Bertz wrote:...the blessing and the curse of Keith Law's work is that he's just one dude....
In processing his input, it means more to me for guys that he's seen, maybe a lot, than guys he hasn't. That Made and Quintero and Herz aren't included, I don't care at all. He's never seen those guys, so his lack of appreciation for them doesn't bother me. **IF** they turn out to be talented, then when they get far enough for him to see them, he'll probably appreciate them then.
Strumpf, Alzolay, Amaya, those are guys he HAS seen, probably more than once. So the observation that Alzolay's fastball is "flat", or that Strumf has some mechanical issues with his swing that will be problematic if unfixed, those may be good observations that are worth taking seriously.
But yeah, his rankings are often impacted by small-sample or dated info. He mentioned having watched McAvene once, last spring. Not clear that the "effort" that he saw in the delivery (I don't doubt his observation...) was true that time, but might not be there every day, and might not persist after some developmental adjustments.
Likewise he alludes to Riley Thompson hitting 100 out of pen and up to 97 in rotation. That seems like info from 2-3 springs ago. Reports from this year seemed to have good velocity, but mostly low-90's, nothing extraordinary. (Although whatever; I'm sure any guy who normally works 91-94 will unleash a fluke 97 once in a while! But in a scouting report, listing 100-in-relief-97-in-rotation kinda suggests big velocity...)