Minor League Musings

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CubsWin
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CubsWin » Sat Aug 24, 2019 11:08 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
CubsWin wrote:Funner fact: Marquez got a lot better as the season went along so looking to season long numbers for accurate context on who he is now doesn't tell us much. We could also point out his season long walk numbers, but that would ignore the fact that in his last 5 stats (27.1 innings) he's walked 5 guys while striking out 38.

Is that an accurate picture of who he is going forward? Who knows? But his most recent performances (especially for a 20 year old who is showing development in leaps and bounds) are likely more accurate than what he was doing April-June.

And why you would us RA/9 as a telling stat when it ignores the quality of and situational defense behind him is odd especially for a guy whose FIP and xFIP were better than his ERA this year. But, you do you. Not seeking to change your opinion in any way. Just stating my own.


That is a tough pill to swallow and a pretty irrational premise. I do not get this idea that opting for less info about the same season is more telling than the favorite parts. His season is actually pretty fun if you're less caught up in labeling him a TOR guy for doing well at the A ball levels for a handful starts too, he didn't do anything to hurt himself as a ML prospect. Is it great that the best came at the end? Yep, for both him and the Cubs. Do I think 27.1 IP establishes that he secretly had amazing control the whole time? Nope. Do I think he had bad control in the first place? Don't really care until AA about walk rates unless they're heavily one way or another for alot more than 27.1 innings, and even then look at what else is going on.

The quality and situational defense in...A ball? After taking 3 years to get there? From a supposed future TOR starter? Not for me

It's okay. You don't have to get it. Not that you're trying to when you misrepresent what I wrote and respond to words I didn't write.

But like I said, you do you. It's all good with me that we view this differently.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:17 pm

CubsWin wrote:Not that you're trying to when you misrepresent what I wrote and respond to words I didn't write.


Sounds legit, good talk thanks, but I'm not sure what I'm not getting. Your premise seems to be that the final 27.1 innings are the ones that get to really count plus surely mark a massive leap forward in skills but also it's a mystery moving forward because we can't really really know
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Tryptamine » Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:57 pm

In the majors I'd agree that we'd pretty much ignore a small sample like 27IP, but in the minors where prospects make huge strides fairly often, I'd weight what we've seen lately a lot more heavily.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Aug 24, 2019 11:03 pm

I think it is being weighed heavily. Callis gave him a shot at the postseason top 100. BA called him unquestionably the Cubs' tallest midget/best pitching prospect after the deadline, named him the Cubs' MiL pitcher of the year, and said he has FoR upside potential. The FanGraphs guys still give him a pretty serious shot to start for an A baller. He's got a shot to finally break into one or more top 100s this offseason with a cool calling card in the LHH velocity...These are all big gains. OTOH inviting it to be weighed heavily invites it to be weighed extra heavy by the home fans too

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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:19 pm

BA Hot Sheet:

8. Luis Verdugo, SS, Cubs
Team: Rookie-level Arizona (Arizona)
Age: 18
Why He’s Here: .444/.464/.926 (12-for-28), 9 R, 1 2B, 4 HR, 15 RBIs, 0 BB, 7 SO, 1-for-1 SB

The Scoop: Verdugo earned positive reviews from scouts last year as a 17-year-old in the AZL despite subpar numbers. Verdugo returned to the AZL this year and has shown why scouts were so high on him. His projected power has turned into game power last week with four home runs, and his natural feel for getting the barrel to the baseball has resulted in a .306/.369/.451 slash line this season. As Verdugo begins to figure things out, the $1.2 million signing bonus he was given as an amateur out of Mexico may turn out to be a bargain. (KG)


15. Brailyn Marquez, LHP, Cubs
Team: High Class A Myrtle Beach (Carolina)
Age: 20
Why He’s Here: 1-0, 1.69, 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 SO

The Scoop: Entering the year, Marquez was hard-thrower with interesting upside. With the season nearly done, he’s cemented his rep as the best arm in the Cubs’ system. He regularly gets his heater into triple-digits and couples it with a wicked breaking ball from the left side. He’s been electric since moving to high Class A Myrtle Beach, allowing just eight hits while whiffing 16 over his first 15.1 innings, which span four starts. (JN)
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:01 pm



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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:08 pm

^^ Gl to Estrada

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AFL rosters within the next week? Only three weeks out from OD...Hoping Ademan gets the call and builds some hopefully momentum and trade value ala Hoerner but hopefully better into AA

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Body count on not completely useless stateside pitchers [yet] below AA:

Brailyn Marquez#
Brendon Little#
Javier Assad
Ethan Roberts
Manuel Rodriguez
Peyton Remy

Faustino Carrera#
Cam Sanders
Riley Thompson*
Kohl Franklin
Yovanny Cruz
Joe Nahas
Yunior Perez
Didier Vargas#
Jeremiah Estrada*
Chris Clarke
Ryan Jensen
Michael McAvene*
Hunter Bigge
Chris Allen#
Chris Kamchar
Tanner Dalton
Neils Stone
Tyler Schlaffer
Richard Gallardo
Carlos Ocampo
Luis Rodriguez#
Davidjohn Herz#
Misael Garcia#
Manuel Espinoza
Jorge Remon
Porter Hodge
Benjamin Rodriguez
Jose Albertos
Joel Machado#
The PR kid drafted this year

36, 8 LHs (#), 3 TJs (*), 6 with a serious shot to pitch in AA but only three maybe four might spend the whole year at the level...Slooooowly but surely getting there, especially with the power pitching, to where I think a future first division SP in there
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:53 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/longenhagen/status/1166077343686725632?s=21



Man, they essentially wasted his 2020 by waiting so long. He hasn't pitched in a really long time.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:10 pm

He misses 12-14 months no matter when they have the surgery, not sure what makes most-all of 2020 any more valuable than some other block of 12-14 months
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:32 am

Which MI should Cubs fans be more excited about — Luis Verdugo or Pedro Miguel Martinez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pedro. I know Verdugo has had a good statistical year but I’m not on his bat and think it’s a glove-first SS profile and you hope he hits for some power. Pedro I think can really hit, I’m just less sure where he ends up on defense. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the ... -prospect-
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:32 pm

No Cubs in the final Prospect Hot Sheet But Pedro Martínez was the helium prospect:

HELIUM
Pedro Martinez, 2B, Cubs

The Cubs aggressively assigned Martinez to the short-season Northwest League, and he responded with an excellent half-season. He showed on-base skills in the typically college-heavy league, and the team believes he has the ceiling to produce power and speed as he develops. (JN)
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:34 pm

The final regular season BA top 100 prospects list now has 2 Cubs with Brailyn Marquez cracking the list:

40. Nico Hoerner
96. Brailyn Marquez
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:13 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:The final regular season BA top 100 prospects list now has 2 Cubs with Brailyn Marquez cracking the list:

40. Nico Hoerner
96. Brailyn Marquez

No Amaya??
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:40 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:The final regular season BA top 100 prospects list now has 2 Cubs with Brailyn Marquez cracking the list:

40. Nico Hoerner
96. Brailyn Marquez

No Amaya??


Since I think Amaya is the Cubs best prospect, I definitely think that's an oversight on BA's part.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Tryptamine » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:21 pm

I don't get the Amaya omission at all. A 20 year old catcher with a plus arm who is putting up a 122wRC+ in A+ isn't top 100 while a 21 year old catcher also in A+ with a plus arm and a 104wRC+ is #64 on the list.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:40 pm

Some fun with FanGraphs' new filters for their MiL leaderboards:

Pinango finishes 2nd in wRC+ and wOBA among 17 YO DSLers with 230+ ABs

Brennen Davis finishes behind only Kelenic in wRC+ among all 19 YO or younger A ballers with at least 200 PAs

Hoerner finished 7th among all AA SS 22 or younger with 200+ PAs, he finished 3rd among the 22 YOs

Isaac Paredes finished 2nd in that 19 deep bunch, with like 300 more PAs, and is one of three SSs 20 or younger

Amaya finishes top 5 in wRC+ among all 20 YOs in a A+ league, less fun but not exactly bad is Ademan finishing 19th/5th among SSs

Maybe worth noting how similar Ademan's season was to Royce Lewis'

Pedro Martinez tops among NWL teenagers in wRC+ and wOBA

Pedro Martinez had the third highest wRC+ among 18 YOs in the AZL with 120+ PAs, 8th overall IIRC

All I ask is that he goes ahead and becomes as fun a player as Jose Ramirez...Former DSL Cubs stah Alex Ovalles threw up a 180 wRC+ in his 123 PAs before doing much less in whatever short season league the Rangers are affiliated with

Faustino Carrera finished third in SwStr% among arms 20 or younger at an A ball level with 110+ IP (9), 2nd in K-BB

Carrera was also 4th in K-BB% in the MWL among qualified pitchers, 5th in K%, and the youngest in the top 5 by two+ years for either category

Gallardo's one of two 17 YO pitchers to throw any regular season innings in a non-rookie league, led all 17 YOs at the Rk level with 30+ IP in ERA and runs allowed so that's pleasant
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Bertz » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:35 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:The final regular season BA top 100 prospects list now has 2 Cubs with Brailyn Marquez cracking the list:

40. Nico Hoerner
96. Brailyn Marquez

No Amaya??


Since I think Amaya is the Cubs best prospect, I definitely think that's an oversight on BA's part.


I feel like BA has a lot more oversights the past few years
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:34 pm

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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Tedward » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:03 pm

Bertz wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:No Amaya??


Since I think Amaya is the Cubs best prospect, I definitely think that's an oversight on BA's part.


I feel like BA has a lot more oversights the past few years


Hmmn... Omitting Amaya ... maybe that's why they had us with the 29th overall farm system recently ...
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Bertz » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:18 pm

Tedward wrote:
Bertz wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Since I think Amaya is the Cubs best prospect, I definitely think that's an oversight on BA's part.


I feel like BA has a lot more oversights the past few years


Hmmn... Omitting Amaya ... maybe that's why they had us with the 29th overall farm system recently ...


They also didn't have Chris Morel in their recent top 30, which is ludicrous.

They obviously fell off a lot when Jim Callis left, since he's basically the Mike Trout of minor league stuff. But I feel like they've fallen off even more the last year or three. I tend to think it's because they try to put out way more content than they used to to in order to compete with as MLB.com or Fangraphs, but since they still have a pretty small team it has led to a lot more sloppiness.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:48 pm

Bertz wrote:
Tedward wrote:
Bertz wrote:
I feel like BA has a lot more oversights the past few years


Hmmn... Omitting Amaya ... maybe that's why they had us with the 29th overall farm system recently ...


They also didn't have Chris Morel in their recent top 30, which is ludicrous.

They obviously fell off a lot when Jim Callis left, since he's basically the Mike Trout of minor league stuff. But I feel like they've fallen off even more the last year or three. I tend to think it's because they try to put out way more content than they used to to in order to compete with as MLB.com or Fangraphs, but since they still have a pretty small team it has led to a lot more sloppiness.


They've also lost Jim Manuel and Aaron Fitt (college baseball) in recent years, who are really good.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Bertz » Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:13 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Bertz wrote:
Tedward wrote:
Hmmn... Omitting Amaya ... maybe that's why they had us with the 29th overall farm system recently ...


They also didn't have Chris Morel in their recent top 30, which is ludicrous.

They obviously fell off a lot when Jim Callis left, since he's basically the Mike Trout of minor league stuff. But I feel like they've fallen off even more the last year or three. I tend to think it's because they try to put out way more content than they used to to in order to compete with as MLB.com or Fangraphs, but since they still have a pretty small team it has led to a lot more sloppiness.


They've also lost Jim Manuel and Aaron Fitt (college baseball) in recent years, who are really good.


Good call. Manuel especially touched a lot of the rankings and the handbook.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:15 pm

Talk me down off my Brailyn Marquez hype high. Touching 102 from the left side?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s pretty good! Still mostly fastball at this point, but encouraging that there’s Ks/GBs/velo and he’s performing well enough to be promoted/young for High-A

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a first round type arm, but still in that 45+ waystation where we’ll sort through the borderline top 100 guys in the offseason


That seems like a fair take on Marquez. McDaniel and FanGraphs are on top of these MiL catchers - they're going to be the high guys on Tyler Stephenson and Amaya probably and both those guys are right on the cusp of being dudes

Also also Prospect Live threw up some Daniel Espino video and...I mean if any other org got him I'm glad it was the Indians, but he looked even more like a potential SP than I expected....All he had to last was 2-3 more picks, whatever it was...OTOH I wouldn't trade Richard Gallardo for him straight up sooooo life moves on
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Bertz » Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:21 pm

Nick: Andrew Vaughn’s had a decent pro debut the numbers don’t jump off the page the way I would have expected them to so far. Maybe there’s some fatigue after a long season. What do you make of his first taste of pro ball? For a player whose value is almost entirely tied up in his bat, I would have liked to see a little more this summer.
Keith Law: He’s been playing since Valentine’s Day. I’m sure he and Adley are exhausted.

Not a Cubs Q obviously, but something to keep in mind for college guys their first summer. Like I'm very disappointed in what Strumpf has done since signing, but it's hard to take numbers the summer after the draft too seriously, good or bad.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:50 pm

Bertz wrote:
Nick: Andrew Vaughn’s had a decent pro debut the numbers don’t jump off the page the way I would have expected them to so far. Maybe there’s some fatigue after a long season. What do you make of his first taste of pro ball? For a player whose value is almost entirely tied up in his bat, I would have liked to see a little more this summer.
Keith Law: He’s been playing since Valentine’s Day. I’m sure he and Adley are exhausted.

Not a Cubs Q obviously, but something to keep in mind for college guys their first summer. Like I'm very disappointed in what Strumpf has done since signing, but it's hard to take numbers the summer after the draft too seriously, good or bad.


On one hand, I definitely see the argument there, especially since the conditioning program at the college level should hopefully be lesser than what someone can get in a pro offseason. On the other hand, to use Vaughn as an example, he's played 107 games this year, and every full-season team is between 130-140 right now. Maybe playing regular games over a slightly longer time horizon is more taxing, but that doesn't seem like such a heavy workload that you should expect a guy to be substantially worse than expectations.
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