Minor League Musings

CaliforniaRaisin
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:16 am





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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:19 am

Jensen's got such a crazy arm. Please be a starter by 2022!
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:26 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:Jensen's got such a crazy arm. Please be a starter by 2022!

He has some Rich Harden vibes with his delivery/motions and build
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby David » Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:42 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:Jensen's got such a crazy arm. Please be a starter by 2022!

He has some Rich Harden vibes with his delivery/motions and build


i definitely saw that too
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:17 pm

David wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:Jensen's got such a crazy arm. Please be a starter by 2022!

He has some Rich Harden vibes with his delivery/motions and build


i definitely saw that too


Agreed. Now if only they could get him to throw that disgusting Harden changeup, we have something. Harden never had close to the velo that Jensen has.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby David » Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:32 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
David wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:He has some Rich Harden vibes with his delivery/motions and build


i definitely saw that too


Agreed. Now if only they could get him to throw that disgusting Harden changeup, we have something. Harden never had close to the velo that Jensen has.


Huh?

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Harden's fastball typically reached speeds of 92–96 miles per hour (mph) and on occasion broke 100 mph. Because of the grip he used, his splitter often acted much like a knuckleball because it was difficult to predict what it would do, resulting in it often being referred to as the "ghost pitch".


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Harden

It's hard to find pitchFX max velo data from back then but in his early years with oakland he was averaging 94-95 on his fastball as a starter. i definitely remember him hitting the upper 90s with the cubs.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:08 pm

David wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:
David wrote:
i definitely saw that too


Agreed. Now if only they could get him to throw that disgusting Harden changeup, we have something. Harden never had close to the velo that Jensen has.


Huh?

Image

Harden's fastball typically reached speeds of 92–96 miles per hour (mph) and on occasion broke 100 mph. Because of the grip he used, his splitter often acted much like a knuckleball because it was difficult to predict what it would do, resulting in it often being referred to as the "ghost pitch".


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Harden

It's hard to find pitchFX max velo data from back then but in his early years with oakland he was averaging 94-95 on his fastball as a starter. i definitely remember him hitting the upper 90s with the cubs.


Wow. I remember him sitting 91-93. I guess the shoulder injuries really took their toll.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 18, 2020 1:17 am

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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Hrubes20 » Thu Jun 18, 2020 2:54 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/cubprospects/status/1273406656043462658?s=21


Great to see! I just assumed he had TJS.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 18, 2020 3:12 pm

^^ Secretly I think the Cubs are pretty anti-TJ, as much as they can be. I don't actually have numbers but definitely feels like they're a leader in avoidance under Epstein

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DH to the NL raises the profile of Ronnier Quintero pretty automatically so yay
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:35 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:^^ Secretly I think the Cubs are pretty anti-TJ, as much as they can be. I don't actually have numbers but definitely feels like they're a leader in avoidance under Epstein

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DH to the NL raises the profile of Ronnier Quintero pretty automatically so yay

Targeting a bunch of average stuff and velo pitchers for all those years in the draft may have something to do with it
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 18, 2020 4:51 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Targeting a bunch of average stuff and velo pitchers for all those years in the draft may have something to do with it


Tbf there's not many things more overrated in a vacuum than stuff and velocity, but yeah I could see that being a factor. I could also see that being a choice in an attempt to avoid the surgery and see what improvements those guys can make. It's not like they're not getting an opportunity to try new things and bring in a whole slew of new guys every year

I definitely thing a larger chunk is just knowing there are better, more humane options for many cases and it's best used as a last resort after serious deliberation
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby craig » Thu Jun 18, 2020 6:07 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/cubprospects/status/1273406656043462658?s=21


Very cool to have Manny Rodriguez pitching again. Hopefully he's fully healthy, and there is nothing structurally underlying that is damaged. I watched a couple of his spring training outings, and he looked pretty interesting. Fast fastball, and his curve looked pretty good. Didn't look like a super wildman, although living on a sharp curveball isn't exactly an easy way to be a strike-thrower. But yeah, *IF* he's fine physically, I'm very interested.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:40 pm

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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Regular Show » Thu Jun 18, 2020 11:47 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/davidjohnherz/status/1273711035384565760?s=21


He looks stronger and I think the Cubs cleaned up a few things in his delivery? He still has the crossfire delivery (which I like), but the delivery seems smoother and maybe his landing foot is consistently landing in the same spot now.

Maybe he's just taking it easier during this session and the delivery looks smoother because of that. I was really looking forward to seeing him this year. I know scouts like this kid.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby craig » Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:54 pm

Regular Show wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/davidjohnherz/status/1273711035384565760?s=21


...He still has the crossfire delivery (which I like), .....


Yeah, the crossfire is interesting. Surprised to see that.

What are the pros and cons for that? Better angles against lefty hitters, of course?

You'd think the physics of it would normally not help in terms of weight transfer and force.

But might get a little more body torque and spin?

I imagine tinkering with that the degree of crossfire a little bit in pitch lab might be able to impact the spin axis to variable effect. Perhaps the Cubs have already worked through all of that, and have found this degree of crossfire to be most conducive to spin axis?

Good point that he looks fairly smooth and repeatable here; but that it may simply be because it's practice, and he's not throwing competitive game speed.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Regular Show » Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:54 pm

craig wrote:
Regular Show wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/davidjohnherz/status/1273711035384565760?s=21


...He still has the crossfire delivery (which I like), .....


Yeah, the crossfire is interesting. Surprised to see that.

What are the pros and cons for that? Better angles against lefty hitters, of course?

You'd think the physics of it would normally not help in terms of weight transfer and force.

But might get a little more body torque and spin?

I imagine tinkering with that the degree of crossfire a little bit in pitch lab might be able to impact the spin axis to variable effect. Perhaps the Cubs have already worked through all of that, and have found this degree of crossfire to be most conducive to spin axis?

Good point that he looks fairly smooth and repeatable here; but that it may simply be because it's practice, and he's not throwing competitive game speed.


Well, the crossfire delivery adds deception and creates a unique angle or plane for your pitches. Some pitchers feel it gives their stuff more life and movement as well. The downside is it's hard (or harder) to throw strikes that way and you're kind of throwing across your body...

Some teams and pitching instructors don't like the crossfire delivery and prefer their pitchers be more in-line with the plate. We're not one of those organizations. We saw exactly how effective Jake Arrieta was with a crossfire delivery and we don't mind unorthodox deliveries going back all the way to Dontrelle Willis. Obviously, it's a different regime and different pitching instructors in our system now...

We work with all our pitching prospects on spin efficiency, spin axis for the fastball, pitch design and trying different grips, etc. in the Pitch Lab.

I know DJ Herz was taking part in the strength and conditioning program this offseason and I heard he's added some good weight. His fastball has ticked up a few mph and I believe his curveball is better now. I also know he's worked with Craig Breslow and the Cubs R&D people in the Pitch Lab. There were good reports on him in February.

Not sure what the plan is for him now. Maybe he takes part in the extended AFL later this year? Maybe just complex games in AZ? I don't know, but I'm excited to see how he progresses and I think he's one of the highest-upside prospects in our system.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby craig » Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:20 am

Regular Show wrote:
Well, the crossfire delivery adds deception and creates a unique angle or plane for your pitches. Some pitchers feel it gives their stuff more life and movement as well. The downside is it's hard (or harder) to throw strikes that way and you're kind of throwing across your body...

...I know DJ Herz was taking part in the strength and conditioning program this offseason and I heard he's added some good weight. His fastball has ticked up a few mph and I believe his curveball is better now. I also know he's worked with Craig Breslow and the Cubs R&D people in the Pitch Lab. There were good reports on him in February.

Not sure what the plan is for him now. Maybe he takes part in the extended AFL later this year? Maybe just complex games in AZ? I don't know, but I'm excited to see how he progresses and I think he's one of the highest-upside prospects in our system.


Thanks, show, helpful thoughts.

The notes that he's maybe added some good weight and maybe ticked up a little velocity, that's helpful. Hope so. There were references to 95 at draft, so if he could build up and do that often instead of once a season, that would be great.

Would you envision him getting a shot to start? Or getting used as starter for a while in minors, but just for development purpose, probably always with the expectation to be a relief guy? As a relief guy, I'd think the crossfire would be especially useful for lefty-left stuff.

He got paid same as 3rd round McAvene, tied for 3rd highest in the Cubs draft.

I thought it interesting that Fangraph, Longenhagen rated Schlaffer ahead of Herz, even though Schlaffer got only half of Herz's bonus. Herez had gotten much more enthusiastic buzz at time of draft. Hopefully both guys develop really well and both turn into big-league assets.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:26 pm

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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:41 pm

Some more ballyhooed arms in the system I think secretly < Sanders:

Marquez
Franklin
Miller
Thompson
Thompson
Alzolay
Estrada
Cruz
B. Rodriguez
Clarke
Little

Sanders showed 4 pitches in games last year, was up to 98...
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby Bertz » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:46 am

Keith Law had an article in The Athletic today about how teams are going to develop minor leaguers this year. Basically what you expect (heavy focus on mechanics and conditioning, lots of Zoom calls), but thought this was interesting re: the 60 man roster

Another NL exec speculated that “almost every team’s top 10 prospects will be on a satellite roster. The Orioles, maybe it’ll be whoever they think are their 20 best non-roster prospects. There will be guys from this draft who are on our satellite roster.” He guessed that most or all first-round picks from this year’s draft could end up on these taxi squads to try to get those players some reps and allow coaches to get their first live looks at the players post-draft.
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:59 pm

Brennen Davis gets the best of Cory Abbott.





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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:11 am

Alzolay vs Davis:

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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:30 pm



Good stuff, + .00000000000000000000000000008888 credibilities awarded to myself for Roberts' velocity gains...He also recorded a cutter that registered a spin rate of 3,331 which is insane
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Re: Minor League Musings

Postby craig » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:33 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:...
Good stuff, + .00000000000000000000000000008888 credibilities awarded to myself for Roberts' velocity gains...He also recorded a cutter that registered a spin rate of 3,331 which is insane


Dumb question, but what kind of "velocity gains" has he supposedly accomplished? Was there a velocity reading alleged from this single pitch? I didn't read it, but maybe there was? Or are velocities reported from some other inputs?

I'm a little cautious about reading too much into video clips. Guys throwing all out for velocity, you're going to occasionally have a good velocity reading. May not have much to do with actual pitching, where perhaps you want to throw strikes and perhaps locate. If you throw and video-record a thousand pitches, probably by luck one of them is going to both be high-end velocity AND a strike at the same time.

Doesn't mean you can locate strikes consistently with anything close to that kind of velocity.....
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