Minor League Musings place holder.

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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby David » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:12 pm

and if he wants to do some of those sweet undetectable steroids that guys like bryce harper and reed johnson are doing, that'd be cool with me too
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:13 pm

davell wrote:Gato-I don't have an issue with what you think Almora winds up being. But haven't you been using the same small sample people are excited about for him, on your guy?(Caratini)


I actually run with Caratini's roughly last ~400 PAS of the season where he put up a .750 OPS at the C position in the Cubs' toughest minor league park for hitters. Then there's his playoff run where he either went 7-11 or 4-11 with 3 XBHs.

Other things that would separate them:

- Position - Offensive expectations for a C prospect are not that of an OF prospect.
- Caratini is on track to remain a switch hitter

Even then, I'm not pushing for Caratini as a top 100 prospect today nor am I kicking Almora out of the Cubs' top 10 prospects.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby David » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:14 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
davell wrote:Gato-I don't have an issue with what you think Almora winds up being. But haven't you been using the same small sample people are excited about for him, on your guy?(Caratini)


I actually run with Caratini's roughly last ~400 PAS of the season where he put up a .750 OPS at the C position in the Cubs' toughest minor league park for hitters. Then there's his playoff run where he either went 7-11 or 4-11 with 3 XBHs.

Other things that would separate them:

- Position - Offensive expectations for a C prospect are not that of an OF prospect.
- Caratini is on track to remain a switch hitter

Even then, I'm not pushing for Caratini as a top 100 prospect today nor am I kicking Almora out of the Cubs' top 10 prospects.


so it's the size of the arbitrary sample size you take issue with? fair enough, i suppose.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:16 pm

David wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
davell wrote:Gato-I don't have an issue with what you think Almora winds up being. But haven't you been using the same small sample people are excited about for him, on your guy?(Caratini)


I actually run with Caratini's roughly last ~400 PAS of the season where he put up a .750 OPS at the C position in the Cubs' toughest minor league park for hitters. Then there's his playoff run where he either went 7-11 or 4-11 with 3 XBHs.

Other things that would separate them:

- Position - Offensive expectations for a C prospect are not that of an OF prospect.
- Caratini is on track to remain a switch hitter

Even then, I'm not pushing for Caratini as a top 100 prospect today nor am I kicking Almora out of the Cubs' top 10 prospects.


so it's the size of the arbitrary sample size you take issue with? fair enough, i suppose.

it's not the size of the sample it's the dong in his swing
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:16 pm

David wrote:and if he wants to do some of those sweet undetectable steroids that guys like bryce harper and reed johnson are doing, that'd be cool with me too


Reed Johnson? He of the .126 career IsoSLG? Comparisons between Harper and Almora shouldn't exist in any faborable way - Harper is a year older and already has 97 career ML HRs.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby David » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:16 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
David wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:he's not going through puberty and steroids aren't as easy to come by so I think the safe answer is he's shown his power abilities.


hey sweet post that isn't an answer to my question

and the notion that steroids are the only way to add significant strength and muscle for a 21 year old is [expletive] hilariously laughable


What was your question then?

What's the history of non-steroidal significant power being added after 21. Sure he'll eventually get old man strength which will help him when wrestling younger nieces and nephews who think he's old. But that's not the same as adding power to your profile as a hitter at 22 and beyond.


my question was essentially whether it was unthinkable that a young player with great contact skills could hit for significantly more power as his approach and body mature. not whether it should be expected or projected, but whether it would or wouldn't be unheard of, because the conversation was about upside.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby David » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:17 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
David wrote:and if he wants to do some of those sweet undetectable steroids that guys like bryce harper and reed johnson are doing, that'd be cool with me too


Reed Johnson? He of the .126 career IsoSLG? Comparisons between Harper and Almora shouldn't exist in any faborable way - Harper is a year older and already has 97 career ML HRs.


you don't get jokes

this is what reed johnson reported to ST looking like a few days ago

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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:20 pm

David wrote:right.

it's not necessarily the evaluation of this one player. i don't terribly love almora (though i think calling his ceiling darwin barney is pretty absurd). it's the inconsistent way he applies his reasoning to the development of guys he likes vs guys he doesn't.


So basically, you want me to use what was dumb and wrong to use for Tyler Beede in 2014 - imagined upside and potential - now for Almora because it would be consistent with stuff I said in 2014? I'm starting to think there's no pleasing some folks. At the same time, upside and potential shouldn't apply to Caratini, who has actually outhit Almora while playing a tougher position and learning to hit - at a professional level - from both sides of the plate?
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:21 pm

David wrote:my question was essentially whether it was unthinkable that a young player with great contact skills could hit for significantly more power as his approach and body mature. not whether it should be expected or projected, but whether it would or wouldn't be unheard of, because the conversation was about upside.

I think asking whether it is truly unthinkable is rather pointless. Sure, there is some variation of the universe where that happens. It probably won't though and isn't appropriate to consider when discussing realistic upside, because everybody could theoretically start showing a lot more power than they ever have before if magic happens.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby davell » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:22 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
davell wrote:Gato-I don't have an issue with what you think Almora winds up being. But haven't you been using the same small sample people are excited about for him, on your guy?(Caratini)


I actually run with Caratini's roughly last ~400 PAS of the season where he put up a .750 OPS at the C position in the Cubs' toughest minor league park for hitters. Then there's his playoff run where he either went 7-11 or 4-11 with 3 XBHs.

Other things that would separate them:

- Position - Offensive expectations for a C prospect are not that of an OF prospect.
- Caratini is on track to remain a switch hitter

Even then, I'm not pushing for Caratini as a top 100 prospect today nor am I kicking Almora out of the Cubs' top 10 prospects.


OK, again I'm fine with the reasoning on Almora. But Caratini is 8 months older and playing a level behind where Almora is too.(I get that C's develop later in some instances) I wouldn't lump CF in with corners either, when talking offense for OF.

I think the easiest thing to say here is we all have certain guys we like for some reason or another and can frame an argument for why we do. And can likely do the same as to why we don't like others.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby David » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:25 pm

i think almora's ceiling/upside is a player who is expected to hit something like .280/.325/.400 with plus defense in CF...maybe a 15 HR guy with a bunch of doubles.

if my SLG is off for that description, my bad, i pulled it outta my ass mostly.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Tim » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:26 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
David wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:he's not going through puberty and steroids aren't as easy to come by so I think the safe answer is he's shown his power abilities.


hey sweet post that isn't an answer to my question

and the notion that steroids are the only way to add significant strength and muscle for a 21 year old is [expletive] hilariously laughable


What was your question then?

What's the history of non-steroidal significant power being added after 21. Sure he'll eventually get old man strength which will help him when wrestling younger nieces and nephews who think he's old. But that's not the same as adding power to your profile as a hitter at 22 and beyond.

Most players who end up with power add a significant amount after age 21.

It is very fair to add some projection to his power at this point. His median projection is probably in the 10-15 HR range he has some probability to reach the 15-20 range. Either of those adds up to a very nice player if he can maintain his 11% strikeout rate and plus defense in CF.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:27 pm

davell wrote:OK, again I'm fine with the reasoning on Almora. But Caratini is 8 months older and playing a level behind where Almora is too.(I get that C's develop later in some instances) I wouldn't lump CF in with corners either, when talking offense for OF.

I think the easiest thing to say here is we all have certain guys we like for some reason or another and can frame an argument for why we do. And can likely do the same as to why we don't like others.


If you get that Cs develop slower than others, why should Caratini be signficiantly penalized for being a level behind a glove first OF with a ~.700 OPS between A+ and AA? I wouldn't lump Cs in with CFs.

I think we're looking to poke holes that aren't there to prop Almora up, which is framing a poorly thought out argument. This has nothing to do with not liking Almora. If anything the more emotion based argument is on the other side.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby davell » Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:35 pm

I'm not THAT high on either. Yes, I think Almora is top 6-7 in our system and Caratini is likely 16-20 for me. My point is its easy to frame arguments for Almora to take a big step forward if you WANT to. Hell, you've done the same with Caratini.(and done a solid job at it)

To me, if you're wanting to add power to Almora's profile, the easiest argument to make is to give him a bit of loift to what's a relatively flat looking swing.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby craig » Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:46 pm

David wrote:i think almora's ceiling/upside is a player who is expected to hit something like .280/.325/.400 with plus defense in CF...maybe a 15 HR guy with a bunch of doubles. if my SLG is off for that description, my bad, i pulled it outta my ass mostly.


That's kind of how I'm seeing it too, for an optimistic but not unrealistic scenario. 15HR maybe on the high side, but .280-ish and .325-ish sound pretty reasonable, that's not ridiculous. 12-15 HR, upside could boost the slugging a little bit, maybe .425. .280-.325-.425 would be a .750-OPS guy. Very good player with the defense, not a star.

That's around his career minor-league output: .287-.323-.416, so it's hardly like some fantasy dream with a radical change in profile.

The challenge in projecting his big-league output to mirror his minor-league output, of course, is that few players match in the majors what they did in the minors. So, if he's been .739 in minors, can I really realistically hope he might be .730-.750 in majors? Not likely, no.

But not absurd to hope for either. He's been young for his leagues, and as Cubswin has noted a large chunk of his history was during an adjustment period.

I expect that the improvement in walk-rate this past year is real.

He won't sustain his low K-rate in the majors, nobody can against the awesomeness of big-league pitchers, and especially if he's going back to serious leg-kick. So to hang in the .730-.750 range in the majors, won't happen without adding an extra five HR's and getting into double figures.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CubsWin » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:55 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
CubsWin wrote:There's a lot of anecdotal evidence as well.


A more accurate statement is that it's almost all anecdotal. He went on a quest and found himself with Team USA, gave himself a pep talk, remembered his lessons, tweaked his swing, adjusted other stuff, and then kicked ass in August. Now he's added muscle, is in the Best Shape of His Life, and so on. Beyond 140 PAs, with a .387 BABIP, where he hit for high average, some power, and took some more walks, everything else seems to be anecdotal and/or Cubs sourced.

"Gave himself a pep talk". That was funny. Sounds like for you the anecdotal evidence is being shrugged off. That's fine. For me, in this case not all, it is providing a context that tells me to keep an open mind and see how he hits in AAA before thinking I know what he is.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sat Feb 20, 2016 1:56 am

in what way is this thread a placeholder?
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CubsWin » Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:32 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:in what way is this thread a placeholder?

It isn't. Time to change the title I guess if it really matters.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:27 am

CubsWin wrote:"Gave himself a pep talk". That was funny. Sounds like for you the anecdotal evidence is being shrugged off. That's fine. For me, in this case not all, it is providing a context that tells me to keep an open mind and see how he hits in AAA before thinking I know what he is.


For me the anecdotal stuff is what it is, anecdotal stuff. Fine to pay attention and give them some credence, but not all of it on so little. We've gone through Almora tweaking his swing before, and everyone in the minors is adjusting and going through adjustment periods so he isn't unique there. The best ones hit anyway. That will not be the last "adjustment period" of Almora's career. I believe he will hit well enough in AAA next year to maintain a quality prospect status, but unless he comes out mashing HRs, hitting for high average, and taking some more walks, I have serious doubts he's suddenly a brand new, way better hitter solely on Cubs sourced stories and the strong August. My mind is open to him becoming a dramatically better player and hitter, that doesn't make it the likely outcome.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CubsWin » Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:50 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
CubsWin wrote:"Gave himself a pep talk". That was funny. Sounds like for you the anecdotal evidence is being shrugged off. That's fine. For me, in this case not all, it is providing a context that tells me to keep an open mind and see how he hits in AAA before thinking I know what he is.


For me the anecdotal stuff is what it is, anecdotal stuff. We've gone through Almora tweaking his swing before, and everyone in the minors is adjusting and going through adjustment periods so he isn't unique there. The best ones hit anyway. That will not be the last "adjustment period" of Almora's career. I believe he will hit well enough in AAA next year to maintain a quality prospect status, but unless he comes out mashing HRs, hitting for high average, and taking some more walks, I have serious doubts he's suddenly a brand new, way better hitter solely on Cubs sourced stories and the really strong August. My mind is open to him becoming a dramatically better player and hitter, that doesn't make it the likely outcome.

Ok. Thanks. Just making sure, are you no longer saying "he is what he is"? Not that it matters, just wondering cuz it sounds like it.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Feb 20, 2016 9:30 am

CubsWin wrote:Ok. Thanks. Just making sure, are you no longer saying "he is what he is"? Not that it matters, just wondering cuz it sounds like it.


What now?
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CubsWin » Sun Feb 21, 2016 2:04 am

:-))
TomtheBombadil wrote:
CubsWin wrote:Ok. Thanks. Just making sure, are you no longer saying "he is what he is"? Not that it matters, just wondering cuz it sounds like it.


What now?

:-)) :-)) :-)) Nothing, man. Just curious. Before you were saying "he is what he is" and the in last line of your previous post you said you had an open mind just didn't consider it likely. Never mind, It doesn't matter.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Feb 21, 2016 2:11 am

CubsWin wrote::-))
TomtheBombadil wrote:
CubsWin wrote:Ok. Thanks. Just making sure, are you no longer saying "he is what he is"? Not that it matters, just wondering cuz it sounds like it.


What now?

:-)) :-)) :-)) Nothing, man. Just curious. Before you were saying "he is what he is" and the in last line of your previous post you said you had an open mind just didn't consider it likely. Never mind, It doesn't matter.


No no, that's really important. It looks like I got got.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Mon Feb 22, 2016 5:25 am

both of you idiot nerds shut up
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CubsWin » Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:03 am

Bunts Lick Butts wrote:both of you idiot nerds shut up

Yes sir, BLB. I shall never post again. I promise. Just for you. Thank you for your counsel.
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