2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

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2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 19, 2020 8:14 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Since FG placed FV ratings on their draft board and top IFA prospects, we can get an idea where Eric Longehangen would rate the Cubs new draft picks and Christian Hernández.

1. Ed Howard: 45+ FV
2020 July 2: Christian Hernández: 45
2. Burl Carraway: 40+
3. Jordan Nwogu: 35+
4. Luke Little: 35+
5. Koen Moreno: 35+

The Cubs only have one 45+ FV (Adbert Alzolay at 5) so Howard would come in at 5th or 6th in an updated ranking. The Cubs have one 45 FV prospect (Cole Roederer at 6, though we'd knock Roederer to 7 with the inclusion of Howard) so Hernández would be 7th or 8th. The Cubs have five 40+ FV (Chase Strumpf at 7, Ryan Jensen 8, Kohl Franklin 9, Cory Abbot 10 and Christopher Morel at 11; we'd have to knock each of them down two spots for the additions of Howard and Hernández), so Carraway would rank somewhere between 9-14. The Cubs have twelve 35+ prospects from 30-41 so Nwogu, Little and Moreno would slot in somewhere in that group.

For ease, I slotted each of the new prospects at the top of their FV groups:

1. Nico Hoerner - 50 FV
2. Brennen Davis - 50
3. Miguel Amaya - 50
4. Brailyn Márquez - 50
5. Ed Howard - 45+
6. Adbert Alzolay - 45+
7. Christian Hernández - 45
8. Cole Roederer - 45
9. Burl Carraway - 40+
10. Chase Strumpf - 40+
11. Ryan Jensen - 40+
12. Kohl Franklin - 40+
13. Cory Abbott - 40+
14. Christopher Morel - 40+




Ed Howard drops in at 5 (sandwiched between Brailyn and Adbert), Burl Carraway at 11 (between Kohl Franklin and Cory Abbott), Luke Little at 38, Jordan Nwogu at 40 and Keon Moreno at 43.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby Regular Show » Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:06 am


Jim Callis will probably place Ed Howard 5th in our system behind Miguel Amaya and ahead of Cole Roederer.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:51 pm

BA released their midseason top 30 lists, which primarily just added in new draft picks.

Ed Howard came in at 6 [behind, in order, Márquez, Hoerner, Davis, Amaya and Strumpf (??)], Burl Carraway 12, Koen Moreno was 18 and Jordan Nwogu 19.

Christopher Morel was the only other guy to move (probably for making South Bend’s roster), going from 27 in the offseason to 21.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:49 pm

Thanks CR. Did you catch where Quintero ranked? I think he was somewhere between 12-18 during preseason

I like that Strumpf ranking? He's got some of the best game power in the system, has a shot to play a good 2B with some versatility, takes walks...

OTOH Burl Carraway at 12 put this hook into my head:



There aren't 11 prospects better than him in this system and I actually like this system
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:32 pm

On MLB Pipeline, Jim Callis wrote this:

I can't reveal exactly when MLB Pipeline will unveil its updated Top 100 Prospects and organization Top 30 lists, but I can tell you to look for them early next week. And I can share that 13 players from the 2020 Draft will crack the Top 100.


I listened to a podcast a while back with Jim Callis (I can't remember which one now...) and he's very high on both Ed Howard and Burl Carraway. I believe Ed Howard will be ranked 4th on the Cubs list ahead of Miguel Amaya when they update it. I think he also said he'd place Burl Carraway 6th or 7th on the list and that he thinks Ryan Jensen probably ends up being a reliever. If both end up being relievers he has Carraway ahead of Jensen. I believe that's what he said, but I need to go back and double-check. I mean we'll see the changes next week.
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:08 pm



26. Brennen Davis
34. Nico Hoerner
125. Brailyn Marquez
135. Miguel Amaya
140. Ed Howard
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Re: Offseason Top Prospect Lists

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:46 pm

Seems fine for Cubs

Tyler Stephenson all the way down to 177 is like 100+ spots too low...Casas is too low at 80...I'm not against bumping Alek Thomas and Perdomo from the DBacks up...Singer too low, Bubic too...I like the aggressive ranking (105)for Hudson Head...Paredes at 134 which comeonnow
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:29 am

Updated MLB Pipeline top 100: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

56. Hoerner
76. Márquez
86. Davis
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:31 am

I'm all about switch hitters up the middle but give me Torkelson at #1...Mize works as the #1 arm too, feel like he is back over Manning with the shutdown...not enough Paredes...Didn't even mean to promote the Tigers in this post but Riley Green could be right behind Kelenic on that list and I'd agree, Bleday too...I might put Lacy as a top 20 prospect in baseball right now...I feel very good about Davis and Howard, think Howard isn't so far off Groshans but with a better shot to play SS...DL Hall should be alot higher....I feel like Kyle Wright is a guy the Cubs can turn around...Tyler Stephenson still getting snubbed, throw Kyle Muller, Josh Lowe, Braden Shewmake, Alejandro Kirk, Corbin Carroll, David Peterson, Bubic, in as prospects who can hang with most of that list
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby Regular Show » Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:00 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Updated MLB Pipeline top 100: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

56. Hoerner
76. Márquez
86. Davis


Updated Cubs Top 30 prospects list:

5. Ed Howard
11. Burl Carraway
21. Jordan Nwogu

I thought Ed Howard would be one spot higher, but I guess Jim Callis changed his mind. Same thing with Burl Carraway. I don't think Luke Little is that close to joining the list. Jim Callis seems pretty down on him right now.
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby Regular Show » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:13 pm


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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:24 pm



Cubs are up to 21, 1 spot higher than their preseason ranking.

21
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Chicago Cubs

2020 Preseason: 22 |2019 Midseason: 29 | 2019 Preseason: 29 | 2018: 28 | 2017: 16 | 2016: 20 | 2015: 1 | 2014: 4

Top 100 prospects (2): LHP Brailyn Marquez (39), SS/2B Nico Hoerner (42)

The Skinny: Slowly but surely, Chicago’s system is improving. Breakout seasons from Brailyn Marquez and Brennen Davis in 2019 boosted its stock before the year, and the group got a talent injection from this year’s draft class. The draft group was led by SS Ed Howard, whom BA ranked as the No. 20 prospect available, and flanked by intriguing prospects like LHP Burl Carraway, RHP Koen Moreno, OF Jordan Nwogu and LHP Luke Little.
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:38 pm

Not sure why he didn't make the updated top 30 but MLB.com went with Alfonso Rivas as the Cubs' top unranked prospect:

Cubs: Alfonso Rivas, 1B/OF

The Cubs liked Rivas' hitting ability and hoped to draft him out of Arizona in 2018, only to have the Athletics take him in the fourth round. Acquired in a January trade for Tony Kemp, he could unlock more power if he alters his swing path and drive more balls in the air. He has more athleticism and arm strength than most first basemen.
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:56 pm

Nico graduated from prospect status today.
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby Post Count Padder » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:46 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Not sure why he didn't make the updated top 30 but MLB.com went with Alfonso Rivas as the Cubs' top unranked prospect:

Cubs: Alfonso Rivas, 1B/OF

The Cubs liked Rivas' hitting ability and hoped to draft him out of Arizona in 2018, only to have the Athletics take him in the fourth round. Acquired in a January trade for Tony Kemp, he could unlock more power if he alters his swing path and drive more balls in the air. He has more athleticism and arm strength than most first basemen.

And slides into the MLB top 30 with Nico graduating
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:49 pm

With Nico graduating, Brennen moves into BA’s top 100. He was already on FG and MLB’s top 100 lists.

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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:10 pm

DJ Herz was added to the MLB Pipeline Cubs Top 30 after Zack Short was traded away.
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:30 pm

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-midseason ... s-rankings

26. Chicago Cubs
2020 preseason rank: 23
2019 midseason rank: unranked
2019 preseason rank: unranked
Top 100 Prospects: Brailyn Marquez, LHP (No. 72), Brennen Davis, OF (No. 82)

The Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer regime has excelled at producing hitters while struggling to develop pitchers, though Marquez could be a potential frontline starter.


26th!!! Dammit, Theo
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:23 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-midseason-farm-systems-rankings

26. Chicago Cubs
2020 preseason rank: 23
2019 midseason rank: unranked
2019 preseason rank: unranked
Top 100 Prospects: Brailyn Marquez, LHP (No. 72), Brennen Davis, OF (No. 82)

The Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer regime has excelled at producing hitters while struggling to develop pitchers, though Marquez could be a potential frontline starter.


26th!!! Dammit, Theo


FG has them at 24th. Obviously a little bit of the drop is related to Nico’s graduation but I suspect they’ll move up 2 spots in the next few weeks at the expense of the Angels and A’s when Adell, Luzardo and Murphy graduate.
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:22 am



In what has largely been a lost year for player development, outfielder Brennen Davis had gotten more than 100 live at-bats at the Cubs’ alternate training site in South Bend, Ind. Davis returned to the same facility where he played low Class A ball last season, but he isn’t exactly repeating a level.

The Cubs wanted Davis, 20, in their 60-man player pool so he could maintain a strength and conditioning program, develop a routine and learn from others who had already reached the majors. The same logic applied with Christopher Morel, 21, who played with Davis in South Bend last year. Davis isn’t on the big league radar for this season, but he could be the future center fielder at Wrigley Field.

“We always say let the game teach you,” Cubs senior director of player development Matt Dorey said. “That’s the best teaching, and he’s had that.

"He’s faced major league, up-down, upper-level arms every time out. They’ve faced him a lot as well, so they know where to attack him. That’s the beautiful part of hitting, just trying to make consistent adjustments, and knowing how guys are trying to get you out, and how do you counterbalance that with your approach?”

Davis—a 2018 second-rounder from Basha High in Gilbert, Ariz.—opened eyes with his athleticism and performance in 50 Midwest League games (.907 OPS) last season. In a normal year he might have made it to Double-A Tennessee by now.

The Cubs have a strong track record with young hitters and believe the 6-foot-4, 175-pound Davis will benefit from the exposure to their coaches on the ground in South Bend.

“This is a grind,” Dorey said. “Just worry about the things you can control, and try to flush bad at-bats or a lack of performance, and really focus in on the next pitch you see or the next drill that we prescribe. Try to control that—and dominate that—and not worry so much about failure and other things you can’t control.”



CUBBYHOLE

— Righthander Adbert Alzolay impressed club officials with the way he trained during baseball’s shutdown. He reported to camp in great shape and embraced all the resources the Cubs offered at the South Bend site. Alzolay, once a highly regarded pitching prospect who hadn’t put it all together yet, took advantage of the opportunity when the Cubs needed a starter for an Aug. 19 doubleheader at Wrigley Field. Alzolay gave up one unearned run in five innings against the Cardinals, showing that he could be an X-factor in September.

Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein put it this way: “We told him, ‘You should be really proud of yourself. In the middle of a global pandemic, you added a different fastball variant. You firmed up your breaking ball. You’re now essentially a five-pitch guy after being like a two-and-a-half-pitch guy last year.’ ”


— The Cubs have used the South Bend training camp as a kind of laboratory for a pitching program that had already undergone an offseason overhaul. Righthander Tyson Miller, who bought into the organization’s analytics movement last year, used the alternate site as a springboard to make his big league debut in 2020 and better position himself for the future, which is clouded by all the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19.

“Tyson (has) very unique movement to his pitches,” Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said. “But everything for the most part moved glove side. His cutter, curveball, slider, cut-changeup—all those things were moving away from a righthanded hitter. One thing we wanted to just keep in mind and work on to round out his repertoire was to have things that could actually move arm side—a two-seam fastball and more of a two-seam changeup—(to) make him a little less predictable.”
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Sep 08, 2020 4:17 am



After about 10 days, the Cubs once again have three top 100 prospects.

69. Brailyn Márquez
79. Brennen Davis
100. Miguel Amaya
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby CubinNY » Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:30 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/baseballamerica/status/1293578162627063810?s=21

Cubs are up to 21, 1 spot higher than their preseason ranking.

21
Last: 22

Chicago Cubs

2020 Preseason: 22 |2019 Midseason: 29 | 2019 Preseason: 29 | 2018: 28 | 2017: 16 | 2016: 20 | 2015: 1 | 2014: 4

Top 100 prospects (2): LHP Brailyn Marquez (39), SS/2B Nico Hoerner (42)

The Skinny: Slowly but surely, Chicago’s system is improving. Breakout seasons from Brailyn Marquez and Brennen Davis in 2019 boosted its stock before the year, and the group got a talent injection from this year’s draft class. The draft group was led by SS Ed Howard, whom BA ranked as the No. 20 prospect available, and flanked by intriguing prospects like LHP Burl Carraway, RHP Koen Moreno, OF Jordan Nwogu and LHP Luke Little.

How do the Dodgers do it?
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Re: 2020 Midseason (FWIW) Top Prospect Lists

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:15 pm

CubinNY wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/baseballamerica/status/1293578162627063810?s=21

Cubs are up to 21, 1 spot higher than their preseason ranking.

21
Last: 22

Chicago Cubs

2020 Preseason: 22 |2019 Midseason: 29 | 2019 Preseason: 29 | 2018: 28 | 2017: 16 | 2016: 20 | 2015: 1 | 2014: 4

Top 100 prospects (2): LHP Brailyn Marquez (39), SS/2B Nico Hoerner (42)

The Skinny: Slowly but surely, Chicago’s system is improving. Breakout seasons from Brailyn Marquez and Brennen Davis in 2019 boosted its stock before the year, and the group got a talent injection from this year’s draft class. The draft group was led by SS Ed Howard, whom BA ranked as the No. 20 prospect available, and flanked by intriguing prospects like LHP Burl Carraway, RHP Koen Moreno, OF Jordan Nwogu and LHP Luke Little.

How do the Dodgers do it?


Seems like their strategy is to target and draft hitters who they can successfully change their swings, draft 2-way players who can improve when they focus on one side (of course everyone does this) and also take a lot of injured pitchers with past success, knowing that some will get healthy. I also like how they maximize depth by trading big leaguers in areas of strengths for prospects (Wood/Puig/Kemp for Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray; Maeda for Brusdar Graterol; Stripling for Kendall Williams). It’s a strategy teams like the A’s and Rays use but they don’t have the financial might of the Dodgers.

All that said, now that Lux graduated, Fangraphs dropped their farm system to 20, only 3 ahead of the Cubs.
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