Minor League Musings place holder.

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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby davell » Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:33 pm













Pretty solid list, from a guy who knows someone within the org. Honestly, some of these rankings might help shed a bit of light on a few guys. I'm hoping he goes in depth as to the "whys" on some of this.....
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Regular Show » Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:37 am

Yeah, I saw his list. It's not bad, and if he really does have an inside source then he probably knows more about some of these prospects than anyone here.

I don't like DJ Wilson and think he's way overrated. He has great tools, but he'll never turn them into real baseball skills/ability.

I think Christopher Morel should be higher and has the potential to blow up and become a Top-10 talent in our system.

His Top-10 part is very solid. Mostly agree on that. Roederer got some Benintendi comps from scouts that really liked him, which has me super excited. That's high praise...
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Regular Show » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:51 am



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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:30 pm

what is it exactly about alzolay that people like
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:42 pm

Super thirsty for a Cubs pitching prospect to actually come up & have an impact, I presume. He's not very big and has like 1 1/2 mlb-level pitches. I can't think of any other reason, but I have to admit my anti-pitching prospect bias.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Regular Show » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:14 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:what is it exactly about alzolay that people like


He's got a nice smile, enjoys long walks on the beach watching the sunset, calls his folks at least once a week, volunteers at a soup kitchen when he can, hates avocado toast...

Lots of things.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby davell » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:43 pm

Honest reasons to like Alzolay.....

Mid 90's FB with movement thats a plus pitch. Curve flashes plus, although its usually average. Change is improving, might be average by now. Works very fast, hard to get in a rhythm against. Seems to be a very high makeup guy.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Regular Show » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:54 pm

davell wrote:Honest reasons to like Alzolay.....

Mid 90's FB with movement thats a plus pitch. Curve flashes plus, although its usually average. Change is improving, might be average by now. Works very fast, hard to get in a rhythm against. Seems to be a very high makeup guy.


Yeah, I mean it's pretty easy to get a scouting report on Alzolay and find out why he's so highly regarded. There is video available. Lots of resources all over the internet.

Now, is TBS Playoffs Insider asking why we like Alzolay and think he's the top pitching prospect in our system?
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:10 pm

davell wrote:Honest reasons to like Alzolay.....

Mid 90's FB with movement thats a plus pitch. Curve flashes plus, although its usually average. Change is improving, might be average by now. Works very fast, hard to get in a rhythm against. Seems to be a very high makeup guy.


And good command. It’s probably a #3-4 starter profile. Obviously health is a concern going forward since he lost a season to injury.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Regular Show » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:01 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnS3Oz08Xc4

Not the best video honestly. Definitely works at a quick pace and attacks hitters (which scouts love). Someone told me that his curveball occasionally (not often) flashes not just plus, but plus plus. Really good curveball some nights.

It will be important to see or read how he bounces back from missing so much time. I'm not concerned with his health. He has a good clean delivery and it looks like he doesn't overexert himself on the mound.

Then again every pitcher can go down in flames and get hurt. I remember reading Prior had "perfect" pitching mechanics and would never break down. You never know...
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Regular Show » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:08 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuw0GMj9lZs

Another video with a better perspective from behind the pitcher. The resolution isn't great, but you can see how his pitches move and how he attacks hitters. The opposing hitter (Hunter Dozier) was a top prospect for KC and is playing on the big league team. He isn't some no-name scrub.

I think his curveball is his best pitch and he starts off the AB with a good one for a strike. Throws a fastball on his second pitch. It's only 93 mph according to the broadcast, but his fastball has decent movement and I've seen him throw some good elevated fastballs with plus movement. Alzolay then breaks out a changeup that just misses. Good arm speed on the changeup. I think this could develop into a good weapon in time. I've seen him throw some crappy changeups too.

Now, comes the best part -- he throws a beautiful curveball right off the plate that dives down to get the K. It comes at the 58 second mark in the video. I don't know if this is a grade 60 (+) or a grade 70 (++) CB, but it seems very impressive to me. I think he could get Baez and some of the other Cubs hitters out with that sick curveball. I think it's either Alzolay or Lange for the title of Best Curveball in the Cubs system.

So, I've watched him plenty of times now. He doesn't have the best stuff among our pitching prospects (I guess that's Dillon Maples), but the combination of command, good delivery, outstanding makeup, solid fastball and a good-to-great curveball makes him the best pitching prospect in the system IMO.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:15 am

davell wrote:https://twitter.com/cubprospects/status/1042821893844283393?s=19












Pretty solid list, from a guy who knows someone within the org. Honestly, some of these rankings might help shed a bit of light on a few guys. I'm hoping he goes in depth as to the "whys" on some of this.....


Not enough Nelson Velazquez and Richard Gallardo, but props on the Short ranking. I’d also bump up Richan, maybe Albertos, Pereda, find room for Gutierrez and Carrera, definitely find room for Gallardo...Ernst gets alot of clips up on his Twitter, that’s cool

———

I find Alzolay’s fastball straight, his breaking ball can get a little loopy, and the changeup well below average. Both his command and control is zone rather than spot based. He also hurt his arm which means he has to rehab (which blows and is a grind) and makes it more likely he will miss time next year to an arm injury.

OTOH he’s massively improved his conditioning, physique (built like Adam Warren), general athleticism, and the tempo of his delivery. He looks the part of a ML SP physically, just not sure what the ceiling is. Maybe he comes back from the non-surgery arm injury with a better changeup, maybe he tightens up the breaking ball - can’t really deny he’s a guy who made many gains. Also to his benefit it’s advantage pitcher during an initial callup, especially a relatively obscure guy like Alzolay.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby davell » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:30 am

Did I miss something? Alzolay had a lat injury and that was it, to my knowledge.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Regular Show » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:39 am

davell wrote:Did I miss something? Alzolay had a lat injury and that was it, to my knowledge.


Yeah, what is he talking about? He hurt his arm and has to rehab? What?

I'm pretty sure he's fully healthy now.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CubsWin » Tue Sep 25, 2018 11:29 am

Regular Show wrote:
davell wrote:Did I miss something? Alzolay had a lat injury and that was it, to my knowledge.


Yeah, what is he talking about? He hurt his arm and has to rehab? What?

I'm pretty sure he's fully healthy now.

The only mention of this injury to Alzolay has ever been a lat strain. This spring he did injure his ankle which got him off to a delayed start in Iowa.

For those interested in why Adbert is highly thought of, here's an excellent rundown of Alzolay's stuff with plenty of video from Cubs blogger Michael Ernst.

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2018/09/end-of-season-prospect-review-adbert-alzolay/
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby davell » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:10 pm





Solid thread. Read thru the entirety of his thoughts.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Regular Show » Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:19 pm

I like Adbert Alzolay even more now. Pretty awesome tweet and I'm glad he has a lot of fans.



Image

Damn, pretty good scouting report from 13-year old Johnny in that fan letter:

"I got to see you play a couple times in Myrtle Beach and you have become one of my favorite players. I really like the way you pitch. I really like your curveball that you throw. You have really good stuff..."


Image

EDIT: I just want to make clear I'm not being sarcastic here. That's legitimately impressive.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:56 am

No Cubs in the BA PCL or SL Top 20 prospects. Some Cubs guys in the SL chat:

Tim (Albany): What is the upside of Zack Short?

Matt Eddy: Tennessee SS Zack Short ranks as the best defensive SS in the SL and had one of the strongest infield arms. He also clubbed 17 HR and drew 82 walks. I expected those attributes to play better with managers and scouts, but they uniformly expressed skepticism that Short's straight uphill swing plane would play against better pitchers. Still, he has attributes that could make him a utility type of infielder.

Navin (Pasadena, CA): Were any Cubs close to the top 20? I’d imagine Zack Short, Trent Giambrone and Keegan Thompson were the best regarded Smokies last year.

Matt Eddy: Short was the clubhouse leader. The other Smokies to receive notice were 3B Jason Vosler (who was repeating the league) and 23-year-old Cuban OF Eddy Martinez. Martinez did not produce results, obviously, but managers liked his bat speed, body and hitting actions.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Regular Show » Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:12 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:No Cubs in the BA PCL or SL Top 20 prospects. Some Cubs guys in the SL chat:

Tim (Albany): What is the upside of Zack Short?

Matt Eddy: Tennessee SS Zack Short ranks as the best defensive SS in the SL and had one of the strongest infield arms. He also clubbed 17 HR and drew 82 walks. I expected those attributes to play better with managers and scouts, but they uniformly expressed skepticism that Short's straight uphill swing plane would play against better pitchers. Still, he has attributes that could make him a utility type of infielder.

Navin (Pasadena, CA): Were any Cubs close to the top 20? I’d imagine Zack Short, Trent Giambrone and Keegan Thompson were the best regarded Smokies last year.

Matt Eddy: Short was the clubhouse leader. The other Smokies to receive notice were 3B Jason Vosler (who was repeating the league) and 23-year-old Cuban OF Eddy Martinez. Martinez did not produce results, obviously, but managers liked his bat speed, body and hitting actions.


Well, that is really disappointing information. Have we even discussed EJM this year in the minor league musings thread?
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:46 am

How much...better(?)...is missing most of the season to a lat injury rather an arm injury? Swap out lat for arm in that post snd what else changes? And the rehab thing - this injury just got better between June and now with some good old fashioned r&r? Pulling teeth sometimes, guys!



I have some optimism for Martinez for 2019+ because:

- he puts the ball in the air
- he makes contact
- he draws some walks
- he has hit for some power
- he does all this despite not playing much competitive ball from 18-21
- Iowa and the juiced ball MLB may allow that mix to play up

Can run a little, spot in CF, well built but maybe a little stiff defensively



Nice to see some positive words on Short, who will join Martinez in Iowa as another flyball hitter with a workable approach.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Regular Show » Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:55 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:How much...better(?)...is missing most of the season to a lat injury rather an arm injury? Swap out lat for arm in that post snd what else changes?


Hey Tom,

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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Sep 26, 2018 5:10 am

Ah, so just more increasingly flimsy gotchya nonsense. Carry on and have fun!
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby davell » Wed Sep 26, 2018 6:17 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:How much...better(?)...is missing most of the season to a lat injury rather an arm injury? Swap out lat for arm in that post snd what else changes? And the rehab thing - this injury just got better between June and now with some good old fashioned r&r? Pulling teeth sometimes, guys!



I have some optimism for Martinez for 2019+ because:

- he puts the ball in the air
- he makes contact
- he draws some walks
- he has hit for some power
- he does all this despite not playing much competitive ball from 18-21
- Iowa and the juiced ball MLB may allow that mix to play up

Can run a little, spot in CF, well built but maybe a little stiff defensively



Nice to see some positive words on Short, who will join Martinez in Iowa as another flyball hitter with a workable approach.


Not trying to start an argument here, but you harp on arm injuries with guys quite a bit. So, there should be quite a bit of difference in those injuries, to you, more than most.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 6:36 am

I feel like EJM is the type of guy the scouts in Moneyball like because he looks good with a shirt off or whatever but he can't actually hit.


Short seems to be a little bit like Paul Dejong, there's a better track record of walks but everything else looks about the sameish. I still prefer we trade him sooner than later before the K problems likely catch up to him and let someone else dream on him/think they can fix it.
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Re: Minor League Musings place holder.

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:17 am

davell wrote:Not trying to start an argument here, but you harp on arm injuries with guys quite a bit. So, there should be quite a bit of difference in those injuries, to you, more than most.


Sorry, what are you saying I say about arm injuries now? Please note that I am legitimately not looking to argue, checking the current at most, and there is no but to follow that.

——

Short and K’s: He’s had a higher than league average K rate in the minors once and it didn’t come until AA while hitting for power, walking, playing SS well enough, running a little, and reaching the upper minors for just his third pro season. He walked more than K’d until High A, where he posted just a ~19% K rate. Yes, there is swing and miss to his game, that was hinted by the batting averages he posted before AA when he was somehow taken more seriously here, but this smells like a situation where the focus is on the one thing he’s not doing.

Personally if Short posted this year’s K rate below AA it would be much more of an issue towards his ML prospects. Since he maintained his wide offensive skillset into the upper minors he should get taken more seriously, particularly given where the system is (overreliant on pitchers in the low minors you have to squint on, mediocre performing pitchers in the uppers outside of a straight reliever in Mekkes).

Also there’s some numbers that suggest potential for growth in Martinez, so I don’t think it’s just those last leg scouts on him either. He certainly wasn’t signed by that type of org
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