Minor League Musings place holder.

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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby davell » Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:43 pm

I picture him being the second piece in a deal, more so than trading him in a straight up deal for pitching. Depends though on if we decide to take a quantity or quality approach. Which I could see us doing either honestly. Especially with us in need of multiple arms pretty soon.

Teams that Candelario could appeal to, on his own? I'd guess the Indians and Yankees would be possible. I'd say the Braves, Marlins, Angels, and A's are good fits to allow him to be an everyday major leaguer immediately upon acquisition. The Twins and Padres are teams that could probably shuffle things up and fit him in too.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:56 pm

davell wrote:I picture him being the second piece in a deal, more so than trading him in a straight up deal for pitching. Depends though on if we decide to take a quantity or quality approach. Which I could see us doing either honestly. Especially with us in need of multiple arms pretty soon.

Teams that Candelario could appeal to, on his own? I'd guess the Indians and Yankees would be possible. I'd say the Braves, Marlins, Angels, and A's are good fits to allow him to be an everyday major leaguer immediately upon acquisition. The Twins and Padres are teams that could probably shuffle things up and fit him in too.


I expect a quality approach through trade and a quantity approach through FA. Trade for at least one guy who is capable of being a monster sooner rather than later. Then next year sign one or two of the Garcia/Duffy/Eovaldi/Tillman/Cobb group in FA to fill out what is not there.

I'm secretly not secretly all about Jose Fernandez still, even if he is a FA after 2018. I believe the Marlins shop him this offseason as he's arb eligible and they're going nowhere with him.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TruffleShuffle » Tue Sep 13, 2016 1:30 am

eloy made the BA minor league all-star team.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/m ... Jwi2dCV.97

Jimenez took another giant step forward in his development in 2016, when the 19-year-old took home Midwest League MVP honors in a season in which the left fielder ranked third in the league batting race (.329) while leading the circuit in doubles (40) and slugging (.532). Jimenez, the top international talent available in 2013, doesn’t walk much and his long levers create holes in his swing, but the righthanded-hitting Dominican makes enough hard contact to thrive.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:03 pm

3. Mesa Solar Sox

The Cubs have graduated a lot of talent in recent years and has traded off some more, but sending outfielder Eloy Jimenez, second baseman Ian Happ and righthander Duane Underwood to the AFL is a good reminder that the farm system still has talent to spare. Outfielder Anthony Alford and shortstops Yu-Cheng Chang and Franklin Barreto add to the star power.


www.baseballamerica.com/minors/ranking- ... LJUbtpW.99
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Sep 16, 2016 2:12 am

BA's end of the year Cubs report: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/e ... JAydXPG.97

Best player: Eloy Jimenez

“It’s hard to believe when you look at him sometimes that he’s 19, when you see how advanced he is at the plate with his approach,” farm director Jaron Madison, who considers the 6-foot-4 Jimenez’s ability to stay healthy all year a major step in his development, said. “He still swings and misses, but he’s made adjustments.”


Pitcher of the Year: Trevor Clifton. Also of note was Oscar de la Cruz and BA mentioned his offseason plans:

The Cubs have him scheduled for instructional league and possibly some Dominican League play to accumulate innings. If all goes well, he should start 2017 at high Class A.


Keep An Eye On: Righthander Jose Albertos, 17, is another potential power starter in the mold of De La Cruz, with a fastball that touched 97 mph early in the season before the Cubs shut him down after one Rookie-level start because of forearm soreness.

Despite no report of structural damage, the Cubs shut him down before slowly working him back into pitching shape, and Albertos will build up some instructional league innings before going into next spring.

The 6-foot-1 build is mature for his age, and Madison calls him a “stuff guy,” who “commands both sides of the plate with a breaking ball and a 70 changeup.”
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby craig » Sat Sep 17, 2016 1:01 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:..Best player: Eloy Jimenez
“It’s hard to believe when you look at him sometimes that he’s 19, when you see how advanced he is at the plate with his approach,” ....

...Jose Albertos, 17, ..... Albertos will build up some instructional league innings before going into next spring.

The 6-foot-1 build is mature for his age, and Madison calls him a “stuff guy,” who “commands both sides of the plate with a breaking ball and a 70 changeup.”


I like the "advanced" reference to Eloy.

Also very encouraged at the Albertos input.
*70-changeup. Hadn't appreciated that before. If a guy throws 97 but his better pitch is a change, that's a lot of possibility.
*"Stuff guy".
*"Will build up some instructional innings". That doesn't suggest there is a presently serious arm injury, or that any surgery has been done or anything.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Sep 17, 2016 2:55 am

craig wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:..Best player: Eloy Jimenez
“It’s hard to believe when you look at him sometimes that he’s 19, when you see how advanced he is at the plate with his approach,” ....



I like the "advanced" reference to Eloy.

Also very encouraged at the Albertos input.
*70-changeup. Hadn't appreciated that before. If a guy throws 97 but his better pitch is a change, that's a lot of possibility.
*"Stuff guy".
*"Will build up some instructional innings". That doesn't suggest there is a presently serious arm injury, or that any surgery has been done or anything.


The Cubs made it clear a month ago that Albertos didn't have surgery.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Sep 17, 2016 3:21 am

Enocuraging stuff on Albertos....I really wish there was any kind of DSL coverage at all to get anything on Marquez or Carrera.

Jimenez also made the minor league AS team for BA:

CubsOF Eloy Jimenez • Cubs
Low Class A South Bend (Midwest)

Jimenez took another giant step forward in his development in 2016, when the 19-year-old took home Midwest League MVP honors in a season in which the left fielder ranked third in the league batting race (.329) while leading the circuit in doubles (40) and slugging (.532). Jimenez, the top international talent available in 2013, doesn’t walk much and his long levers create holes in his swing, but the righthanded-hitting Dominican makes enough hard contact to thrive.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/m ... hBT8ac4.99
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Sep 22, 2016 5:29 pm

Jim Callis took a stab at what the MLB.com top 10 would look like after next season. Eloy came in at 7 (Gleyber at 5).

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/202749152 ... =151437456
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:45 am

forearm soreness after one start? not great bob.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:57 pm

Sickels comment on Slappy Almora:

I think he could start for a few years for someone who loves his glove, but I don't think the bat will improve much beyond where he is currently.

So, sometimes-starter, sure. 10-year starter? I doubt it.


He also says Paredes is "perhaps" a top 20 Cubs prospect, but not top 10 today, and that he'd probably have Clifton in the low 100's as a prospect.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holde

Postby Thrilho » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:19 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Sickels comment on Slappy Almora:

I think he could start for a few years for someone who loves his glove, but I don't think the bat will improve much beyond where he is currently.

So, sometimes-starter, sure. 10-year starter? I doubt it.


He also says Paredes is "perhaps" a top 20 Cubs prospect, but not top 10 today, and that he'd probably have Clifton in the low 100's as a prospect.


10 year starter is a pretty tall bar to clear. Either way I'd take Slappy Almora's .162 MLB iso, 29% hard hit, and 33 UZR on my playoff roster. And he doesn't need to improve much past the current .276/.296/.438 line to be pretty valuable (pacing for 4.6 fWAR/600). Seems like a lot of teams could run with a guy like that hitting 7/8. Now if he thinks the bat is what we saw in AAA then different story. I'd guess the career line looks like a slightly goosed up version of this MLB line though.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holde

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:54 pm

Thrilho wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:Sickels comment on Slappy Almora:

I think he could start for a few years for someone who loves his glove, but I don't think the bat will improve much beyond where he is currently.

So, sometimes-starter, sure. 10-year starter? I doubt it.


He also says Paredes is "perhaps" a top 20 Cubs prospect, but not top 10 today, and that he'd probably have Clifton in the low 100's as a prospect.


10 year starter is a pretty tall bar to clear. Either way I'd take Slappy Almora's .162 MLB iso, 29% hard hit, and 33 UZR on my playoff roster. And he doesn't need to improve much past the current .276/.296/.438 line to be pretty valuable (pacing for 4.6 fWAR/600). Seems like a lot of teams could run with a guy like that hitting 7/8. Now if he thinks the bat is what we saw in AAA then different story. I'd guess the career line looks like a slightly goosed up version of this MLB line though.


Well yeah, Almora on this year's playoff roster should be a given, I don't think anyone would argue that. OTOH trying to sell that .162 IsoSLG (career MiL over 1700+ PAs is .126 including .113 and .128 in AAA and AA) and a 33 UZR over all of 108 PAs and 217 innings (making him far and away the best defender in baseball) will be the norm...Well, that just sounds like a load of hooey.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holde

Postby Thrilho » Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:22 am

TomtheBombadil wrote: Well yeah, Almora on this year's playoff roster should be a given, I don't think anyone would argue that.


I didn't chime in earlier in the season, but I've envisioned him on it consistently over the last couple months. I'd think there's a spectrum of feelings from people on how valuable he'll be and how much to trust his bat, and I'm probably well on the confident end. For instance, I don't think the .162 iso is a fluke.

OTOH trying to sell that .162 IsoSLG (career MiL over 1700+ PAs is .126 including .113 and .128 in AAA and AA) and a 33 UZR over all of 108 PAs and 217 innings (making him far and away the best defender in baseball) will be the norm...Well, that just sounds like a load of hooey.


I didn't say his .162 iso was the norm; I said I'd take it on the playoff roster. I said that "a slightly goosed up" version of his current MLB line is what I'd expect out of his career. I'd guess something like .280/.320/.430. I didn't actually try to justify this in the post but if I had I'd probably use some stuff on his age, raw power, and how improved plate approach helps unlock power.

On the 33 UZR being the norm, I'm guessing you got that from where I said he's pacing for 4.6 fWAR this year. I don't know if he's actually worth 33 UZR going forward, but I'd bet it's consistently over 25. He'd be the best outfielder by UZR this year with 33, but last year there were three outfielders over 35 and 2 over 40. So even if I did expect a consistent 30 out of him it doesn't make him the far and away best defender in baseball.

So I guess I'll just say I disagree with a Sickles that knows way more than me in thinking he's just a fringy guy that'll only be an opening day starter for a couple years. But for the playoffs this year, I'm looking forward to some consistent contact against both lefties and righties, and some solid (.150+) slugging.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holde

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:34 am

- Last year the highest UZR was 30 and that guy was 10 runs better than the next. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &sort=23,d

- Sickels neither calls him fringy nor says he'll only he an OD starter for a couple years.

- Base seems to be the playoffs thing here, but Almora on the playoff roster is kind of a duh move. It's handing him a starting job on the idea that there's basically ~5 WAR player with pushing historic defense and above average career IsoSLGer off of 108 PAs and 217 innings that confounds, even with contact being such a useful skill. I can buy that he could put together a handful of years in this upcoming 23-27 window, particularly between 23-25, that are better than he's shown in the minors.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holde

Postby Thrilho » Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:12 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:- Last year the highest UZR was 30 and that guy was 10 runs better than the next. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &sort=23,d


Horsefeathers. I don't know what I was looking at with that. Something on fangraphs listed Keiermayer, Heyward, and Pillar over 35...but not what I meant to be looking at. So yeah, that 4.8 fWAR with a 113 wRC+ isn't going to happen unless he's peak Keiermayer. Still that wasn't what I was trying to project from him. If it were then I'd be selling him a lot harder. He could start on an awful lot of teams as a 3 win player though and based on the eye test of his defense, his bat wouldn't have to improve a lot from his current talent level to get and keep him above that.

- Sickels neither calls him fringy nor says he'll only he an OD starter for a couple years. .


I interpret " he could start for a few years" and "sometimes-starter" as fringe starter. Call it third division starter, whatever. If he has an 8-10 year career and starts for a few of them he's a pretty fringy starter.

- Base seems to be the playoffs thing here, but Almora on the playoff roster is kind of a duh move. It's handing him a starting job on the idea that there's basically ~5 WAR player with pushing historic defense and above average career IsoSLGer off of 108 PAs and 217 innings that confounds, even with contact being such a useful skill. I can buy that he could put together a handful of years in this upcoming 23-27 window, particularly between 23-25, that are better than he's shown in the minors.


- Who's handing him a starting job. All I've ever said I'd commit to him for 2017 is 200-300 PAs based on roster construction. Plenty of room to work him in at 23.

- The iso is again not based off 108 PAs. It's based off witnessing him crush doubles and home runs, and the knowledge that power sometimes develops slowly. You should jump on board the train. It's not too late to think he can maintain a .150< OPS through his peak years.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Thrilho » Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:26 am

Oh also, since I lost my mind on that original post and had the UZR scaling all wrong...let me say I feel confident he's consistently at least a 20 UZR player rather than 25. It's elite level, but I see no reason why he can't hit it at least until his late 20s or some injury derails him. He gets some nice jumps.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Thrilho » Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:46 am

Last revision to my post, I'm changing that .280/.320/.430 line to pre-30 rather than career. Just looked up Jeter as an idea of a ~.150 iso guy and man that tumble down your 30s really takes a toll on the batting line. So I guess I'm vouching for Almora as a guy who remains a pretty good (~95 wRC+) MLB player up to 30 but nothing beyond that. That still does seem like an awful lot to vouch for right now, but luckily enough age 29 Almora means a hill of horsefeathers to the Cubs.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Sep 28, 2016 2:59 pm

I definitely believe there's more value in trading Almora than having him sit on the bench the majority of next year. This is not a case like Baez where the Cubs had an elite minor league hitter who played SS, had experience at 2B and 3B, and the athleticism to maybe throw in the OF in an emergency situation. The opportunities to play Almora will be less, and players who can do that job are cheap. That he can start for plenty of teams works in the Cubs' favor when it comes to trade value as well.

"Witnessing him crush doubles and HRs" sounds a little smoke and mirrors around that 108 PAs, and I'm not so sure about that power claim. What is in his favor is that he's heading into a window (23-25) where power peaks for the vast majority of players:

Image

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters- ... ke-cheese/

but even then playing him sporadically next year is probably not the way to reap the benefits of that.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:05 pm



Good frame, I really wish there was video. Looks like the delivery is going to be built around the Lester template using my super eagle eye, expected given his dimensions.

It seems Arguello is also impressed by Gutierrez.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Thrilho » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:19 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:I definitely believe there's more value in trading Almora than having him sit on the bench the majority of next year. This is not a case like Baez where the Cubs had an elite minor league hitter who played SS, had experience at 2B and 3B, and the athleticism to maybe throw in the OF in an emergency situation. The opportunities to play Almora will be less, and players who can do that job are cheap. That he can start for plenty of teams works in the Cubs' favor when it comes to trade value as well.


Sure they could trade him and if they get a stud pitcher back then maybe that's the best way to get value for 2017. But there are other years than 2017 to consider. Baez only got sparing work his first couple years and he's worked himself into what I think is a really valuable piece.

I'd patient with Almora, work him in, and my guess is that "established MLB hitter" Almora will be more valuable than whatever he's seen as now. And the Cubs don't need any starting pitching til 2018, so I don't see the rush.

"Witnessing him crush doubles and HRs" sounds a little smoke and mirrors around that 108 PAs, and I'm not so sure about that power claim. What is in his favor is that he's heading into a window (23-25) where power peaks for the vast majority of players


Totally, you're entitled to be skeptical of his power. I'll look at his triple from last night and some of the other balls he's hit on a rope and say he's got some raw power he can tap into. I've put some numbers to it, in that I think he's a .150 iso type player for at least his peak years. I'll even say I expect him to hit that for 2017. Seems like that's going out on a limb.

If we were doing a gentleman's bet on 2017, what would you project his iso to be?
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:50 pm

Thrilho wrote:Sure they could trade him and if they get a stud pitcher back then maybe that's the best way to get value for 2017. But there are other years than 2017 to consider. Baez only got sparing work his first couple years and he's worked himself into what I think is a really valuable piece.

I'd patient with Almora, work him in, and my guess is that "established MLB hitter" Almora will be more valuable than whatever he's seen as now. And the Cubs don't need any starting pitching til 2018, so I don't see the rush.

Totally, you're entitled to be skeptical of his power. I'll look at his triple from last night and some of the other balls he's hit on a rope and say he's got some raw power he can tap into. I've put some numbers to it, in that I think he's a .150 iso type player for at least his peak years. I'll even say I expect him to hit that for 2017. Seems like that's going out on a limb.

If we were doing a gentleman's bet on 2017, what would you project his iso to be?


- Baez was a way better prospect than Almora and played a more valuable position with a more valuable skillset. That's why he was afforded patience at the ML level. Even then Almora has in the org only one year less than Baez, they've shown lots of patience.

- They shouldn't and likely won't be waiting for 2018 to buy SP.

- They can find glove first OFs post-2017 as well, I assume.

- All that raw power to tap into and you'd go out on a limb for below average power at peak (including age 23 2017)? In a part time role at that? League average IsoSLG this year is .162.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Thrilho » Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:07 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Thrilho wrote:Sure they could trade him and if they get a stud pitcher back then maybe that's the best way to get value for 2017. But there are other years than 2017 to consider. Baez only got sparing work his first couple years and he's worked himself into what I think is a really valuable piece.

I'd patient with Almora, work him in, and my guess is that "established MLB hitter" Almora will be more valuable than whatever he's seen as now. And the Cubs don't need any starting pitching til 2018, so I don't see the rush.

Totally, you're entitled to be skeptical of his power. I'll look at his triple from last night and some of the other balls he's hit on a rope and say he's got some raw power he can tap into. I've put some numbers to it, in that I think he's a .150 iso type player for at least his peak years. I'll even say I expect him to hit that for 2017. Seems like that's going out on a limb.

If we were doing a gentleman's bet on 2017, what would you project his iso to be?


- Baez was a way better prospect than Almora and played a more valuable position with a more valuable skillset. That's why he was afforded patience at the ML level. Even then Almora has in the org only one year less than Baez, they've shown lots of patience.

- They shouldn't and likely won't be waiting for 2018 to buy SP.

- They can find glove first OFs post-2017 as well, I assume.

- All that raw power to tap into and you'd go out on a limb for below average power at peak (including age 23 2017)? League average IsoSLG this year is .162.


- You're not getting my point on Baez. It's not that Almora is going to be as good or a comparable player, it's that sometimes you work guys in gradually and get better results than if you'd just traded them. You're looking at Almora's horsefeathers MiLB iso with skepticism. My guess is some of the other goons that GM around the league right now will too. A year of quality production could net the Cubs way more.

- Maybe they wait maybe they don't. But there are plenty of other guys to trade who are actually blocked or who are pitchers. Candy + Happ seems like a solid starting spot. No reason to trade a guy who might be good at a position where you have room to at least rotate guys in.

- This is just where we disagree on role and talent level. If you want centerfield Kawasaki then sure you can find that but you wouldn't want him playing much. If I'm in the camp that sees Almora as a 3+ WAR/150 player who could get 200-300 PAs next season and more in 2018 pending roster construction then I think we're just talking about 2 different things.

- You're calling him Slappy Almora and this is what you've got when I ask a pointed question of what you see his iso at in 2017? Yeah with the raw power he's exhibited I see a probable .150 iso. Just under league average. I'd assume anyone with nickname of Slappy would have to be pretty far off league average right? What's your number?
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:35 pm

Thrilho wrote:- You're not getting my point on Baez. It's not that Almora is going to be as good or a comparable player, it's that sometimes you work guys in gradually and get better results than if you'd just traded them. You're looking at Almora's horsefeathers MiLB iso with skepticism. My guess is some of the other goons that GM around the league right now will too. A year of quality production could net the Cubs way more.

- Maybe they wait maybe they don't. But there are plenty of other guys to trade who are actually blocked or who are pitchers. Candy + Happ seems like a solid starting spot. No reason to trade a guy who might be good at a position where you have room to at least rotate guys in.

- This is just where we disagree on role and talent level. If you want centerfield Kawasaki then sure you can find that but you wouldn't want him playing much. If I'm in the camp that sees Almora as a 3+ WAR/150 player who could get 200-300 PAs next season and more in 2018 pending roster construction then I think we're just talking about 2 different things.

- You're calling him Slappy Almora and this is what you've got when I ask a pointed question of what you see his iso at in 2017? Yeah with the raw power he's exhibited I see a probable .150 iso. Just under league average. I'd assume anyone with nickname of Slappy would have to be pretty far off league average right? What's your number?


- I totally get your point on Baez. My point is that Baez was afforded that patience because he was a much, much better prospect than Almora with a more valuable set of skills. As I already stated - one offers premium power and can play any spot in the IF and was given OF reps by the FO and CS, the other is a light hitting OF who even an arden supporter sees as a below average hitter even at his peak.

- So is it that he can start for most teams in the league and relatively easily put up 3+ WAR or that other GMs need to see more?

- There's at least a very good chance they will buy pitching via trade before 2018 and it will likely require more than one player.
As nice as it would be to land a top quality talent for a back half top 100 prospects, it's probably not happening that way.

- Yeah, I'm not looking for a Kawasaki nor does that guy have to be a Kawasaki equivalent. If we're regarding that role like that, isn't regulating a slam dunk 3+ WAR starting caliber player in the middle of his prime to the bench basically forcing him into being a CF Kawasaki?

- You're saying peak, tapping into this raw power you see and even given favorable matchups as a part timer, he's below average. I would agree with that, sounds Slappy to me.
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davell
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby davell » Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:46 pm

Calling him Slappy is just trolling. There's literally zero reason for it.

He's an ideal 4th OF for us. He's very comparable to Javy in SOME ways. He's got holes offensively and he's excellent defensively. Both are going to get time to work thru the holes and both have shown signs of being able to do just that.

We're just as much about run prevention as we are about scoring runs. We love versatility, therefore both guys have lots of chances to get into games.

You're kidding yourself if you think Almora is going to bring back a stud pitcher as the lead piece. You're also cutting seriously into our valued depth if you trade him in a deal where he's NOT the lead piece. He's more valuable to us than he is in a trade. He's got versatility, potential for a decent bat, is excellent defensively, and is cheap as hell. Which becomes super valuable once KB, Addy, and others start to cost real money. In fact, he's set up perfectly, because his skill set isn't even likely to ever make him super expensive.

I really want to keep Dex, use Almora as the 4th OF and trade Soler for whatever the best pitching package he'll bring back. Almora is just a better fit for us than he is. Neither brings us a stud pitcher by themselves. But I've got plenty of confidence that our guys can maximize the return and find a nice fit.
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Additional rule: you have to have one or the other.The only exception is you have an amazing board name. davell, I'm looking at you; put up a [expletive] avatar or something if your name only sounds like somebody tried say Dave as they lapsed into a coma.


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