Minor League Musings place holder.

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CubsWin
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CubsWin » Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:40 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Cease in MLB in 2019 is like the < 1% best case scenario, the odds have him getting through 4 levels in less than 3 years are extremely low.

I agree that the chances of him reaching the bigs at some point in 2019 are low. When you consider that he could come up as a reliever, I don't know if it's a less than 1% chance, but it's certainly less than a 50/50 proposition.

The main hurdle for me is health. It's a big question mark for every pitcher and especially so for one who's already had TJS. The lesser hurdle is performance. His control/command needs to stay on the trajectory of improvement it's currently on, and he needs to continue to develop FB command and his secondaries (curve and change up). But he's certainly got the talent to move quickly.

So, best case scenario, IF he performs well at each level (not that unlikely) AND stays healthy (a little more unlikely), I don't think his lack of innings will hold him back. Cease pitched 67.2 IP between extended spring and Eugene last year. Assuming no time missed and above average to dominant performance, he could hit 100 innings this year, 130+ in 2018 and 160+ in 2019. If he does stay healthy and performs well, he could easily move through 4 minor league levels within 3 seasons. Heck, if he's dominant enough (and stays healthy), he could reach AAA in the 2nd half of next year.

There's no way he'd have the innings built up to be a full time rotation piece by 2019, but starting out in the pen, being stretched out and joining the rotation in the 2nd half of 2019 wouldn't be out of the question if his innings limit is around 160.

If he keeps being shut down here and there and doesn't pitch over 80 innings this year, the chances of him moving to the pen get a lot greater. But if he's highly effective while healthy, being a reliever could still get him to the bigs by 2019.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:30 pm

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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby David » Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:50 pm

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The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:35 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:


That gd 2015 IFA group is going to steal the show on the farm like Amaya steals that clip. In my mind's eye that group is deep and talented enough to produce two guys with the potential to break into the Cubs lineup or rotation by the end of the decade (my early money is on Paredes and one of the lefties, but Albertos/Sierra/Ademan/Amaya/Gutierrez/Ocampo/Perez even Martinez all have that kind of upside). The hitters in this group showed some polish and approach last year that I think is at least uncommon in the J2 world. Forget that most of them took a walk, or don't, I was most impressed that the hitters did not pile up Ks.

Amaya had a strong debut, was one of the higher quality and more expensive signings, and looks like he's coming along well physically. Just from that clip you've got a not yet 18 YO catcher entering his second pro season with nice loose hands and wrists, a frame that isn't maxed, he ran well, showed some bat speed...At least at this early stage not much to dislike. Like many Cubs prospects Amaya faced plenty of international competition as an amateur and was relatively well known.

I love the mix from that year as well...That group named above alone has at least one from Mexico, DR, Colombia, Venezuela, and Panama.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Mar 18, 2017 10:19 pm







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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby David » Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:00 pm


Bummer. Could be a lot worse, though.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:05 pm

That's not a bummer at all. I initially thought a small sprain.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:24 pm

How did that happen? Hit by a pitch or diving for a ball?
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:15 pm

3 weeks rest and no structural damage is good news.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:32 pm

Do they use Statcast in any milb stadiums?
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby DiceMan4221 » Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:41 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:

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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:07 am

Booooo shoulders

I hope Jose Gutierrez's season goes a whole lot like his MiLST's been going.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:00 am

AZPhil wrote:The MLB squad had the day off, so recently acquired RHSP Eddie Butler was sent to Minor League Camp to get his scheduled game work versus the Diamondbacks Hi-A affiiate (Visalia) on Field #6. Butler allowed four runs (all earned) on six hits (three singles, two doubles, and a triple) in 4.2 IP (69 pitches - 65% strikes), allowing no walks while striking out five with a 3/5 GO/AO. He retired the last five hitters he faced (K, F-9, K, 4-3, L-8). Butler's FB sat at 93-94 and he was able to throw his secondary pitches for strikes, but D'backs (Rawhide) hitters consistently squared-up his pitches and made hard contact up until the last five outs.

Cubs 2016 3rd round draft pick RHSP Thomas Hatch (Oklahoma State) followed Butler to the mound on Field #6 and worked 3.2 IP, allowing the Basabe three-run homer, but he got stronger as he got deeper into the outing, eventually retiring the last eight men he faced in a row (four of the last five by strikeout). Hatch had all of his pitches working (92-93 MPH two-seam FB, slider, and CH) over the last eight outs.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:27 am

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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby David » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:31 am

that's pretty much what i assumed this was

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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Post Count Padder » Thu Mar 23, 2017 4:10 pm

UMFan83 wrote:https://twitter.com/tommybirch/status/844705934723166208

That's a shame. Still had hopes to see him get a callup this year/in September.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby David » Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:10 am

Prob a little more aggressive than people were expecting
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:25 am

He's gonna wear out the PCL
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Jaxbro » Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:00 am

Damn PCL schedule and no early season visit to Omaha for Iowa this year. Maybe Theo and company go the Bryant route and keep him in the minors the whole year(I can hope). Looks like a little road trip to Des Moines to see him play.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CubInOK » Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:40 am

Oh cool The I-Cubs start the season in OKC. I hope Happ Schwarbers/Bryants the PCL.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby David » Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:42 pm

http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-cubs/ ... riple-iowa

"Offensively, what was there not to like?" general manager Jed Hoyer said. "I feel like he hit the ball hard every at-bat for six weeks. It's always fun to see a young guy like that come in and open a lot of eyes."

Happ, 22, is a switch-hitter who can play second base and the outfield, skills that could help him escape from Des Moines once the need arises on the major-league level.

Though there are questions about Happ's defense, Theo Epstein's front office and Joe Maddon's coaching staff clearly value versatility and trust young talent, moving Addison Russell to shortstop in 2015 and elevating rookie catcher Willson Contreras last season.

Stay tuned to see when/if the Cubs will have a spot at Wrigley Field, but Happ looks like he will be on a fast track.

"Whenever you're in Triple-A, you're always a call away," Hoyer said. "Sometimes it happens quicker than you think. We never expected Addie would be up in April of that year, and he was. I feel like with Willson last year, if you had asked me in spring training – would he be up in June? – I probably would have thought it would be more like a September call-up or something like that.

"You never know. Things happen. When you have good players in the minor leagues, sometimes it speeds up on you a little bit."


They're already saying stuff like this.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:45 pm

David wrote:They're already saying stuff like this.


What do you mean already? When else would you talk about being prepared for potential injuries necessitating an earlier than expected call-up?
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby David » Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:48 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
David wrote:They're already saying stuff like this.


What do you mean already? When else would you talk about being prepared for potential injuries necessitating an earlier than expected call-up?


I mean when they hint at a potential actual prospect call up actually being close, there's kind of been a pattern of it happening way sooner than any of us have expected.

obviously, though, there's not a ton of room in the lineup for him to come up without an injury. but going into spring training i didn't think there was much of a chance happ sniffing the MLB roster before maybe september. now i think he's up in april if someone gets hurt.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:59 pm

It's probably gonna take 2 injuries to get Happ to Chicago, because for all his charms he's not going to leapfrog Baez for playing time, and unless the one injury is a pretty long term one, calling him up to play infrequently probably isn't a great idea considering he put up a .733 OPS in AA last year.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby David » Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:02 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:It's probably gonna take 2 injuries to get Happ to Chicago, because for all his charms he's not going to leapfrog Baez for playing time, and unless the one injury is a pretty long term one, calling him up to play infrequently probably isn't a great idea considering he put up a .733 OPS in AA last year.


(i hate doing this)

until he plays everyday vs righties and is striking out in 30% of his ABs and literally never walking

(/i really hate doing this)
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