismendy Alcantara as the biggest bust in his history doing these lists.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:45 pm

Abbott's really been picking up steam "the right way" this off-season, projections love him and even BA threw him into their top 10. The combo makes him extremely valuable to the Cubs. Earlier in the off-season I was curious to see how he'd be viewed, now I think he's legit appealing in a bigger trade (kinda reads like an Indians style pitcher cough) or maybe the best bet among the MiLers to not suck if given some starts

ZiPs makes me feel less crazy for saying some things said about Amaya, haven't really seen other projections
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby craig » Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:58 am

I finally saw BA's top 30, and was somewhat surprised/curious.

They have Chris Clarke at #14, much to my surprise, and ahead of McAvene. McAvene was drafted a round earlier, has seemingly a big arm and some high-end stuff, and he pitched very well in his brief pro debut. (McAvene was 20K/4BB/12.2IP, encouraging numbers.) Clarke's numbers were excellent, too (26K/4BB/20IP), but I don't recall him getting as extensive BA attention pre or after draft, so I woudn't have expected BA to have heard enough buzz about him to have him leapfrog McAvene.

tom or others, what kind of comments did they have about Clarke? After bombing the Lange/Little draft, it would be so awesome if they ended up with a really good draft that produced several successful and significant prospects.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby Post Count Padder » Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:07 pm

Yeah so what 2021 rotation as it stands would be Hendricks, Lester, Darvish and two of Mills/Alzolay/Abbot/Miller ?
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:37 pm

Post Count Padder wrote:Yeah so what 2021 rotation as it stands would be Hendricks, Lester, Darvish and two of Mills/Alzolay/Abbot/Miller ?


Brailyn

Maybe Keegan Thompson or Justin Steele but I think injuries have sapped any meaningful chance of them starting in the majors.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:40 pm

craig wrote:I finally saw BA's top 30, and was somewhat surprised/curious.

They have Chris Clarke at #14, much to my surprise, and ahead of McAvene. McAvene was drafted a round earlier, has seemingly a big arm and some high-end stuff, and he pitched very well in his brief pro debut. (McAvene was 20K/4BB/12.2IP, encouraging numbers.) Clarke's numbers were excellent, too (26K/4BB/20IP), but I don't recall him getting as extensive BA attention pre or after draft, so I woudn't have expected BA to have heard enough buzz about him to have him leapfrog McAvene.

tom or others, what kind of comments did they have about Clarke? After bombing the Lange/Little draft, it would be so awesome if they ended up with a really good draft that produced several successful and significant prospects.


Clarke has 4-seam and sinker, both low-to-mid 90s plus a spike curve which was one of the best in the draft. Has the makings of a back-end rotation piece or a late inning reliever.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby Regular Show » Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:19 pm

From the latest Klaw chat:

My top 100 prospects ranking goes up on Monday, 2/24, at The Athletic.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:26 pm

ZiPs thinks Miguel Amaya could be a starting caliber C, top ten at the position even, by 2022:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.a ... &players=0
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby craig » Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:29 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:...Clarke has 4-seam and sinker, both low-to-mid 90s plus a spike curve which was one of the best in the draft. Has the makings of a back-end rotation piece or a late inning reliever.


Thanks, Cal, that sounds interesting. One of the reasons I'm interested in Clarke is that he's still only 21. Sometimes the tall long guys haven't fully optimized their deliveries at age 21, so might be hypothetical projection left. But his control has been good, which is unusual for the 6'7" guys at his age. Hopefully his stuff will continue to improve some, and his command, and he'll end up being better than back-end starter. Given how little he's pitched in college, I'd imagine the Cubs might be kinda patient with him and won't move him too quickly. On the other hand, if he's coordinated and can repeat his delivery enough to be a low-walks guy already, maybe he'll move along faster than I anticipate...
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby craig » Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:31 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Post Count Padder wrote:Yeah so what 2021 rotation as it stands would be Hendricks, Lester, Darvish and two of Mills/Alzolay/Abbot/Miller ?


Brailyn

Maybe Keegan Thompson or Justin Steele but I think injuries have sapped any meaningful chance of them starting in the majors.


Heh heh, maybe Chatwood will be good and solid, and the Cubs will do a mid-year extension on him? :):)
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby craig » Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:33 pm

Or maybe Chatwood will be so good and so solid that the Cubs will offer the 1-year contract, and get a draft pick back if they don't keep him?

Spring training. Why not be super optimistic, yes?
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby MidoreX » Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:20 pm

Regular Show wrote:From the latest Klaw chat:

My top 100 prospects ranking goes up on Monday, 2/24, at The Athletic.


Only 2 Cubs... Davis at 55 and Marquez at 80
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby Bertz » Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:27 pm

I still would have expected Nico to make the list, but not totally surprising that neither he nor Amaya did given that Keith weights upside and loud tools even more than most. Taken straight from the intro:

I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn’t as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars, and after that I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won’t reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby Regular Show » Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:53 am

MidoreX wrote:
Regular Show wrote:From the latest Klaw chat:

My top 100 prospects ranking goes up on Monday, 2/24, at The Athletic.


Only 2 Cubs... Davis at 55 and Marquez at 80




Yeah, I'm studying the list and I disagree with a good amount of it. I don't normally have too many problems with his list, but this year seems different:

Adley Rutschman is way too low (#10) and he has a strong case to be the #1 prospect in MLB. He has an MVP-caliber upside with a stronger chance to reach it than most players with that high a ceiling.

Casey Mize is a weird case. If he's fully healthy and throwing the ball with no problems then he's too low on the list. If he's injured or not throwing at 100% then he should probably be lower.

⚫ I think Jesus Luzardo should be higher. I really like him and think he'll develop into an ace.

⚫ Keith Law is definitely the high guy on Corbin Carroll lol. We'll see about that ranking...

⚫ I like what he wrote about Alec Bohm and I agree with that assessment.

Joey Bart is too high on the list.

Brennen Davis is too high on his list. I'm still skeptical about the hit tool, but the swing is better now.

Marco Luciano is too low and he'll finish very high on Top 100 lists at the end of this upcoming season.

Brailyn Marquez is too low on his list and I'm very high on him. I think he takes a big step forward this year.

⚫ Obviously, I'm very happy with his writeup on Braden Shewmake and agree with his take:

Shewmake is trying to do something we seldom see in pro ball — move to shortstop from another position as a player drafted out of college. Paul DeJong did it, but he’s the only major-league shortstop to do so in the last five years. Shewmake was a good defensive third baseman at Texas A&M with a promising hit tool, leading Atlanta to take him with the 21st overall pick in June, but their decision to move him to a more difficult position was a surprise — and the early returns are fantastic, as opposing scouts who saw him think he can stay there. His approach now is geared towards contact, but he has 60 raw power and the thinking is that he can get to that in time as he adjusts to pro ball. Atlanta sent him right to Low-A Rome out of the draft, and he responded by hitting .318/.389/.473 with just a 12.8 percent strikeout rate, incredibly impressive for a player who had just spent all spring hitting with a tin bat against college pitching. He might end up an absolute steal between his promise of future plus defense at short and the outside chance he gets to that plus raw power in games.


I'm not sure if I'd rather have Shewmake over Hoerner or have him ranked higher though? I don't know about that and I guess how much power (game power) they develop will be the key difference. I think Shewmake is better defensively at SS and is capable of making more throws/plays. Honestly, I'm growing more intrigued with just shifting Hoerner to CF and letting him play there the majority of the time. Hoerner is definitely more versatile. I believe most teams would have Hoerner ranked higher than Shewmake, but it's probably pretty close now.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby Regular Show » Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:45 am


Nico Hoerner didn't make this list either lol.

I'm a big fan of Noah Song as well, but his unique situation makes his pitching development kinda murky. He has a special arm and I wish the Cubs drafted him.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby Regular Show » Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:40 am



He's starting to release his prospect lists for each team. We might get the Cubs prospect list for Fangraphs and The Athletic around the same time.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:45 am

Pinango was BA's 10th ranked DSL prospect, Morel 12th:

10. Yohendrick Pinango, OF, Cubs

Born: May 7, 2002. B-T: L-L. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 175. Signed: Venezuela, 2018.

Pinango was one of the best pure hitters in the DSL, ranking fourth in the league in batting average and striking out in just seven percent of his plate appearances. Signed for $400,000 in 2018, Pinango has excellent hand-eye coordination, which shows up both in his high contact rate and ability to control the strike zone. Pinango didn't hit any home runs in his debut, but he has a fairly strong and physical yet compact frame and makes hard contact, with his 20 doubles tied for second in the DSL. He can hit balls out in BP but his approach in games is to put the ball in play and spread the ball around the field, staying inside the ball well and especially shooting the ball to left field and center. If he gains a better understanding of which pitches to try to pull for damage and get more lift in his swing, more power should show up. Pinango is also a plus runner whose 27 stolen bases tied him for eighth in the league. He runs well enough to handle center field now, though given his body type, it's probable that he ends up either in left or right field.


12. Rafael Morel, SS, Cubs

Born: Nov. 22, 2001. B-T: R-R. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 165. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2018.

The Cubs paid $800,000 to sign Dominican infielder Christopher Morel in 2015 when he was 16. Three years later, they signed his brother, Rafael, for $850,000. The son of a former professional basketball player in the Dominican Republic, Rafael is a quick-twitch athlete who impressed the Cubs as an amateur with his hitting ability. Some scouts with other clubs considered Morel more of a raw athlete, but he rewarded the Cubs' conviction with a strong offensive debut. He did a bit of everything in the DSL, showcasing a mix of hitting ability, power and speed all at a premium position. Morel has quick hands, good bat speed and puts an impressive charge into the ball. There are times he gets too pull-conscious and gets off balance, but when he's in sync and on time, he makes hard contact and shows potential for average power and could grow into 20-plus home runs. He's a plus runner with a plus arm who some scouts thought might fit better in center field, but he enhanced his chances to stay at shortstop last year. He has the hands, arm, first-step quickness and ability to read hops for the position, with improved footwork helping his development in 2019.


Pinango's the 6th youngest on the list and the lone LHH
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:13 pm

Keith Law has his MLB top farms list. Has the Cubs at 28 with only Washington and Milwaukee below them. He's the only one who hasn't ranked them in the 15-22 range this year.

Some other rankings that don't match the general consensus like Detroit at 19 and Oakland at 26 (too low) and he's much higher than most on NYY at 6 and the Cardinals at 9.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby Regular Show » Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:40 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Keith Law has his MLB top farms list. Has the Cubs at 28 with only Washington and Milwaukee below him. He's the only one who hasn't ranked them in the 15-22 range this year.

Some other rankings that don't match the general consensus like Detroit at 19 and Oakland at 26 (too low) and he's much higher than most on NYY at 6 and the Cardinals at 9.


Yeah, it's weird he has the Yankees' system so high. I knew the Cubs' system would rank pretty low on his list, but not quite this low and I disagree with that ranking. I would place it around 20th or maybe a little back of there... We know he's down on Nico Hoerner and Miguel Amaya, and doesn't have them on his Top 100 prospect list.

The second episode of his podcast is out and he discusses his farm system rankings (I haven't listened to it yet). The NL Central lists comes out on Wednesday so we'll get to see his thoughts on the Cubs prospects pretty soon.

EDIT: Yeah, so Keith Law doesn't actually discuss his farm system rankings in the second episode of his podcast lol. Mainly just talks about the #1 farm system (TB Rays) on his list and answers some questions at the end.
Last edited by Regular Show on Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:42 am

Oakland at 26 is wild. Luzard, Puk, Murphy, and Mateo alone should have them higher
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby Regular Show » Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:00 pm


The list is weird with some big omissions like Kevin Made and Ronnier Quintero. I know he's ranked 20th on his list, but people inside (and outside) the Cubs organization are not that high on Oscar De La Cruz. That was a dumb choice and I would've place DJ Herz on the list somewhere.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:02 pm

Regular Show wrote:
The list is weird with some big omissions like Kevin Made and Ronnier Quintero. I know he's ranked 20th on his list, but people inside (and outside) the Cubs organization are not that high on Oscar De La Cruz. That was a dumb choice and I would've place DJ Herz on the list somewhere.


Strumpf at 17 is pretty wild too.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:14 pm

MLB Pipeline's top 30 Cubs prospects:

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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby Bertz » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:33 pm

MLB's looks closer to what I would consider "right." That's understandable, the blessing and the curse of Keith Law's work is that he's just one dude, so he's inherently going to be more outlier-y.

Also, Jim Callis is the best at this and has been for a long time, so that doesn't hurt.
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